Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in China is expected to see a significant increase in parcel volume and revenue, with a focus on the "anti-involution" trend that is easing competitive pressures and potentially improving profitability in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - In September 2025, the national express delivery parcel volume reached 16.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, while the total volume from January to September was 145.08 billion, up 17.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The express delivery industry revenue in September 2025 increased by 7.2% year-on-year, although the average revenue per parcel decreased by 4.9%. For the first nine months, revenue grew by 8.9% year-on-year, with a 7.1% decline in average revenue per parcel [4][5]. Group 2: E-commerce Express Delivery - Major e-commerce express delivery companies such as YTO, Yunda, and Shentong reported parcel volume growth in September 2025 of 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5% respectively, with year-to-date growth rates of 19.4%, 13.0%, and 17.1% [2][3]. - The average revenue per parcel for YTO, Yunda, and Shentong in September 2025 showed slight increases, while their year-to-date figures reflected declines of 4.9%, 5.7%, and 2.0% respectively [4][5]. Group 3: Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is increasing, with the CR8 (concentration ratio of the top 8 companies) reaching 86.9% in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year [3]. - In Q3 2025, the market shares of leading companies such as YTO, Yunda, Shentong, and Jitu were 15.6%, 13.0%, 13.2%, and 11.3% respectively, with slight changes compared to Q2 [3]. Group 4: Pricing Trends - The decline in average revenue per parcel has narrowed in September 2025, indicating a reduction in price competition due to the "anti-involution" measures. This trend is expected to continue, promoting healthier competition in the long term [4][5]. - The average revenue per parcel for SF Express in September 2025 decreased by 13.3%, with a year-to-date decline of 13.0% [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to alleviate competitive pressures, with expectations for profitability recovery in e-commerce express delivery in the latter half of the year. Future profitability will depend on the sustainability of price increases [6]. - Companies with strong performance growth, such as SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda, are recommended for investment [6].

Core Insights - Public funds have disclosed their top ten holdings for Q3 2025, with CATL (宁德时代) returning as the largest holding, followed by Tencent and several other tech stocks [1][2] Group 1: Top Holdings - CATL regained its position as the largest holding among public funds with a market value of 75.881 billion yuan [2] - Tencent Holdings dropped to the second position with a market value of 69.938 billion yuan [2] - New entrants to the top ten holdings include Zhongji Xuchuang and Industrial Fulian, while Midea Group and Xiaomi Group exited the list [1][2] Group 2: Increased Holdings - The most significant increases in holdings for Q3 were seen in Zhongji Xuchuang and New Yisheng, with increases of 40.174 billion yuan and 36.930 billion yuan, respectively [2] - Industrial Fulian, Alibaba-W, and CATL also saw substantial increases, each exceeding 20 billion yuan [2] Group 3: Decreased Holdings - Xiaomi Group was the most significantly reduced holding, with a decrease of 10.834 billion yuan [3] - Other notable reductions included Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, and SF Express, each with reductions exceeding 7 billion yuan [3][5] Group 4: Sector Performance - The technology sector performed exceptionally well in Q3, with many of the top increased holdings being tech stocks, particularly in AI-related fields [4] - Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Industrial Fulian saw stock price increases of over 170%, 180%, and 210%, respectively [4] Group 5: Fund Manager Insights - Fund managers express optimism about the technology sector, particularly regarding AI and its related investment opportunities [8] - There is a cautious approach towards the long-term outlook of tech stocks due to uncertainties in competition and technology evolution [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The price decline in the express delivery sector has narrowed, and the "anti-involution" efforts are stronger than expected, leading to a temporary easing of competitive pressure. The report remains optimistic about the performance growth of leading express delivery companies and the valuation recovery opportunities in e-commerce logistics [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In September 2025, the national express delivery volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%. The industry revenue was 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year, with a single ticket revenue of 7.55 yuan, down 4.9% year-on-year [7][36]. Company Performance - SF Express showed remarkable growth with a business volume increase of 31.81% year-on-year in September 2025. For the first nine months of 2025, its business volume grew by 28.3% [4][28]. Other major players like YTO, Yunda, and Shentong also reported year-on-year increases in business volume of 13.6%, 3.6%, and 9.5%, respectively [4][28]. Market Concentration - The market concentration in the express delivery industry continues to rise, with the CR8 index reaching 86.9 in the first nine months of 2025, an increase of 1.7 compared to the previous year [24][4]. The market shares of leading companies such as SF Express, YTO, Yunda, and Shentong have shown a steady increase in Q3 2025 [29][4]. Pricing Trends - The report indicates that the price decline in the express delivery sector has slowed down, with the industry revenue growth outpacing the decline in single ticket revenue. The single ticket revenue for the industry decreased by 4.9% year-on-year in September 2025, reflecting a moderation in price competition [4][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the leading express delivery companies with confirmed performance growth and the potential for valuation recovery in e-commerce logistics. It maintains an "Overweight" rating for SF Express and recommends monitoring regulatory efforts from the postal administration [4][51].

