晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 2026 年 1 月 13 日 行业研究 【互联网传媒】漫剧接棒真人短剧，海量 IP 价值待释放——短剧、漫剧市场专题报 告(买入) 2026 年，随着可灵等 AI 视频模型的成熟应用，漫剧凭借低成本、高产能和强视觉冲 击力，正接棒真人短剧成为平台内容增量的主力军。市场规模方面，漫剧行业在 2025 年已呈现强势增长态势，预计 2026 年市场规模将维持高速增长，使得海量 IP 价值得 以释放建议关注行业产能释放，推荐阅文集团，关注中文在线、掌阅科技。维持互联 网传媒行业"买入"评级。 【房地产】【光大地产】核心城市楼市成交高频跟踪 20260112(增持) 截至 2026 年 1 月 11 日(由于基数变动，年初同比数据波动性较大为正常情况)， 20 城新房：累计成交 1.3 万套(-50.4%)；北京 822 套(-30%)、上海 1958 套(-41%)、深 圳 431 套(-78%)； 10 城二手房：累计成交 2.4 万套(-26.2%)；北京 3427 套(-38%)、 上海 7143 套(-13%)、深圳 1497 套(-37%)。 公司研究 【电子】国 ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is benefiting from a global upcycle, with significant growth expected through 2026, particularly in semiconductor equipment and materials [1][2] - The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) reported that global semiconductor sales reached $75.3 billion in November 2025, marking a 3.5% increase from October and a 29.8% increase year-over-year [1][10] - China's semiconductor sales amounted to $20.23 billion in November 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 22.9% [1][10] Group 2 - The demand for memory products, particularly DRAM and NAND Flash, is on the rise, with contract prices increasing significantly; DRAM contract prices are expected to rise by 55-60% in Q1 2026 [1][7] - Domestic storage testing and packaging factories are experiencing high order volumes, leading to increased capacity utilization and a price hike of approximately 30% [1][2] - The semiconductor materials market is projected to grow to $70 billion globally by 2025, with a 6% year-over-year increase, while China's key materials market is expected to reach 174.1 billion yuan, growing by 21.1% [2][25] Group 3 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen a net inflow of nearly 200 million yuan over the last three trading days, with a one-year index increase of 97.33% [1][3] - The top ten holdings in the semiconductor equipment index focus on leading companies in the sector, with a concentration of nearly 80% [3][19] - The domestic semiconductor industry is expected to accelerate the expansion of production capacity, particularly in storage wafer manufacturing, driven by strong demand from AI applications [2][24]

Core Insights - Northbound capital has shown significant growth in trading activity and investment preferences, particularly favoring hard technology and non-ferrous metals sectors in 2025 [1][2][3][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - By the end of 2025, northbound capital held nearly 1.08 trillion shares of A-shares, with a market value surpassing 2.59 trillion yuan, marking a nearly 20% increase from the previous year [2]. - The total trading volume of northbound capital exceeded 50.33 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a more than 40% increase year-on-year, contributing nearly 6% to the overall A-share market trading volume [3]. - The trading activity of northbound capital reached new heights, with 33 trading days exceeding 300 billion yuan, 27 of which occurred in 2025 [3]. Group 2: ETF Trading - Northbound capital's ETF trading volume surpassed 810 billion yuan in 2025, a 76% increase from 2024, indicating a growing preference for ETF investments among foreign investors [4]. - The proportion of ETF trading in the total northbound capital trading volume reached 1.62%, setting a historical high [4]. Group 3: Sector Preferences - The hard technology and non-ferrous metals sectors emerged as the new favorites for northbound capital, with 14 industries seeing holdings exceed 50 billion yuan, and 10 industries surpassing 100 billion yuan [7]. - The electric equipment sector led with a holding value of over 449.6 billion yuan, followed by the electronics sector at over 387 billion yuan, and the non-ferrous metals sector at over 185.5 billion yuan [7]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a remarkable growth of over 172% in holdings compared to the end of 2024, reflecting a shift in investment focus [8]. Group 4: Stock Concentration - The concentration of holdings by northbound capital reached a five-year low in 2025, indicating a trend towards diversification in investment strategies [10]. - The top 20 companies held by northbound capital accounted for less than 36% of total holdings, a decrease of over 2 percentage points from 2021 [11]. Group 5: Popular Investment Themes - In 2025, eight out of ten popular investment themes, including commercial aerospace and semiconductor sectors, saw over 50% of their constituent stocks receiving increased holdings from northbound capital [9]. - The commercial aerospace sector, in particular, had over 80% of its stocks increased in holdings, driven by strong market performance and supportive policies [9]. Group 6: Long-term Trends - Eighteen stocks have been consistently increased in holdings for five consecutive quarters, primarily in the machinery, electric equipment, and automotive sectors, indicating strong institutional confidence [12]. - Conversely, 26 stocks have seen reductions in holdings over the same period, mainly in the pharmaceutical, banking, and consumer sectors, reflecting a shift in investment focus [12][13].

