本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 国信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 10 月 24 日发出第 五届董事会第四十五次会议（临时）（以下简称"本次会议"）书面通知。本次会 议于 2025 年 10 月 30 日在公司以现场和电话结合方式召开。本次会议应出席董 事 11 名，实际出席董事 11 名，其中姚飞、胡昊、李石山、张雁南、李进一、朱 英姿、张守文 7 位董事以电话方式出席，其余 4 位董事以现场方式出席。张纳 沙董事长主持会议，部分高级管理人员列席了会议。本次会议的召开符合《公司 法》等相关法律法规和《公司章程》的规定。 董事会审议了会议通知所列明的议案，并通过决议如下： 一、审议通过《2025 年第三季度报告》 议案表决情况：十一票赞成、零票反对、零票弃权。 本议案已经公司第五届董事会审计委员会 2025 年第七次会议审议通过。 《2025 年第三季度报告》与本决议同日公告。 二、审议通过《2025 年第三季度风险管理报告》 证券代码：002736 证券简称：国信证券 公告编号：2025-084 国信证券股份有限公司 ...

国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 证券代码：002736 证券简称：国信证券 公告编号：2025-083 国信证券股份有限公司 2025 年第三季度报告 1.董事会及董事、高级管理人员保证季度报告的真实、准确、完整，不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述 或重大遗漏，并承担个别和连带的法律责任。 2.公司负责人张纳沙、主管会计工作负责人及会计机构负责人周中国声明：保证季度报告中财务信 息的真实、准确、完整。 3.第三季度财务会计报告未经审计。 一、主要财务数据 公司因会计政策变更追溯调整以前年度会计数据。 （一）主要会计数据和财务指标 单位：万元 | 项目 | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | | 本报告期 比上年同 期增减 | 年初至报告 期末 | 上年同期 | | 年初至报 告期末比 上年同期 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 调整前 | 调整后 | 调整后 | | 调整前 | 调整后 | 调整后 | | 营业总收入 | 812,774.25 | 451,349.83 | 404,142.45 | 101.11 ...

Financial Performance - Total operating revenue for the third quarter reached CNY 812,774.25 million, a 101.11% increase compared to CNY 404,142.45 million in the same period last year[6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 376,966.31 million, reflecting a 116.65% increase from CNY 174,000.30 million year-on-year[6] - Basic earnings per share increased by 140.00% to CNY 0.36 from CNY 0.15 in the previous year[8] - Total operating revenue for the first nine months of 2025 reached CNY 19.20 billion, a significant increase from CNY 11.34 billion in the same period of 2024, representing a growth of approximately 69.1%[38] - Net profit for the first nine months of 2025 was CNY 9.14 billion, compared to CNY 4.88 billion in 2024, marking an increase of about 87.5%[40] - The basic earnings per share for the first nine months of 2025 was CNY 0.85, compared to CNY 0.41 in 2024, indicating an increase of approximately 107.3%[40] Assets and Liabilities - Total assets as of September 30, 2025, amounted to CNY 56,108,735.52 million, an 11.88% increase from CNY 50,150,604.36 million at the end of the previous year[8] - The company's total assets increased to CNY 561.09 billion in 2025 from CNY 501.51 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of approximately 11.9%[37] - The company's total liabilities increased to CNY 433.72 billion in 2025 from CNY 382.81 billion in 2024, an increase of about 13.3%[37] - The total equity attributable to shareholders increased by 7.13% to CNY 12,715,410.44 million from CNY 11,869,204.45 million at the end of the previous year[8] - The company's equity attributable to shareholders increased to CNY 127.15 billion in 2025 from CNY 118.69 billion in 2024, reflecting a growth of about 7.4%[37] Income and Expenses - Net interest income for the first nine months of 2025 was CNY 116,913.11 million, a 45.36% increase from CNY 80,427.99 million in the same period last year[16] - Net commission and fee income rose by 71.92% to CNY 770,791.90 million from CNY 448,340.49 million year-on-year[16] - Investment income for the first nine months increased by 97.72% to CNY 820,036.73 million compared to CNY 414,737.79 million in the same period last year[16] - Business and management expenses rose by 41.50% to 798,911.75 million, mainly due to variable costs increasing with revenue growth[18] - Total operating expenses for the first nine months of 2025 were CNY 8.22 billion, up from CNY 6.18 billion in 2024, representing an increase of about 33.1%[38] Cash Flow - The company reported a significant decrease in cash flow from operating activities, with a net cash flow of CNY 2,549,017.62 million, down 54.65% from the previous year[8] - Net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 54.65% to 2,549,017.62 million, mainly due to net outflow from proprietary investment business[18] - Cash inflow from operating activities for the first nine months of 2025 was CNY 75.28 billion, a decrease of 10.1% compared to CNY 83.68 billion in the same period of 2024[42] - Cash inflow from investment activities totaled CNY 4.66 billion, significantly up from CNY 429.52 million in the previous year[42] - Net cash flow from financing activities was CNY 2.34 billion, a turnaround from a net outflow of CNY 18.90 billion in the same period of 2024[44] Shareholder Information - The top three shareholders hold a combined 67.08% of shares, with Shenzhen Investment Holding Co., Ltd. holding 31.47%[22] - The company acquired 96.08% of Wanhe Securities, totaling 