Core Viewpoint - The securities industry is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of 2025, with a focus on high-growth firms with low valuations, well-structured leading comprehensive brokers, and those with potential for mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Group 1: Industry Performance and Outlook - As of June 18, 2025, the A-share securities index has declined by 7.51% since the beginning of the year, but the industry's fundamentals continue to improve, supported by active trading and ongoing capital market reforms [2]. - Citic Securities forecasts a 17.3% year-on-year growth in net profit for the securities industry in 2025, with an annualized ROE expected to rise to 6% [2]. - Huatai Securities highlights that the new "National Nine Articles" and the accompanying "1+N" policy framework will foster a favorable long-term investment market ecosystem, benefiting the growth of securities firms [2]. Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Recent mergers, such as Guotai Junan's absorption of Haitong Securities and the acquisition of Minsheng Securities by Guolian Securities, indicate a trend where large brokers consolidate to strengthen their positions, while smaller brokers can achieve rapid growth through acquisitions [3]. - Dongwu Securities suggests that mergers and acquisitions may drive supply-side reforms in the securities industry amid a backdrop of reduced fees [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Institutions recommend focusing on three investment themes: brokers expected to achieve high growth in mid-2025 with low valuations, leading comprehensive brokers with balanced business structures and strong professional capabilities, and brokers with potential for mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Citic Securities emphasizes that the combination of interest rate cuts and supportive policies will likely stabilize valuations in the securities sector, enhancing its resilience [4]. - The analysis of listed brokers indicates that the industry is undergoing significant transformation, with a focus on enhancing trading capabilities and diversifying asset management strategies [5].

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. is set to publicly issue perpetual subordinated bonds (Phase II) aimed at professional investors, which will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange starting June 19, 2025 [1] Group 1: Bond Details - The bond is named "Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. 2025 Perpetual Subordinated Bonds (Phase II)" [1] - The bond code is 524302, and it has a credit rating of AAA/AAA from United Ratings [2] - The total issuance amount is 30 billion yuan [2] - The bond has a fixed interest rate of 2.11% and will pay interest annually unless the issuer exercises the right to defer interest payments [2] - The issuance period is from June 11 to June 12, 2025, with the interest commencement date on June 12, 2025 [2] - The bond will have a re-pricing cycle of every 5 years, with the issuer having the option to extend the bond term at the end of each cycle [2] - The bond's issuance price is set at 100 yuan per bond [2]

Core Insights - The emergence of DeepSeek in 2025 is revolutionizing the financial industry by enhancing market prediction models with its dynamic self-correction capabilities and advanced data mining abilities [1][10] - Traditional market prediction models often suffer from fixed weight configurations, leading to distorted judgment results, which DeepSeek aims to address [1][10] Group 1: Impact on Financial Industry - DeepSeek's dynamic self-correction ability optimizes weight based on historical data and current realities, improving prediction accuracy [1] - The model's data mining capabilities allow for the discovery of more relevant data, breaking linear thinking and avoiding "black box" issues [1] - DeepSeek enhances overall strategy intelligence through its powerful reasoning and complex decision-making capabilities [1] Group 2: Educational Initiatives - Guosen Securities has reported a 0.27% increase in annualized returns and a 1.08-fold increase in the Sharpe ratio after integrating DeepSeek into their simulation trading [3] - A masterclass titled "DeepSeek Restructures Strategy Investment Paradigm" has been launched to educate users on utilizing DeepSeek for investment [3][7] - The course, led by Wang Kai, covers various topics including asset allocation optimization, risk parity strategies, and understanding policy semantics [3][11] Group 3: Course Content and Structure - The masterclass is divided into eleven parts, focusing on practical techniques for asset allocation and investment strategies using DeepSeek [3][11] - Key topics include the application of AI in multi-asset frameworks, recreating classic investment portfolios, and understanding market timing and sector rotation [11][12] - The course aims to provide insights into the behavior logic behind key financial institution statements and the implications for investment strategies [11][12]

