Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors support the upward movement of A - shares. The collective rebound of the three official PMI indices in December implies economic repair signs. The positive tone for 2026 economic work set by a series of important meetings at the end of 2025 creates a warm macro - environment, providing strong bottom support for A - shares [2]. - Weak U.S. economic data negatively impacts the U.S. dollar value. The offshore RMB remains strong after the holiday, and the strengthening exchange rate supports the expectation of loose monetary policy in January [2]. - Due to the relatively late timing of the Spring Festival this year, the market may pre - trade the policy expectations of the Two Sessions to be held in early March before the Spring Festival, suggesting the possibility of an early A - share spring market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: IF, IH, IC, and IM main and sub - main contracts all showed increases. For example, the IF main contract (2603) rose to 4778.0, up 80.2; the IC main contract (2603) reached 7786.4, up 203.8 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most spreads showed changes. The IF - IH current - month contract spread increased by 20.0 to 1636.6, and the IC - IF current - month contract spread rose by 89.8 to 3040.6 [2]. - **Futures Maturity Spreads**: Some maturity spreads changed. The IF current - quarter to current - month spread decreased by 0.4 to - 17.4, while the IF next - quarter to current - month spread increased by 2.8 to - 61.4 [2]. - **Futures Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC increased, while that of IM decreased. The IF top 20 net position increased by 583.0 to - 32,818.00, and the IM top 20 net position decreased by 1781.0 to - 47,935.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 reached 4790.69, up 73.0 [2]. - **Futures Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts all increased. The IF main contract basis increased by 8.1 to - 12.7 [2]. 3.3 Market Sentiment - **Transaction Volume and Balance**: A - share trading volume and margin trading balance increased. The A - share daily trading volume reached 28,322.78 billion yuan, up 2650.38 billion yuan, and the margin trading balance of the previous trading day was 25,606.48 billion yuan, up 199.66 billion yuan [2]. - **North - bound Trading and Repurchase**: North - bound trading volume increased, and the repurchase operation volume changed. The previous trading day's north - bound trading volume was 2959.05 billion yuan, up 735.90 billion yuan, and the repurchase operation volume increased by 162.0 billion yuan to - 3125.0 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Some indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks decreased, while the closing price of IO at - the - money call options increased. The proportion of rising stocks decreased by 1.45% to 75.12%, and the closing price of IO at - the - money call options (2601) increased by 32.00 to 52.60 [2]. 3.4 Industry News - **Domestic PMI**: In December, China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point [2]. - **U.S. PMI**: The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024 [2]. - **A - share Market Performance**: A - share major indices closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high and reaching a new high in over a decade. The CSI 500 performed the strongest among the four broad - based indices. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.75%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the communication sector falling [2]. 3.5 Key Data to Follow - January 7, 21:15: U.S. December ADP employment figures; 23:00: U.S. November JOLTs job openings [3]. - January 8, 20:30: U.S. December Challenger corporate layoff figures [3]. - January 9, 9:30: China's December CPI and PPI; 21:30: U.S. December non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, and labor participation rate [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term SH2603 is expected to show a fluctuating trend, with attention on the support around 2090 and the resistance around 2260 [3][4] - The spot supply and demand of liquid caustic soda remain generally loose, and the purchase and market prices of the 32% liquid caustic soda main product in Shandong have declined recently [3] - The planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali in January is small, and the previously shut - down devices are restarting one after another. Domestic chlor - alkali devices are expected to maintain a high - operation state [3] - The operating load of alumina enterprises will basically remain stable in the short term, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid procurement with little change [3] - Although the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali has narrowed due to the decline in caustic soda prices, it is still in a theoretical profit state [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract is 2194 yuan/ton, and the position volume of the main caustic soda contract is 159,963 hands, with a decrease of 15,593 hands [3] - The net position of the top 20 in futures is - 14,547 hands, and the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract is 344,227 hands, with an increase of 30,386 hands [3] - The closing price of the January caustic soda contract is 1970 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May caustic soda contract is 2330 yuan/ton, with an increase of 27 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 690 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 780 yuan/ton [3] - The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2156.25 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 38 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton [3] - The price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 225 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 25 [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2600 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, China's caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 86.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4% [3] - From December 27 to January 2, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 84.67%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 1.61% week - on - week to 85.42%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.47% week - on - week to 60.81% [3] - As of January 2, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 9.84% [3] - From December 25 to January 4, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, a decrease compared with the previous period [3]

Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating mentioned in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the corn market, the US corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions support the price. In the domestic market, the acquisition progress in the Northeast has passed half, and after the New Year's Day, the release of reserve corn and the directional release of imported corn continue. The feed enterprise inventory is at a normal level, and the deep - processing enterprise inventory is relatively low year - on - year. In the Huabei and Huanghuai regions, as the Spring Festival approaches, the willingness to sell grain increases, and the market supply is abundant. The corn futures price is relatively volatile recently, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For the corn starch market, with the increase in the supply of new - season corn, the supply pressure remains. The starch inventory has increased week - on - week, month - on - month, and year - on - year. However, after the large increase in the price of tapioca starch, some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch, increasing the demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2222 yuan/ton, the monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 27 yuan/ton, the open interest of the active contract is 994015 lots (down 7328 lots), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 167858 lots (up 1031 lots), the registered