公司报告 | 公司深度研究 圣农发展（002299） 证券研究报告 全产业链一体化白鸡龙头，多点开花有望迎高速成长！ 1、白羽鸡行业本轮周期特点？有何边际变化？ 2、圣农发展：全产业链持续精进，多点铸就超额收益！ 投资建议：重视公司业绩弹性和估值相对低位！我们预计公司 2024-2026 年营业 收入 201.33/ 232.25/ 263.59 亿元，归母净利润 7.36/ 17.70/ 23.05 亿元；对应 EPS 为 0.59/ 1.42/ 1.85 元，当前股价对应 25-26 年 PE 为 10.6/ 8.1x。鉴于祖代引种持 续受限，叠加促消费政策提振，预计行业后续有望景气上行；看好公司作为国内 白鸡龙头，全产业链布局和综合成本等优势显著，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：鸡肉价格波动风险，消费提振不及预期，食品 C 端开拓不及预期，大 宗农产品价格波动，禽流感疫病风险，新品研发风险。 | 财务数据和估值 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 16,817 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Saint Farm Development [5][3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the white feather chicken industry, with a fully integrated supply chain that is expected to drive significant growth [15][3]. - The report forecasts revenue growth from 201.33 billion CNY in 2024 to 263.59 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit expected to rise from 7.36 billion CNY to 23.05 billion CNY during the same period [3][4]. - The company benefits from a low valuation relative to its earnings potential, with a projected PE ratio of 10.6x for 2025 and 8.1x for 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Saint Farm Development, established in 1999 and listed in 2009, is a fully integrated leader in the white feather chicken industry, covering all aspects from feed processing to meat processing [15][16]. - The company has a production capacity exceeding 700 million chickens and has established partnerships with major fast-food chains like KFC and McDonald's [15][16]. Industry Analysis - The white feather chicken industry has seen a trend towards increased scale and concentration, with the market share of the top 10 companies expected to rise from 45.4% in 2022 to 47.3% in 2023 [39][40]. - The industry has been in a prolonged downturn since 2019, with a significant impact from the COVID-19 pandemic and rising feed costs, leading to a micro-profit state [41][44]. Competitive Advantages - The company is expanding its production capacity through acquisitions, aiming for a target of 1 billion chickens [31][3]. - The food processing segment has been a focus, with revenue from this area increasing from 21.3% in 2017 to 35.1% in 2024, enhancing the company's resilience against industry cycles [31][32]. Financial Analysis - The company reported a revenue of 18.49 billion CNY in 2023, a 9.93% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 664.27 million CNY, reflecting a 61.66% increase [4][28]. - The gross margin for the food processing segment is significantly higher than that of raw chicken products, providing a buffer against market volatility [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [39]. Core Views - The SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, rising by 1.72% from February 28, 2025, to March 13, 2025, exceeding the index by approximately 3.15 percentage points [7][8]. - Most sub-sectors recorded positive returns during the same period, with animal health, feed, aquaculture, and fishery sectors increasing by 4.45%, 3.22%, 2.45%, and 0.99% respectively, while agricultural product processing and planting sectors saw declines of 0.5% and 2.11% [8][9]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the SW agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is approximately 2.47 times, indicating a recent recovery and positioning at about 54.6% of the historical valuation center since 2006, which is considered historically low [12]. Industry Key Data - **Pig Farming**: The average price of external three yuan pigs fluctuated from 14.57 CNY/kg to 14.67 CNY/kg during the reporting period. The cost of corn was 2263.04 CNY/ton, showing an upward trend, while soybean meal was priced at 3470 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight decline. The profit for self-bred pigs was 35.15 CNY/head, showing a slight increase, while the profit for purchased piglets was -34.44 CNY/head, indicating a decrease [15][16][19]. - **Poultry Farming**: The average price of broiler chicks rose by 21.4% to 2.79 CNY/chick, while the average price of layer chicks fell by 0.6% to 4.3 CNY/chick. The average price of white feather broilers increased by 14.5% to 7.11 CNY/kg, with a profit of -0.51 CNY/chick, which is an improvement compared to the previous period [21][25]. - **Aquaculture**: The average wholesale price for crucian carp and carp remained stable at 19.66 CNY/kg and 14.21 CNY/kg respectively as of March 13, 2025 [27]. Company Insights - **Muyuan Foods (牧原股份)**: The company is recognized as a leading domestic pig farming enterprise with cost advantages and substantial cash reserves, expected to maintain its leading position [40]. - **Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份)**: The company is expanding its pig production capacity steadily and has strong cost control capabilities, maintaining its leading position in the yellow feather chicken business [40]. - **Haid Group (海大集团)**: The company is a leading player in the feed industry, with market share expected to continue to grow [40]. - **Yisheng (益生股份)**: The company is a leading enterprise in the white feather chicken breeding sector [40].