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant increase in the allocation of active equity funds, with a rise in overall positions and specific sector allocations, reflecting a strategic shift towards technology and growth sectors [2]. Fund Positioning - Active equity funds' overall position increased by 1.46 percentage points from Q2 to 87.43%, with ordinary stock funds, mixed equity funds, and flexible allocation funds rising by 0.93, 1.33, and 1.87 percentage points respectively [2]. - The allocation to the ChiNext board saw a notable increase of 4.70 percentage points to 23.7%, while the STAR Market allocation grew by 2.12 percentage points to 17.45%. Conversely, the main board allocation decreased by 6.71 percentage points to 58.51% [2]. Sector Allocation - The sectors with the highest increases in allocation include electronics (+6.77 percentage points), telecommunications (+3.96 percentage points), and electric equipment (+2.42 percentage points), indicating a focus on technology growth [2]. - The sectors with the largest reductions in allocation are banking (-3.05 percentage points), food and beverage (-1.81 percentage points), and home appliances (-1.62 percentage points) [2]. Industry Insights - In terms of secondary industries, the top increases were seen in communication equipment (+4.45 percentage points), consumer electronics (+3.09 percentage points), and semiconductors (+2.34 percentage points). The largest reductions were in white goods (-1.67 percentage points), city commercial banks (-1.45 percentage points), and liquor (-1.02 percentage points) [2]. - The individual stocks with the most significant increases in positions include Zhongji Xuchuang, Industrial Fulian, Xinyisheng, Hanwujing, and Luxshare Precision, with increases of 2.17, 2.03, 1.92, 0.91, and 0.63 percentage points respectively. The stocks with the largest decreases include Midea Group, China Merchants Bank, SF Express, Kweichow Moutai, and Gree Electric [2]. Hong Kong Market - In the Hong Kong market, the active equity fund's position slightly decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 19.09%. The sectors with increased allocations include healthcare and materials, while reductions were seen in telecommunications, finance, and energy [2]. - The stocks with the most significant increases in positions in the Hong Kong market are Alibaba, SMIC, and Tencent, while Xiaomi, Meituan, and Pop Mart saw notable reductions [2].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Views - Crude oil freight rates have decreased month-on-month, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The China Import Crude Oil Comprehensive Index (CTFI) reported 1632.26 points on October 23, down 8.9% from October 16. The VLCC market remains cautious due to the implementation of special port fees between China and the US, leading to a weak sentiment among shipowners [2][13] - Guangdong Province has released a high-quality development plan for the low-altitude economy, aiming to establish itself as a national leader in this sector. The civil aviation industry has shown steady growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total transport turnover of 1220.3 billion ton-kilometers, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [2][15][16] - In Shenzhen, the monthly delivery volume of autonomous vehicles has surpassed one million, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in express delivery volume in September. The postal industry reported a total business income of 152.57 billion yuan in September, up 6.8% year-on-year [2][22][24] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, while container shipping rates on long-distance routes have increased. The CTFI reported a decrease of 8.9% [2][13] - Guangdong's low-altitude economy development plan aims to optimize airspace management and promote low-altitude logistics [15][16] - Shenzhen's autonomous vehicle delivery volume has exceeded one million, with express delivery volume growing by 12.7% [22][24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year. The Shanghai outbound air freight price index has shown a month-on-month increase of 6.9% [26] - Domestic cargo flights have increased by 3.05% year-on-year, while international flights have risen by 15.86% [32] - The express delivery business volume in September increased by 12.7% year-on-year, with total business income reaching 127.37 billion yuan [50][54] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Pay attention to the low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Consider investment opportunities in the highway and railway sectors, recommending companies like Gansu Expressway and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway [4] - Explore investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda Express [4]

