Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Chuanheng Co., Ltd. has appointed Guosen Securities as the sponsor for its stock issuance to specific targets, with designated representatives Zhang Heng and Yuan Ye [1] - On December 17, 2025, Guosen Securities conducted a training session for Chuanheng Co., Ltd.'s directors and executives, focusing on regulatory policies and compliance requirements [1] - The training was held in a hybrid format, combining in-person and online methods, and included the preparation of materials and notifications prior to the session [1]

Core Viewpoint - The merger of CICC with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is fairly priced and aligns with policy direction, significantly enhancing CICC's capital strength, business network, and overall competitiveness, providing strong momentum for its long-term development strategy [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - The merger will substantially increase CICC's capital and asset scale, with total assets expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan and a projected 48% increase in net assets attributable to shareholders [1] - Following the merger, CICC's industry ranking will rise to the 4th position [1] Group 2: Strategic Goals - CICC's development plan aims to become a "full-factor, global, and all-capable" comprehensive modern investment bank by 2025, focusing on customer-centric services and integrating human resources, capital, and data (including AI) [1] - The merger is a key catalyst for accelerating CICC's progress towards its 3.0 strategic goals, significantly enhancing its comprehensive competitiveness and international influence [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Considering the positive factors of capital enhancement, business synergy, and strategic advancement, the company maintains an "outperform the market" rating [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to significant disruptions in offline retail, the profit forecast for Tmall (滔搏) has been slightly lowered, with expected net profits for FY2026-2028 being 1.22 billion, 1.33 billion, and 1.49 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%, +9.6%, and +11.5% [1] - The reasonable valuation range has been adjusted to 3.2 to 3.5 HKD, down from the previous range of 3.8 to 4.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14 to 15 times for FY2027 [1] Group 2 - In Q3 of FY2026, the total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year, with the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreasing by 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [3] - The company is optimizing its offline store network by cautiously closing underperforming stores and focusing on extending online channels for offline stores, with a significant reduction in the number of store closures expected this year compared to last year [3] Group 3 - The discount rate has deepened year-on-year due to the increased proportion of online channels, but the extent of discounting has narrowed compared to the first half of the fiscal year [4] - Nike's Q2 FY2026 performance slightly exceeded previous guidance and market expectations, with revenue of 12.4 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while the Greater China region continues to face significant pressure [4] - Adidas reported Q3 results that fell short of market expectations for revenue but exceeded expectations for operating profit, with a 12% year-on-year increase in revenue for the Adidas brand [5] Group 4 - The company has maintained a strong growth momentum for its main brand, Adidas, with expectations of double-digit growth for FY2025, while Nike's performance in FY2026 Q2 was better than previous guidance but faced challenges in the Greater China market [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market and opening a running brand collective store [6]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities has slightly lowered the profit forecast for Tmall (06110) due to significant disruptions in offline retail, expecting net profits for FY2026-2028 to be 1.22/1.33/1.49 billion yuan, down from previous estimates of 1.29/1.41/1.57 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5.3%/+9.6%/+11.5% [1] Group 1 - The total sales amount for the retail and wholesale business in Q3 FY2026 recorded a high single-digit decline year-on-year [2] - As of November 30, the gross sales area of direct-operated stores decreased by 1.3% compared to the previous quarter and by 13.4% year-on-year [2] - The online channel's growth rate remains better than that of the offline channel, but the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first half of the year due to base effects [2] Group 2 - The total inventory at the end of Q3 decreased year-on-year, maintaining good turnover efficiency, but the promotional atmosphere in the industry has made it challenging to manage inventory healthily [3] - Nike's FY2026 Q2 revenue was $12.4 billion, up 1% year-on-year, slightly better than previous guidance and consensus expectations, with regional performance varying significantly [3] - The gross margin decline was less than previously guided, with North America leading revenue growth while the Greater China region faced significant pressure [3] Group 3 - Future Q3 revenue is expected to decline by a low single-digit percentage, with gross margin expected to decrease by approximately 175-225 basis points [4] - Adidas' Q3 revenue did not meet consensus expectations, but operating profit exceeded expectations, with a 12% year-on-year growth in brand revenue [4] - Adidas has raised its full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected business performance [4] Group 4 - The company is optimistic about its operational resilience and long-term cash returns [5] - The retail pressure remains high with a high single-digit decline, but inventory improvement and a reduction in discount rates have been observed [6] - The company has been increasing its focus on outdoor and running segments, becoming the exclusive agent for several outdoor brands in the Chinese market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the rapid growth of Zhongchuan Innovation's (03931) energy storage battery shipments, emphasizing its collaboration with leading clients for domestic and international