Core Viewpoint - Despite the downturn in lithium carbonate prices, Tianqi Lithium's profitability is expected to grow significantly in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the same period last year [1][3]. Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium's revenue for 2024 was 13.063 billion yuan, a decrease of 67.75% year-on-year, with a net loss of 7.905 billion yuan, down 208.32% year-on-year [3]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.584 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.02% year-on-year, and a net profit of 104 million yuan, an increase of 102.68% year-on-year [4]. Market Dynamics - The lithium product market is currently experiencing a bottoming process, which is expected to facilitate industry clearing and restructuring [4][7]. - The lithium industry is characterized by high competition, and companies must continuously enhance their core competitiveness to navigate through cycles successfully [7]. Industry Outlook - The long-term outlook for the lithium industry remains positive, driven by the growth of the new energy vehicle and energy storage sectors [6]. - Emerging applications such as electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles and drones are expanding the market for lithium batteries [6]. Pricing Trends - As of July 4, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 62,300 yuan per ton, indicating a need for key catalysts for a market reversal, such as production cuts from large mines or increased downstream demand [7].

然而，实际情况并没有账面利润那么乐观，以上行业龙头的盈利增长也不具备普遍性。其中，赣锋锂业 账面盈利减亏，但是扣非后净利润的亏损幅度较上年同期放大，天齐锂业则是受益于成本错配因素的减 弱，使得公司经营业绩更加趋于正常化。 而从锂行业运行情况来看，二季度相关企业的盈利情况进一步恶化。21世纪经济报道记者掌握的统计数 据显示，今年一季度国内电池级碳酸锂市场均价为7.58万元/吨，二季度进一步回落至6.52万元/吨。 5-6万元/吨，正是国内矿石提锂企业的最低成本线，能够达到这一水平的锂业公司也仅有天齐锂业、永 兴材料（002756.SZ）和中矿资源(002738.SZ)。其他成本偏高的锂业公司，二季度也出现了亏损环比扩 大的情况，比如盛新锂能、江特电机和永杉锂业等。 相对分散的供给端，加上缺少政策引导，又使得锂行业产能去化如同"钝刀子割肉"，至今国内锂盐产 量、库存数据依旧处于相对高位。 21世纪经济报道记者 董鹏 成都报道 7月14日晚间，"锂业双雄"发布半年度业绩预告，赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）同比减亏，天齐锂业 (002466.SZ)则实现扭亏。 比如有望实现扭亏的天齐锂业，公司上半年预计盈利亦不过0- ...

Industry Overview - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector in China has seen over 30% growth in the first half of the year, with lithium batteries growing by 53.3%, indicating a strong momentum in the new energy industry [2] - The export structure of China continues to optimize, with total exports of electromechanical products reaching 7.8 trillion yuan, a 9.5% increase, accounting for 60% of total exports. The "new three items" (NEVs, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic products) saw a 12.7% increase in exports, showcasing the manufacturing industry's shift towards green and low-carbon development [2] Battery Production and Sales - In June, China's total production of power and other batteries reached 129.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 4.6% and a year-on-year increase of 51.4%. The cumulative production for the first half of the year was 697.3 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 60.4% [6] - The power battery installation volume in June was 58.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 35.9%. Among these, ternary battery installations accounted for 10.7 GWh (18.4% of total installations), while lithium iron phosphate battery installations reached 47.4 GWh (81% of total installations) [6] Company Performance - Tianqi Lithium Industries expects a net profit of 0 to 155 million yuan in the first half of the year, marking a turnaround from losses. This is attributed to a shortened pricing cycle for lithium ore and increased investment income from its joint venture SQM, despite a decline in lithium product sales prices [9] - Sanyuan Co. anticipates a significant net profit increase of 810.41% to 1.265 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, driven by its core businesses in negative materials and polarizers [11] - Zhongke Electric expects a net profit of 232 million to 301 million yuan for the first half of the year, a growth of 235% to 335% year-on-year, due to increased production capacity of lithium battery anode materials and rising demand from the NEV and fast-charging markets [13] Equipment Development - Shenzhen Ruineng Industrial Co., Ltd. has successfully delivered core equipment for solid-state battery manufacturing to a leading domestic battery manufacturer, including specialized equipment for solid-state battery formation and testing [16] International Developments - General Motors announced a shift in its Tennessee battery plant to produce LFP lithium iron phosphate batteries, accelerating the mass production and research of LMR lithium-rich manganese-based batteries, enhancing its battery product lineup [18] - SK On's North American factory has fully commenced operations for the first time since opening three years ago, with all 12 production lines running at full capacity, significantly increasing battery output compared to the previous year [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a "long-termism" approach in the lithium battery industry, advocating for companies to find their strengths and stable paths for sustainable growth [1][2] - Tianqi Lithium's half-year performance forecast indicates a net profit range of 0 to 155 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit range of 0 to 89 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year [1] - The company has maintained a leading position in the industry, with significant increases in production and sales of core lithium compounds and derivatives, alongside improved management and governance since the new chairman took over [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on a "vertically integrated" business model, enhancing its advantages in the supply chain [2] - The demand for new energy vehicles is rising, with 5.622 million new registrations in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 27.86%, accounting for 44.97% of total new vehicle registrations [2] - Analysts project Tianqi Lithium's net profits to reach 1.768 billion yuan, 3.176 billion yuan, and 5.150 billion yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating strong future growth potential [2]

