1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon market is facing challenges with supply - side cost pressure and weak demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry. In the short - term, the polysilicon futures are rising due to yesterday's positive news, but the probability of a pull - back on Friday is increasing. It is recommended to lay out short positions on dips [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 54,195 yuan/ton, up 735 yuan; the main position volume is 144,026 lots, up 3,409 lots. The basis between December and January for polysilicon is 100 yuan, up 80 yuan, and the spread between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,050 yuan/ton, up 785 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the basis of polysilicon is - 1,310 yuan/ton, down 1,580 yuan. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.29 yuan/piece, up 0.01 yuan, and the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 9,145 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 0 tons, and the monthly import volume is 1939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly export volume decreased by 6,409.29 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.91 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/watt, unchanged; the comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 32.82, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [2] 3.6 Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the work is progressing steadily, and rumors are false information. From the supply side, the dry season in Southwest China has increased power costs, squeezing polysilicon production profit margins, and some bases in Sichuan and Yunnan have cut production. From the demand side, the downstream photovoltaic industry demand is weak, component bidding prices are falling, and many projects are postponed or shelved [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today. N - type silicon materials and ordinary materials are differentiated. N - type silicon materials maintain a premium due to the increasing penetration of TOPCon battery technology, while ordinary materials are close to the cost line [2]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 尿素产业日报 2025-11-13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1658 | 3 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -73 | 0 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 250538 | -5582 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -39203 | -600 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 6958 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1630 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1610 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1600 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1590 | -20 郑 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View - The central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with limited room for further monetary easing this year. The market is in a policy vacuum, and interest rates are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for now. Also, be vigilant about the potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.1%, 0.08%, 0.01%, and 0.26% respectively. T and TF main contract volumes increased by 15,298 and 18,123 respectively, while TS and TL main contract volumes decreased by 969 and 6,059 respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed a downward trend, but some spreads such as T12 - TL12, TF12 - T12, TS12 - T12, and TS12 - TF12 increased [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also decreased to varying degrees [2]. 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 220017.IB, 220019.IB, etc. [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year active treasury bonds increased by 0.50bp, while the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active treasury bonds decreased by 0.05bp, 0.70bp, 0.75bp, and 0.30bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates, while Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day rates remained unchanged [2]. - **LPR Rates**: Both 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase was 190 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 92.8 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days. The net investment was 97.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and continue to improve the monetary policy framework [2]. - Chinese and US officials expressed the need to promote the stable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [2]. - The US federal government's shutdown ended after 43 days, but there may be a lack of employment and inflation data in October [2]. 3.6 Market Situation - On Thursday, most yields of treasury bonds increased, and treasury bond futures weakened. Domestically, economic data in October was mixed, with inflation improving but export and PMI indicators declining. Overseas, the US government shutdown ended, but there are concerns about employment and inflation, and the prospect of a Fed rate cut in December is unclear [2].

证券之星消息，11月13日多元金融板块较上一交易日上涨0.92%，瑞达期货领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4029.5，上涨0.73%。深证成指报收于13476.52，上涨1.78%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002961 | 瑞达期货 | 26.50 | 8.08% | 34.20万 | 8.83亿 | | 603093 | 南大朗器 | 19.83 | 2.48% | 6.98万 | · 1.38亿 | | 002647 | *ST仁东 | 7.40 | 1.93% | 27.74万 | 2.06亿 | | 600927 | 永安期货 | 15.61 | 1.89% | 9.74万 | 1.51亿 | | 600053 | 九鼎投资 | 20.40 | 1.75% | 6.88万 | 1.40亿 | | 600816 | 建元信托 | 3.04 | 1.67% | 62.61万 | 1.89亿 | | 300773 | 拉卡拉 | 23.42 | ...