Investment Rating - The report provides a buy rating for Hai Da Group (002311.SZ) with an "A" rating, and a buy rating for Sheng Nong Development (002299.SZ) and Wen's Shares (300498.SZ) with a "B" rating. Other companies like Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) and Zhong Chong Shares (002891.SZ) are rated as "A" for increase, while Tang Ren Shen (002567.SZ), Shen Nong Group (605296.SH), Ju Xing Nong Mu (603477.SH), and New Hope (000876.SZ) are rated as "B" for increase [1]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is experiencing a seasonal decline in pig prices, yet they remain within a profitable range. The report indicates that the pig price in the off-season is still maintaining profitability [2][4]. - The report highlights that the pig farming industry is entering a profitability cycle starting from Q2 2024, despite the average debt ratio still needing to decrease significantly. The market's expectations regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability may be overly pessimistic [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a recovery in the feed industry due to lower raw material prices and improving breeding conditions, particularly for Hai Da Group, which is expected to see an upward trend in its operational fundamentals [5]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - As of March 7, 2025, the average prices for external three yuan pigs in Sichuan, Guangdong, and Henan are 14.85, 15.32, and 14.39 yuan per kilogram, reflecting increases of 0.07%, 0.99%, and 0.35% respectively. The average pork price is 20.81 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.24% [3][23]. - The average wholesale price for piglets is 28.00 yuan per kilogram, up by 2.75%, while the average price for two-yuan sows remains stable at 32.47 yuan per kilogram [3][23]. Poultry Farming - The weekly price for white feather broiler chickens is 6.59 yuan per kilogram, up by 8.03%, and the price for broiler chicks is 2.54 yuan per chick, up by 10.92%. However, the breeding profit is negative at -1.90 yuan per chick [31]. Feed Processing - The total industrial feed production in 2024 is reported at 31,503.1 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% from the previous year. The production of pig feed is 14,391.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [34]. Market Performance - For the week of March 3 to March 9, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.39%, while the agricultural sector rose by 1.04%, ranking 20th among sectors. The top-performing sub-industries include food and feed additives, animal health, fruit and vegetable processing, pig farming, and chicken farming [2][17].

证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-008 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏。 一、2025 年 2 月份销售情况 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 2 月实现销售收入 11.44 亿元，较去年同期增长 10.19%，较上月环比变动-20.51%。其中，家禽饲 养加工板块鸡肉销售收入为 8.36 亿元，较去年同期增长 36.17%，较上月环比变 动-10.80%；深加工肉制品板块销售收入为 5.02 亿元，较去年同期变动-9.55%， 较上月环比变动-30.69%。 销量方面，2 月份家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售数量为 8.55 万吨，较去年同 期增长 51.41%，较上月环比变动-8.71%；深加工肉制品板块产品销售数量为 2.55 万吨，较去年同期增长 4.38%，较上月环比变动-28.36%。 二、说明 受春节假期影响，公司 2 月份实际生产天数较去年同期有所增加，导致屠宰 量等相关数据同比、环比均有所变动，综合来看，公司 1-2 月累计屠宰量同比略 微增长。 在此背景下，公司通过持续落实精细化成 ...