warehouse receipts are 31655 lots (down 7740 lots), and the CS - C spread of the main contract is 313 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton) [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2501 yuan/ton (down 8 yuan/ton), the monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 44 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton), the open interest of the active contract is 193513 lots (down 3295 lots), the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 33413 lots (down 1803 lots), and the registered warehouse receipts are 12355 lots (unchanged) [2]. - CBOT corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 444.5 cents/bushel (up 7.5 cents), the total open interest is 1543015 contracts (up 26463 contracts), and the non - commercial net long position is 53192 contracts (down 11680 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2354.51 yuan/ton (down 1.96 yuan/ton), the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2310 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the CIF price of imported corn is 2051.05 yuan/ton (up 3.76 yuan/ton) [2]. - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Weifang is 2800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Shijiazhuang is 2730 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the main corn starch contract is 69 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton), and the basis of the main corn contract is 132.51 yuan/ton (up 0.04 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons (down 1.58 million tons), in Brazil is not mentioned, in Argentina is 53 million tons (unchanged), in China is 295 million tons (unchanged), and in Ukraine is 32 million tons (unchanged) [2]. - Corn planting areas: The predicted planting areas in the US is 36.44 million hectares (up 0.55 million hectares), in Brazil is not mentioned, in Argentina is 7.5 million hectares (unchanged), in China is 44.3 million hectares (unchanged), and in Ukraine is not mentioned [2]. - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons (up 15.6 tons), at northern ports is 157 tons (down 31 tons), and the deep - processing corn inventory is 349.4 tons (up 11.6 tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Corn: The monthly import volume is 36 tons (up 30 tons), the monthly feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9 tons), and the sample feed corn inventory days are 29.92 days (up 0.04 days) [2]. - Corn starch: The monthly export volume is 19.17 tons (up 6.39 tons), the starch enterprise inventory is 112.3 tons (up 2.1 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.09%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.64%) [2][3]. Downstream Situation - Corn: The deep - processing corn consumption is 138.28 tons (down 1.42 tons), and the alcohol enterprise operating rate is 63.5% (down 1.38%) [2]. - Corn starch: The starch enterprise operating rate is 59.86% (down 0.6%), the processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Hebei is 65 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jilin is - 56 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. Option Market - For corn options, the 20 - day historical volatility is 11.08% (down 0.32%), the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.29% (down 0.01%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options is 10.02% (up 0.53%) [2]. Industry News - As of the week ending January 1, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 1,206,913 tons, compared with the revised 1,335,028 tons last week and 877,214 tons in the same period last year [2]. - As of the week ending December 25, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2025/26 season was 756,419 tons, compared with 2,202,287 tons in the previous week [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The China's RatingDog Services PMI in December 2025 was 52, maintaining expansion, but new export orders fell back into contraction. The ISM Manufacturing PMI in the US in December unexpectedly recorded the largest contraction since 2024, dragged down by inventories [3]. - On the supply side, the domestic tin ore import supply remains relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees stay at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, the supply in other regions is still highly unstable. The overall tin ore import volume is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current shortage of tin ore raw materials and low raw material inventories in most enterprises mean that most enterprises are in a loss - making situation. It is expected that refined tin production will continue to be restricted and lack year - on - year growth. In terms of imports, the significant increase in Indonesia's export volume in November alleviated concerns about supply restrictions in Indonesia. The recent repair of import losses means that if the import window opens, the import supply pressure will increase significantly [3]. - On the demand side, the recent high - level correction of tin prices has improved the market's willingness to purchase on opportunity, leading to a slight decline in inventory and a spot premium of 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium is volatile. Technically, with the increase in positions and the rise in prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is expected that Shanghai tin will have a short - term strong adjustment, with attention on the 34 support level and a test of the historical high of 35 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin was 348,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 14,450. The closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin was 2,758 yuan/ton with a change of 70, and the price of LME 3 - month tin was 42,466 US dollars/ton, with a change of 2,216. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin was 41,195 lots, and the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin was - 2,355 lots, with a change of 761 [3]. - LME tin total inventory was 5,415 tons (unchanged), Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin inventory was 7,936 tons (a decrease of 541 tons week - on - week), LME tin cancelled warrants were 160 tons (unchanged), and SHFE tin warehouse receipts were 7,086 tons (a decrease of 259 tons) [3]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 341,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 tin spot price was 342,520 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8,470. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract was - 2,770 yuan/ton, with a change of - 6,300, and the LME tin cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 30.01 US dollars/ton, with a change of - 29.01 [3]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.16 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 329,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton (unchanged). The average price of 60% tin concentrate was 333,050 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9,450, and its processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged) [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons, and the monthly import volume of refined tin was 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 218,310 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5,960. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) was 1.3901 million tons, with an increase of 0.1447 million tons, and the monthly export volume of tinplate was 222,600 tons, with an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's services activities continued to expand, and this expansion period has lasted for three years. Li Qiang proposed to strengthen the dominant position of enterprise innovation and promote the iterative upgrading of new technologies and products such as robots and drones. Trump warned the "interim president" of Venezuela, and also mentioned that Venezuela may not be the last country to be intervened by the US and reiterated the need for Greenland. The US ISM Manufacturing Index in December decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months [3].