2,183,877,825 shares, following approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission[26] - The total number of shares increased from 9,612,429,377 to 10,241,743,060 after the issuance of new shares[27] - The company's registered capital changed from RMB 9,612,429,377 to RMB 10,241,743,060[28] Regulatory and Compliance - The company has adjusted its accounting policies retroactively, impacting previously reported financial data due to new regulations on standard warehouse receipt transactions[9] - The risk coverage ratio rose by 4.99 percentage points to 350.39%, exceeding the regulatory minimum of 120%[20] - The liquidity coverage ratio decreased by 141.26 percentage points to 269.55%, still above the regulatory minimum of 120%[20] Capital and Financing Activities - The company issued bonds totaling RMB 24 billion and RMB 38 billion with coupon rates of 2.15% and 1.96%, respectively[31] - The company completed the issuance of perpetual subordinated bonds totaling RMB 40 billion at a coupon rate of 2.04%[31] - The company successfully issued short-term financing bonds in various tranches, totaling RMB 20 billion to RMB 30 billion with coupon rates ranging from 1.55% to 1.75%[31] - The company raised CNY 72.59 billion through bond issuance in 2025, compared to CNY 51.64 billion in 2024[44] Cash and Deposits - The company's cash and cash equivalents reached RMB 122,577,710,291.32 as of September 30, 2025, up from RMB 94,698,402,778.84 at the end of 2024[33] - Client funds deposits increased to RMB 109,820,104,552.08 from RMB 83,958,749,238.55 year-over-year[33] - The company reported a decrease in receivables from RMB 3,373,006,664.42 to RMB 3,286,493,634.81[33]

Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is rapidly expanding, leading major global cloud service providers (CSPs) to increase procurement of NVIDIA GPU solutions and expand data center infrastructure [1] - Capital expenditures for eight major CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, are projected to exceed $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% year-on-year increase [1] - By 2026, total capital expenditures for CSPs are expected to reach a new high of over $520 billion, driven by the continued rollout of AI cabinet solutions [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that global cloud capital expenditures could reach $820 billion by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 31%, significantly surpassing the market consensus of 16% [1] - Capital expenditures for AI servers are anticipated to grow by 70%, indicating an unprecedented growth trajectory [1] Industry Focus - The AI sector is identified as a high-growth investment theme with strong demand certainty, prompting recommendations to focus on companies such as Hon Hai Precision Industry, Huaqin Technology, Huadian Technology, Loongson Technology, Lenovo Group, Luxshare Precision, and Amlogic [1]

Core Insights - The launch of the "Leading·Smart Talk" project under the "Leading 30" wealth management brand by Guosen Securities aims to create a high-end communication platform for clients, gathering industry experts and leaders for in-depth discussions on investment strategies and market trends [1][2] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Leading·Smart Talk" project is a key component of the high-end service system under the "Leading 30" brand, focusing on closed-door seminars and deep dialogues [1] - The inaugural event took place on October 16 at Guosen Financial Building, featuring award-winning private fund managers discussing investment insights on various assets [1] - The project will be held regularly, inviting top investment institutions to share market outlooks, helping clients better understand market dynamics [2] Group 2: Brand Philosophy - The "Leading 30" brand is designed to provide comprehensive wealth management solutions throughout the entire lifecycle, moving away from single product sales to a more holistic approach [2] - The brand aims to respond to the historical transformation of China's capital market and the evolving wealth management needs of residents [2] Group 3: Competitive Advantages - The brand emphasizes three main advantages: leading concepts, professional expertise, and superior service [3] - It categorizes wealth management into three levels: product research, strategy production, and client service, adhering to the principle of "client interests first" [3] - A systematic research framework is established, combining quantitative and qualitative analysis to create tailored strategy solutions for clients [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Guosen Securities