Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is showing a predominantly positive trend, with rapeseed meal futures experiencing a price increase of 1.46% [1][2] - The main rapeseed meal futures contract opened at 2610.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2646.00 CNY and a low of 2610.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor compared to alternatives [2] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with some expecting price pressure due to the influx of Brazilian soybeans and tight supply of old-season rapeseed [2] - The low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal are contributing to short-term price fluctuations [2] - The market is currently observing a wait-and-see approach regarding the outcomes of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [2]

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for coke has seen a continuous increase, with the main contract reaching 1522.0 CNY/ton, marking a rise of 2.98% [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The spot market for coke has also experienced price increases, with the price of premium metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port rising to 1260 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton from the previous period [2] - National statistics from 230 independent coke enterprises indicate a capacity utilization rate of 72.72%, down by 0.48%, and an average daily coke production of 51.29 thousand tons, a decrease of 0.34 thousand tons [2] - Coke inventory stands at 59.58 thousand tons, down by 2.02 thousand tons, while total coking coal inventory has increased to 752.44 thousand tons, up by 36 thousand tons [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Ruida Futures, the fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, with the raw material supply gradually improving and iron output remaining high [3] - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is reported at 63 CNY/ton [3] - Zhongcai Futures notes that despite long-term supply-demand imbalances expected to worsen, the short-term fundamentals for coking coal remain strong, with a weekly decrease in coking coal inventory of 7.22% and a decrease in coke inventory of 9.67% [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for fuel oil is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 2948.00 CNY/ton and a decline of 2.23% observed [1] - South China Futures indicates that June's fuel oil exports remain tight, with increased import demand from China and reduced imports from India and the US, leading to stronger overall demand [1] - The market sentiment for fuel oil is generally bearish, with downstream demand releasing slowly and limited support from cost direction [2] Group 2 - OPEC has lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years in its 2025 outlook report, raising concerns about potential supply surplus [2] - The shipping market is experiencing weak transactions, with just-in-time purchasing and limited support from low prices offered by refineries [2] - Technically, the main contract for fuel oil (FU) is facing resistance around 2980 CNY, while the LU main contract has support near 3600 CNY, indicating a weak oscillation in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The internet finance and large financial sectors continue to strengthen, with Guoyuan Technology rising over 20% to reach a historical high [1] - Several stocks, including Nanhua Futures (603093), Ruida Futures (002961), Bank of China Securities (601696), and Zhongyuan Securities (601375), have hit the daily limit [1] - Dark pool funds are flowing into these stocks, indicating increased investor interest [1]

Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-07-10 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy [2]. - The steel mills are facing increased pressure of cost inversion and are in a state of full - line losses, leading to increased production cuts. With domestic anti - involution measures, the over - supply situation may be alleviated, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional off - season of consumption, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure, the downstream market is cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and the impact of subsequent production cuts on inventory reduction should be monitored [2]. - Technically, the long - position is slightly stronger in terms of positions. Pay attention to the support of MA10, and it is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,647 lots, an increase of 9 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,345 lots, a decrease of 2,421 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. The CPI turned positive after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices, and the PPI's month - on - month decline was the same as last month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization [2]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1st, the US will impose a 20% tariff on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The new tariff on Brazil is much higher than the previous 10% [2]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22120 | 70 08-09月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 75 | -15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2719 | 36 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 250347 | -3271 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 18212 | 8912 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 8950 | 1001 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45364 | 1731 LME库存(日,吨) | 108500 | -2100 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22400 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22250 | 520 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 50 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -9.88 | 12.17 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 168 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost support for spot prices. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market is in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. Option market sentiment is bullish [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and cost support may provide some support for prices. It is also recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,208 yuan/ton, up 78 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quote was 2,602 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum increased by 5,534 hands to 255,633 hands, while those of alumina decreased by 4,110 hands to 244,546 hands. The positions of the cast aluminum alloy main contract increased by 242 hands to 8,813 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum inventory increased by 6,450 tons to 390,800 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous 20 net positions increased by 10,629 hands to 27,332 hands. The Shanghai - London ratio was 7.96, down 0.01 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,820 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 550 yuan to 160 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 25 yuan to 120 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium and discount decreased by 10 yuan to - 60 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum premium and discount increased by 2.77 US dollars to - 0.60 US dollars/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the month was 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) in the month was 720.02 million tons, up 26.32 million tons. The supply - demand balance of alumina was - 25.26 million tons, down 15.33 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 50 yuan to 16,250 yuan/ton, and that in Shandong metal scrap increased by 50 yuan to 15,800 yuan/ton. China's import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons to 159,700.92 tons, and the export volume increased by 35.90 tons to 72.44 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina decreased by 5 million tons to 21 million tons, and the import volume increased by 5.68 million tons to 6.75 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons, and the production capacity utilization rate was 97.68%, up 0.03 percentage points. The production of aluminum products decreased by 0.20 million tons to 576.20 million tons, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 3 million tons to 55 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy increased by 0.76 million tons to 2.42 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.10 million tons to 126 million tons, and the national real estate climate index was 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy increased by 11.70 million tons to 164.50 million tons, and the production of automobiles increased by 3.80 million vehicles to 264.20 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.22 percentage points to 8.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.34 percentage points to 8.76%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money IV increased by 0.0049 percentage points to 8.77%, and the put - call ratio was 1.11, down 0.0425 [2]. Industry News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed differences among officials on interest - rate prospects. Trump said Sino - US relations had improved [2]. - The State Council issued new employment - stabilization support policies. The NDRC said China's economy had an average annual growth rate of 5.5% from 2021 to 2024, with domestic demand contributing 86.4% on average [2]. - In June, the CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year and decreased by 0.1% month - on - month; the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month [2]. - The relationship between multinational enterprises and the Chinese market has shifted to "two - way empowerment", and the globalization of Chinese new - energy vehicles is an opportunity to build global brands [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar supply is expected to be loose due to the good supply prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries during the monsoon season and the increase in Brazilian exports, which suppresses raw sugar prices. However, Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the year - on - year decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of June provide short - term support for raw sugar [2]. - In the domestic market, there is a divergence in price trends between domestic and international markets. The profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, which will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. On the demand side, the peak summer consumption season and the restocking demand in the food and beverage industry, along with the recovery of seasonal consumption such as cold drinks, provide some support for prices. Overall, the domestic sugar price has been fluctuating following raw sugar, but due to the recovery of domestic demand, it has performed stronger than the international market. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to more volatile prices. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,805 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 298,087 lots, an increase of 10,840 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 22,934, a decrease of 53. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 23,947 lots, an increase of 10,763 lots [2]. - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,457 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 4,498 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar is 5,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan/ton [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 470 yuan/ton; in Nanning, it is 6,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in Liuzhou, it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons. The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 8.1138 million tons, an increase of 869,200 tons [2]. - The national industrial sugar inventory is 3.0483 million tons, a decrease of 814,300 tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons. The monthly total sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 million tons, an increase of 1.1024 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.59%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.6%, a decrease of 0.71 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.73%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.55%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to Brazilian shipping agency Williams, as of the week ending July 9, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 90, up from 80 the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 3.6855 million tons, up from 3.2059 million tons the previous week [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 14375 | 110 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 74505 | 2765 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 447 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -16276 | -532 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 15000 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 14600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 16500 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 625 | -110 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 41731 | -1012 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | 4 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.1 | 0 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2800 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2426.86 | -0.59 ...

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