expansion [1] Group 1: Battery Shipment Growth - The company is experiencing significant growth in battery shipments, with an estimated 2025 output of nearly 70 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of over 50% [2] - In October 2025, the company's global market share in the power battery sector reached 4.7%, marking a continuous year-on-year increase, and it ranked among the top three globally for the first time [1][2] - The company has diversified its customer base in the power battery sector, collaborating with major players such as XPeng, Leap Motor, GAC, and Changan, while also securing orders from leading overseas passenger vehicle clients [2] Group 2: Energy Storage Battery Development - The company has launched multiple products, including the 314Ah, 392Ah, 588Ah, and 684Ah battery cells, to meet diverse customer needs [3] - The estimated energy storage battery shipment for 2025 is projected to reach around 45 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of over 75% [3] - The company is actively expanding its overseas presence, successfully delivering energy storage batteries in regions such as Saudi Arabia and Europe, while also pursuing local customers [3] Group 3: Financial Forecast Adjustments - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 downwards due to fluctuations in shipment structures affecting net profit, while increasing forecasts for 2026-2027 based on positive demand trends in energy storage and commercial vehicles [4] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 1.215 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.904 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 120%, and 46% [4] - The dynamic PE ratios for 2025-2027 are expected to be 34.9, 15.8, and 10.8 times, maintaining an outperform rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities highlights the rapid growth of Zhongchuang Innovation's energy storage battery shipments, achieving fast domestic and international development in collaboration with leading clients [1]. Group 1: Market Position and Growth - As of October 2025, Zhongchuang Innovation holds a 4.7% share of the global power battery market, showing a continuous year-on-year increase, with October's installation volume surpassing LG Energy for the first time, placing it among the top three globally [2]. - The company is expected to achieve nearly 70 GWh in power battery shipments by 2025, with a year-on-year growth exceeding 50%, driven by expanding domestic and international client bases [3]. Group 2: Product Development and Client Collaboration - Zhongchuang Innovation is one of the earliest companies to mass-produce 314Ah cells, continuously optimizing and upgrading its products, launching various models such as 314Ah second generation, 392Ah, 588Ah, and 684Ah to meet diverse customer needs [4]. - The company has established deep collaborations with clients like Sungrow Power Supply and CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, steadily increasing its market share while accelerating overseas expansion with successful deliveries in regions like Saudi Arabia and Europe [4]. Group 3: Financial Projections - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards due to fluctuations in shipment structure affecting net profit, while the forecasts for 2026-2027 have been raised, reflecting positive impacts from storage and commercial vehicle demand and successful overseas client development [5]. - Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.215 billion, 2.675 billion, and 3.904 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 106%, 120%, and 46%, and corresponding EPS of 0.69, 1.51, and 2.20 yuan [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Communications Administration reported that 71 apps (SDKs) were found to infringe on user rights, highlighting ongoing issues with user data protection in the app industry [1]. Group 1: Company Issues - Guoxin Futures Co., Ltd.'s app, Guoxin Futures (version 1.0.8), was flagged for illegally collecting personal information [2]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd.'s apps, Shenwan Hongyuan (version 1.3.81) and Shenwan Hongyuan Securities (version 6.0.6), faced issues related to difficulties in account cancellation [3][4]. - Guoxin Futures is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Guoxin Securities, as indicated in its annual report [5]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shenwan Hongyuan, as per its annual report [5].

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between Antofagasta and a leading domestic copper smelter to set the 2026 copper concentrate processing fees at $0/ton and $0/lb is a significant reduction from the 2025 fees of $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb, indicating a shift in the copper smelting industry dynamics due to supply-demand mismatches and favorable by-product recovery rates [1][2]. Group 1: Processing Fees and Market Dynamics - The long-term processing fees for copper concentrate have been set at $0/ton for 2026, down from $21.25/ton in 2025, reflecting a challenging negotiation environment and a delay in finalizing agreements compared to previous years [1][2]. - The proportion of long-term contracts may decline, with many large smelters seeing their long-term contract ratios drop below 80% due to tight copper concentrate supplies, which could weaken smelter profitability [2]. Group 2: Factors Behind Zero Processing Fees - The zero processing fee is attributed to multiple factors, including supply disruptions and high recovery rates, with domestic smelting processes achieving recovery rates of 98% or higher, leading to additional profits from copper prices [3][4]. - Sulfuric acid by-product revenues are at historical highs, with current prices nearing 1000 yuan/ton, significantly contributing to smelter profitability [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Implications and Future Outlook - The zero processing fee serves as a warning sign for the industry, potentially prompting regulatory measures to address the situation and improve the long-term market structure [5]. - Chinese copper smelters are positioned competitively due to advanced technology and cost control, which may lead to a favorable industry outlook if capacity adjustment measures are implemented [7][8].