受春节假期影响，公司2月份实际生产天数较去年同期有所增加，导致屠宰量等相关数据同比、环比均 有所变动，综合来看，公司1—2月累计屠宰量同比略微增长。 销量方面，2月份家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售数量为8.55万吨，较去年同期增长51.41%，较上月环比变 动-8.71%；深加工肉制品板块产品销售数量为2.55万吨，较去年同期增长4.38%，较上月环比变 动-28.36%。 人民财讯3月10日电，圣农发展(002299)3月10日晚间公告，公司2025年2月实现销售收入11.44亿元，较 去年同期增长10.19%，较上月环比变动-20.51%。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Insights - The pig sector shows slight inertia growth in breeding stock, highlighting the undervaluation and expectation gap in the sector [3][16] - The poultry sector emphasizes the fundamentals of white chickens and the marginal changes in breeding imports [17][18] - The feed sector recommends Hai Da Group due to its fundamental turning point and relatively low valuation [21] - The pet sector sees a rise in domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports [25][26] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - As of March 8, the national average pig price is 14.68 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a profit of approximately 154 CNY per head for self-breeding farms [1][15] - The supply side shows an average market weight of 127.06 kg for pigs, with a 4.23% share of pigs over 150 kg, indicating a potential seasonal decline in prices due to weak demand [2][15] - The sector is characterized by low valuations, with major companies like Muyuan and Wens below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting a historical low valuation [3][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken sector faces uncertainty in breeding imports due to outbreaks of avian influenza, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][17] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with the average price for live chickens in Shandong at 3.30 CNY per bird, supported by positive restocking sentiment [4][18] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and attention to Yisheng and Minhe [5][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its market share increase and expected improvement in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [21] - Prices for various aquatic products have shown significant increases, indicating a potential recovery in the aquaculture sector [21] Pet Sector - Domestic brands like Guibao Pet are expanding their market share through independent brand operations, targeting different price segments [25][26] - Pet food exports have seen a substantial increase, with a year-on-year growth of 26% in volume and 22% in value, reflecting a robust market [25][26] Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing agricultural productivity and competitiveness among leading seed companies [23][24] - The low-altitude economy is projected to grow significantly, with policies supporting the development of smart agriculture and drone applications [23][24]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Maintain Increase" [4] Core Views - Recent white chicken prices have rebounded after a prolonged decline, with meat chicken prices at 6.59 yuan/kg, up 8% week-on-week, and chicken chick prices at 2.54 yuan/chick, up 10.9% week-on-week. This price recovery is attributed to a supply shortage due to seasonal factors and increased slaughter profits [10][12] - In the pig farming sector, the average price for lean pigs is 14.44 yuan/kg, down 0.6% from the previous week, indicating a continued low valuation in the market. The focus is on leading companies with cost-effectiveness and growth potential [12][14] - The planting and agricultural products sector is expected to see growth potential following the approval of genetically modified varieties for commercial sales, which will gradually confirm the growth and realization timeline for industry companies [12] Summary by Sections Livestock Farming - The average price for lean pigs is 14.44 yuan/kg, down 0.6% week-on-week, with the average wholesale price for pork at 20.81 yuan/kg, down 0.2% [14][15] - In poultry farming, the average price for white feathered meat chickens is 6.59 yuan/kg, up 8% week-on-week, while the average price for chicken products is 8.97 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [12][27] - The profit for self-bred pigs is 33.56 yuan/head, down 9.52 yuan/head, while the profit for purchased piglets is -12.52 yuan/head, down 