Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - A - share third - quarter reports showed good overall performance, providing bottom support for the market. However, the decline in domestic manufacturing prosperity in October may suppress the subsequent market trend. There is a situation of "good news exhausted" after the Sino - US summit, and the RMB exchange - rate pressure restricts the loose monetary policy. It is recommended to wait and see for the moment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - All major and secondary contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed a downward trend. For example, the latest price of the IF main contract (2512) was 4589.0, down 41.2 from the previous period. The spreads between different varieties and different quarters also changed, with some widening and some narrowing. For instance, the IF - IH current - month contract spread was 1594.8, down 33.8 [2]. 3.2 Futures Position - The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased. The net position of the top 20 in IF was - 25,348.00, down 1949.0 [2]. 3.3 Spot Price - The spot prices of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 4618.70, down 34.7. The basis of the main contracts also changed, mostly showing a downward trend [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume decreased to 19,383.95 billion yuan, a decrease of 1945.09 billion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 83.61 billion yuan to 24,947.63 billion yuan. The north - bound trading volume decreased, and the reverse repurchase operation volume increased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased to 29.92%, down 35.03 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - The overall A - share market, technical, and capital - related indicators all showed a downward trend. The overall A - share market was at 3.50, down 3.00 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points. As of October 31, the total revenue of A - share listed companies in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The profit growth rate in the third quarter reached 11.30%, up 10.19 percentage points from the second quarter [2]. 3.7 Key Events to Focus On - Upcoming events include the Australian central bank's interest - rate decision on November 4 at 11:30, the US ADP employment data for October on November 5 at 21:15, China's trade data for October on November 7 at 9:30, and China's CPI and PPI for October on November 9 at 9:30 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total inventory at Qingdao Port shows a significant accumulation trend, with a slight reduction in bonded warehouses and a large accumulation in general trade warehouses. Overseas arrivals are increasing, but tire factories have sufficient inventory after previous replenishment, so they are more cautious about high - priced raw materials, resulting in a weak purchasing sentiment. The general trade warehouse's出库 is less than expected, leading to an inflection point in the total inventory accumulation in Qingdao. In terms of demand, the domestic tire enterprise capacity utilization rate decreased slightly last week, and most enterprises will maintain the current production schedule in the short term. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,700 - 15,200 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,800 - 12,250 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,875 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - rubber contract is 11,960 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the 12 - 1 spread of 20 - rubber is - 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract are 140,178 lots, up 1,385 lots; the positions of the main 20 - rubber contract are 62,961 lots, up 35,217 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber are - 29,182 lots, up 992 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - rubber are - 11,000 lots, down 778 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 120,080 tons, down 550 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - rubber are 46,571 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned full - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 325 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 495 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The price of 20 - rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,004 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - rubber contract is 1,044 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 55.35 Thai baht/kg, down 0.25 Thai baht. The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup - lump of Thai raw rubber is 51.9 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 174.4 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, down 44.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 122,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 317,500 tons, up 49,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly opening rate of all - steel tires is 65.34%, down 0.24 percentage points; the weekly opening rate of semi - steel tires is 73.41%, down 0.26 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 39.01 days, down 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 44.82 days, down 0.44 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.14 million pieces, up 110,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 60.25 million pieces, up 2.19 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.01%, down 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 18.68%, down 0.02 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 21.32%, up 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.32%, up 0.24 percentage points [2] Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons, an increase of 3.57%. The bonded area inventory is 68,300 tons, a decrease of 0.58%; the general trade inventory is 379,400 tons, an increase of 4.36%. As of October 30, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.61 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises is 65.34%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.15 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Tuesday saw short - term weakness and long - term strength in the Treasury bond market. The central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading is expected to inject stable liquidity, boosting bond market sentiment. The positive progress in Sino - US trade talks has reduced market disturbances. The market anticipates that the central bank will mainly purchase medium - and short - term bonds, which may lead to a decline in short - term interest rates and potentially long - term rates as well. However, the potential suppression of long - term rates due to the recovery of risk appetite should be watched out for. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价108.660，环比0%；成交量66835，环比增加933。TF主力收盘价106.030，环比 - 0.01%；成交量50509，环比减少2173。TS主力收盘价102.498，环比 - 0.01%；成交量19329，环比减少5311。TL主力收盘价116.520，环比0.03%；成交量86971，环比减少11856 [2]. 3.2 Futures Spread - TL2512 - 2603价差0.25，环比增加0.01；T12 - TL12价差 - 7.86，环比减少0.03。T2512 - 2603价差0.26，环比减少0.01；TF12 - T12价差 - 2.63，环比不变。TF2512 - 2603价差0.05，环比减少0.01；TS12 - T12价差 - 6.16，环比不变。TS2512 - 2603价差0.04，环比增加0.00；TS12 - TF12价差 - 3.53，环比不变 [2]. 3.3 Futures Position - T主力持仓量240832，环比减少3036；T前20名多头234667，环比增加2353；T前20名空头253814，环比增加2422；T前20名净空仓19147，环比减少1488。TF主力持仓量149798；TF前20名多头139385，环比减少45；TF前20名空头160251，环比增加10；TF前20名净空仓20866，环比增加55。TS主力持仓量70457，环比减少709；TS前20名多头64962，环比减少540；TS前20名空头74541，环比减少8；TS前20名净空仓9579，环比增加532。TL主力持仓量134287，环比减少3487；TL前20名多头133484，环比减少884；TL前20名空头151049，环比减少1420；TL前20名净空仓17565，环比减少536 [2]. 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 220017.IB(4y）净价106.7266，环比减少0.0192；220019.IB(4y）净价99.0955，环比减少0.0190。250003.IB(4y）净价99.6713，环比减少0.0117；240020.IB(4y)净价100.8844，环比减少0.0202。250017.IB(1.7y)净价100.0353，环比减少0.0110；250012.IB(2y)净价100.0453，环比减少0.0160。210005.IB(17y)净价131.5531，环比增加0.0439；210014.IB(18y)净价127.8009，环比减少0.0022 [2]. 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.3850%，环比增加0.50bp；3y收益率1.4175%，环比增加0.75bp；5y收益率1.5350%，环比增加0.50bp；7y收益率1.6395%，环比增加0.95bp；10y收益率1.7900%，环比减少0.25bp [2]. 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3066%，环比增加0.66bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3150%，环比减少0.10bp。银质押7天利率1.4058%，环比减少2.42bp；Shibor7天利率1.4150%，环比增加0.30bp。银质押14天利率1.4400%，环比减少1.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.4780%，环比增加0.90bp [2]. 3.7 LPR Rates - 1y LPR为3.00%，环比不变；5y LPR为3.5%，环比不变 [2]. 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模1175亿，环比减少3578亿；到期规模4753亿；利率1.4%，期限7天 [2]. 3.9 Industry News - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The composite PMI output index was 50%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways, while threats and pressure do not help solve problems. - The Ministry of Finance updated its official website, listing the Debt Management Department under the "Ministry Agencies". The department is responsible for formulating and implementing government domestic debt management systems and policies, etc. [2]. 3.10 Key Points to Watch - On November 5th at 21:15, the US ADP employment figures for October will be released. - On November 6th at 22:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest - rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply increase is obvious and the downstream demand is average, leading to a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventory and high pressure last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart devices in North and Central China, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The alumina downstream has a loose supply and low - profit situation, which may continue to suppress the industry's stocking demand; non - aluminum downstream has rigid procurement with little change. The liquid caustic soda inventory in factories is at a high level, increasing the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. Recently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has turned negative, the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed, some enterprises have reduced production, and the market expectation has improved. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2400 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract of caustic soda is 128064 hands (a decrease of 7183 hands), the net position of the top 20 futures is - 9167 hands, the trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 254103 hands (a decrease of 218494 hands). The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2503 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal is 649 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 375 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 75.5 yuan/ton (a decrease of 124.5 yuan/ton) [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2790 yuan/ton. From October 24th to 30th, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% month - on - month to 84.3%. From October 25th to 31st, the national alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.41% month - on - month to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% month - on - month to 44.26 tons. From October 24th to 30th, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [2]

Core Insights - The diversified financial sector experienced a slight increase of 0.39% on November 3, with *ST Xiongmao leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3976.52, up 0.55%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13404.06, up 0.19% [1] Stock Performance Summary - *ST Nengmao saw a closing price of 9.93, with a rise of 4.97% and a trading volume of 64,400 shares, totaling a transaction value of 62.95 million yuan [1] - Haide Co. closed at 7.86, up 4.80%, with a trading volume of 946,100 shares and a transaction value of 730 million yuan [1] - Jiuding Investment closed at 19.64, increasing by 4.36%, with a trading volume of 182,400 shares and a transaction value of 356 million yuan [1] - Sichuan Shuangma closed at 21.18, up 4.13%, with a trading volume of 167,000 shares and a transaction value of 350 million yuan [1] - Zhejiang Dongfang closed at 7.36, increasing by 2.79%, with a trading volume of 3,129,800 shares and a transaction value of 2.277 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The