Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Bilibili (9626 HK) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 316.5, corresponding to a 2025E PS of 4.1x [1][7]. Core Insights - Bilibili has evolved from a niche community to a comprehensive video ecosystem, establishing a strong competitive moat through its unique community atmosphere and high user retention [2][18]. - The advertising business has transitioned into a systematic growth phase, with a projected revenue increase of 27.7% year-on-year in 2024, driven by a 40% growth in performance advertising [3][19]. - The gaming segment has shown robust recovery, with revenues reaching RMB 5.6 billion in 2024, a 40% year-on-year increase, supported by the successful launch of new games [4][22]. - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 2.31 billion, RMB 3.18 billion, and RMB 3.99 billion for 2025-2027 [6][20]. Summary by Sections Community Ecosystem - Bilibili's community has a high retention rate, with over 80% for formal members and 84% for users registered for over ten years, indicating a deep user-platform bond [2][21]. - The platform's user base is predominantly young, with over 80% of users under 35 years old, showcasing a strong generational engagement [2][21]. Advertising Business - The advertising infrastructure has been fully established, enabling comprehensive coverage across various platforms, including long and short videos, PC, and search [3][19]. - AI technology integration is enhancing advertising efficiency, with a 10% year-on-year increase in eCPM in the first half of 2025 [3][19]. Gaming Business - The gaming revenue for 2024 is expected to reach RMB 5.6 billion, with a 40% year-on-year growth, driven by the successful launch of new titles [4][22]. - The strategy focuses on long-term operations and the introduction of younger game genres, with the upcoming release of "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" expected to continue this trend [4][22]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are RMB 30.03 billion, RMB 32.72 billion, and RMB 35.09 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits expected to rise significantly [6][20]. - The overall gross margin is anticipated to improve from 17.6% in 2019 to 32.7% in 2024, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin advertising and gaming revenues [20].

Core Insights - The Double 11 shopping festival has officially started, with Bilibili (B站) playing a significant role in driving e-commerce growth through innovative marketing strategies and enhanced product capabilities [1][3] - Bilibili's daily active users have reached 109 million, with an average usage time of 105 minutes, indicating strong engagement, particularly among the younger demographic [1] - The platform has established deeper data integration with Alibaba and JD.com, allowing brands and merchants to optimize their advertising strategies and improve conversion rates [3] Group 1 - Bilibili has introduced a new solution called "Huafei IP" for the Double 11 event, which includes significant resources such as exposure venues and pre-campaign insights [3] - The "Huahuo" platform will enhance the supply of high-value content creators (UP主), providing merchants with more options for collaboration [3] - The focus on categories with longer decision-making cycles, such as 3C digital products and home appliances, will help brands capture consumer interest ahead of the peak sales period [3] Group 2 - The collaboration with Alibaba and JD.com marks a shift towards deeper operational integration, enabling a seamless transition from "grass planting" (种草) to "harvesting" (种收) for merchants on Bilibili [3] - Continuous optimization of advertising strategies will allow for more precise audience targeting and conversion tracking [3] - Bilibili aims to leverage its growing commercial infrastructure and mature community ecosystem to help brands achieve both sales and reputation growth during this Double 11 [3]

Market Overview - After five consecutive declines, the U.S. stock market rebounded strongly, with all three major indices closing higher: the Dow Jones increased by 1.29%, the Nasdaq rose by 2.21%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.56% [1] Banking Sector - The banking sector experienced a collective reversal, with notable gains including Alliance West Bank up by 5.23%, and other major banks such as Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Zions Bank all seeing increases of over 2% [3] Technology Sector - The technology sector saw a robust performance, highlighted by Tesla's increase of 5.42%, Qualcomm up by 5.33%, Google rising by 3.2%, Nvidia gaining 2.82%, Intel up by 2.34%, and Amazon increasing by 1.71%. Other tech giants like Apple and Microsoft also recorded slight gains [3] Chinese Concept Stocks - Chinese concept stocks opened high and maintained strong performance throughout the day, with the China Golden Dragon Index rising by 3.21%. Notable individual performances included NIO up by 7%, Alibaba increasing by 4.91%, JD.com rising by 4.4%, and XPeng Motors up by 3.38% [3] Gold Market - COMEX gold prices opened lower but surged throughout the day, closing up by 2.34% at $4,130 per ounce. The intraday range saw a low of $4,011.3 and a high of $4,137.2. The current sentiment around gold is mixed, balancing fears of high prices against prevailing trends [3]

