1月28日，章源钨业盘中下跌2.08%，截至09:59，报23.04元/股，成交8.14亿元，换手率2.92%，总市值 276.81亿元。 截至9月30日，章源钨业股东户数9.81万，较上期增加80.69%；人均流通股12185股，较上期减少 44.66%。2025年1月-9月，章源钨业实现营业收入38.78亿元，同比增长37.38%；归母净利润1.90亿元， 同比增长29.71%。 分红方面，章源钨业A股上市后累计派现8.62亿元。近三年，累计派现2.69亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，章源钨业十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第二大流 通股东，持股1300.64万股，相比上期增加422.07万股。银华心佳两年持有期混合（010730）位居第四大 流通股东，持股619.86万股，持股数量较上期不变。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第五大流通股 东，持股549.07万股，相比上期减少3.72万股。华夏中证1000ETF（159845）位居第九大流通股东，持 股326.46万股，相比上期减少4100.00股。广发中证1000ETF（560010）位居第十大流通股东，持股 254. ...

Group 1 - The small metals sector experienced a significant increase of 5.23% on January 26, with Zhangyuan Tungsten leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4132.61, down 0.09%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14316.64, down 0.85% [1] - Key stocks in the small metals sector showed notable price increases, with Zhangyuan Tungsten rising by 10.01% to a closing price of 23.07 [1] Group 2 - The small metals sector saw a net inflow of 1.367 billion yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 1.181 billion yuan [2] - The trading volume for Zhangyuan Tungsten was 934,000 shares, with a transaction value of 2.098 billion yuan [1] - North Rare Earth had a net inflow of 726 million yuan from main funds, indicating strong institutional interest [3]

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The supply-demand tension continues, with tungsten and tin prices breaking historical highs [4] - Rare earth elements are experiencing a supply tightness, leading to increased prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton [12] - Molybdenum prices are expected to stabilize due to cost support and improved supply-demand dynamics, despite a recent decline [23] - Tungsten prices are at historical highs due to supply contraction and price increases in long-term contracts [30] - Tin prices are strong due to macroeconomic factors and ongoing supply disruptions, with SHFE tin rising by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton [33] - Antimony prices are fluctuating, awaiting signals for export recovery, with recent increases noted [42] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increased by 7.69% to 672,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium decreased by 1.39% to 1,420,000 CNY/ton [12][4] - The supply side remains tight due to policy and supply constraints, while demand from downstream magnetic material companies has shifted from just-in-time purchasing to stockpiling [4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices fell by 1.94% to 4,035 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices decreased by 1.90% to 258,500 CNY/ton [23] - The market sentiment is supported by a stabilization in international molybdenum oxide prices and reduced mine shipments [23] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 11.43% to 536,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 12.06% to 790,000 CNY/ton [30] - Supply is tightening due to reduced mining quotas and slower production rates, while domestic demand remains stable [30] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 21.85% to 429,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 21.73% to 54,200 USD/ton [33] - Supply disruptions from key mining regions and strong demand from traditional and emerging sectors are driving price increases [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices rose by 1.26% to 160,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices increased by 1.42% to 142,500 CNY/ton [42] - The supply remains tight, and demand is expected to decline as the market approaches the Lunar New Year [42]

Group 1 - The small metal sector increased by 0.06% on January 22, with Western Materials leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] - Key stocks in the small metal sector showed varied performance, with Western Materials rising by 10.00% to a closing price of 39.60 [1] Group 2 - The small metal sector experienced a net outflow of 562 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 141 million yuan [2] - The trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the small metal sector varied, with Western Materials achieving a turnover of 1.884 billion yuan [1][2] - The stock performance of several companies showed declines, with Haotong Technology down by 3.93% and Xianglu Tungsten down by 3.63% [2] Group 3 - Western Materials had a net inflow of 273 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors had a net outflow of 177 million yuan [3] - Other notable stocks included China Rare Earth with a net inflow of 210 million yuan from main funds, but a net outflow of 157 million yuan from retail investors [3] - The overall trend indicated a mixed sentiment among different investor types within the small metal sector [3]

