免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2026/1/6 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC主力收盘价 | 13.3↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1872.700 | 1223.8 | +34.20↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 -8.60↓ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 648.90 | 455.70 | -10.80↓ | | EC合约基差 | -17.20↓ | -76.87 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1050↓ | 24996 | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 53.19↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） SCFI（综合指数）（周） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The overall index is mainly dragged down by the accelerating decline of inventory. Zinc prices have corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off-season, with the real estate sector being a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors also weakening. However, there are some bright spots in areas such as the automotive sector supported by policies. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have been fluctuating and adjusting, with dull trading and on-demand purchases. The spot premium is relatively high and stable, and domestic inventory continues to decline. The accumulation of LME zinc inventory has slowed down, and the spot premium remains at a low level. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has strengthened, but there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will adjust strongly, and attention should be paid to the range of 24,100-24,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,295 yuan/ton, up 475 yuan; the 02-03 month contract spread is -50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The LME three-month zinc quotation is 3,195 US dollars/ton, up 68 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 230,243 lots, up 22,571 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 3,432 lots, up 3,069 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 69,793 tons, down 3,170 tons; the LME inventory is 105,850 tons, down 475 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 24,340 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 24,630 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 45 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan; the LME zinc cash-to-three-month spread is -36.3 US dollars/ton, down 0.05 US dollars. The ex-factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,850 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan; the price of 85%-86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 16,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply-demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply-demand balance is 20,300 tons, down 27,600 tons. The global zinc mine production is 1.0666 million tons, down 31,000 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 665,000 tons, up 40,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, down 164,500 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, down 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, up 6,040.84 tons. The social inventory of zinc is 113,900 tons, up 5,000 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, up 140,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the housing completion area is 348.61 million square meters, up 37.3212 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, up 240,000 vehicles; the air conditioner production is 14.204 million units, down 3.8908 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at-the-money call options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at-the-money put options on zinc is 19.72%, down 0.36 percentage points. The 20-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 17.29%, up 3.34 percentage points; the 60-day historical volatility of at-the-money options on zinc is 11.81%, up 0.13 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's RatingDog Services PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprises in innovation and promoting the accelerated iteration and upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones in expanded applications. Trump warned Venezuela's "interim president" and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in December unexpectedly contracted the most since 2024, dragged down by inventory [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 139800 | 5700 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -220 | 110 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17290 | 530 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 131481 | -3248 | | 期货市场 | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -49943 | -4234 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 255354 | 72 | | | 上期所 ...

生猪产业日报 2026-01-06 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11810 | 150 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 169630 | -2476 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 918 | 918 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -49421 | 2897 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The current stage of the breeding side is still in a loss state, and the market's enthusiasm for replenishment is still lower than the same period last year, which is beneficial for long - term prices [2] - However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the enthusiasm for culling old hens has slightly slowed down recently. High production capacity still restricts the performance of near - month market prices [2] - Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, near - month contracts may be in a wide - range low - level oscillation state. In the long term, with the expectation of declining production capacity, the performance of far - month contracts is expected to be better than that of near - month contracts. One can lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2] Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3000 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 8 [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 32401 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 12996 hands [2] - The monthly spread (May - September) of egg futures is - 425 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 34 [2] - The trading volume of the active egg futures contract is 231586 hands, with a week - on - week increase of 12061 hands [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 23 hands, with no week - on - week change [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.18 yuan per catty, with a week - on - week increase of 0.07 yuan [2] - The basis (spot - futures) is 179 yuan per 500 kilograms, with a week - on - week increase of 66 [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The national laying hen inventory index is 112.03 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 2.21 [2] - The national culling laying hen index is 101.18 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month decrease of 13.26 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, with no weekly change [2] - The national new - born chick index is 93.62 (with 2015 = 100), with a month - on - month increase of 26.53 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan per kilogram, with no weekly change [2] - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.39 yuan per hen, with a weekly increase of 0.08 [2] - The average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan per kilogram, with a weekly increase of 0.16 [2] - The national average age of culled hens is 500 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 days [2] 4. Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.99 yuan per kilogram, with a daily increase of 0.03 [2] - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.61 yuan per kilogram, with a daily decrease of 0.04 [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.72 yuan per kilogram, with a daily decrease of 0.08 [2] - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, with a weekly increase of 0.09 [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, with a weekly increase of 0.09 [2] - The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, with an increase of 178.74 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons, with an increase of 124 tons [2] 6. Industry News - Today, the average price of eggs in Shandong, the main production area, is 6.30 yuan per kilogram, up 0.18 from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.88 yuan per kilogram, up 0.22 from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.87 yuan per kilogram, up 0.14 from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.30 yuan per kilogram, up 0.14 from yesterday [2] - The continuous losses of the breeding side have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old hens culled. The inventory of laying hens has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2]

