毛利率有所提升，25Q1 盈利能力进一步增强。毛利率方面，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司毛利率分别为 28.36%/25.99%/29.50%，25Q1 同比+0.12pcts，环比+3.51pcts。主要系原奶价格下滑叠加产品结构优 化，公司毛利率进一步提升。 费用端，2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 销售费用率分别为15.56%/14.68%/ 17.01%，25Q1 同比-0.07pcts，环比 +2.33pcts。2024 全年/24Q4/25Q1 管理费用率分别为3.57%/1.22%/3.54%，25Q1 同比-1.57pcts，环比 +2.31pcts。综合来看，2024全年/24Q4/25Q1 公司归母净利率分别为5.04%/2.54%/5.08%，25Q1 同比 +1.64pcts，环比+2.53pcts，盈利能力有所增强。子公司中，四川乳业/昆明雪兰/寰美乳业/青岛琴牌2024 年净利润率分别为7.13%/4.60%/6.37%/6.77%，同比-1.21/-0.23/-2.32/+1.35pcts，主要系部分子公司以常 温业务为主，受终端竞争加剧影响，利润端短期承压。25Q1 ...

2025 年 5 月 6 日 公司研究 低温业务增势良好，盈利能力持续提升 ——新乳业（002946.SZ）2024 年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：新乳业发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报，2024 全年实现营业收入 106.65 亿元，同比-2.93%；归母净利润 5.38 亿元，同比+24.80%；扣非归母净 利润 5.79 亿元，同比+24.47%。其中，24Q4 单季度实现营业收入 25.16 亿元， 同比-9.94%；归母净利润 0.64 亿元，同比+28.08%；扣非归母净利润 0.72 亿元， 同比-2.25%。25Q1 实现营业收入 26.25 亿元，同比+0.42%；归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+48.46%；扣非归母净利润 1.41 亿元，同比+40.35%。 低温品类持续向好，电商渠道增长积极。1）分产品看，2024 年液态奶/奶粉/ 其他产品分别实现营收 98.36/0.71/7.58 亿元，同比+0.83%/-9.63%/ -34.27%。 其中低温鲜奶和低温酸奶收入同比实现中高个位数增长，高端鲜奶及低温调制乳 品类收入同比实现双位数增长。公司持续推进新品 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined. In terms of size style, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter of 2025Q1 turned significantly positive from negative. In terms of major sectors, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led in 2025Q1, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. In terms of industries, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth [3][19][21]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [3][33]. - Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment. In the cyclical sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Guocheng, Huayou, and Guangda. In the consumer sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, as well as Zhongchongzhuan 2, Xinruzhuan, and Baolong. In the growth sector, it is recommended to overweight convertible bonds such as Weice, Haopeng, Guoli, and Weil [3][7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025Q1 Performance Growth Convertible Bond Recommendations - Among the existing 472 convertible bonds, 372 achieved profitability in the single quarter of 2025Q1. After excluding those with a balance of less than 300 million yuan and a remaining term of less than 1 year, 109 convertible bonds remain. Some convertible bonds are recommended for investment based on factors such as the sustainability of the company's high performance growth and the current price and conversion premium rate of the convertible bonds [6]. - **Cyclical Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds with mineral resource advantages such as Guocheng and Huayou, Guangda with a positive business trend, Dongcai, Dinglong, Anji, and Zhengfan that benefit from the domestic substitution of semiconductor materials, Keli and Bo 23 that benefit from the accelerated development of the robot and AI industries, and Polai that benefits from the recovery of consumer demand and domestic substitution [7]. - **Consumer Sector**: It is recommended to overweight convertible bonds in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, including Muyuan, Juxing, Wenshi, Xiwangzhuan 2, and Hefeng. Also recommended are Zhongchongzhuan 2, the leading pet food company, Xinruzhuan, the leading regional dairy company, and Baolong, an automobile parts manufacturer [13]. - **Growth Sector**: It is recommended to overweight Weice, the leading domestic third-party integrated circuit testing service provider, Haopeng, a consumer battery manufacturer, Guoli, an electronic vacuum device manufacturer, and Weil, the global CIS leader [15]. 2. All A: Technology and Domestic Demand Lead, Midstream Cycle Warms Up - **Overall A-share Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A-shares turned positive from negative, and the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly turned negative. After excluding finance and petroleum & petrochemicals, the year-on-year growth rate of single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of all A non-financial and non-petroleum & petrochemicals also turned positive from negative, while the year-on-year revenue growth rate slightly declined [19]. - **Size Style Performance**: In 2025Q1, the year-on-year growth rates of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in the single quarter turned significantly positive from negative, while the year-on-year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent of SSE 50 slightly turned negative from positive [20]. - **Sector Performance**: In 2025Q1, the growth rates of net profit attributable to the parent of the consumer and growth sectors led, those of the cyclical and financial sectors slightly turned positive, and the negative growth rate of the stable sector significantly narrowed. The revenue growth rate of the growth sector led among all sectors [21][23]. - **Industry Performance**: In 2025Q1, the performance growth rates of the midstream cyclical, some consumer, and growth industries generally improved, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, household appliances, automobiles, electronics, and non-banking maintaining high-speed growth. In terms of ROE and other aspects, the ROE levels of most downstream cyclical and consumer sectors declined, the gross profit margins of the optional consumer sector generally declined, and the net profit margins of the midstream cyclical sector generally recovered. The top 30 sub-industries in terms of single-quarter profit growth rate in 2025Q1 were mainly concentrated in the electronics, computer, and media industries [25][28][32]. 3. Convertible Bonds: Narrowing Negative Profit Growth, Declining Revenue Growth Rate - As of May 5, 2025, the existing 472 convertible bonds covered 27 out of 30 CITIC first-level industries, and 92% of the underlying stocks of the convertible bonds had a market value of less than 3 billion yuan. In terms of size style, the issuers of convertible bonds were generally closer to small and medium-cap stocks [33]. - The average negative growth of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed, and the revenue growth rate declined. After excluding some extreme values, the average growth rate of the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent of existing convertible bonds in 2025Q1 significantly narrowed from -42.76% in 2024Q4 to -2.23%, and the average growth rate of single-quarter revenue in 2025Q1 decreased from 8.51% in 2024Q4 to 5.36% [33].