| 分瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | PVC产业日报 2026-01-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 4919 | 155 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1740594 | 970429 58848 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 1026198 | 68221 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 985727 | | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 1064508 | 57356 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -78781 | 1492 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4600 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4492.69 | -13.08 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 4700 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法 ...

| 证券代码：002961 | 证券简称：瑞达期货 | 公告编号：2026-003 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：128116 | 债券简称：瑞达转债 | | 证券代码：002961 证券简称：瑞达期货 公告编号：2026-003 瑞达期货股份有限公司 关于提前赎回"瑞达转债"的第七次提示性公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 1、赎回价格：101.118 元/张（含当期应计利息，当期年利率为 2.00%，且 当期利息含税），扣税后的赎回价格以中国证券登记结算有限责任公司深圳分公 司（以下简称"中登公司"）核准的价格为准。 11、根据安排，截至 2026 年 1 月 16 日收市后仍未转股的"瑞达转债"将被 强制赎回，特提醒"瑞达转债"持有人注意在限期内转股。本次赎回完成后，"瑞 达转债"将在深圳证券交易所（以下简称"深交所"）摘牌。"瑞达转债"持有 人持有的"瑞达转债"存在被质押或被冻结的，建议在停止交易日前解除质押或 冻结，以免出现因无法转股而被强制赎回的情形。 12、本次"瑞达转债"赎回价格可能与其 ...

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals, particularly casting aluminum alloy, is experiencing a collective upward trend, with the main contract opening at 22,490.0 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 23,060.0 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.14% [1] - The market for casting aluminum alloy is showing a strong upward trend, supported by high aluminum prices and the implementation of the "Two New" policy in 2026, which has led to a slight increase in scrap aluminum prices, thereby strengthening the cost support for aluminum alloy [2] - Environmental policies and tight raw material supply are putting pressure on production costs, potentially leading to a reduction in output, while demand is weakening due to seasonal factors, resulting in a subdued market for spot transactions [2] Group 2 - The recycled aluminum alloy market is facing weak consumption, with prices rising but downstream die-casting enterprises struggling to accept these increases, leading to a decline in demand [3] - The operating rates of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remain stable, but there is an accumulation of finished product inventory, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [3] - The price of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short term, with a recommendation for cautious trading strategies [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For corn: The U.S. corn is in the export peak season with high short - term supply pressure, but good export conditions and a downward - adjusted 2025/26 carry - over stock forecast support the price. In China, the grain sales progress in the Northeast is fast, with growers reluctant to sell and most grain in the hands of grain depots and traders. Feed enterprises have some inventory, while deep - processing enterprises' inventory is low year - on - year. The supply of raw corn is abundant, and the downstream product prices are weak, so the corn futures price is currently volatile and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For corn starch: With the increase in the new - season corn supply, the industry operation is good but there is still supply - side pressure. As of December 31, the national corn starch enterprise inventory increased. However, due to the large increase in tapioca starch price, some downstream customers repurchase corn starch, increasing its demand. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting is advised [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2224 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2509 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. - Corn futures trading volume (active contract) is 1001343 lots, down 7918 lots; corn starch futures trading volume (active contract) is 196808 lots, up 1319 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price is 437 cents/bushel, down 4 cents; CBOT corn total trading volume (weekly) is 1516552 contracts, down 6106 contracts [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2356.47 yuan/ton, up 0.39 yuan; the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream - The predicted annual corn output in the U.S. is 425.53 million tons, down 1.58 million tons; the predicted sown area is 36.44 million hectares, up 0.55 million hectares [2]. Industry - Corn inventory at southern ports is 65.8 tons, up 15.6 tons; starch enterprise weekly inventory is 112.3 tons, up 2.1 tons [2]. Downstream - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 tons, up 20.9 tons; the corn starch processing profit in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.4%, down 0.15%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.49%, up 0.2% [2]. Industry News - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that as of December 30, 84.2% of the expected 2025/26 corn planting area in Argentina was sown, with 83.1% of the sown corn rated as good or excellent [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The current national cotton inspection volume in the domestic market has exceeded 6 million tons, with relatively sufficient supply. The ginning mills' cotton processing is nearing completion. Downstream textile enterprises have stable orders for medium - and high - count yarns, mostly making just - in - time purchases. Some regional warehouse inventories have slightly decreased, with overall good outbound shipments. It is expected that the national commercial inventory will still increase. However, in 2026, the expectation of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang is rising, and the new cycle expectation of target price subsidies provides a bottom support, so there is a continuous upward driving force for short - term cotton prices [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 14,655, up 70; cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 