Group 1 - The company announced the transfer of 14,481,773 shares of Northern Huachuang, representing 2% of the total share capital, to Guoxin Investment at a price of 426.39 RMB per share, totaling 6.174 billion RMB [1] - This transfer is aimed at strengthening the strategic cooperation between Beijing Electric Control and Guoxin Investment, leveraging both parties' resource advantages to enhance capital cooperation and industrial empowerment [1] Group 2 - The company is a leading platform for semiconductor equipment, benefiting from the ongoing domestic production process [2] - The company has established a full product lineup in etching equipment, with revenue exceeding 5 billion RMB in the first half of 2025; in thin film deposition equipment, revenue is expected to surpass 6.5 billion RMB; and in thermal processing equipment, revenue is projected to exceed 1 billion RMB [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 27.301 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.130 billion RMB, up 14.83% [2] - The company has implemented a stock incentive plan for key personnel, with performance targets set for revenue growth, R&D investment ratio, patent applications, and profit margins over the next four years [3] - The profit forecast for the company is 7.628 billion RMB for 2025, 10.030 billion RMB for 2026, and a new estimate of 12.812 billion RMB for 2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leadership in the semiconductor equipment sector [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong potential for investment returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform for semiconductor equipment, benefiting from the ongoing domestic production process. It has established a comprehensive product lineup in etching, thin film deposition, and thermal processing equipment, with projected revenues exceeding 50 billion yuan for etching equipment and 65 billion yuan for thin film deposition equipment in the first half of 2025 [2]. - The company has announced a stock incentive plan aimed at binding its core team more closely, with performance targets set for revenue growth and R&D investment ratios over the next four years [3]. - The company reported a revenue of 273.01 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.97%, and a net profit of 51.30 billion yuan, up 14.83% year-on-year [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 22,079 million yuan in 2023, 29,838 million yuan in 2024, 38,778 million yuan in 2025, 49,856 million yuan in 2026, and 59,820 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 50.32%, 35.14%, 29.96%, 28.57%, and 19.99% respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is 3,899 million yuan in 2023, 5,621 million yuan in 2024, 7,628 million yuan in 2025, 10,030 million yuan in 2026, and 12,812 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 65.73%, 44.17%, 35.71%, 31.48%, and 27.74% respectively [4]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 7.35 yuan in 2023, 10.53 yuan in 2024, 10.53 yuan in 2025, 13.84 yuan in 2026, and 17.68 yuan in 2027 [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 68 in 2023, decreasing to 28 by 2027, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 10.8 in 2023 to 6.1 in 2027 [4][12]. - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 16.00% in 2023 to 21.56% in 2027, indicating increasing profitability and efficiency [11].

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance on January 12, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.25%, driven by gains in sectors such as internet, cultural media, and software, while motorcycle and energy equipment sectors faced declines [1] - The chip technology sector demonstrated strong fluctuations, with the chip ETF (159995) increasing by 1.68%. Notable individual stock performances included Longxin Technology rising by 9.52%, Changdian Technology by 7.09%, and Zhongwei Company by 6.77% [1] Group 2 - NVIDIA's founder and CEO Jensen Huang announced the launch of the Rubin platform at CES 2026, which consists of six new chips designed for building extraordinary AI supercomputers. These include Vera CPU, Rubin GPU, NVLink 6 switch, ConnectX-9 SuperNIC, BlueField-4 DPU, and NVIDIA Spectrum-6 Ethernet switch [3] - The Rubin platform is expected to significantly reduce training time and lower inference token costs, marking a new era in AI computing power. The collaborative design of these chips is anticipated to enhance performance and increase the value across multiple segments of the industry [3] - The chip ETF (159995) tracks the National Chip Index, comprising 30 leading companies in the A-share chip industry, including SMIC, Cambricon, Changdian Technology, and Northern Huachuang, indicating a robust investment landscape in the semiconductor sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global semiconductor industry is expected to strengthen in 2026, driven by AI demand and domestic substitution, with a notable increase in semiconductor equipment and materials [1] Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment and ETF Performance - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) opened up 1.15% on January 12, with a net inflow of nearly 100 million yuan over the past two trading days [1] - The index tracked by the semiconductor equipment ETF has risen over 15% this year, outperforming mainstream semiconductor indices [2] - Key stocks such as Zhongwei Company and Cambrian have seen significant gains, with Zhongwei up nearly 4% and Jianghua Micro up over 5% [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - A significant increase in trading volume in A-shares indicates the start of a spring market, with semiconductor equipment leading the upward trend [4] - NVIDIA's new AI chip architecture, Vera Rubin, showcases a fivefold increase in inference performance compared to the previous generation, indicating a surge in storage demand [5] - Major international storage companies plan to raise server DRAM prices by 60% to 70% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025 [5] Group 3: Domestic Substitution and Material Demand - The domestic substitution process for semiconductor materials is advancing, with a recent anti-dumping investigation into dichlorodihydrosilane from Japan, a key material for chip manufacturing [5] - The demand for semiconductor materials and electronic chemicals is expected to rise due to the upgrade of storage driven by AI data centers [6] - The global semiconductor materials market is projected to reach approximately $70 billion by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [6] Group 4: Industry Outlook and Key Players - The trend of "supply security + domestic substitution" for key semiconductor materials is strengthening, driven by AI computing and data center demands [7] - Leading companies with technological accumulation and production capacity in high-end materials are expected to gain market share and profitability amid advanced process promotion and domestic substitution trends [7] - The semiconductor equipment ETF focuses on leading companies in the sector, with over 90% of its holdings in the upper and mid-stream areas of the semiconductor industry, which have the highest technical barriers and value concentration [7]

