Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Technically, the decline in positions and price corrections indicate a decrease in the bullish sentiment. It is recommended that previous long positions be held with caution, and attention should be paid to the support levels at 280,000 and 282,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 283,730 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan; the 12 - 1 - month contract closing price is -330 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,915 US dollars/ton, down 265 US dollars. - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 34,378 lots, down 2,184 lots; the net holding of the top 20 futures is -1,790 lots, down 118 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 2,850 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,919 tons, up 153 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,976 tons, up 246 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 285,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is -360 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 74 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 273,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Blue Fuan stated that the government will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. - Fed Governor Milan believes that Fed policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11685 | -50 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 146297 | 1618 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 185 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -33782 | -3579 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12000 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12100 | -200 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 12700 | -300 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 315 | -250 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 43680 | 1233 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4035 | -3 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.3 | 0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3050 | 10 | | 玉米现货价 | | 22 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In early October, the progress of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil slowed down significantly, indicating a weakening production rhythm in the later stage of crushing [2]. - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is 174,500 tons, and the import volume is expected to decrease month - on - month. Affected by news such as syrup and premixed powder, there is support at the lower level. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position is 368,822 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,432, a decrease of 30; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,848 lots, an increase of 2,894 lots [2]. - The total forecast of valid warehouse receipts for sugar is 1,586, an increase of 1,000 [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,057 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,139 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.52%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.32%, an increase of 0.08% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.46%, an increase of 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, a decrease of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a total of 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.22 cents, or 1.50%, to settle at 14.65 cents per pound. The sugarcane harvest in northern Brazil is progressing slowly, while sugar mills in the central - southern region are still gradually shutting down [2]. - In the first half of October 2025, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year [2]. - As of October 16 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 524.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a long - position strategy. The zinc ore import volume has increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have been lowered, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits and restricted growth in refined zinc output. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, and there are some bright spots in the automotive and home appliance sectors due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, domestic inventory accumulation has slowed, LME inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise signals a strong long - position sentiment, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract price spread of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,108 dollars/ton, up 58 dollars. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 225,814 lots, up 4,126 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 12,756 lots, up 1,900 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 68,197 tons, up 548 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 33,825 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,580 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,720 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 130.71 dollars/ton, up 45.14 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,080 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social zinc inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The newly started housing area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the completed housing area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.49%, up 0.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.42%, up 0.19% [3] 3.7 Industry News - China will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. A Fed governor believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3]

不锈钢产业日报 2025-11-04 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 仓减量价格下跌，多空交投分歧，下行通道趋势，下方关注12400位置支撑。操作上，建议暂时观望，或逢 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 高轻仓做空。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12545 | -85 12-01月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -65 | -10 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -58 ...

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 升。MA2601合约短线预计在2080-2180区间波动。 免责声明 甲醇产业日报 2025-11-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价甲醇(日,元/吨) | 2115 | -28 甲醇1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -110 | -14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:甲醇(日,手) | 1410422 | 9856 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:甲醇(日,手) | -232474 | 20185 | | | 仓单数量:甲醇(日,张) | 11447 | -160 | | | | 现货市场 | 江苏太仓(日,元/吨) | 2075 | -15 内蒙古(日,元/吨) | 1980 | -25 | | | 华东-西北价差(日,元/吨) | 110 | -40 郑醇主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -40 | 13 | | | 甲醇:CFR中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 244 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply pressure of pure benzene is at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance capacity of petroleum benzene and hydrogenated benzene in November and continuous inflow of low - priced overseas sources. The domestic pure benzene production is expected to increase month - on - month as the load of East China petroleum benzene devices rises and some shutdown hydrogenated benzene devices restart. However, the terminal demand is weak, and downstream consumption is difficult to grow, with downstream devices expected to maintain low - level operation. The short - term BZ2603 is expected to show a volatile trend, with technical attention on the previous low support around 5430 and the previous high pressure around 5640 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The main closing price of pure benzene is 5438 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; the main settlement price is 5466 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main trading volume is 9882 lots, an increase of 1859 lots; the main open interest is 16566 lots, an increase of 37 lots [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic market, the mainstream price of pure benzene in the East China market is 5438 yuan/ton, in the South China market is 5420 - 5450 yuan/ton (up 70 yuan), in the North China market is 5230 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan), and in the Northeast region is 5215 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan). The mainstream price of hydrogenated benzene in Jiangsu is 5425 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), and in Shanxi is 4900 yuan/ton. The offshore intermediate price of pure benzene in South Korea is 663 US dollars/ton (up 3 US dollars), and the CFR intermediate price of pure benzene in China is 681.23 US dollars/ton (up 3.94 US dollars) [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil is 66.13 US dollars/barrel, up 0.4 US dollars; the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan is 582.38 US dollars/ton, up 1.88 US dollars [2]. Industry Situation - The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene is 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output is 42.89 million tons, up 0.28 million tons. The port inventory of pure benzene is 8.5 million tons, down 1.4 million tons. The production cost is 5327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit is 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The total开工率 of styrene is 66.72%, down 2.53 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam is 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol is 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline is 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid is 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 25th to 31st, the operating rate of petroleum benzene increased by 1.37% to 74.10%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene decreased by 7.79% to 55.67%. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream decreased by 1.22% to 72.18%. As of November 3rd, the pure benzene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 42.35% to 12.1 million tons. From October 25th to 31st, the profit of petroleum benzene decreased by 217 yuan/ton to 168 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the Henan peanut - producing area, after the weather improved, due to the busy farming season at the grass - roots level, the supply of wheat - stubble peanuts last week was still limited, and the progress of new peanut harvesting and drying was slow. Farmers were reluctant to sell dry and high - quality peanuts at low prices. On the demand side, the operating rate of oil mills across the country was low, some large oil mills had not started operation, the demand from downstream food enterprises was flat, and traders mostly purchased according to their own will, with no obvious market demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price: 7,812 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] - Peanut main contract trading volume: 44,455 lots, down 24,730 lots [2] - Peanut main contract open interest: 165,434 lots, down 3,033 lots [2] - Peanut exchange warehouse receipts: 0 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in peanut futures: - 19,225 lots, up 4,446 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Main circulation price of oil - used peanuts: 7,565.6 yuan/ton, up 15.6 yuan [2] - National average price of peanuts: 7,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] - Imported Sudan refined peanut price: 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Henan common peanuts price: 7,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - Shandong common peanuts price: 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Estimated peanut production in China: 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons [2] - Global peanut production forecast: 51.74 million tons, up 70,000 tons [2] - Estimated peanut harvest area in China: 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate of sample oil mills: 10.28%, up 2.42 percentage points [2] - Monthly import volume of peanut kernels: 34,590 tons, up 8,130 tons [2] - Peanut inventory of sample oil mills: 41,865 tons, up 6,710 tons [2] - Monthly export volume of peanut kernels: 10,390 tons, up 400 tons [2] - Peanut oil processing profit in Henan: 74.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Global peanut ending inventory forecast: 4.21 million tons, down 30,000 tons [2] - Peanut oil processing profit in Shandong: 124.75 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan [2] - Global peanut crushing volume forecast: 19.37 million tons, up 100,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Factory price of first - grade peanut oil: 14,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Monthly import volume of peanut oil: 36,409.04 tons, up 5,236.53 tons [2] - Price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil: 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Monthly export volume of peanut oil: 826.94 tons, down 470.98 tons [2] - Price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong: 5,880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong: 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Peanut oil - meal ratio: 4.24, unchanged [2] - Annual forecast of peanut oil production: 3,491,600 tons, unchanged [2] - Global peanut oil production forecast: 6.32 million tons, up 40,000 tons [2] - Global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil: 6.24 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying: 11.35%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying: 8.63%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: 11.54%, unchanged [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 12.23%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 30, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 41,865 tons, an increase of 6,710 tons or 19.09% from the previous week [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Oscillating bearish, pay attention to risk control" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract increased positions and declined. Tariff disturbances affected market sentiment, cost - side support weakened, mainstream positions continued to increase short positions, and futures prices were under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA broke below the 0 - axis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,044.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the position volume was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 113,052 lots, a decrease of 19,611 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt report of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 142,842 tons, a decrease of 1,798 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 206.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, an increase of 1.1859 million tons. The inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.00%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.59%, a decrease of 1.33% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 46.60%, an increase of 1.21%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, a decrease of 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, a decrease of 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 15.41 million tons, an increase of 660,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, an increase of 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.50%, a decrease of 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 13.90%, a decrease of 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, a decrease of 0.90%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, a decrease of 54.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of newly - started housing area was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 55.98 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 399.37 million square meters, an increase of 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 4th, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, some areas in Henan may face moderate to severe pollution risks. Luoyang, Jiaozuo, Jiyuan and other places in Henan launched a heavy - pollution weather orange (Level Ⅱ) early - warning response at 0:00 on November 4th, with the lifting time to be notified later. The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continued to block rare - earth exports, the US might impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that the results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur fully demonstrated that dialogue and cooperation were the correct approaches, and threats and pressure were not helpful in solving problems. The China - EU export - control dialogue and consultation was held in Brussels, and both sides had in - depth and constructive communication on issues of mutual concern in the field of export control. They agreed to continue communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial and supply chains [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have helped increase new orders and shipments of urea factories. Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. With appropriate follow - up from downstream reserves, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1640 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 272,271 lots, up 2,518 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 27,015, up 2,461; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,900, up 2,445 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 60 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 377.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. Enterprise inventory decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. The urea enterprise operating rate increased by 2.29% to 80.32%, and the daily output increased by 5,300 tons to 187,900 tons. Urea exports increased by 570,000 tons to 1,370,000 tons, while the monthly output decreased by 190,010 tons to 5,738,670 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased by 3.33% to 31.04%, and the melamine operating rate increased by 1.68% to 49.98%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer decreased by 651,500 tons to 4,661,800 tons, and the weekly output of melamine increased by 1,300 tons to 25,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. As of October 30, the port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased by 2.29% to 80.32% [2] Viewpoint Summary - Some previously suppressed demand has been released, and some reserve demand has followed up, increasing new orders and shipments of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased last week, and it is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly and stably this week [2][3] Tips for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]