plans to enhance its wealth management services by integrating professional research, innovative services, and a closed-loop system of "research-driven strategies and strategy-empowered services" [3] - The company aims to support investors on their wealth progression journey, ensuring a stable and prosperous future in wealth management [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that large language models (LLMs) are transforming vast amounts of unstructured text into quantifiable Alpha factors, fundamentally expanding the information boundaries of traditional investment research [1] - AI technology is deeply reconstructing asset allocation theory and practice across three levels: information foundation, decision-making mechanisms, and system architecture [1] - LLMs enhance the understanding of financial reports and policies, while deep reinforcement learning (DRL) shifts decision frameworks from static optimization to dynamic adaptability [1] Group 2 - The practical application of AI investment research systems relies on a modular collaboration mechanism rather than the performance of a single model [2] - The architecture of AI investment systems, as demonstrated by BlackRock's AlphaAgents, involves model division of labor, enhancing decision robustness and interpretability [2] - This modular approach creates a replicable technology stack from signal generation to portfolio execution, laying a solid foundation for building practical investment agents [2] Group 3 - Leading institutions are elevating competition to an "AI-native" strategy, focusing on building proprietary, trustworthy AI core technology stacks capable of managing complex systems [3] - JPMorgan's strategy emphasizes proprietary technology layout across three pillars: trustworthy AI and foundational models, simulation and automated decision-making, and alternative data [3] - This approach creates complex barriers that are difficult for competitors to overcome in the short term [3] Group 4 - For domestic asset management institutions, the path to breakthrough lies in strategic restructuring and organizational transformation, focusing on differentiated and targeted technology implementation [4] - Institutions should prioritize the practical and efficient "human-machine collaboration" system, leveraging LLMs to explore unique policy and text Alpha in the A-share market [4] - It is essential to break down departmental barriers and cultivate cross-disciplinary teams that integrate investment and technology, embedding risk management throughout the AI governance lifecycle [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has reached a milestone price of nearly $4400 per ounce, reflecting its challenge to the global reserve currency status of U.S. Treasuries, marking the potential beginning of the end for dollar hegemony [1] Group 1: Understanding U.S. Treasuries - The supply growth rate of substantial assets determines their investment value; lower growth indicates higher scarcity and value [2] - Historically, U.S. Treasuries were considered a value-storing currency, but aggressive debt expansion since 2008 has diluted their status [2] Group 2: Gold as a Value-Storing Currency - Gold's supply growth rate is less than 2%, qualifying it as a value-storing currency; it is now the only remaining global value-storing currency after the dilution of U.S. Treasuries [3] - The total scale of U.S. Treasuries is approximately $32 trillion, while gold's mined amount is projected to reach 220,000 tons by 2025, equating to about 7.1 billion ounces [3] Group 3: Fiscal Discipline and Gold's Future - Restoring fiscal discipline in the U.S. is seen as the only way to disrupt gold's long-term bullish trend [4] - For U.S. Treasuries to regain their status, the supply growth rate must return to below 2%, requiring significant reductions in the federal deficit, which is currently projected to be $2.1 trillion by 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [1] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin increasing by 1 percentage point to 22% [1] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [1] - Deferred revenue at the end of the period was $1.907 billion, reflecting a 10% increase [1] Group 2: Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-academic training participants at 530,000, up 10%, and paid active users for learning machines at 452,000, up 40% [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts, with expectations for improved K12 business revenue in FY26Q2 [2] - Study abroad training and consulting revenue grew by 1% and 2%, respectively, benefiting from a favorable external environment and the company's focus on non-U.S. countries and younger demographics [2] - University student business revenue increased by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Shareholder Returns - For FY2026Q2, the company expects net revenue growth of 9%-12%, maintaining a full-year guidance of 5%-10% growth [3] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [3] - The board has approved a total cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the FY2025 net profit [3] - The current shareholder return plan corresponds to an estimated return rate of about 5.1% based on the latest market capitalization [3]

