在经营业绩稳定发展的背景下，牧原股份财务状况也显著优化。2024年全年公司现金分红总额75.88亿 元，创年度分红规模新高，同时公司计划在2025年将负债规模降低100亿元。 今年年初，牧原启动港股发行计划，公司已于5月27日向香港联交所递交了发行境外上市外资股（H 股）并在主板挂牌上市的申请。 招股书显示，根据弗若斯特沙利文统计，自2021年起，按生猪产能及出栏量计量，牧原股份是全球第一 大生猪养殖企业，生猪出栏量连续四年全球第一。 在招股书中，牧原股份也提及，自本世纪10年代中期以来，世界各地许多主要的生猪生产国均已实施日 趋严格的环境法规及政策，旨在遏制污染并推广可持续的畜牧养殖方式。该等措施已推动全球转向标准 化及工业规模化的生猪养殖。全球生猪养殖行业仍然高度分散，为环境可持续及技术驱动型公司进一步 整合市场留下充足机会。 长江证券在近期研报中表示，牧原股份已由高成长发展阶段步入高质量发展阶段，内部管理不断精进， 养殖成本有望持续领先行业，屠宰业务盈利改善，未来有望出海扩张，践行国际化战略，构建新成长曲 线。牧原股份具备长期配置价值。 证券时报记者 赵黎昀 7月9日晚间，牧原股份(002714)发布2 ...

文|恒心 来源|博望财经 牧原股份一份净利润预增超1100%的半年报引爆市场。 2025年上半年，牧原股份归母净利润达102亿元–107亿元，同比增幅高达1129.97%–1190.26%。这一数字不仅刷新行业纪录，更颠覆了生猪养殖企业"靠天 吃饭"的周期股标签。 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | | 净利润 | 盈利:105.00 亿元-110.00 亿元 | 盈利: 10.25 亿元 | | | 比上年同期增长:924.60%-973.39% | | | 归属于上市公司股 | 盈利:102.00 亿元-107.00 亿元 | 盈利: 8.29 亿元 | | 东的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:1,129.97%-1,190.26% | | | 扣除非经常性损益 | 盈利:106.00 亿元-111.00 亿元 | 盈利: 10.78 亿元 | | 后的净利润 | 比上年同期增长:882.95%-929.31% | | | 基本每股收益 | 盈利:1.90元/股-2.00元/股 | 盈利:0.15元/股 | 早在业绩预告披露之前，牧原股份就曾公告赴港上市。据招股书 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) with a key recommendation for the "platform + ecosystem" service-oriented enterprise Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation of the pig industry policy, highlighting the importance of high-quality development and the need for cost control and capacity management [4][5][17] - The report suggests that the industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with expectations for improved profit margins and a focus on technology-driven and service-oriented companies [17] - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in leading companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry [17] Summary by Sections 1.1 Pig Industry - Recent pig prices are at 13.72 CNY/kg (down 0.02 CNY/kg MoM), with average slaughter weight slightly decreasing to 127.8 kg (down 0.18 kg MoM) [4][16] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes reducing breeding stock and controlling new capacity, with a focus on improving the entire industry chain's competitiveness [5][16] - The report anticipates further policy measures to stabilize pig prices and control production capacity, recommending Dekang Agriculture and Animal Husbandry as a key player [17] 1.2 Poultry - The report notes a persistent contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption" in the white feather chicken industry, with a focus on improving return on equity (ROE) [18] - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the integrated supply chain and those with strong breeding capabilities [18] 1.3 Feed - The report highlights positive price trends in aquatic products, with significant year-on-year increases in various fish species [20] - It recommends Haida Group due to its improved management effectiveness and capacity utilization, expecting it to exceed growth expectations [20] 1.4 Pet Industry - Online sales growth in the pet industry has slightly slowed, with notable performance from brands like Guibao and Zhongchong [21][22] - The report suggests that long-term impacts from tariff uncertainties are limited, with leading companies expected to maintain high growth rates [22] 1.5 Agricultural Products - The report discusses uncertainties in soybean imports and the rising prices of natural rubber, with a focus on macroeconomic conditions affecting the agricultural sector [23] 2. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index rose by 2.52% during the week, with the pet food sector performing the best at +5.41% [24]