For my previous thesis on Bilibili (NASDAQ: BILI ) ( OTCPK:BLBLF ) when the stock was at $22.5, I gave it a buy rating for what seemed clearly a bargain and withI'm Michael from Hong Kong. I focus on consumer discretionary and financial services sector in the US and China. My investment time frame is 0.5-2 years. I hold a bachelors in commerce with high distinction from the University of Toronto, specializing in finance and economics. I am passionate about value investing, economics, and public policy. At t ...

Core Insights - The mobile game "Dudu Face Prank," developed by the Korean team Epid GAMES and published by Bilibili outside of Korea, launched internationally on October 9 and has achieved significant early success in various markets [1][2]. Market Overview - As of October 13, "Dudu Face Prank" ranks first on the iOS free charts in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, and second in Japan [3]. - The game accumulated over 320,000 downloads across both platforms within two days of its launch [5]. - Revenue generated in the first two days exceeded 2.16 million, excluding platform fees [6]. Game Features and Design - The game offers a "super-saturated welfare" system, providing players with 130 free draws upon login and a total of 300 draws in the first week, significantly more than typical offerings in the genre [8]. - Unique gameplay features include real-time interactive character customization using Live2D technology, enhancing user engagement through playful interactions [10]. - The game is designed for "casual play," with daily tasks taking only 15-20 minutes to complete, catering to players' fragmented time availability [10]. Marketing Strategy - The marketing campaign began in early September, with increased efforts on the launch day [12]. - Promotional materials focus on the game's core selling points: character interaction, high welfare offerings, and a cute aesthetic [14][20]. - The marketing approach emphasizes low-cost strategies, utilizing smaller influencers and social media platforms to maintain a balanced ROI [26]. Bilibili's Strategic Shift - Bilibili's decision to publish "Dudu Face Prank" reflects a strategic pivot from heavy-duty games to lighter, more casual offerings, addressing the growing demand for low-pressure gaming experiences [28]. - The game fills a gap in Bilibili's portfolio for lightweight games, complementing its existing heavy-duty titles [28]. - The potential for success in the Chinese market is promising, given the game's appeal to Bilibili's large user base and its compatibility with the platform's community-driven content [29].