21.91 yuan/head [16][33] Agricultural Products - The domestic corn spot price is 2229.12 yuan/ton, up 0.5% week-on-week, while the soybean spot price is 3856.79 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [42][56] - The average price for domestic wheat is 2424.61 yuan/ton, down 0.4% week-on-week, and the average price for domestic soybean meal is 3648.57 yuan/ton, down 2.2% [45][63] Industry Recommendations - Companies to watch in the white feathered chicken sector include Shengnong Development, Hefeng Co., and Xiantan Co. due to their complete industry chain [11][12] - In the pig farming sector, focus on leading companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wen's Foodstuffs, and Tangrenshen for their cost-effectiveness and growth potential [12]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [11] Core Views - The pig sector shows a divergence between pig prices and piglet prices, with pig prices rebounding while piglet prices continue to decline. The average price of pigs is 14.87 CNY/kg, up 1.09% from last week, with an average profit of approximately 225 CNY per head for self-breeding and self-raising operations [1][15] - The poultry sector is experiencing low valuations and elasticity, particularly in the white chicken segment, where supply pressures are exacerbated by restrictions on overseas breeding imports due to avian influenza outbreaks [3][17] - The feed sector is recommended for investment due to a fundamental turning point and relatively low valuations, with Hai Da Group highlighted as a key player [5][21] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Pig prices have rebounded, with an average price of 14.87 CNY/kg as of February 22, 2025, while piglet prices are declining, indicating a potential short-term weakness in piglet pricing [1][15] - Supply remains low with an average slaughter weight of 125.68 kg, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg is 4.11% [1][15] - The sector is considered undervalued, with major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs having head valuations below 2000 CNY per head, suggesting potential for recovery [2][16] Poultry Sector - The white chicken segment faces supply pressure due to halted overseas breeding imports, leading to a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [3][17] - Chicken prices have stabilized, with the average price for live chickens at 2.80 CNY per bird, and expectations for price recovery as processing plants resume operations [3][17] - Investment recommendations include Shengnong Development and other companies in the poultry sector due to anticipated demand recovery [4][18] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key investment opportunity due to improving market conditions in aquaculture feed after a prolonged downturn [5][21] - The prices of various aquatic products have shown a mixed trend, with some prices increasing due to supply constraints [5][21] Seed and Agricultural Technology - The application of genetically modified technology is expected to accelerate, enhancing the competitiveness of leading seed companies [7][23] - The low-altitude economy is identified as a growth area, with significant potential for agricultural applications of drones [7][23] Pet Sector - Domestic pet brands are rapidly growing, with significant sales increases in pet food, indicating a robust market for local brands [9][25] - Pet food exports have also seen substantial growth, reflecting a healthy export market [9][25] - Recommended companies in the pet sector include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. due to their strong market positions [9][27]

证券代码：002299 证券简称：圣农发展 公告编号：2025-007 福建圣农发展股份有限公司 2025 年 1 月份销售情况简报 本公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容真实、准确和完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈 述或者重大遗漏。 一、2025 年 1 月份销售情况 受春节假期影响，公司 1 月份实际生产天数较去年同期有所减少，导致屠宰 量等相关数据同比、环比均有所变动，预计 1、2 月份累计的屠宰量等相关数据 将恢复至正常水平。 在此背景下，公司通过持续落实精细化成本管控措施，叠加生产效率的系统 性优化，推动 1 月份综合造肉成本同比改善。同时，通过优质的服务以及过硬的 产品力，公司在行业内持续保持较强的竞争力。 三、特别提示 1、家禽饲养加工板块鸡肉销售收入及销售数量为抵消前数据。 2、上述财务数据均未经审计，可能与公司定期报告披露的数据存在一定差 异，仅作为阶段性财务数据供投资者参考，敬请广大投资者注意投资风险。 特此公告。 福建圣农发展股份有限公司 福建圣农发展股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）2025 年 1 月实现销售收入 14.39 亿元，较去年同期变动-13.26%，较上月环比变动-14.99%。 ...