Core Viewpoint - Guosen Securities maintains an "outperform" rating for New Oriental-S (09901) due to its clear quality enhancement strategy, positive performance outlook, and attractive shareholder returns [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 FY2026, the company achieved revenue of $1.523 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, exceeding the previous forecast of 5% [2] - Non-GAAP operating profit reached $336 million, up 11.3%, with a Non-GAAP operating margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 22% [2] - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was $258 million, down 1.6%, primarily due to the impact of dividend withholding tax [2] Business Segment Performance - K9 education new business revenue grew by 15%, with non-subject training participants reaching 530,000, an increase of 10% [2] - The number of active paid users for learning machines increased by 40% to 452,000, indicating strong brand appeal [2] - High school training revenue increased by 7%, affected by scheduling and regional discounts [3] - Study abroad and consultation revenue grew by 1% and 2% respectively, benefiting from improved external conditions [3] - University business revenue rose by 14%, outperforming the previous expectation of 10% growth [3] Future Outlook - For Q2 FY2026, the company expects revenue growth of 9%-12% and maintains a full-year revenue growth guidance of 5%-10% [4] - A three-year shareholder return plan has been announced, with plans to distribute at least 50% of the previous fiscal year's net profit to shareholders [4] - The board has approved a cash dividend of approximately $190 million and a share buyback plan of up to $300 million within the next 12 months, totaling 132% of the previous fiscal year's net profit [4]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis by Xun Yugen, Chief Economist at Guosen Securities, highlights that China's economy is showing steady progress and high-quality development, with a GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating resilience amid various challenges [1] Economic Performance - In Q3 2025, China's GDP reached 35.45 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%, surpassing the global third-largest economy's total for the entire year of 2024 [1] - The GDP growth rate for the first three quarters of 2025 was 5.2%, exceeding the government's target of around 5% [1] New Productive Forces - The formation of new productive forces is accelerating, with high-quality development becoming more pronounced. The industrial capacity utilization rate rose to 74.6%, and the value added of high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.6% year-on-year [2] - Key industries such as integrated circuits, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles are experiencing rapid growth, contributing significantly to the economy [2] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic consumption is increasingly becoming the main engine of economic growth, with retail sales of consumer goods growing by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, and final consumption expenditure contributing 53.5% to economic growth [3] - The trend towards green, intelligent, and health-oriented consumption is evident, with significant growth in sectors like home appliances and furniture [3] Trade and Exports - China's imports and exports have shown stable growth, with high-tech product exports increasing by 11.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [4] - The resilience of China's trade is supported by a diversified foreign trade market and the emergence of new business models such as cross-border e-commerce [4] Future Outlook - The fourth quarter is crucial for completing the annual economic goals and setting the stage for the next five-year plan. Continued recovery in the real economy is expected to support high-quality development [5] - With ongoing macroeconomic policies and reforms, China's economy is poised to maintain its momentum and contribute significantly to global economic recovery [5]