（本页以下无正文） （本页无正文，为《国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行永 续次级债券（第二期）在深圳证券交易所上市的公告》的盖章页） 8日 国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者公开发行 永续次级债券（第二期）在深圳证券交易所上市的公告 根据深圳证券交易所债券上市的有关规定，国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年 面向专业投资者公开发行永续次级债券（第二期）符合深圳证券交易所债券上市 条件，将于 2025 年 6 月 19 日起在深圳证券交易所上市，并面向专业投资者中的 机构投资者交易，交易方式包括匹配成交、点击成交、询价成交、竞买成交和协 商成交。债券相关要素如下： | 债券名称 | 国信证券股份有限公司 年面向专业投资者公开发行永续次级 2025 | | --- | --- | | | 债券（第二期） | | 债券简称 | 国证 25 Y2 | | 债券代码 | 524302 | | 信用评级 | AAA/AAA | | 评级机构 | 联合资信评估股份有限公司 | | 发行总额（亿元） | 30 | | 债券期限 | 本期债券以每 5 个计息年度为 1 个重定价周期。在每个重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report outlines the verification opinion of Guosen Securities regarding the listing and circulation of restricted shares from the offline placement of Zhejiang Lanyu Digital Technology Co., Ltd.'s initial public offering (IPO) [1][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of the Initial Public Offering - Zhejiang Lanyu Digital Technology Co., Ltd. has received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its IPO, issuing 20 million shares, which will be listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Growth Enterprise Market on December 20, 2024 [1]. 2. Share Capital Structure Post-IPO - Before the IPO, the total share capital was 60 million shares, which increased to 80 million shares post-IPO. The unrestricted shares amount to 18,965,755 shares (23.71%), while restricted shares total 61,034,245 shares (76.29%) [2]. 3. Conditions for Lifting Share Restrictions - The offline placement investors are subject to a lock-up arrangement where 90% of their allocated shares are unrestricted, while 10% are subject to a 6-month lock-up period starting from the IPO date. The total number of shares subject to the 6-month lock-up is approximately 103,424.5 thousand shares, representing 5.17% of the total IPO shares [2][3]. 4. Compliance with Commitments - All shareholders holding restricted shares have adhered to their commitments during the lock-up period, with no violations reported that would affect the listing of these restricted shares [3]. 5. Changes in Share Capital Structure - The share capital structure before and after the lifting of restrictions shows a decrease in restricted shares from 79,344,518 (76.29%) to 78,000,000 (75.00%), while unrestricted shares increased from 24,655,482 (23.71%) to 26,000,000 (25.00%) [4]. 6. Verification Opinion of the Sponsor - Guosen Securities confirms that the lifting of restrictions on shares complies with relevant regulations and that the shareholders have fulfilled their commitments made during the IPO. The information disclosed regarding the lifting of restrictions is deemed true, accurate, and complete [5].

Core Viewpoint - The education sector is expected to outperform the market, driven by demographic advantages and regulatory normalization, with significant opportunities in K12 education and vocational training [1][2]. Industry Trends and Outlook - Policies such as birth allowances are positively impacting the education sector, while K12 education is undergoing normalized regulation, enhancing consumer expectations [1]. - The decline in birth rates is leading to a decrease in the number of primary school students, with the Greater Bay Area showing significant demographic advantages [1]. - There is a strong desire for higher education, with increasing enrollment rates in general high schools and growing recognition of vocational education [1]. AI Education Development - The acceleration of AI education products is benefiting from technological advancements, with traditional education brands rapidly developing their own AI solutions [2]. - The education sector is characterized by strong domestic demand and essential needs, although there may be further differentiation in payment willingness for different educational services [2]. Market Performance Review - From January 1 to June 12, 2025, the education index rose by 5.04%, outperforming the CSI 800 index, which fell by 0.46% [3]. - Companies like China Eastern Education are leading in vocational training, while K12 education shows significant differentiation, with some firms like Gaotu and Youdao reaching profitability [3]. Subsector Analysis and Outlook - In primary and junior high education, the implementation of policies like "double reduction" is affecting K9 schools, but demand for high-quality educational services remains strong [4]. - The high school sector is experiencing a favorable policy environment, with continued population advantages expected to support growth [4]. - Vocational training is in demand, although the recruitment of students in secondary vocational schools is under pressure [4]. - The number of candidates for postgraduate exams and studying abroad has declined, indicating potential negative growth pressures in these areas [4]. Vocational Training and Public Examination - Vocational training is closely linked to economic cycles and industry conditions, with a high number of candidates for public examinations but a decreasing pass rate [5].

Group 1: Contract Benchmark and Implicit Benchmark - The performance comparison benchmark of public funds plays a crucial role in fund operations, serving as a standard for measuring investment performance and a basis for fund manager evaluation [1][5] - There exists a mismatch between the contract benchmark and the actual investment style of public funds, leading to the identification of an "implicit benchmark" that aligns more closely with the fund's net value trajectory [1][7] - A quantitative method is proposed to identify the implicit benchmark for each fund, revealing that active equity funds have lower tracking errors relative to implicit benchmarks compared to contract benchmarks [15][18] Group 2: Explicit Risk and Implicit Risk - Risks associated with funds can be categorized into explicit risks, which are known and documented, and implicit risks, which are unknown and emerge with changing market conditions [2][29] - Implicit risks can significantly impact asset returns, necessitating a refined approach to risk assessment in fund performance evaluation [2][29] Group 3: Improvement of Selection Factors from Implicit Risk Perspective - The implicit risk model demonstrates a higher explanatory power for fund returns compared to the Fama five-factor model, with an average R-squared of 92.32% since 2010, surpassing the 84.94% of the Fama model [3][63] - The development of a composite selection factor adjusted for implicit risk has shown significant improvements in performance metrics, including a RankIC mean of 13.99% and an annualized RankICIR of 3.18 [3][55] Group 4: FOF Selected Portfolio Construction - The increasing allocation of public funds to Hong Kong stocks necessitates their consideration in portfolio construction, with a FOF portfolio yielding an annualized excess return of 8.86% relative to the median of active equity funds [4][6] - The FOF portfolio maintains a low tracking error of 3.52% and a high information ratio of 2.31, indicating robust performance stability [4][6] Group 5: Performance Evaluation from Absolute and Relative Perspectives - Traditional performance evaluation methods based on absolute returns may not accurately reflect the performance of funds with different implicit benchmarks, highlighting the need for relative performance assessments [21][24] - The analysis of funds with the same contract benchmark but differing implicit benchmarks reveals that absolute returns can be misleading, necessitating a relative evaluation approach [21][24] Group 6: Challenges in Traditional Risk Separation - Traditional multi-factor models, such as the Fama five-factor model, may not fully capture the complexities of fund returns due to the presence of unobserved implicit risks [41][45] - The need for a more dynamic approach to risk separation is emphasized, as traditional models may lead to biased estimates of fund performance [41][45] Group 7: Improvement of Selection Factors Based on Implicit Risk Model - The implicit risk model can enhance the stability and predictive power of various selection factors, including the Sharpe ratio and hidden trading ability, by adjusting for implicit risks [70][81] - The adjusted selection factors demonstrate improved performance metrics, such as higher RankIC and win rates, indicating a more reliable assessment of fund performance [70][81]