证券之星消息，8月12日养殖业板块较上一交易日下跌0.04%，华英农业领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3665.92，上涨0.5%。深证成指报收于11351.63，上涨0.53%。养殖业板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300967 | 晓鸣股份 | 24.00 | 4.62% | 27.68万 | | 6.75亿 | | 300313 | *ST天山 | 10.54 | 1.54% | 10.17万 | | · 1.07亿 | | 002982 | 湘佳股份 | 16.85 | 1.44% | 15.99万 | | 2.71亿 | | 002234 | 民和股份 | 9.66 | 1.36% | 31.10万 | | 3.08亿 | | 002299 | 圣农发展 | 17.12 | 0.94% | 17.78万 | | 3.08亿 | | 000048 | 京基督农 | 16.44 | 0.86% | 7.23万 | | 2611 | | 300 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in share buybacks among A-share listed companies in China, highlighting a significant increase in buyback activities despite a decrease in the number of new buyback plans compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Buyback Plans and Implementation - As of July 12, 2023, 183 A-share companies announced 187 buyback plans with a total proposed buyback limit of 36.805 billion yuan [1]. - A total of 450 A-share companies have spent 28.936 billion yuan on buybacks this year, with 73 companies exceeding 100 million yuan in buyback amounts [4]. - The sectors with the highest buyback amounts include machinery, basic chemicals, and agriculture, indicating a trend where companies are confident about future market conditions despite current cyclical downturns [4]. Group 2: Purpose and Impact of Buybacks - The primary reasons for buybacks include market value management, capital reduction, and employee stock incentive plans, with 161 out of 187 plans aimed at employee stock incentives, accounting for approximately 86% [2]. - Experts suggest that buybacks can signal positive market sentiment and bolster investor confidence, especially when companies are perceived to be undervalued [2][3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - Since the introduction of supportive policies in November 2018, the regulatory framework for buybacks has been continuously optimized, with recent amendments aimed at easing buyback conditions [5][6]. - Following the expected implementation of revised buyback rules, it is anticipated that the number and scale of buybacks will increase, reflecting a more rational approach by companies [6].

从牧原股份年中披露的信息来看，截至2023年6月末，公司在河南、山东、安徽、东北等生猪养殖产能 较为集中的地区成立25家屠宰子公司，已投产10家屠宰厂，投产产能合计为2900万头/年。报告期内， 公司继续拓展屠宰业务销售渠道，不断提升运营能力，更好地服务下游客户。 牧原股份披露的2023年业绩预告显示，报告期内预计归属于上市公司股东的净利润为亏损39亿元至47亿 元，而去年同期为盈利132.66亿元，同比转亏。这也是牧原股份上市以来首次交出亏损"成绩单"。2023 年，牧原股份累计销售生猪6381.6万头，较上年同比增长超4%，销售收入同比下滑超9%，为1082.17亿 元。 从"猪场"到"工厂"，牧原集团正谋划为旗下上市公司牧原股份打通生猪养殖产业链上下游环节。在行业 深陷"猪周期"困扰、备受经营压力考验之际，这家头部猪企招数频出、颇受关注。 牧原股份母公司牧原集团副总裁秦牧原日前透露，在食品加工上，牧原集团与锅圈食汇深度合作，在南 阳建立锅圈牧原猪肉食品园区。锅圈食汇背后是同为"河南老乡"的港股上司公司锅圈。公开资料显示， 锅圈是一家专注于即食、即热、即煮和预制食材生产销售的企业，且与牧原方面"相识已久" ...

Group 1 - In January 2025, nearly 500 listed companies in the A-share market announced share buybacks, with a total buyback amount exceeding 18 billion yuan, surpassing the same period last year [1] - Major industry leaders are actively participating in the buyback trend, with 38 companies implementing buybacks exceeding 100 million yuan in January 2025 [2] - Kweichow Moutai leads the buyback efforts with approximately 1 billion yuan in buybacks, marking its first buyback plan in 23 years [2][3] Group 2 - China State Construction also engaged in buybacks, with an amount of 887 million yuan aimed at optimizing its capital structure [3] - Muyuan Foods announced a buyback plan of 3 to 4 billion yuan, having repurchased shares worth 1.25 billion yuan by the end of January 2025 [3] - The recent policy adjustments regarding buyback loans have stimulated market confidence, leading to over 100 companies disclosing buyback plans since the beginning of 2025 [4] Group 3 - Tianqi Materials reported a buyback of 6.524 million shares for a total of approximately 121 million yuan, funded by both its own resources and a special loan of 180 million yuan from CITIC Bank [4] - Zhongheng Group plans to repurchase shares worth 300 to 500 million yuan, supported by a loan commitment of up to 450 million yuan from Bank of Communications [5] - Shunfa Hengye intends to use its own funds and special loans for a buyback plan of 250 to 500 million yuan, with a loan commitment of up to 450 million yuan from China Construction Bank [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese livestock industry is experiencing a phase of high pig production capacity, prompting the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs to implement comprehensive production capacity regulation to mitigate risks of price volatility and overproduction [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 12, 2025, the CSI Livestock Breeding Index (930707) increased by 0.68%, with notable gains from companies such as Xiaoming Co. (300967) up 6.50%, Minhe Co. (002234) up 6.19%, and Yisheng Co. (002458) up 3.28% [1]. - The Livestock ETF (159867) rose by 0.46%, marking its third consecutive increase, with the latest price at 0.65 yuan [1]. Group 2: Policy and Regulation - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has announced plans to guide the reduction of approximately 1 million breeding sows to prevent production fluctuations and price instability [1]. - A meeting held on July 23 emphasized strict implementation of production capacity regulation measures, including the rational elimination of breeding sows and control of new production capacity [1]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Recent policies are expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially leading to a long-term increase in pig prices, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig enterprises [1]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Livestock Breeding Index account for 64.83% of the index, indicating a concentrated market structure [2].

