Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of building an agricultural powerhouse as highlighted in the 2026 Central Document No. 1, which focuses on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It stresses the need for comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and the establishment of a diversified food supply system, indicating a shift from "doing well" to "strengthening" the regulation of pig production capacity compared to the 2025 document [7] - The report outlines the goal of stabilizing grain and oil production, with a target grain output of approximately 1.4 trillion jin, and emphasizes the importance of seed industry revitalization actions [7] - It highlights the integration of artificial intelligence with agricultural development, promoting the use of drones and other technologies to enhance agricultural productivity [7] - Investment suggestions include focusing on leading seed companies that benefit from breeding innovation and the biological breeding industry, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds [7] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The 2026 Central Document No. 1 outlines three main areas: improving agricultural production capacity, implementing precise assistance, and promoting stable income growth for farmers [7] - It calls for a focus on stabilizing grain production and enhancing the diversity of oilseed supply, including increasing soybean production and expanding the cultivation of other oil crops [7] Technological Integration - The report discusses the potential of integrating AI with agriculture, including applications in autonomous farming machinery and AI pest identification, which are expected to drive improvements in agricultural efficiency [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to companies with breeding research advantages, particularly in the context of the biological breeding industry, suggesting companies like Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Kangnong Seeds as potential investment opportunities [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The pig price is weakening, and supply pressure remains after the festival, with the current industry breeding profit turning positive and the sentiment for replenishment continuing to recover [2][12] - The industry policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation, which may lead to a better performance of growth stocks in the future [3][12] - The high-quality development of the industry is imperative, with cost-leading and farmer-linked enterprises likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector has seen a slight increase of 0.2%, gradually digesting concerns about slow capacity reduction [2][12] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter has decreased from high levels, with prices adjusting weakly to 12.31 CNY/kg [2][12] - The price of 7 kg piglets has risen to 367 CNY, indicating a weak expectation for capacity reduction [2][12] - The policy shift towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation is expected to positively influence pig prices and profitability in 2026 [3][12] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.7 CNY/kg, down 3.4% week-on-week [4][13] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to a reduction in imported breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [4][13] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming are expected to expand market share in 2026 [4][14] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have rebounded, with significant year-on-year increases for some species [5][15] - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [6][15][16] - The company aims for a global sales target of 100 million tons by 2050, with ongoing overseas market expansion [6][16] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry is facing pressure with concerns over Q4 2025 performance, but there are signs of recovery in domestic sales [7][17] - Companies like Zhongchong and Peidi are recommended for their strong domestic sales growth potential [7][17] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices have increased slightly, supported by weather disturbances and procurement demand [8][18] - Corn prices have shown fluctuations, with a slight decrease due to reduced channel stocking [8][18] - The price of eggs has decreased, indicating a potential peak in trade inventory [8][18]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月3日，牧原股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司会在定期报告中披露报告期 末的前十大股东持股情况，请关注后续相关公告。 ...

证券日报网讯2月3日，牧原股份（002714）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司持续关注前沿技术 发展动态，不断加大在智能化、数字化方面的研发投入，积极探索将各项新技术应用到养猪生产全流 程，基于业务场景研发各类智能装备，以更好地服务养猪生产，提升养殖效率，降低养殖成本。 ...

格隆汇2月3日丨牧原股份(002714.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司持续关注前沿技术发展动态，不断 加大在智能化、数字化方面的研发投入，积极探索将各项新技术应用到养猪生产全流程，基于业务场景 研发各类智能装备，以更好地服务养猪生产，提升养殖效率，降低养殖成本。 ...

格隆汇2月3日丨牧原股份(002714.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司持续关注前沿技术发展动态，不断 加大在智能化、数字化方面的研发投入，积极探索将各项新技术应用到养猪生产全流程，基于业务场景 研发各类智能装备，以更好地服务养猪生产，提升养殖效率，降低养殖成本。 ...

