证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 2 月 4 日 江海证券研究发展部 消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -3.42 -2.93 -4.02 绝对收益 -2.76 -2.78 18.06 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 注：2026 年 2 月 3 日数据 -15% -6% 4% 14% 24% 34% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔行 业：能繁母猪加速去化，关注生猪养殖左 侧布局机会 – 2025.11.25 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔："反 内卷"叠加亏损减产，生猪养殖有望进入 产能去化周期 – 2025.09.25 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-农林牧渔行 业：中央一号文件发布，首提农业新质生 产力 – 2025.02.24 农林牧渔行业 聚焦农业现代化，建设农业强国 事件： ◆2026 年中央一号文件发布。2026 年 2 月 3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its global offering on January 29, with shares priced at HKD 39 each, aiming for a total issuance scale of approximately HKD 106.8 billion to HKD 122.9 billion, highlighting its leading position in the domestic pig farming market despite the cyclical nature of the industry [1][2]. Group 1: IPO Details - The offering price of Muyuan Foods is at a discount of approximately 23.9% compared to its A-share closing price of CNY 45.68 on February 3, which aligns with the valuation logic of leading enterprises [1][2]. - The IPO attracted 13 cornerstone investors, raising a total of USD 685 million, which accounts for 50% of the issuance scale, indicating strong investor confidence [4][5]. Group 2: Market Position and Valuation - Muyuan Foods is recognized as a unique leader in the pig farming industry, excelling in production capacity, breeding technology, cost control, and industry chain integration, making it an irreplaceable asset for investors looking to enter the domestic pig farming sector [1][2]. - The discount level of 23.9% is significantly lower than other A to H projects launched around the same time, such as Lianqi Technology, which had a discount of 47.7%, showcasing a competitive valuation for Muyuan Foods [2][3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated resilience in its financial performance despite industry fluctuations, with revenues recorded at CNY 124.8 billion, CNY 110.9 billion, CNY 137.9 billion, and CNY 111.8 billion from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025 [6]. - The average selling price of commodity pigs dropped by 17.3% year-on-year to CNY 13.5 per kilogram in 2025, significantly impacting profitability, with projected net profits for the year expected to decline by 12.20% to 17.79% [6][7]. Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company has consistently optimized its dividend policy, with an average payout ratio of 28% since its listing, and an expected dividend yield of 2.6% for 2025, providing a stable return for investors [9][10].

Group 1 - Muyuan Foods launched its global offering on January 29, with a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange scheduled for February 6, at an issue price of HKD 39 per share, raising approximately HKD 106.8 billion to HKD 122.9 billion [1][11] - The company holds a leading position in the domestic pig farming market, excelling in production capacity, breeding technology, cost control, and industry chain integration, making it a unique investment opportunity for those looking to enter the core assets of the domestic pig industry [1][11] - The IPO pricing reflects a discount of approximately 23.9% compared to the A-share closing price of RMB 45.68 on February 3, which aligns with the valuation logic of leading enterprises [1][12] Group 2 - Compared to other A to H projects launched in the same week, Muyuan's discount of 23.9% is significantly lower than those exceeding 45% for other companies, providing a more attractive entry point for investors [2][12] - The company does not rely on high discounts to attract capital, as its strong market position and operational fundamentals serve as its core appeal [2][12] - The company attracted 13 cornerstone investors, raising a total of USD 685 million, which accounts for 50% of the offering size, indicating strong confidence from various high-quality investors [3][14] Group 3 - Major cornerstone investors include Charoen Pokphand Foods from Thailand and Olam Group from Singapore, with investments of USD 200 million and USD 70 million respectively, showcasing industry capital linkage [4][14] - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance despite industry cyclicality, with revenues of RMB 124.8 billion, RMB 110.9 billion, RMB 137.9 billion, and RMB 111.8 billion from 2022 to the first three quarters of 2025 [6][16] - The average dividend payout ratio since the company's listing has been 28%, with an increase to 42% in 2024 and 48% in the first half of 2025, providing a stable return expectation for investors [8][19]

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300967 | 膀鸣股份 | 22.23 | -4.92% | 16.72万 | 3.74Z | | 600965 | 福成股份 | 6.28 | -1.88% | 19.50万 | · 1.23亿 | | 002321 | 华英农业 | 2.43 | -0.41% | 63.00万 | 1.52亿 | | 300313 | *ST天山 | 8.30 | -0.36% | 1 2.78万 | 2312.15万 | | 000048 | 京基督农 | 18.02 | -0.17% | 10.93万 | 1.96亿 | | 000735 | 罗牛山 | 7.87 | -0.13% | 43.22万 | 3.39亿 | | 603477 | 巨星农牧 | 17.61 | 0.40% | 6.48万 | 1.14亿 | | 002458 | 益生股份 | 9.64 | 0.42% | 10.48万 | 1.01亿 | | 002746 | 仙坛股份 | ...