研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 难以形成需求支撑。成本方面，市场认为委内瑞拉原油产量恢复需要时间，昨日国际油价震荡上涨。短期L 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 塑料产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6329 | 89 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6579 | 130 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6618 | 122 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 457863 | 60422 持仓量(日,手) | 507885 | -1038 | | | 1-5价差 | -250 | -41 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | 432078 | 8010 | | | 期货前20名持仓:卖单量:聚乙烯(日,手) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, most yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and treasury bond futures declined across the board. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.43%. In December, the central bank's net investment through treasury bond trading was 500 million yuan, lower than market expectations. Domestically, the official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December both rebounded and returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the US raid on Venezuela and the arrest of Maduro caused geopolitical shocks. The Fed's December meeting minutes indicated a divergence among officials, with most expecting looser monetary policy in the future if inflation declines as expected. Overall, the rebound in December's manufacturing PMI suggests a possible marginal improvement in economic indicators. The new regulations on fund redemptions have relaxed requirements for bond funds, alleviating market concerns and reducing redemption pressure. Interest rates may enter a phased repair window but are still subject to the suppression of a strong equity market and the supply pressure of government bonds in the first quarter. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: On January 6, 2026, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main - contracts decreased by 0.13%, 0.11%, 0.05%, and 0.31% respectively [2]. - **Futures Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of T, TS, and TL main - contracts increased by 1165, 4332, and 14958 respectively, while the trading volume of TF main - contract decreased by 327 [2]. - **Futures Price Spreads**: Most price spreads showed an upward trend [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL main - contracts increased by 3499, 3110, and 3705 respectively, while the position of TS main - contract decreased by 1428. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS decreased by 3807, 701, and 2250 respectively, while the net short position of TL increased by 639 [2]. 3.2 Cash Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of most CTD bonds declined [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 10 - year active treasury bonds all increased, with increases ranging from 0.25bp to 1.38bp [2]. 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2435%, 1.4057%, and 1.4300% respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates were 1.2630%, 1.4220%, and 1.4650% respectively. The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates decreased by 0.65bp, 3.43bp, and 1.00bp respectively, Shibor overnight and 7 - day interest rates decreased by 0.10bp, and Shibor 14 - day interest rate increased by 0.80bp [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 6, 2026, the issuance scale of open - market operations was 16.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 312.5 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 296.3 billion yuan. The interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day operations [2]. 3.5 Industry News - In December 2025, the central bank had a net investment of 500 million yuan through open - market treasury bond trading, 1000 million yuan through MLF, and a net investment of 71 million yuan through SLF [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to allocate over 100 billion yuan in funds to support Yangtze River protection projects and will establish a unified cross - regional ecological compensation mechanism in the Yangtze River mainstream [2]. - On January 5, local time, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US and pleaded "not guilty" in court. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting, and China called on the US to ensure Maduro's safety and resolve the issue through dialogue [3]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - January 7, 18:00, Eurozone CPI preliminary value for December 2025 - January 9, 21:30, US seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for December 2025 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of nickel iron is expected to shrink. Nickel mines in the Philippines face seasonal challenges, and Indonesia plans to cut RKAB quotas, leading to potential production cuts in nickel - iron. Although the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, the supply pressure remains due to limited actual production decline. The downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the export volume of stainless steel is decreasing, resulting in low market purchasing willingness. However, the social inventory of stainless steel in the country is seasonally decreasing slightly. Technically, the stainless - steel futures price is expected to adjust strongly, with attention on the upper resistance level at 13,600 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 13,395 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan/ton. The 02 - 03 contract spread is - 110 yuan/ton, with a change from - 8983 yuan/ton. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 13,457 lots, an increase of 2,821 lots. The main contract position is 63,161 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 47,387 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,800 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan/ton. The market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of stainless steel is 345 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 225 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production is 22,100 metal tons, a decrease of 800 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 895,400 tons, a decrease of 97,000 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 143,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 5,300 yuan/ton. The average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) in the country is 930 yuan/nickel point, a daily increase of 10 yuan/nickel point. The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7617 million tons, a decrease of 38,300 tons. The weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 553,800 tons, a decrease of 8,700 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 534.567 million square meters, an increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 33,600 units, an increase of 2,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 22,600 units, an increase of 700 units. The monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, unchanged [2] Industry News - China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The current expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang emphasized strengthening the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promoting the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump issued a warning to Venezuela's "interim president". The US December ISM manufacturing index slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall production of methanol has increased due to the fact that the production capacity loss from recent domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts is less than the production capacity output from recovery. With an increase in market supply, downstream raw material inventories are at a high level, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm. Inland projects continue to operate stably, and last week, inland enterprises' inventories increased, with short - term supply being relatively abundant. Against this backdrop, the weakening demand expectations in winter are not conducive to the upstream production end's shipping rhythm, and inventory is expected to maintain an overall increasing trend. [2] - Last week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained good, inventories increased due to more unloading. In Zhejiang, demand was stable, and inventories also increased. There is an expected decrease in imports in January, and port methanol inventories may decline from their high levels. [2] - Last week, most enterprises' devices were operating stably. Due to some devices in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased slightly. In the short term, the load of MTO enterprises in East China may still decrease, but the MTO device of Qinghai Salt Lake is planned to restart, so there is an expectation of an increase in the industry's operating rate. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2293 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 78; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 53 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. [2] - The trading volume of the main methanol contract is 824,536 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 50,952; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for methanol is - 128,251 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 21,279. [2] - The number of methanol warehouse receipts is 8,205, with a week - on - week increase of 1,557. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1847.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10. [2] - The price difference between East China and Northwest China is 362.5 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 43 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 38. [2] - The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 262 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, with no change. [2] - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 255 euros/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 58 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 5. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.49 US dollars/million British thermal units, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.15. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 1.0471 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 39,800 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 430,300 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 25,100 tons. [2] - The import profit of methanol is - 10.15 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 1.4176 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 195,000 tons. [2] - The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.19; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.49. [2] - The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 2.71; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, with no change. [2] - The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.8; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins is - 1256 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 141. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 15.44%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.04. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol is 19.47%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.38. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31st, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 4.61%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 183,000 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons from the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.48%. [2] - As of December 31st, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4774 million tons, an increase of 6,490 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 39,800 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 25,100 tons. Methanol port inventories continued to accumulate this week. [2] - As of December 31st, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 88.66%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02%. Most enterprises' plants were operating stably, but due to some plants in the northwest still being in a load - reducing state, the weekly average industry operating rate decreased slightly. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and off - season demand. The aluminum price remains high - oscillating due to positive macro expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - long trading on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24,335.00 yuan/ton, up 690.00 yuan; the main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum was 253,076.00 hands, down 8056.00 hands. The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,818.00 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan; the main contract position of alumina was 429,905.00 hands, up 19,914.00 hands. The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 22,995.00 yuan/ton, up 475.00 yuan; the main contract position of cast aluminum alloy was 20,162.00 hands, up 1,863.00 hands [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai Aluminum was - 110.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina was - 130.00 yuan/ton, down 15.00 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of cast aluminum alloy was - 250.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 3,085.50 US dollars/ton, up 64.50 US dollars; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.89, up 0.06 [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum cancelled warrants were 59,275.00 tons, unchanged; LME aluminum inventories were 506,750.00 tons, down 2,500.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventories were 129,818.00 tons, up 1,310.00 tons; cast aluminum alloy SHFE inventories were 73,793.00 tons, up 553.00 tons; Shanghai Aluminum SHFE warrants were 84,204.00 tons, up 1,408.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 23,910.00 yuan/ton, up 600.00 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 23,100.00 yuan/ton, up 650.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 23,340.00 yuan/ton, up 610.00 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 505.00 yuan/ton, down 205.00 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 425.00 yuan/ton, down 90.00 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 208.00 yuan/ton, down 48.00 yuan [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wuma Aluminum premium/discount was - 220.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 27.69 US dollars/ton, down 2.75 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Prices and Quantities**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 18,200.00 yuan/ton, up 700.00 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap was 17,450.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. China's import quantity of aluminum scrap and fragments was 162,756.17 tons, up 4,396.16 tons; the export quantity was 71.53 tons, up 39.07 tons [2]. - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 813.80 million tons, up 27.30 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate was 83.32%, down 1.05%; the alumina capacity utilization rate was 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.87 million tons, up 8.34 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 66.20 million tons, up 7.30 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The production of aluminum products was 593.10 million tons, up 23.70 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 70.00 million tons, up 9.17 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,524.20 million tons, up 1.00 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate was 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - **Import and Export**: The import quantity of primary aluminum was 146,109.72 tons, down 101,652.54 tons; the export quantity of primary aluminum was 53,047.69 tons, up 28,474.13 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy was 173.90 million tons, unchanged; the production of automobiles was 351.90 million vehicles, up 24.00 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 91.90, down 0.52 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 19.03%, up 1.98%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 15.44%, up 1.49% [2]. - **Implied Volatility and Ratio**: The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25.26%, up 0.0366; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.64, down 0.0467 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024 [2]. - Premier Li Qiang conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem, cultivation of application scenarios, and exploration of business models for new technologies and products such as robots and drones [2]. - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to implement the green consumption promotion action, with 20 specific measures in 7 aspects [2]. - The preliminary estimate of the new - energy vehicle wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers in December 2025 was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase [2]. - Gree Electric Appliance promised not to raise the price of household air - conditioners and had no plan for "aluminum instead of copper" [2].