在继续夯实生猪养殖的领先地位的同时，牧原股份自2019年开始进军生猪屠宰肉食业务，以增强公司全 产业链运营的优势。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，按屠宰头数计量，公司于2024年的屠宰与肉食业务位列 全球第五、中国第一。按照收入计量，2021年至2024年间，公司的屠宰肉食业务的收入复合年均增长率 居于中国大型同行业企业之首。 公司已与Charoen Pokphand Foods、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、富达基金、加皇环球资产管理(亚 洲)有限公司、PerseveranceAsset Management、上海高毅及华泰资本投资(与高毅场外掉期有关)、平安人 寿保险、大家人寿、UBS AM Singapore、美的发展控股BVI、Millennium、Jane Street签订基石投资协 议，基石投资者已同意，在满足若干条件的情况下，认购可按发售价购买总额约为53.42亿港元的有关 发售股份数目(向下调整至最接近每手100股H股的完整买卖单位)。 招股书显示，牧原股份为生猪养殖行业的领导者，采取的垂直一体化商业模式已覆盖生猪育种、生猪养 殖、饲料生产、屠宰肉食的生猪全产业链条。根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Agricultural and Animal Husbandry ETF managed by Jianxin Fund, which opened at 0.904 yuan and experienced a slight decline of 0.33% [1] - The ETF's major holdings include Cangge Mining, which rose by 3.34%, and Yilake Co., which increased by 2.82%, while other stocks like Muyuan Foods and New Hope saw minor declines [1] - Since its inception on July 21, 2022, the ETF has reported a return of -9.46%, with a recent one-month return of 3.27% [1] Group 2 - The ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Agricultural and Animal Husbandry Theme Index return [1] - The fund manager is Jianxin Fund Management Co., Ltd., and the fund manager is Gong Jiajia [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Agricultural Sector Industry Overview - The conference focused on the agricultural sector, particularly the investment opportunities in agricultural products and the implications of global trends such as de-globalization and food security [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Strategic Importance of Agricultural Products - Agricultural products are positioned as a strategic priority in the context of global resource and energy security, emphasizing food security as a critical national strategy [1]. - The agricultural sector is expected to become a significant investment opportunity in the A-share market, alongside resource and energy products [1]. Weather Impact on Supply and Prices - The emergence of a weak La Niña phenomenon has led to extreme weather conditions affecting major production areas, which may impact supply and price trends for certain agricultural products [2]. Investment Opportunities in Agricultural Chains - The investment landscape in agriculture is divided into two main chains: planting and breeding. The planting chain is deemed more urgent and important due to the backdrop of food security [2][3]. - The planting chain is currently at a historical low in profitability, suggesting a potential turning point for companies involved in seed production and agricultural inputs [3]. Seed Industry Outlook - The seed industry is expected to see a recovery starting in 2026, with potential revenue and profit improvements. The sector may experience a "Davis Double Play" effect, where both valuation and profitability increase [4]. Breeding Industry Dynamics - The breeding industry operates under a fully market-driven pricing mechanism. Future growth is anticipated to be driven by two main themes: growth in breeding and a new cycle of development [5]. - The breeding sector is entering a 3.0 era characterized by increased scale and efficiency, with leading companies achieving significant cost advantages through breeding and feed management [6][7]. International Expansion of Breeding Sector - The international expansion of the breeding sector is highlighted as a key growth area, with Chinese companies increasingly participating in global supply chains [7][8]. - Notable companies are planning IPOs and expansions into overseas markets, indicating a robust growth trajectory [8]. New Cycles in Animal Protein - The new cycle in animal protein is expected to prioritize beef over pork and dairy, with beef production showing significant potential for growth [9][10]. - The pork industry is facing challenges, with expectations of price declines post-holiday season due to oversupply [11][30]. Dairy and Poultry Sector Insights - The dairy sector is nearing the end of a production cycle, with expectations of price recovery in 2026. The demand for dairy products is anticipated to exceed market expectations [12][13]. - The poultry sector is under scrutiny due to potential disruptions from avian influenza, with critical monitoring needed in early 2026 [14][15]. Additional Insights - The conference emphasized the importance of monitoring grain prices, particularly corn and wheat, which are influenced by weather conditions and market dynamics [16][19]. - The soybean market, particularly for soybean meal, is experiencing price increases despite high inventory levels, driven by external factors and market sentiment [20][21][22]. - The overall investment strategy in the agricultural sector should focus on high-quality assets and companies with cost advantages, especially in the context of ongoing market fluctuations and potential downturns [34]. Conclusion - The agricultural sector presents a complex landscape of opportunities and challenges, with significant potential for growth in both planting and breeding chains. Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and strategic positioning in the market [36][37].

生猪养殖板块业绩预告的线索 20260202 摘要 当前生猪养殖行业普遍亏损，销售价格约为每公斤 11.5 元，而部分企 业成本超过 13.5 元，导致每头猪亏损高达 220-240 元。牧原股份虽盈 利，但盈利仅为每头 10 元，成本控制在 11.4 元/公斤左右。 各公司成本差异显著，高低之间差距达 1.5-2 元/公斤。尽管部分公司通 过提高 PSY 和成活率降低成本，但行业内成本梯队分化明显，成本控制 能力是盈利的关键因素。 预计 2026 年一季度行业盈利状况将持续分化，部分企业盈利，部分企 业亏损。行业整体资产负债率可能上升，部分公司或将调整母猪存栏量 以应对亏损和成本下降。 2025 年全行业成本呈下降趋势，温氏股份从 12.7 元降至 12 元，牧原 股份从 12.8 元降至 11.4 元，新希望六和从 13.5 元降至 13.2 元，主要 得益于饲料改进和管理效率提升。牧原股份 2024-2025 年成本下降约 4 元。 2021-2022 年全行业亏损 402 亿元，牧原股份盈利 200 亿元，其余 13 家公司合计亏损 600 亿元。2023-2025 年全行业盈利 140 亿元， 牧原 ...