Group 1 - The express delivery industry is expected to maintain resilient growth, with a projected business volume of 128.2 billion pieces in August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.8% [2][9] - The trend of small parcelization continues, driven by consumer preferences for cost-effective products, leading to increased repurchase frequency and smaller package sizes [9][41] - The regulatory environment has led to a slowdown in price competition, with the average revenue per delivery in the express industry decreasing by 7.3% year-on-year to 7.48 yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a significant improvement from a 12.3% decline at the end of 2024 [3][13] Group 2 - The express delivery sector is witnessing a shift towards value competition due to the implementation of new social security regulations, which are expected to increase operational costs in the short term but promote long-term industry transformation [4][72] - The concentration of market share among leading companies has increased, with the top six firms maintaining an 80% market share in 2025, indicating a trend of market differentiation among major players [20][26] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles is expected to reduce last-mile delivery costs significantly, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express investing heavily in this technology [70][65] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of e-commerce express delivery leaders, with a focus on companies like SF Express, YTO Express, ZTO Express, and JD Logistics, as they are expected to benefit from improved earnings visibility [77][78] - The report highlights that the profitability of express delivery companies will depend on the sustainability of price increases, with potential for significant profit recovery in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [60][62] - The report suggests that the ongoing trend of small parcelization and the rise of new consumption models will continue to support steady growth in delivery volumes [41][77]

Core Insights - The logistics sector experienced a 1.0% increase on October 27, with Xiamen Xiangyu leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Stock Performance - Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) closed at 7.77, up 3.74% with a trading volume of 327,600 shares and a turnover of 252 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include: - Ruimaotong (600180) at 4.87, up 2.96% [1] - Shentong Express (002468) at 15.97, up 2.57% [1] - ST Haichin (600753) at 7.40, up 2.49% [1] - Debon Logistics (603056) at 15.56, up 1.97% [1] - SF Holding (002352) at 40.58, up 1.76% with a turnover of 1.489 billion yuan [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The logistics sector saw a net inflow of 158 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 64.2 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant fund flows include: - Wuchan Zhongda (600704) with a net inflow of 86.62 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - SF Holding (002352) with a net inflow of 66.92 million yuan from institutional investors [3] - Shentong Express (002468) with a net inflow of 61.20 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry shows resilient demand, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7% in September, indicating a steady expansion of the market [4][25] - The logistics sector is witnessing technological advancements, with JD Logistics planning to procure 3 million robots and 100,000 unmanned vehicles over the next five years, which may enhance supply chain efficiency [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from geopolitical factors and trade negotiations, potentially increasing demand for oil transportation and bulk shipping [6][10] - The aviation sector is experiencing growth, with a 10.8% increase in international flight volumes for the upcoming winter-spring season, reflecting a recovery in air travel [10][12] Summary by Sections Express Delivery - In September 2025, the express delivery business volume reached 16.88 billion pieces, a 12.7% year-on-year increase, with revenue of 127.37 billion yuan, up 7.2% [4][25] - Major players like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost control, with significant growth potential [14] Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market may benefit from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, potentially increasing long-distance shipping demand [6] - The shipping market is expected to see a recovery driven by environmental regulations and geopolitical stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like China Shipping and COSCO [14][15] Aviation - The aviation industry is projected to maintain steady growth, with a 10.3% increase in total transport turnover and a 5.2% rise in passenger transport volume in the first three quarters of 2025 [10] - Airbus has opened a new A320 