Core Viewpoint - New Dairy Industry is facing challenges with a decline in revenue for the first time in ten years, prompting the need for alternative growth strategies amidst a competitive market environment [1][3][4] Group 1: Revenue and Financial Performance - New Dairy's revenue decreased by 2.93% to 10.665 billion yuan in the last fiscal year, marking the first decline since 2015 [1][3] - The company reported a net increase of 52 distributors in 2024, but revenue from the distribution model fell by 13.29% year-on-year [3] - The Southwest region, which accounts for approximately 36% of New Dairy's revenue, saw a 6.51% decline in income, negatively impacting overall performance [3] Group 2: Product Strategy and Market Positioning - New Dairy launched a new product, "Super Pasteurized Milk," in collaboration with Jingtailan, aiming to capture the low-temperature milk market [1][4] - The company is focusing on high-end products, with low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt achieving mid-single-digit growth, while high-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk saw double-digit growth [3][4] - The "Super Pasteurized Milk" is positioned as a compromise product, offering taste similar to pasteurized milk while retaining better nutritional value than shelf-stable milk [4][5] Group 3: Industry Challenges and Strategic Response - The dairy industry is experiencing a slowdown in revenue growth, particularly in high-end yogurt sales, due to increased competition and market saturation [4][6] - New Dairy's strategy includes maintaining focus on core product categories, innovating to meet new consumer trends, and enhancing regional market penetration [4][6] - The company is also addressing internal management efficiencies to reduce costs and improve profitability amidst a challenging external environment [6]

Core Insights - The conference "Fresh Ten Years, Quality Leads Future" highlighted the need for the dairy industry to focus on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement amidst stagnant or declining market growth [1][3] Group 1: Industry Challenges and Developments - The "Quality Milk Project" was initiated to counter the pressures from imported milk and the aftermath of the melamine scandal, which had caused consumer distrust [3][5] - The project has established 76 standards and achieved 60 patents, connecting quality pastures to quality raw milk and products, significantly improving the quality of domestic milk compared to imports [5][6] Group 2: Industry Growth and Quality Improvement - China's milk production is projected to reach 40.75 million tons in 2024, a significant increase from 2014, with dairy product output also rising to 29.618 million tons [6] - The quality assurance system has maintained a compliance rate of over 99.5% for fresh milk and dairy products, aligning with international standards [6] Group 3: Future Directions - The industry aims to reduce costs, expand consumption, and focus on precise nutrition in the next decade, with innovations such as using red clover extract in cattle feed to reduce costs [8] - New Hope Dairy has established a cold chain company to ensure product quality and traceability, emphasizing the importance of cold chain logistics in maintaining product integrity [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next six months [16]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in its low-temperature product category, which has positively impacted profitability. The strategy of focusing on high-quality low-temperature dairy products is yielding results [2][3]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at 99.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%. The low-temperature product segment continues to show robust growth, particularly in high-end fresh milk and specialty yogurt [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 28.4%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by cost advantages and product mix optimization [3]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 10,987 million yuan, with a projected revenue of 10,665 million yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 431 million yuan, with an expected increase to 538 million yuan in 2024, representing a growth rate of 24.8% [1]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 16.6% in 2023 to 17.5% in 2024 [1]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to increase its dividend payout, with a total dividend amount expected to be 215 million yuan for 2024, which represents 45.62% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, up from 30% in 2023 [4]. Strategic Focus - The company will implement the "Fresh Cube Strategy" in 2025, focusing on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, enhancing product innovation and promotion [3]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) business will be a core strategic channel to improve channel capabilities and user experience [3]. Market Position - The company is positioned in the food and beverage industry, with a market capitalization of approximately 14,089.23 million yuan as of April 29, 2025 [4]. - The stock price as of the same date was 16.37 yuan, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 32.7 in 2023 to 26.2 in 2024 [1][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated high-quality growth in the low-temperature product category, with profitability exceeding expectations [2][4] - The company reported a revenue of 10.67 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 537.69 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% [4][5] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.46% [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s main revenue for 2024 is projected at 10,665.42 million yuan, with a forecasted growth of 4.85% in 2025, 6.25% in 2026, and 6.38% in 2027 [3][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 537.69 million yuan in 2024 to 966.23 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 24.80%, 26.17%, 20.71%, and 17.99% [3][5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.62 yuan in 2024 to 1.12 yuan in 2027 [3][5] Product and Market Analysis - The low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt categories achieved mid-to-high single-digit growth in 2024, with high-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk showing double-digit growth [4][5] - The company’s strategy focuses on the "fresh and sour strong" product