Core Insights - The rise of video podcasts is becoming a focal point in the content-driven landscape of 2025, with platforms like Bilibili experiencing a surge in user engagement, particularly with 40 million users contributing to increased viewing times [1][3] - Major platforms such as Douyin and Xiaohongshu are also entering the video podcast space, offering incentives and tools to attract creators, while the industry faces challenges regarding profitability and audience retention [3][6] User Engagement - Bilibili's "Video Podcast Out-of-Circle Plan" aims to attract more creators, leveraging the popularity of established figures like Luo Yonghao and Chen Luyou, who have successfully drawn large audiences [1][4] - The audience for video podcasts is projected to exceed 150 million by 2025, with a growth rate of 43.6% in 2024, indicating a significant shift towards this medium [6] Content Creation Challenges - Despite the influx of creators, the majority of top podcasts generate only around 100,000 yuan in annual profit, creating barriers for smaller creators [3][6] - The success of video podcasts heavily relies on the ability of hosts to engage in meaningful, spontaneous conversations, which poses a challenge for less experienced creators [7][13] Audience Behavior - The shift towards short-form content has conditioned audiences to prefer quick, digestible information, making it difficult for them to engage with longer video podcasts [14][15] - Research indicates that most users on short video platforms prefer content that lasts between 1 to 5 minutes, with only 10% willing to engage with content longer than 5 minutes [14] Market Dynamics - Video podcasts are currently defined variably, but they generally aim to provide depth and engagement compared to traditional short videos, which dominate the market [21][23] - The user overlap between short video and podcast audiences is low, as short video consumers often seek entertainment and quick consumption, while podcast listeners prioritize depth and knowledge [25] Future Outlook - The video podcast industry may evolve towards a hybrid model that combines elements of both long and short content, but it faces the challenge of changing audience habits [26][27] - The current landscape suggests that video podcasts are still in a nascent stage, struggling to compete with the efficiency and popularity of short videos, which continue to capture the majority of user attention [20][27]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices continued to rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.07%, Nasdaq up 1.92%, and S&P 500 up 1.37% [1] - Rare earth stocks surged, with USA Rare Earth increasing over 25% and Critical Metals rising over 30% [1] - Gold stocks also saw gains, with Hecla Mining and Harmony Gold both up over 5% [1] Gold Market - Gold prices have reached a historic high, with COMEX gold futures surpassing $4100 per ounce [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened demand from investors amid trade tensions, economic uncertainty, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Company News - OpenAI and Broadcom announced a strategic partnership to deploy a 10GW custom AI accelerator, with OpenAI responsible for the design and Broadcom involved in development and deployment [3] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang has been selling shares, with recent filings showing he sold 225,000 shares at an average price of $190.2, totaling approximately $42.8 million [4] - Apple is shifting its focus from lightweight headsets to smart glasses, which may utilize the Vision Pro operating system, ensuring previous software development efforts are not wasted [5] - Tesla is facing an investigation by the NHTSA regarding 2.88 million vehicles equipped with the Full-Self Driving system due to reports of traffic safety violations and accidents [6]

Core Insights - Bilibili has officially launched its "Double 11" promotional campaign, collaborating with Alibaba and JD.com for deeper data integration to enhance e-commerce performance metrics for brands and merchants [1] Group 1: Promotional Strategy - The new promotional solution "Hua Fei IP" will provide significant resources including a billion-level exposure venue and pre-campaign insights for merchants [1] - The "Hua Huo" platform will focus on increasing the supply of high-commercial-value content creators (UP主), offering merchants more options with commercial potential [1] Group 2: Technology and Efficiency - AI technology will be utilized to enhance the selection capabilities, improving the matching efficiency between merchants and content creators [1] Group 3: User Engagement - Bilibili reports an average daily active user count of 109 million, with an average usage duration of 105 minutes [1] - Nearly 70% of active users are from the post-90s and post-00s generations [1] - During the previous 6.18 campaign, Bilibili achieved an average new customer rate of nearly 60% across the industry [1]

Core Insights - Bilibili (B站) is leveraging the Double 11 shopping festival to enhance its role as a significant source of e-commerce growth through innovative marketing strategies and deeper data integration with e-commerce platforms [1][2] - The platform has achieved an average daily active user count of 109 million, with users spending an average of 105 minutes daily, indicating strong engagement, particularly among the younger demographic [1] - Bilibili's new solution "Huafei IP" aims to provide brands and merchants with extensive resources, including high-exposure venues and pre-campaign insights, to optimize their marketing efforts during the Double 11 event [1] E-commerce Strategy - Bilibili has established deeper data integration with Alibaba and JD.com, allowing brands and merchants to track advertising effectiveness and optimize their marketing strategies for better audience targeting and conversion [2] - The platform's evolution from basic e-commerce collaborations to a more integrated operational model signifies a shift towards comprehensive marketing solutions that encompass both "grass planting" (brand awareness) and "harvesting" (sales conversion) [2] - The ongoing improvements in Bilibili's commercial infrastructure and community ecosystem are expected to provide brands with more opportunities for genuine business growth during the Double 11 festival [2]

Core Viewpoint - US pre-market trading saw a broad increase in popular Chinese concept stocks, indicating positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Kingsoft Cloud experienced a rise of over 6% [1] - Alibaba saw an increase of over 5% [1] - NIO and TSMC both rose nearly 5% [1] - Baidu and Bilibili increased by over 4% [1]