Group 1 - Tungsten prices have reached historical highs, with 65% black tungsten concentrate priced at 528,000 yuan/ton, and 65% white tungsten concentrate at 527,000 yuan/ton, both up 14.8% since the beginning of the year [1] - The market for tungsten is characterized by tight supply and high prices, with downstream users adjusting product prices to transfer cost pressures, maintaining a strong upward trend in tungsten prices [1] - The increase in tungsten prices is attributed to insufficient supply, confirmed demand growth, and low social inventory levels, suggesting that the upward trend will continue [1] Group 2 - Tungsten is a strategic metal resource essential for the national economy and defense, known for its high melting point, density, and hardness, widely used in various industries [2] - The outlook for tungsten prices in 2026 indicates a likely continuation of high prices and strong fluctuations, with supply and demand remaining in tight balance [2] - Companies in the tungsten industry are expected to benefit from rising prices, as seen in Xianglu Tungsten's forecast of a net profit of 12.5 million to 18 million yuan for 2025, indicating a turnaround from previous losses [2] Group 3 - Xianglu Tungsten reports that the continuous rise in tungsten prices in 2025 has improved the supply-demand situation, enhancing its pricing power and leading to significant growth in gross margins and profits [3] - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its applications in new fields, such as photovoltaic tungsten wire, and is experiencing a demand surge that has not yet been met by supply, contributing to the ongoing price increase [3] - The supply side of tungsten mining is constrained by quota systems, limiting rapid capacity growth, while the market outlook remains positive due to limited new mining projects [3] Group 4 - Zhongtung High-tech announced that its subsidiary has verified an additional tungsten resource of 91,700 tons, with an annual processing capacity of 2.354 million tons, and is working on a project to increase capacity to 3.5 million tons per year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing active performance, particularly in tungsten-related companies, with significant daily stock price increases observed across multiple firms. Group 1: Company Highlights - Zhongtung High-tech (000657.SZ) has a latest stock price of 41.68 CNY, with a daily increase of +10.00%. It is a tungsten industry operation platform under China Minmetals Corporation, recently acquiring equity in Yuanjing Tungsten, significantly boosting its tungsten resource reserves [1]. - Xiamen Tungsten (600549.SH) has a latest stock price of 59.00 CNY, with a daily increase of +9.14%. It possesses a complete industrial chain from tungsten mining to hard alloy deep processing and is the first domestic company capable of developing tungsten components for nuclear fusion devices [2]. - Xianglu Tungsten (002842.SZ) has a latest stock price of 22.60 CNY, with a daily increase of +7.93%. It is one of the few domestic companies with a complete tungsten industrial chain, covering products from tungsten concentrate to hard alloys, and its subsidiary holds tungsten mining rights [3]. - Tin Industry Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ) has a latest stock price of 40.97 CNY, with a daily increase of +7.48%. It is a full industrial chain enterprise focusing on tin and indium, with substantial associated tungsten resources [4]. - Zhangyuan Tungsten (002378.SZ) has a latest stock price of 20.60 CNY, with a daily increase of +6.08%. It is one of the domestic companies with complete tungsten production capabilities, holding multiple mining and exploration rights with rich tungsten resource reserves [5]. - Zhongxi Rare Earth (600259.SH) has a latest stock price of 77.80 CNY, with a daily increase of +4.32%. It is the core listed platform of China Rare Earth Group, spanning industries including rare earth, copper, and tungsten, and possesses tungsten mining resources [5]. - Zhongjin Lingnan (000060.SZ) has a latest stock price of 7.02 CNY, with a daily increase of +3.39%. It is an integrated enterprise focused on lead and zinc deep processing, with tungsten metal resources in its mines [7]. - Shengtun Mining (600711.SH) has a latest stock price of 16.96 CNY, with a daily increase of +2.17%. Its business includes non-ferrous metal mining and trading, with tungsten metal resources in its domestic mines [8].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as "industrial teeth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metal market in 2025, with tungsten prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and explosive demand growth, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory plummeting from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory left, significantly below the 30-day safety line [3][4]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and difficulty in increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China has been reduced by 8.3% to 56,800 tons for 2025, limiting production even as prices rise [4][5]. Demand Explosion - The demand structure for tungsten has fundamentally changed in 2025, with the share of demand from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30%, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [6][8]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major source of demand growth, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance [8]. - The demand from the electric vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring approximately 2-8 kg of tungsten, and global EV sales expected to grow by 20% in 2025, adding 10,500 tons of tungsten demand [8]. Profit Distribution - The profits from the surge in tungsten prices are not evenly distributed across the industry chain, with upstream resource companies being the biggest winners. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [9][10]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, leading to reduced profit margins for smaller firms [10]. Future Outlook - The consensus in the industry is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with tungsten prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2%-3% from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [11][12]. - Analysts predict that black tungsten concentrate prices will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential for prices to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [12]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value sectors such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [13][14]. - The demand growth for tungsten is closely tied to the most promising growth sectors over the next 5-10 years, providing long-term support for tungsten prices and enhancing the investment value of leading companies in the industry [14].