Group 1 - Global sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 1.8 million units in June, representing a 24% increase year-on-year [1] - The end of inventory destocking in the industry is expected to reverse the declining profitability in the materials sector for 2023-2024, with the European market poised for a second growth phase and the domestic market likely to maintain high growth driven by extended-range passenger vehicles and pure electric commercial vehicles [1] - As of July 15, 2025, the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index (930997) fell by 0.29%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, including a 3.18% increase in Defu Technology (301511) and a 4.22% decline in Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240) [1] Group 2 - The management fee for the New Energy Vehicle ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [2] - The CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index closely tracks the performance of 50 listed companies involved in the new energy vehicle sector, reflecting the overall performance of leading companies in the industry [2] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI New Energy Vehicle Industry Index accounted for 55.74% of the index, including companies like CATL (300750) and BYD (002594) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic lithium carbonate production and inventory are at a high level, and the supply - demand outlook is relatively loose. However, due to national policy - guided clearance of lithium carbonate and the impact of automobile consumption, the prices of domestic and imported lithium carbonate may have an upward space. It is recommended to hold long positions in appropriate quantities and pay attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Futures and Spot Prices - **Lithium Futures**: On July 14, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with July 11, 2025. The trading volume of the active contract was 1,014,558.00 hands, an increase of 611,742.00 hands; the open interest was 356,161.00 hands, an increase of 33,301.00 hands; the inventory was 11,204.00 tons, a decrease of 399.00 tons [1]. - **Lithium Spot**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, metal lithium, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 64,650.00 yuan/ton on July 14, 2025, an increase of 900.00 yuan/ton compared with July 11, 2025 [1]. Lithium - Related Company News - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium mica project phase I with an annual capacity of 816,000 tons of lithium concentrate per month has been officially put into production. Tianqi Lithium's project in Xilin Gol League may be put into production in October 2025, and the total production and sales will reach 21,970 tons per year [3]. - Panasonic Holdings will postpone the production plan of its new EV battery factory in Kansas, USA. Derui Power is promoting the acceptance work of its new production capacity, which will be gradually released according to sales and orders, with the initial production mainly focusing on lithium - manganese and lithium - iron primary batteries [2]. - OaoL plans to produce at least 100 tons of silicon - graphite composite anode materials per year after investing $11 - 20 million in its Moses Lake plant. OneD Battery Sciences has closed its pilot manufacturing plant in Moses Lake due to tariff policies [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The production of lithium carbonate in China is expected to increase. Some production lines are under maintenance or capacity upgrading. The inventory of lithium carbonate in China has increased compared with last week. The production of lithium hydroxide in July may decrease, and its inventory may increase [3]. - **Demand**: The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate in China is 10,600 - 12,900 yuan/ton, and its production volume may increase. The monthly average production cost of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials is 29,500 - 55,000 yuan/ton [4]. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Strategy**: Some companies' production capacity expansion and project progress are in progress. The export volume of some products may change. For example, the export volume of lithium salt in China may be affected by the global supply - demand situation. The production and inventory of various materials such as cobalt, ternary precursors, and ternary materials also show different trends [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in appropriate quantities in the domestic lithium carbonate market, paying attention to the support level around 58,000 - 62,000 and the resistance level around 66,000 - 70,000 [5].

Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.4 trillion yuan on July 15, 2025 [1] - As of the end of June, M2 (broad money) increased by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 330.29 trillion yuan, while M1 (narrow money) grew by 4.6% to 113.95 trillion yuan [2] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.18 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 12% [2] Green Finance Initiatives - The People's Bank of China, along with financial regulatory authorities, issued the "Green Finance Support Project Directory (2025 Edition)" to enhance liquidity in the green finance market and improve asset management efficiency [2] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - Vanke A expects a net loss of 10 billion to 12 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with a basic loss per share of 0.8433 to 1.01 yuan [4] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, impacted by the closure of 227 underperforming stores [5] - Longi Green Energy forecasts a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan, although it expects to reduce losses compared to the previous year [6] - Hengsheng Electronics projects a net profit of approximately 251 million yuan, a 741% increase year-on-year [7] - Wintime Technology expects a net profit of 390 million to 585 million yuan, representing a growth of 178% to 317% [8] - ST Huatuo anticipates a net profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 107.2% to 159% [9] - Tianqi Lithium expects a net profit of 0 to 1.55 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 5.206 billion yuan in the previous year [10] - Ganfeng Lithium forecasts a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan, compared to a loss of 760 million yuan in the same period last year [11] - Liyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan, a growth of 31.57% to 66.66% [12] - CICC anticipates a net profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55% to 78% [13] - Shenwan Hongyuan projects a net profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan, a growth of 92.66% to 111.46% [14] - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan, an increase of 84.3% to 120.5% year-on-year [15] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit of 70 million to 85 million yuan, a significant increase from 2.224 million yuan in the previous year [16] Corporate Actions and Legal Matters - Suzhou Planning intends to acquire 100% of Beijing Dongjin Aviation Technology Co., Ltd., with stock resuming trading on July 15, 2025 [17] - BOE Technology Group plans to appeal the preliminary ruling from the US International Trade Commission regarding trade secrets and has initiated a patent lawsuit against Samsung Display [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant developments in China's financial and economic landscape, including regulatory measures, monetary policy updates, trade statistics, and corporate earnings forecasts. Group 1: Regulatory and Policy Developments - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strengthening financial trial work to combat market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering, while also improving rules for emerging financial disputes [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation and consumption, with a total loan contract amount for technology innovation reaching 1.74 trillion yuan by the end of May [3] - The PBOC plans to conduct a 14 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [4] Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of June 2025, the broad money supply (M2) in China reached 330.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.95 trillion yuan, up by 4.6% [2] - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - China's goods trade in the first half of 2025 totaled 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [4] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Developments - China National Salt Industry Corporation reported a 5.76% decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down 88.04% to 52.72 million yuan [8] - Jinpu Titanium Industry plans to exit the titanium dioxide industry through significant asset swaps [9] - Qianfang Technology expects a net profit increase of 1125.99% to 1534.65% for the first half of 2025 [10] - Huahong Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 3047.48% to 3721.94% for the same period [11] - Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation projects a net profit increase of 1628.83% to 2315.27% for the first half of 2025 [19]

Macro News - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes strict punishment for financial crimes such as market manipulation, insider trading, illegal fundraising, loan fraud, and money laundering to promote healthy financial market development [1][5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 14 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on July 15, 2025, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with 8 trillion yuan for 3-month operations and 6 trillion yuan for 6-month operations [3][6] - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, with new loans amounting to 12.92 trillion yuan, and M2 growth of 8.3% year-on-year [4][6] Company News - China Eastern Airlines expects a net loss of 12 billion to 16 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [12] - Greenland