assembly line in Tianjin, marking a significant milestone in Sino-European cooperation [9] Road and Rail - National logistics operations are running smoothly, with rail freight increasing by 2.33% and highway freight truck traffic rising by 24.72% [13] - Strategic partnerships in the highway sector are being formed to enhance service offerings and operational efficiency [13] Overall Market Performance - From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the transportation sector index increased by 1.12%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.88% [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is experiencing a significant recovery in performance due to a rise in single-package prices and an increase in business volume during the peak season, driven by the "anti-involution" trend in the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Business Volume - In September, the express delivery industry saw a year-on-year business volume growth of 12.7%, with SF Express leading at 31.81% [2]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the total express delivery volume reached 1,450.8 billion packages, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% [2]. - The business volume for major companies in September was as follows: YTO Express 2.627 billion packages, Shentong Express 2.187 billion packages, Yunda Express 2.110 billion packages, and SF Express 1.504 billion packages [2]. Group 2: Market Share - Cumulative market share from January to September shows YTO Express at 15.6%, Yunda Express at 13.2%, Shentong Express at 13.0%, and SF Express at 8.3%, with SF Express gaining 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Pricing Situation - The express delivery industry experienced a significant month-on-month price increase of 2.4% in September, with an average price of 7.55 yuan per package, down 4.9% year-on-year [4]. - For major companies in September, the average prices were: YTO Express 2.21 yuan, Yunda Express 2.02 yuan, Shentong Express 2.12 yuan, and SF Express 13.87 yuan [4]. - Cumulatively, from January to September, the average price for SF Express was 13.83 yuan, down 13.00% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The express delivery industry continues to show growth potential, with the "anti-involution" price increases proving effective, and attention should be paid to the upcoming peak season's volume and pricing dynamics [5]. - The expansion of e-commerce and the rise of live-streaming commerce are expected to further enhance the penetration rate of online shopping, contributing to the growth of the express delivery sector [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant effects of price increases in the express delivery industry due to the "anti-involution" trend, with a focus on profit recovery during the peak season [2][6] - The express delivery business volume grew by 12.7% year-on-year in September, with cumulative growth of 17.2% from January to September [3][13] - The average price per delivery increased by 2.4% month-on-month in September, indicating a recovery in pricing power within the industry [4][23] Summary by Sections Industry Situation - In September, the express delivery business volume reached approximately 168.8 billion pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The cumulative retail sales of physical goods through online shopping amounted to 9.15 trillion yuan, reflecting a 6.5% year-on-year increase [3][13] - The cumulative online shopping penetration rate is about 25.0%, with a slight decline of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [3][13] Company Performance - In September, SF Express led the business volume growth with a 31.81% increase, followed by YTO Express at 13.64%, Shentong Express at 9.46%, and Yunda Express at 3.63% [4][25] - Cumulatively from January to September, SF Express achieved a business volume of 121 billion pieces, with a growth rate of 28.34%, while YTO, Yunda, and Shentong had growth rates of 19.40%, 12.98%, and 17.08% respectively [4][25] Pricing Situation - The average price per delivery in the express delivery industry was 7.55 yuan in September, down 4.9% year-on-year but up 2.4% month-on-month. The cumulative average price from January to September was 7.48 yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [4][23] - Individual company pricing in September showed YTO at 2.21 yuan, Yunda at 2.02 yuan, Shentong at 2.12 yuan, and SF Express at 13.87 yuan, with SF experiencing a year-on-year decline of 13.31% [5][26] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies benefiting from the "anti-involution" trend, particularly Zhongtong Express and YTO Express, while keeping an eye on Yunda and Shentong [7][41] - For direct-operated models, SF Express is recommended due to its potential for significant performance recovery and growth in international business [7][41]