180,066, down 1,730; main - contract cotton positions (daily, lots): 889,861, up 29,136; cotton warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 6,118, up 406 - Cotton yarn main - contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 20,575, down 10; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 2,248, down 130; main - contract cotton yarn positions (daily, lots): 18,643, down 947; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity (daily, sheets): 19, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B, daily, yuan/ton): 15,615, up 30; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 21,200, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: 1% tariff, daily, yuan/ton): 12,445, down 477; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 20,961, down 12; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding duty, daily, yuan/ton): 13,633, down 297; arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32s, daily, yuan/ton): 22,288, up 70 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2,838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 6.16, up 0.54 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5,585, down 30; industrial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 85, up 6.5 - Cotton import quantity (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 12, up 3; cotton yarn import quantity (monthly value, monthly, tons): 150,000, up 10,000 - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 1,982; commercial inventory of cotton (national, monthly, million tons): 468.36, up 175.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Inventory days of yarn (monthly, days): 26.33, up 0.21; inventory days of grey fabric (monthly, days): 32.34, up 0.37 - Cloth output (monthly value, monthly, billion meters): 28.1, up 1.9; yarn output (monthly value, monthly, million tons): 203.9, up 3.8 - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 11,593,686, up 590,205.57; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products (monthly value, monthly, million US dollars): 12,275,733, up 1,017,314.08 [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton (%): 15.07, up 1.78; implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton (%): 15.04, up 1.78 - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 8.89, down 0.07; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton (%): 6.9, down 0.31 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 23, 2025, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton were 80,440 lots, a decrease of 2,078 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 112,073 lots, a decrease of 9,045 lots from the previous week; the net short positions were 31,633 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots from the previous week, with a slight reduction in net short positions - The sowing progress of Brazilian cotton is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian cotton in the 2025/26 season was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% in the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6% [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on the far - month contracts of eggs [2] 2) Core View - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, near - month contracts may be in a state of wide - range low - level oscillation, while far - month contracts are expected to perform better than near - month ones due to the expected decline in production capacity [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2992 yuan/500 kilograms, with the net long position of the top 20 futures holders decreasing by 7280 hands to - 45397 hands. The egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 459 yuan/500 kilograms, and the futures trading volume (active contract) increases by 113657 hands to 219525 hands. The registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 [2] Spot Market - The egg spot price is 3.1 yuan/jin, and the basis (spot - futures) is 113 yuan/500 kilograms, down 30 yuan/500 kilograms [2] Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 112.03 (2015 = 100), down 2.21; the eliminated laying hen index is 101.18 (2015 = 100), down 13.26. The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan/feather, and the new chick index nationwide is 93.62 (2015 = 100), up 26.53. The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, and the laying hen breeding profit is - 0.39 yuan/hen, up 0.08 yuan/hen. The average price of eliminated chickens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, up 0.16 yuan/kg, and the age of eliminated chickens nationwide is 500 days, down 10 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 17.96 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of pork is 5.65 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan/kg; the average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.8 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg. The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.21 days, up 0.09 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.09 days, up 0.09 days. The monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7147 tons [2] Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 6.12 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.66 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from yesterday; in Guangdong, it is 6.73 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Beijing, it is 6.16 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday. The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the elimination of old chickens. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] Viewpoint Summary - The spot price remains low, and the breeding end is still in a loss state. The market's enthusiasm for replenishment is poor, which is beneficial to the forward price. However, the current inventory of laying hens in production is still at a high level, and the enthusiasm for eliminating old chickens has slightly slowed down recently. High production capacity still restricts the performance of the near - month market price. Overall, the market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [2]