Holdings anticipates a net loss of 30 billion to 35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [13] - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 24 billion to 28 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, although it represents a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [13] - Perfect World anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [17] - Wen Tai Technology expects a net profit increase of 178% to 317% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [18] - China Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 136 million to 176 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a return to profitability [21] Investment Opportunities - The Robotaxi industry is expected to experience rapid growth due to technological advancements and supportive policies, with 2025 projected as a year of mass production [29] - The solid-state battery market is anticipated to see significant growth, with expectations for small-scale production by 2027 and larger-scale shipments by 2030, driven by increasing demand for high-performance batteries [30] - The humanoid robot market is projected to grow significantly, with a record order of 124 million yuan for humanoid robot manufacturing services, indicating strong market potential [31] - The successful production of the first barrel of uranium from China's largest natural uranium production project is expected to enhance the country's energy resource security and influence in uranium resource development [32]

Group 1 - Cathay Pacific Haikou expects a net profit increase of 205%-218% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 15.283 billion to 15.957 billion yuan [1] - The main reason for the profit increase is the merger with Haitong Securities, which has led to significant growth in wealth management and trading revenues [1] - Shenyuan Hongyuan anticipates a net profit increase of 92.66%-111.46% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.1 billion to 4.5 billion yuan [6][7] Group 2 - Southern Airlines expects a net loss of 1.338 billion to 1.756 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in passenger structure and international uncertainties [2] - China Eastern Airlines projects a net loss of 1.2 billion to 1.6 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by intense domestic market competition [3] - Air China anticipates a net loss of 1.7 billion to 2.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, affected by market supply imbalances and international uncertainties [4] Group 3 - HNA Group expects to turn a profit in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 45 million to 65 million yuan, attributed to improved market conditions and operational adjustments [5] - CICC forecasts a net profit increase of 55%-78% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 3.453 billion to 3.966 billion yuan [8] - CITIC Securities anticipates a net profit increase of 55%-60% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 4.43 billion to 4.573 billion yuan [9] Group 4 - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 2.55 billion to 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing an increase of 84.3%-120.5% [10] - Poly Developments anticipates a net profit decrease of 63.15% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.735 billion yuan [11] - Luoyang Molybdenum expects a net profit increase of 51%-68% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 8.2 billion to 9.1 billion yuan [13] Group 5 - Longi Green Energy expects a net loss of 2.4 billion to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, but with a significant reduction in losses compared to the previous year [14] - Tongwei Co. anticipates a net loss of 4.9 billion to 5.2 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, influenced by ongoing industry challenges [15] - Ganfeng Lithium expects a net loss of 300 million to 550 million yuan for the first half of 2025, an improvement from the previous year's loss [16] Group 6 - Jianghuai Automobile expects a net loss of approximately 680 million yuan for the first half of 2025, primarily due to increased competition in the international market [21] - Yonghui Supermarket anticipates a net loss of 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, attributed to ongoing transformation challenges [22] - ST Huatuo expects a net profit increase of 107.2%-159% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.4 billion to 3 billion yuan [23] Group 7 - New Hope anticipates a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [25] - Linyi Intelligent Manufacturing expects a net profit increase of 32%-67% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 900 million to 1.14 billion yuan [27] - Pengding Holdings expects a net profit increase of 52.79%-60.62% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.198 billion to 1.26 billion yuan [29] Group 8 - Hengtong Electronics expects a net profit increase of 740.95% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of approximately 251 million yuan [30] - Shengyi Technology anticipates a net profit increase of 50%-56% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 1.4 billion to 1.45 billion yuan [31] - Founder Securities expects a net profit increase of 70%-80% for the first half of 2025, with a projected profit of 2.299 billion to 2.43 billion yuan [33]