Market Performance - In July, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3600 points, driven by policy benefits and sector rotation [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets increased significantly, with a peak trading volume of over 1.9 trillion yuan on July 22, marking a new high in four months [2] August Market Outlook - The August market performance is crucial for the future trajectory of A-shares, with many investment institutions emphasizing the importance of mid-year reports as a determining factor for market trends [2] - Historical data from 2017 to 2024 indicates that August has generally been a poor month for market performance, with multiple indices showing declines in several years [3] - Analysts predict that the market may experience a downward adjustment in August due to heavy selling pressure after the recent highs and uncertainties surrounding US-China tariff negotiations [3] Sector Focus - Investment recommendations for August include focusing on long-term dividend sectors such as banks and insurance, as well as consumer-related sectors like education and passenger vehicles [3] - The market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuation, with attention on structural opportunities during the concentrated disclosure period of mid-year reports [4] Stock Recommendations - A total of 358 stocks and ETFs were recommended by 42 brokerage firms for August, with Oriental Fortune and Muyuan Foods being the most frequently recommended stocks [7] - Analysts believe that the short-term risk appetite is likely to continue, benefiting companies like Oriental Fortune due to increased market activity and potential growth in their brokerage and financial services [7] - Muyuan Foods is expected to perform well due to its position as a leading breeding company amid rising pig prices [8] Investment Themes - The investment focus for August includes technology innovation, with an emphasis on sectors that are experiencing high growth and low valuations, as well as potential policy-driven opportunities [9] - Key investment themes highlighted include growth technology (AI, robotics, military), sectors with strong economic support or exceeding performance expectations (rare earths, precious metals), and potential policy surprises in service consumption and real estate [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture industry**, focusing on **animal protein sectors** such as **pig farming**, **dairy farming**, and **beef cattle farming** [1][2][34]. Core Insights and Arguments Pig Farming - The **pig farming cycle** is driven by production capacity, with the number of breeding sows being a critical leading indicator. This needs to be cross-verified with data on sow feed sales [1][2]. - The **African swine fever** has normalized, raising the industry's cost base, which affects the peak and elasticity of the cycle [1][4]. - **Scale farming** may extend the pig cycle and amplify price fluctuations. Secondary fattening increases price disturbances, influenced by short-term price expectations [1][5]. - The **反内卷 (anti-involution) policy** aims to reduce the number of breeding sows and lower slaughter weights to support pig prices [1][11]. - The average price of pigs is expected to rise to over **16 RMB per kilogram** by **2026**, with **牧原股份 (Muyuan Food)** potentially achieving a profit of nearly **500 RMB per head** [1][14]. Dairy Farming - The dairy industry faces challenges due to falling milk prices, currently around **3 RMB per kilogram**, down from **4.5 RMB**. However, there is potential for demand improvement due to increased willingness to have children and government subsidies for newborns [1][17]. - The beef cattle sector has a long growth cycle and is heavily reliant on imports, with significant industry clearing observed [1][18][20]. Market Dynamics - The **white chicken farming** sector is significantly impacted by overseas breeding policies, with potential for market share growth for **圣农 (Sannong)** during periods of import disruption [3][25]. - The **seafood feed** segment is expected to improve due to rising prices of common aquatic products, with **海大集团 (Haida Group)** showing strong performance in this area [3][27]. Other Important Insights - The **agricultural new consumption trends** include rapid growth in pet food and pet healthcare sectors, indicating new growth potential beyond traditional areas [6][34]. - The **agricultural input products** like feed and veterinary products serve as lagging indicators in the animal protein supply chain, aiding in capacity data assessment [7][34]. - The **grain security** theme is increasingly important, with policies and market dynamics needing close attention [8][30]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on core assets like **牧原 (Muyuan)** and **温氏 (Wens Food)**, which have strong cost control and are less affected by the anti-involution policy [12][13]. - The **港股 (Hong Kong stock market)** upstream livestock companies are currently in a challenging phase but are expected to improve by **2026** as the new cycle begins [22]. - **海大集团 (Haida Group)** is recommended for its strong market position and growth potential in both domestic and international markets [27]. Future Trends - The pig farming sector is expected to benefit from the anti-involution policy, leading to a new upward price cycle in **2026** [15][34]. - The **meat cattle industry** is facing significant challenges, including price declines and industry losses, with a low degree of scale [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the agriculture industry, particularly in the animal protein sectors.