格隆汇11月13日｜A股多元金融板块拉升，瑞达期货涨近9%，南华期货、永安期货、九鼎投资跟涨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply - side pressure is small due to restricted imports and widespread oil - mill shutdowns, but the demand is weak because of the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. The price of rapeseed meal has slightly declined recently, and future attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade policies [2]. - The rapeseed oil market will continue the de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at the rigid level. The rapeseed oil futures price has rebounded from a low level recently, with increased short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and ICE rapeseed futures are 9840 yuan/ton, 2494 yuan/ton, and 642.5 Canadian dollars/ton respectively, with changes of 65 yuan/ton, - 6 yuan/ton, and 3.8 Canadian dollars/ton compared to the previous period [2]. - The month - to - month spreads of rapeseed oil (1 - 5) and rapeseed meal (1 - 5) are 450 yuan/ton and 62 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 24 yuan/ton and - 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The positions of the main contracts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 221,984 lots and 468,864 lots respectively, with increases of 4090 lots and 3026 lots [2]. - The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 2456 lots and 35,853 lots respectively, with changes of - 268 lots and an increase of 3275 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 5373 lots and 2745 lots respectively, with changes of - 325 lots and 0 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu and rapeseed meal in Nantong are 10,030 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 200 yuan/ton and - 30 yuan/ton [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil is 10,147.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The import cost of rapeseed is 7956.03 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.05 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The oil - meal ratio is 3.88, with an increase of 0.08 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract and rapeseed meal contract are 255 yuan/ton and 6 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 12 yuan/ton and - 24 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot prices of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing, 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong, and soybean meal in Zhangjiagang are 8550 yuan/ton, 8620 yuan/ton, and 3050 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and - 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal are 1490 yuan/ton, 1420 yuan/ton, and 550 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 100 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 90.96 million tons, with an increase of 1.38 million tons. The annual predicted production of rapeseed in a certain area is 13,446 thousand tons, with an increase of 1068 thousand tons [2]. - The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 11.53 million tons, with a decrease of 13.13 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 734 yuan/ton, with an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.5 million tons, with a decrease of 0.5 million tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, with a decrease of 1.6% [2]. - The monthly import volumes of rapeseed oil and mustard oil, and rapeseed meal are 16 million tons and 15.77 million tons respectively, with changes of 2 million tons and - 5.57 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The coastal area inventories of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 2.6 million tons and 0.5 million tons respectively, with changes of - 1.2 million tons and - 0.21 million tons [2]. - The inventories of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region and rapeseed meal in the East China and South China regions have different changes. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal are 1.31 million tons and 0.2 million tons respectively, with decreases of 0.53 million tons and 0.19 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly production values of feed and edible vegetable oil are 3128.7 million tons and 495 million tons respectively, with increases of 201.5 million tons and 44.4 million tons [2]. - The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail is 4508.6 billion yuan [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal are 20.94%, with changes of - 0.28% and - 0.29% respectively. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 24.18% and 24.97% respectively, with changes of 0.08% and - 1.51% [2]. - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil are 13.96% and 13.97% respectively, with increases of 0.91% and 0.92%. The 20 - day and 60 - day historical volatilities are 14.38% and 15.25% respectively, with changes of 0.23% and - 0.62% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - The ICE rapeseed futures were closed on Tuesday. The optimistic sentiment in Sino - US trade boosted the US soybean futures price, but the recent rise has slowed down [2]. - The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough on the rapeseed tariff issue. The export volume of Canadian rapeseed from August 1 to November 2, 2025, decreased by 54.1% compared to the same period last year, but Canada and Pakistan reached an agreement to promote rapeseed exports [2]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first ten days of November is still poor, but the market's pessimistic sentiment has eased slightly due to the significantly higher - than - expected exports in October [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is mediocre, the real estate sector is a drag, and policy support in the automotive and home appliance sectors brings some highlights. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, the market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices, domestic inventory increases, and LME zinc destocking slows down. Technically, the long - position atmosphere slightly weakens, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,680 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quote is 3,069 US dollars/ton, down 16.5 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 227,385 lots, up 489 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 15,184 lots, down 222 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 70,890 tons, up 372 tons; the SHFE inventory is 100,208 tons, down 3,208 tons; the LME inventory is 35,300 tons, up 400 tons [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,610 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,490 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the basis of the ZN main contract is - 70 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 117.04 US dollars/ton, down 59.51 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons; the global zinc mine production by ILZSG is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons; zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [2] Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons; the social zinc inventory is 161,700 tons, down 100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 12.2%, down 0.03%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 12.2%, down 0.03%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.63%, up 0.12%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.93%, down 0.05% [2] Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship should be maintained. ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private - sector payroll positions in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The US small - business confidence index dropped to a six - month low in October due to deteriorating profitability and reduced economic optimism [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the US corn harvest is nearly finished with high supply pressure, but the upcoming USDA report may show a lower yield estimate and the rise of soybeans and wheat provides support. In the domestic market, there is still selling pressure, but the slowdown of grain circulation and increased purchases by multiple entities may support prices. The corn market has shown a slightly stronger trend recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2][3] - For starch, the supply pressure increases with more new - season corn and rising industry operating rates. However, the current supply - demand structure is good, downstream demand is acceptable, and enterprise sales are smooth. The starch market has been oscillating and rising in tandem with the corn market recently, and short - term observation is recommended [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2177 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 monthly spread is - 74 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 963208 lots, the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 127577 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts are 66338 lots [2] - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2490 yuan/ton, the 1 - 3 monthly spread is - 3 yuan/ton, the trading volume of the active contract is 235124 lots, the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 56909 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts are 12453 lots [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 432 cents/bushel, the total position is 1543065 lots, and the non - commercial net long position is - 51186 lots [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2255.1 yuan/ton, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2190 yuan/ton, the CIF price of imported corn is 2035.94 yuan/ton, and the international freight is 42 US dollars/ton [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory prices in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2510 yuan/ton, 2750 yuan/ton, and 2680 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Corn production: The predicted annual production in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine is 427.11 million tons, 131 million tons, 53 million tons, 295 million tons, and 32 million tons respectively [2] - Corn planting area: The predicted annual planting area in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China is 36.44 million hectares, 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 74.2 tons, at northern ports is 122 tons, and the deep - processing inventory is 279.5 tons [2] - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 6 tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 12.78 tons [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed is 3128.7 tons [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The monthly production is 3128.7 tons, and the sample feed corn inventory days are 24.88 days [2] - Deep - processing: The weekly consumption of corn is 138.18 tons, the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 66.79%, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 63.48% [2] - Processing profit: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 36 yuan/ton, 104 yuan/ton, and 58 yuan/ton respectively [2] 3.7 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 9.59%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.83%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 6.56% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of November 9, the US corn harvest was 92% complete, up from 83% a week ago [2] - As of November 8, the planting of Brazil's 2025/26 first - season corn was 47.7% complete, compared with 42.8% last week, 48.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 45.5% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The SH2601 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term, with the range estimated to be around 2300 - 2410. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to rise quarter - on - quarter. Although the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories has decreased significantly, the pressure is still relatively high. The cost has increased due to the strong thermal coal price, and the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed. The decline in the alumina plant's operating load is not significant, and the supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is relatively loose with a stable market price. The current high basis of the main contract reflects the market's expectation of weak future supply and demand, which awaits verification [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan. The position of the main contract of caustic soda is 136,689 hands, an increase of 742 hands. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 18,733 hands, a decrease of 8,515 hands. The trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 363,722 hands, an increase of 5,442 hands. The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan, and the closing price of the May contract is 2505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 930 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2468.75 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda is 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal is 656 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan, and the spot price of alumina is 2795 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 31 to November 6, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.5% quarter - on - quarter to 84.8%. From November 1 to 7, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.61% quarter - on - quarter to 85.25%. From October 31 to November 6, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 0.04% quarter - on - quarter to 89.60%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.26% quarter - on - quarter to 68.06%. As of November 6, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 6.29% compared with last week to 414,800 tons. From October 31 to November 6, the weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali decreased to 464 yuan/ton [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the nickel price will fluctuate weakly. Technically, the increase in positions and the decline in price have led to a rise in the short - selling atmosphere, testing the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term and light - position short - selling, and pay attention to the MA5 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 118,710 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai Nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,025 dollars/ton, down 75 dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai Nickel is 116,829 lots, an increase of 1,929 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 34,023 lots, an increase of 1,175 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,308 tons, down 96 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 37,187 tons, an increase of 436 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 14,970 tons, an increase of 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 31,824 tons, down 468 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 120,350 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,740 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.63 dollars/ton, down 4.13 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,481.66 million tons, an increase of 2.56 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 217,000 metal tons, down 3,000 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 billion tons, an increase of 0.2112 billion tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 billion tons, an increase of 0.0248 billion tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,800 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest - rate ratio relationship should be maintained. ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private - sector compensation jobs in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in that month (excluding government employees), the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The macro - level shows that the number of private - sector jobs in the US ADP in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic - trade nickel ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [2] 3.7 View Summary - Newly - invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressure, some smelters are making losses and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills show the characteristic of a weak peak season, but the decline in the cost of nickel - iron has improved the profit of steel mills, and the planned output is expected to increase. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium rises; the overseas LME inventory also shows an increase [2]