Key takeaways Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are n ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor materials and equipment theme index (931743) has shown a strong increase of 2.55% as of January 12, 2026, with notable gains from component stocks such as Zhongwei Company (up 7.83%) and Jianghua Micro (up 6.06%) [1] - The semiconductor equipment ETF Huaxia (562590) has also risen by 2.16%, reaching a latest price of 1.94 yuan, and has accumulated a weekly increase of 17.08% as of January 9, 2026 [1] - The ETF has seen active trading with a turnover rate of 13.67% and a transaction volume of 208 million yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] Market Performance - The latest scale of the semiconductor equipment ETF Huaxia has reached 1.505 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1] - The ETF's latest share count stands at 796 million shares, also a one-year high [1] - Over the past four days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 339 million yuan, totaling 595 million yuan and an average daily net inflow of 149 million yuan [1] Leverage and Investment Trends - There has been a consistent influx of leveraged funds into the semiconductor equipment ETF, with net purchases reaching a maximum of 936,670 yuan in a single day, and the latest financing balance at 42.6885 million yuan [1] - The index closely tracks the performance of 40 listed companies involved in semiconductor materials and equipment, reflecting the overall performance of this sector [1] Top Holdings - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the semiconductor materials and equipment theme index account for 65.08% of the index, including companies like Beifang Huachuang and Zhongwei Company [2]

Group 1 - The semiconductor equipment market is experiencing significant growth driven by the demand for AI-related investments, particularly in advanced logic circuits, memory, and packaging technologies [2][3] - The global semiconductor equipment sales are projected to reach a record $133 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.7%, and expected to continue rising to $145 billion in 2026 and $156 billion in 2027 [2] - The wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) sector is anticipated to achieve a sales record of $104 billion in 2024, with an 11% increase to $115.7 billion in 2025, reflecting higher-than-expected investments in DRAM and HBM [2] Group 2 - Major global memory manufacturers are expanding production and upgrading technology, which is a key driver for semiconductor equipment demand [3][4] - Samsung and SK Hynix are accelerating memory capacity expansion, with Samsung focusing on high-end products and SK Hynix preparing to complete a new factory by 2027 [4] - By 2026, South Korea is expected to reclaim the second position in global chip equipment spending, reaching approximately $29.66 billion, a 27.2% increase from 2025 [4] Group 3 - The evolution of storage chips, particularly 3D NAND and DRAM, is driving demand for etching and deposition equipment, with significant increases in the number of layers and complexity of structures [5][6] - The demand for etching equipment is expected to rise sharply as 3D NAND layers increase from 32 to 128, with etching equipment usage rising from 34.9% to 48.4% [10] - The global spending on storage-related equipment is projected to reach $136 billion between 2026 and 2028, with over 40% attributed to 3D NAND investments [11] Group 4 - The demand for deposition equipment is also surging, with the need for more steps in the deposition process as the number of 3D NAND layers increases [11] - Advanced technologies such as atomic layer deposition (ALD) are becoming more critical, with ALD equipment's share in capital expenditures rising from 18% in the 2D era to 26% in the 3D era [11] - HBM technology is increasing the demand for lithography and hybrid bonding equipment due to the need for high-density interconnections and precision [12] Group 5 - Domestic companies are making significant progress in the production of core semiconductor equipment, including etching, deposition, and hybrid bonding devices [14][15] - Companies like Zhongwei, Northern Huachuang, and Yitang Semiconductor are leading in etching equipment, while Northern Huachuang and TuoJing Technology are notable in deposition equipment [14][15] - The hybrid bonding sector is also seeing advancements, with companies like Qinghe Crystal and TuoJing Technology developing innovative bonding solutions for various applications [16][17]