Global Assets - The "cross-year red envelope" and "spring market" phenomenon is observed, with Q4 historically showing higher stock index gains due to seasonal effects, dovish signals from central banks, and increased risk appetite during the holiday season [3][8] - In Q1, commodities show strong seasonal performance, with gold averaging a 4% gain, silver at 3.4%, and oil at 4.85%, influenced by OPEC adjustments and seasonal demand [10][14] - Global assets exhibit a strong resonance during China's "spring market," with increased odds of gains across global equity assets during this period [3][18] AH Market Trends - The current trading window is less sensitive to fundamentals, with the spring market expected to be neutral to strong in 2026 [3] - Historical data shows that A-shares have a higher win rate during the period from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions, while H-shares perform better from New Year to Spring Festival [3][34] - The main upward trend typically covers the period from the Spring Festival to the start of the Two Sessions, with a 94% overlap with actual upward trends [3] Style Patterns - Small-cap stocks outperform large-cap stocks with a 75% win rate, particularly during the spring market [3] - Growth stocks tend to outperform value stocks, with asymmetric potential returns where losing years are limited to a 4% drop, while winning years can exceed 10% [3] - The spring market shows a clear style switch between large-cap value and small-cap growth stocks, particularly around the Spring Festival [3] Industry Patterns - The spring market does not determine the main industry trends for the year, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, computing, and media showing relative strength [3] - Historical data indicates that communication and military industries have a higher probability of positive returns during the Spring Festival to Two Sessions period [3] - The overlap of top-performing industries during the spring market with the previous year's main trends is relatively low, indicating weak guiding effects [3] Technical and Practical Patterns - Entry points for small-cap stocks are recommended within the week before the Spring Festival, while large-cap growth and ChiNext stocks should be positioned early [3] - Important exit conditions include a single-day drop exceeding 2% and a weak MACD signal [3]

Group 1 - The report indicates that in the week from December 15 to December 19, 2025, overseas markets experienced more declines than gains, with slight valuation changes. The Asia-Pacific region saw a broad decline, led by South Korea, while the Eurozone and the UK saw increases. Notably, the Nikkei 225 and the Korean Composite Index fell by 2.61% and 3.52%, respectively, but their P/E ratios expanded by 0.92x and 2.57x, indicating downward revisions in earnings expectations [3][8]. - In the same week, A-shares showed narrow fluctuations with slight valuation expansion. The large-cap value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap value rising by 1.52% while large-cap growth fell by 1.39%. The report highlights that the valuation distribution is asymmetric, with significant P/E contractions in small-cap growth and the National Index 2000 [3][23]. - The report notes that the downstream consumer sector has a favorable valuation attractiveness. The communication sector has the highest valuation percentiles, with rolling 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year averages of 96.80%, 98.93%, and 99.36%, respectively. Other consumer sectors like social services and beauty care also show relatively high valuation attractiveness [3][26]. Group 2 - The report highlights that the new energy sector experienced a broad decline, with photovoltaic stocks leading the drop at -3.91%. However, sectors such as insurance and military industry performed well, indicating a divergence in sector performance. The report also notes that some industries, like artificial intelligence and new energy, saw significant P/E expansions despite falling stock prices, reflecting downward revisions in profit expectations [3][23]. - The report provides a detailed valuation comparison of various indices, indicating that the core broad-based indices (CSI 300, Shanghai Composite, and Wind All A) are all above the 75th percentile level since 2010. In contrast, other indices are positioned between the median and the 75th percentile [3][28]. - The report concludes that large-cap growth stocks have superior valuation attractiveness, with their P/E, P/B, and P/S ratios showing higher percentile rankings compared to small-cap value stocks, which have lower valuation attractiveness across multiple time frames [3][26].