diversified financial sector saw a net outflow of 13.69 million yuan from institutional investors and 17.34 million yuan from retail investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 31.03 million yuan [2] - Haide Co. had a net inflow of 81.16 million yuan from institutional investors, while experiencing a net outflow of 82.36 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Sichuan Shuangma recorded a net inflow of 44.44 million yuan from institutional investors, with net outflows from both retail and speculative investors [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share Q3 reports showed good overall performance, providing bottom support for the market, but the decline in domestic manufacturing prosperity in October may suppress subsequent market trends [2]. - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, there is no more positive news in the short term, showing a situation of "good news exhausted". - The pressure on the RMB exchange rate restricts the loose monetary policy. It is recommended to wait and see for now. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Prices**: IF (2512) latest price is 4634.8, down 1.8; IH (2512) is 3016.6, unchanged; IC (2512) is 7239.6, down 24.8; IM (2512) is 7398.0, up 0.8 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: IF - IH spread is 1628.6, up 4.4; IC - IF spread is 2646.6, down 3.6; etc. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: IF basis is -18.6, down 9.3; IH basis is 0.3, down 3.4; IC basis is -94.0, down 5.4; IM basis is -140.1, down 1.6. 3.2 Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume is 21,329.04 billion yuan, down 2169.10 billion yuan; margin trading balance is 24,864.02 billion yuan, down 126.85 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: North - bound trading volume is 2842.58 billion yuan, down 78.16 billion yuan; reverse repurchase operation volume is +783.0 billion yuan, etc. 3.3 Industry News - **PMI Data**: In October, manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 ppts from last month; non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, up 0.1 ppts; composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 ppts [2]. - **Corporate Earnings**: As of October 31, the total revenue of A - share listed companies in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, up 1.20% year - on - year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.70 trillion yuan, up 5.34% year - on - year. - **Stock Market Performance**: A - share main indices generally rose. Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55%, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, and ChiNext Index rose 0.29%. 3.4 Key Data to Watch - November 3, 23:00: US October ISM manufacturing PMI - November 4, 11:30: Australian central bank interest rate decision - November 5, 21:15: US October ADP employment data - November 7, 9:30: China October trade data - November 9, 9:30: China October CPI and PPI [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina's fundamentals may enter a stage of slightly reduced supply and relatively stable demand, with a suggestion of light - position short - long trading at low prices [2] - The fundamentals of Shanghai Aluminum might be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand, and it's recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [2] - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy could be in a situation of slowed supply and increasing demand, and light - position oscillating trading is advised [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai Aluminum contract is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,789 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,888 dollars/ton, up 18 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 558,050 tons, up 98,525 tons [2] - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 21,065 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the SHFE are 51,117 tons, up 273 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 21,440 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina output in October is 799.90 million tons, up 7.42%; the national alumina start - up rate is 85.98%, up 3.05% [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in October is 704.31 million tons, down 21.49%; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 46.85 million tons, up 18.12% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum in October is 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons [2] - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity in October is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate is 98.27%, up 0.16% [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of aluminum products in October is 590 million tons, up 35.18 tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 52 million tons, down 1 million tons [2] - The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in October is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 tons [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.65%, up 0.95%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 8.84%, up 0.65% [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 12.75%, up 0.0049; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.42, up 0.1219 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, aims to guide financial institutions to improve the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, especially interest rate policy, and study and reserve policy tools [2] - In October, China's manufacturing PMI is 49%, down 0.8 percentage points; the non - manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage point; the composite PMI output index is 50%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest rate cuts, expressing concerns about economic growth, inflation, and policy restrictions [2] - The CPC Central Committee proposes to expand two - way investment cooperation space, and the Ministry of Commerce will introduce more detailed measures [2]