Core Viewpoint - The rare metal tungsten, referred to as the "industrial tooth," is expected to be the standout performer in the non-ferrous metals market in 2025, with prices skyrocketing from 200,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 600,000 yuan/ton by year-end, marking a staggering 300% increase and setting a historical high [4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The surge in tungsten prices is driven by a combination of rigid supply constraints and structural demand explosions, with APT (the core product of tungsten smelting) social inventory dropping from a normal level of 600 tons to below 200 tons, and hard alloy companies having only 12 days of raw material inventory, significantly below the 30-day safety line [7][11]. - The supply side is constrained by three main factors: policy control, resource depletion, and the difficulty of increasing overseas production. The annual mining quota for tungsten in China was set at 56,800 tons for 2025, an 8.3% decrease from the previous year, limiting production even as prices rise [10][11]. Demand Explosion - Demand for tungsten has fundamentally shifted, with the share from new energy and high-end manufacturing rising from 15% in 2024 to 30% in 2025, moving away from traditional steel industry reliance [13]. - The photovoltaic industry is a major growth driver, with tungsten wire replacing carbon steel wire in silicon wafer cutting due to its superior strength and wear resistance. The demand from the new energy vehicle sector is also rapidly increasing, with each vehicle requiring 2-8 kg of tungsten [15]. Profit Distribution in the Industry - The profit from rising tungsten prices is unevenly distributed across the industry, favoring upstream resource companies. For instance, a 10,000 yuan/ton increase in tungsten prices can boost net profits significantly for companies like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhongtung High-tech [17]. - Midstream smelting companies face challenges due to rising raw material costs and tight supply, with some small firms experiencing profit margins dropping below 10% [18]. Future Outlook - The consensus for the tungsten industry in 2026 and beyond is that the supply-demand gap will remain unbridgeable, with prices expected to stay high for the next 3-5 years. The global primary tungsten supply growth rate is projected to be only 2-3% annually from 2026 to 2030, significantly lower than demand growth [20][21]. - Analysts predict that the price of black tungsten concentrate will fluctuate between 460,000 and 520,000 yuan/ton in 2026, with potential to exceed 500,000 yuan/ton if China tightens exports further [21]. Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the tungsten industry should focus on three key areas: upstream resource leaders like Xiamen Tungsten and Zhangyuan Tungsten, high-end manufacturing leaders like Zhongtung High-tech, and niche players in high-value segments such as tungsten-based new materials and military-grade tungsten alloys [22][23].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry's stock price increased by 5.05%, reaching 20.40 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 993 million CNY and a turnover rate of 4.20%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 24.509 billion CNY [1] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry, established on February 28, 2000, and listed on March 31, 2010, is located in Chongyi County, Jiangxi Province. The company specializes in the tungsten industry chain, including products such as APT, tungsten oxide, tungsten powder, tungsten carbide powder, tungsten materials, hard alloys, and tools [1] - The main business revenue composition of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry includes tungsten carbide powder (34.10%), tungsten powder (31.47%), hard alloys (21.28%), and other products (8.49%), with ammonium paratungstate at 0.65% and tungsten oxide at 0.01% [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, Huaxia Fund has a fund that ranks among the top shareholders of Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry. The Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (159845) reduced its holdings by 4,100 shares in the third quarter, holding a total of 3.2646 million shares, which accounts for 0.27% of the circulating shares [2] - The Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF (159845) was established on March 18, 2021, with a latest scale of 45.469 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 7.74%, ranking 1567 out of 5542 in its category, while the one-year return is 40.9%, ranking 1752 out of 4243 [2]