development, with the high-end "24-hour" series seeing over 15% revenue growth [4][5] - The East China region performed well, benefiting from a higher proportion of low-temperature products and rapid expansion of DTC channels [4][5] Profitability and Cost Management - The company’s net profit margin improved to 5.15% in 2024, with a gross margin of 28.36% [4][5] - The asset-liability ratio decreased from 64.61% in 2024 to 62.24% in Q1 2025, indicating improved financial stability [4][5] - Sales expense ratio was 15.56% in 2024, with a slight increase due to competitive pressures, but was well-controlled in Q1 2025 [4][5] Investment Strategy - The company is committed to its "Fresh Cube Strategy," focusing on low-temperature products and DTC channels, with a clear strategic goal [4][5] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with new estimates of 6.78 billion yuan for 2025, 8.19 billion yuan for 2026, and 9.66 billion yuan for 2027 [4][5] - The corresponding EPS estimates have also been revised to 0.79 yuan for 2025, 0.95 yuan for 2026, and 1.12 yuan for 2027 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 538 million yuan, an increase of 24.8% [6] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 26.25 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of 1.33 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 48.5% [6] - The profit margin is expected to continue improving due to the focus on core low-temperature products and cost reductions, despite the anticipated narrowing of raw milk benefits [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to grow from 10.665 billion yuan in 2024 to 11.073 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 538 million yuan in 2024 to 673 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 25.2% [10] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 28.4% in 2024 to 28.8% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 5.0% to 6.1% during the same period [10] Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is focusing on the "fresh strategy," emphasizing core low-temperature milk and yogurt products, while also enhancing direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels and exploring emerging markets [9] - The low-temperature product category has shown strong growth, with liquid milk revenue reaching 49.92 billion yuan in H2 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [7] - The company aims to optimize its product structure, which has positively impacted profitability, with net profit margins increasing by 1.7 percentage points in Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2024 but achieved significant growth in net profit, indicating strong operational performance despite challenging market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 10.665 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.93%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 538 million, an increase of 24.80% [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw operating revenue of 2.516 billion, down 9.94%, but net profit rose by 28.08% to 64 million [1]. - For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 2.625 billion, a slight increase of 0.42%, and net profit of 133 million, up 48.46% [1]. Product Strategy - The company focuses on its "Fresh and Sour Dual Strong" development strategy, achieving mid to high single-digit growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt in 2024, with double-digit growth in high-end fresh milk and low-temperature modified milk [2]. - The "24-hour" fresh milk high-end series saw over 15% growth, and the "Active Moist" brand grew over 20%, with new product revenue maintaining a double-digit proportion [2]. Profitability Improvement - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 28.36% and 5.04%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.49 and 1.12 percentage points [3]. - Key factors for the gross margin improvement included enhanced product mix, strong performance in direct-to-consumer (DTC) channels, and cost advantages in raw milk [3]. - In Q1 2025, the gross margin was 29.50%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.12 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company is expected to continue its "Fresh Cube Strategy," solidifying its advantages in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, and is on track to meet its five-year net profit doubling target [4]. - Forecasts for net profit from 2025 to 2027 are 676 million, 816 million, and 938 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26%, 21%, and 15%, respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the company's continuous improvement in core business advantages and profit margin enhancement, with a focus on the "Fresh Cube Strategy" to strengthen core business and expand market share [6][9]. - The company reported a revenue of 10.665 billion yuan for 2024, a slight decrease of 2.93% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 24.8% to 538 million yuan [5][9]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42%, and a net profit of 133 million yuan, up 48.46% year-on-year [5][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the past year shows a 65.2% increase compared to the CSI 300 index, which only increased by 5.5% [4]. - The current stock price is 15.99 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 7.88 to 18.26 yuan [4]. Financial Highlights - The company’s gross profit margin improved by 1.5 percentage points in 2024, attributed to structural improvements and cost benefits, with the average price of fresh milk decreasing by 13.5% year-on-year [6]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 5.04%, an increase of 112 basis points year-on-year [6]. Growth Drivers - Low-temperature products performed exceptionally well, with significant growth in low-temperature fresh milk and yogurt, while the contribution from room-temperature products was under pressure [6]. - The East China region became a key growth driver, with revenue growth supported by a higher proportion of low-temperature products and strong product innovation [6][9]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 11.178 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 5%, and net profits of 684 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27% [8][9]. - The report anticipates continued profit margin improvements, with a diluted earnings per share (EPS) forecast of 0.79 yuan for 2025 [8][9].