| | | 贵金属产业日报 2025-11-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价(日,元/克) | 922.58 | 0.66 沪银主力合约收盘价(日,元/千克) | 11455 | 14 | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151373 | -5518 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 261467 | -17774 | | | 沪金主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 104455 | -1274 沪银主力前20名净持仓(日,手) | 93562 | 2032 | | | 仓单数量:黄金(日,千克) | 87816 | 0 仓单数量:白银(日,千克) | 658851 | -6693 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网黄金现货价(日,元/克) | 917.5 | 0.9 上海有色网白银现货价(日,元/千克) | 11350 | -120 | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -5.08 | 0.24 沪银主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The terminal demand for hot-rolled coils has strong resilience, apparent demand has increased and is higher than the same period last year. However, the support from macro positives has weakened, and at the same time, furnace materials have weakened, causing hot-rolled coils to operate weakly. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. Operationally, it's recommended to be bearish with oscillations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,295 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the position volume is 1,422,835 lots, down 47,384 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is -78,193 lots, down 10,918 lots. The HC1 - 5 contract spread is -9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 128,537 tons, unchanged. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 216 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot-rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin is 3,240 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 75 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 800 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei quasi-primary metallurgical coke is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet is 2,960 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil output of sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The hot-rolled coil inventory at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot-rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly production of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly production of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly production of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] Industry News - Fed Governor Waller said that despite the risk of a government shutdown, the Fed will still obtain a large amount of data and should advance monetary policy based on data guidance. He further pointed out that all data indicate that the correct policy path currently is to continue to advance interest rate cuts. The Passenger Car Association disclosed that the preliminary estimate of new energy vehicle retail sales in October is about 1.32 million vehicles, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 60%, possibly setting a new historical high [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that Shanghai lead will experience oscillations, but the upward potential is limited. It is recommended to adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quotation is 2,025 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars [3]. - The price difference between the 12 - 01 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,718 lots, up 663 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 85 lots, down 581 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 21,645 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 35,999 tons, down 334 tons; the LME lead inventory is 220,300 tons, down 3,875 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 17,225 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 17,440 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [3]. - The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 26.48 dollars/ton, up 7.51 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,796 yuan, up 125 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the average operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points [3]. - The production of recycled lead in the current month is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the production of primary lead in the current week is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons [3]. - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is - 2.5 kilotons, up 3.1 kilotons [3]. - The global lead ore production of ILZSG is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 340 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [3]. - The refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons; the average price of the waste battery market is 9,969.64 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,124.23 points, up 26.19 points; the automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles [3]. - The new - energy vehicle production is 1.58 million vehicles, up 247,000 vehicles [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There were reports about a possible US military attack on Venezuela, which was later denied by Trump [3]. - Multiple Fed officials oppose interest - rate cuts, while Fed理事米兰 predicts a December rate cut [3]. - The US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and relevant Chinese counter - measures will be adjusted [3]. - The US Department of Defense approves the provision of long - range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, with the final decision to be made by Trump [3]. 3.7 View Summary - Supply side: Primary lead production is expected to rise slightly due to smelter overhauls. Recycled lead supply may increase but is restricted by factors such as environmental protection transportation controls and scarce waste battery sources [3]. - Demand side: After the holiday impact, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded. The traditional consumption season and the expansion of some battery enterprises' businesses support lead demand, but the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure [3]. - Inventory: Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and potential growth in recycled lead production, inventory may change this week, and a slowdown in inventory depletion may hinder price increases [3].