Core Viewpoint - The successful issuance of the "2025 First Phase Targeted Technology Innovation Bond" by Dongfang Fuhai marks a significant milestone in China's bond market, showcasing innovative financial products that support technology innovation and private investment institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bond issuance was led by Guosen Securities, with a total issuance scale of 400 million yuan and a maturity of 5+3+2 years, achieving a subscription multiple of 6.325 times and a coupon rate of 1.85% [1]. - This bond is notable for being the first of its kind in several aspects, including being the first successfully listed on the capital market and the first to receive direct support from the central bank's risk-sharing tools [1]. Group 2: Market Impact and Recognition - The successful issuance reflects the market's high recognition of Dongfang Fuhai's professional capabilities and its role as a leading institution in the venture capital industry [2]. - The bond's issuance is seen as a crucial step in promoting the integration of technology innovation and industrial innovation, highlighting the importance of financial capital in supporting high-level technological self-reliance [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Guosen Securities aims to enhance financial support for technology enterprises and venture capital institutions, contributing to the development of a high-level self-reliant technological system and promoting high-quality economic growth [2].

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，互联网巨头持续加大AI基础设施投资，算力租赁厂商受益明 显。阿里巴巴-SW(09988)预计未来三年，将投入超过3800亿元，用于建设云和AI硬件基础设施，总额 超过去十年总和。腾讯控股(00700)预计2025年资本开支持续上行，主要满足公司AI相关需求。目前已 经有众多上市公司积极在算力租赁布局，部分公司已经披露相关订单。 国信证券主要观点如下： 阿里和字节持续推出Agent产品，创业公司百花齐放 阿里Qwen3性价比再大幅提升，以 DeepSeek-R1三分之一的参数规模，就达成了性能的全面超越， 仅需 4 张 H20 GPU 便能部署完整功能的 Qwen3 模型，成为全球最强开源模型。Qwen3原生支持MCP，C端 积极探索"心流"和"夸克"产品;B端和亚信科技等合作推动AI本地化落地。字节在多模态领域积极布局， 扣子空间开启内测，重点突破复杂任务 Agent。同时，大量创新Agent也表现不俗，如Manus作为通用场 景Agent，Lovart 深度垂直于设计场景，Flowith的画布式交互，实现无限流。多个产品已经形成可观收 入。 风险提示：AI终端表现不及 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on four main lines of investment opportunities in the securities sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the main drivers for the brokerage market this week are the easing of US-China negotiations and the ongoing theme of mergers and acquisitions in the industry [2]. - It emphasizes the expected improvement in the performance of the brokerage sector in the first half of 2025, with a notable mismatch between high profitability and low valuations, suggesting a good cost-performance ratio for investments [2]. - The report also notes the potential for significant improvements in the combined ratio (COR) for non-auto insurance due to the implementation of mandatory insurance policies and the introduction of standard clauses for liability insurance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Securities Sector - The report mentions that the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Central Huijin Investment to become the actual controller of eight financial institutions, including Changcheng Guorui Securities [2]. - It discusses the upcoming review of the acquisition of Wanhe Securities by Guosen Securities, which is expected to enhance the theme of mergers and acquisitions in the brokerage sector [2]. - The report recommends focusing on the following investment lines: 1. Hong Kong Stock Exchange: Anticipated growth in Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [2]. 2. Sichuan Shuangma: Potential benefits from policy catalysts in the venture capital industry [2]. 3. Brokerage firms with expected performance exceeding expectations in H1 2025 [2]. 4. Multi-financial entities with strong growth certainty, such as Shengye and Jiufang Zhitu [2]. Insurance Sector - The report outlines the introduction of mandatory liability insurance for high-risk industries, which is expected to improve the COR for non-auto insurance significantly [3]. - It details the core content of the new liability insurance standard clauses, including strict insurance responsibilities and fixed medical expense limits [3]. - The report suggests that the insurance sector is likely to undergo a value reassessment, with a focus on low valuations and companies expected to perform well in Q2 [4]. - It highlights the ongoing trend of insurance funds increasing their holdings in high-dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector [32][33].