牧原股份（002714）(02714)发布公告，于2026年2月4日，发售价已厘定为每股H股39.00港元。假设全 球发售于2026年2月6日上午八时正或之前成为无条件，预期H股将于2026年2月6日上午九时正开始在联 交所主板买卖。H股将以每手100股H股为单位进行买卖。 ...

智通财经APP讯，牧原股份(02714)发布公告，于2026年2月4日，发售价已厘定为每股H股39.00港元。假 设全球发售于2026年2月6日上午八时正或之前成为无条件，预期H股将于2026年2月6日上午九时正开始 在联交所主板买卖。H股将以每手100股H股为单位进行买卖。 ...

假设全球发售于2026年2月6日(星期五)上午八时正(香港时间)或之前成为无条件，预期H股将于2026年2 月6日(星期五)上午九时正(香港时间)开始在联交所主板买卖。H股将以每手100股H股为单位进行买卖。 格隆汇2月4日丨牧原股份(02714.HK)发布公告，2026年2月4日，发售价已厘定为每股H股39.00港元。 ...

交易文件显示，牧原股份将香港上市价格定在区间顶端，从而筹得107亿港元（14亿美元）资金。将约 2.74亿股股票的价格定在每股39港元。较该公司A股周二收盘价45.68元人民币折价24%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural sector is experiencing positive momentum, with the Agricultural ETF (Hua Xia, 516810) showing gains and increased investor interest following the release of the 2026 Central No. 1 Document, which emphasizes food security and agricultural modernization [1]. Group 1: Agricultural Sector Performance - As of February 4, the Agricultural ETF (Hua Xia, 516810) is trading positively, with holdings such as Nongfa Seed Industry rising over 5% [1]. - Other companies like Haida Group, Muyuan Foods, Tianma Technology, and Denghai Seeds are also seeing upward movement [1]. - In the past five days, the ETF has attracted a net inflow of 19.39 million yuan, indicating heightened interest in the sector [1]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The 2026 Central No. 1 Document sets a target for grain production to stabilize at around 1.4 trillion jin, alongside a new initiative to enhance grain production capacity by 100 billion jin [1]. - The document promotes the integration of artificial intelligence in agriculture, expanding applications for drones, IoT, and robotics, and accelerating key technological innovations in agricultural bio-manufacturing [1]. - It also outlines plans for extending land contracts for an additional 30 years post-expiration, increasing financial support for agricultural enterprises and farmers, and facilitating the urbanization of agricultural migrants [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - GF Securities interprets the release of the Central No. 1 Document as a significant step towards building a strong agricultural nation, suggesting that there are substantial opportunities for modernization in rural areas [1]. - The emphasis on food security and breeding innovation positions leading seed companies to benefit from advancements in breeding research and the industrialization of biological breeding [1].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Agriculture Sector**: The focus is on enhancing the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, consolidating the relief achievements in beef and dairy industries, and promoting supply-demand balance and healthy development [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Livestock Industry**: - Emphasis on strengthening pig production capacity regulation and consolidating the relief of beef and dairy industries to ensure a balanced supply and demand [1][5]. - Introduction of multiple measures to promote dairy product consumption [2][6]. - **Crop Production**: - Stability in grain and oil production is prioritized, with efforts to enhance soybean production capacity and expand the production space for oilseed crops such as rapeseed, peanuts, and tea oil [3][7]. - Promotion of stable development in cotton, sugar, and natural rubber industries [4][8]. - **Seed Industry**: - Implementation of seed industry revitalization actions, accelerating the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties, and advancing the industrialization of biotechnology [9]. - **Agricultural Technology**: - Development of new agricultural productivity tailored to local conditions, integrating artificial intelligence with agriculture, and expanding application scenarios for drones, IoT, and robotics [10]. - **Agricultural Trade**: - Coordination between agricultural trade and production is encouraged, with a push for diversification in agricultural imports [11][12]. - Cultivation of internationally competitive agricultural enterprises and support for expanding exports of advantageous specialty agricultural products [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Focus**: Attention is drawn to the effectiveness of livestock production capacity regulation, the cyclical reversal of beef and dairy industries, and the orderly advancement of seed industry revitalization [15]. - **Key Investment Targets**: Notable companies include YouRan Agriculture, Modern Animal Husbandry, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Dekang Agriculture, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [16]. - **Smart Agriculture**: The company TopCloud Agriculture is highlighted as a noteworthy entity in the smart agriculture sector [17].