中信证券研究发文表示，随着中国制造业在全球定价权和经济利润份额的不断提升，资产内在价值亦不 断提升，最终会带来持续的人民币升值。中信证券研究部宏观组预测2026年人民币对美元有望升值到 6.8。为了避免人民币过早、过快单边升值对出口导向型制造业的损伤，超预期的货币宽松是必要的。 超预期的货币宽松可能会带动实际利率下行，并在一定程度上撬动内需（当然这需要财政的配合），而 内需的系统性提振是2026年市场整体打破震荡僵局再上一个台阶的必要条件。在此之前，预计震荡和结 构性机会的轮动是A股的常态，我们依然建议在配置上寻找全球有敞口，且利润率有提升逻辑的方向。 1）资源与传统制造业领域，依旧看好中国在全球有份额优势的行业对应的龙头企业，讲出"供应在内反 内卷，需求在外出利润"的故事，不断提升在全球的定价权，重点关注的行业包括有色、化工和新能源 等。2）企业出海依旧是打开利润和市值空间的重要方式，A股从本国敞口的新兴市场定位向全球敞口 的成熟市场定位过渡也依旧是时代特征，过程中不可避免的会出现与海外风险资产和经济环境共振频率 增加的问题，这是必经之路，重点关注的行业包括工程机械、创新药、电力设备、游戏和军工等。3） 站 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that before the emergence of unexpected changes in domestic demand, market fluctuations and structural opportunities are the norm, with a reassessment of global pricing power in resources and traditional manufacturing being an undervalued direction [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Since the "9.24 market" last year, the overall elevation of market levels has been accompanied by a systematic increase in financing scale, totaling a net increase of 1.11 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding the total issuance scale of public and private bullish products since October last year [1] - In the two market rallies, major broad-based and cyclical industries have completed most of their gains, while excluding the significant rise phases of financing, the market has mostly been in a sideways trend [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - During the sideways period, sectors that achieved effective growth include quantitatively driven micro-accounts, bank-driven insurance, price-driven non-ferrous metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals driven by pipeline exports [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The current market fluctuation may be a normal state before the emergence of unexpected changes in fundamentals, with adjustments in the bond market posing challenges to stock-bond balanced strategies, which may require higher control over position volatility and indirectly affect stock allocation strategies [1] - Potential appreciation pressure on the renminbi may lead to unexpected monetary easing, which could be a source of unexpected changes and break the current fluctuation pattern; until then, the focus should remain on the reassessment of pricing power in resources/traditional manufacturing and corporate overseas expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing volatility due to a policy vacuum, with expectations for a positive policy direction emerging from upcoming meetings in December [1][2]. Macro and Policy - Economic fundamentals have shown relative weakness in the second half of the year, yet risk assets have outperformed safe-haven assets, indicating that asset pricing is driven more by long-term expectations than short-term economic performance [2]. - Optimism regarding the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the anticipated policy strength for 2026 is fueling this positive outlook [2]. - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are critical for setting the policy tone for 2026 and could serve as a turning point for major asset classes [2]. Overseas Factors - The U.S. labor market remains under pressure, necessitating potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, although the long-term impact of the labor market on monetary policy is diminishing [3]. - China's international competitiveness in exports has improved, and the country has mitigated some negative impacts from tariffs through re-export trade, suggesting a better-than-expected foreign trade outlook [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - Following the December meetings, major assets are expected to transition from a state of ambiguity to clearer trends, marking a pivotal moment for asset allocation [4]. - Bond yields are reasonable but lack attractiveness, while stock market valuations have slightly declined, maintaining a high-risk appetite in the market [4]. - There is optimism regarding fiscal policy strength, which may enhance the attractiveness of equity assets [4]. - In terms of bond investments, a focus on medium- to short-term bonds is recommended due to a generally accommodative monetary policy, despite market sentiment being fragile [4]. - For commodities, attention should be given to non-ferrous metals, which are expected to show a clear contraction trend in supply [4].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，在流动性改善、地缘扰动、AI泡沫短期无虞三重因素下，亚洲股市更需聚焦基本面线索变化带来的结构性配置 机会。美联储12月降息预期反转缓解亚洲市场宏观压力，而全球GPR指数高位运行下中日对峙、俄乌冲突等构成阶段性扰动，AI领域现金流支撑与供应链 瓶颈使极端泡沫叙事难现。具体市场核心观点如下。1)A股：需基本面超预期突破，配置上建议聚焦资源/传统制造业定价权重估与企业出海主线，关注低 拥挤品种与红利标的。2)港股：受益内外部催化有望实现戴维斯双击，建议侧重科技、医疗、资源品等五大方向。 中信证券主要观点如下： 亚洲流动性风险趋缓，地缘风险高位扰动，AI泡沫短期难破。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的鸽派表态与FOMC鸽派票委占优结构形成关键支撑，截至12月1日CME Fed Watch数据显示12月降息概率升至87%，叠加关键通胀 数据披露推迟与政策门槛不对称的强化作用，预计12月"close call"降息25bps为基准情景，亚洲市场流动性压力实质性消退，资金风险偏好有所回暖;2025 年1-10月全球GPR指数月均值149显著高于往年，中日关系对峙、俄乌冲突、美委局势构成核心风险 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the inventory turning point has emerged since mid-November, combined with rising expectations for interest rate cuts and domestic production reductions, leading to a forecast that LME copper prices may accelerate towards $12,000 per ton by the end of the year [1] Group 1: Inventory and Price Forecast - The inventory turning point will support the acceleration of copper prices towards $12,000 per ton by year-end [1] - Current high inventory levels are primarily influenced by COMEX hoarding, while LME and domestic inventories are not excessively high [1] - The expected decline in domestic inventory consumption days to below the five-year average (<10 days) will further support price increases during the year-end period [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The combination of "U.S. copper hoarding" and "domestic production cuts" is expected to significantly widen the supply gap by 60% to 450,000 tons in 2026 [2] - Uncertainty in tariff policies and the rapid development of AI are driving continued U.S. copper hoarding, with a projected increase in copper demand from infrastructure and energy sectors [2] - Domestic production cuts are anticipated to significantly reduce overall production growth next year, despite an increase in recycled copper supply [3] Group 3: Long-term Price Outlook - The forecasted price of $12,000 per ton is seen as both a safety net for long-term supply and a potential new upward elastic point [4] - The increase in exploration costs and investment intensity for new projects supports the upward price target of $12,000 per ton [4] - Historical trends in global apparent inventory changes suggest a strong potential for price increases in the coming year, similar to past market behaviors [4]

中信证券研报称，11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国 内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有望拉阔60%，预计12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 近期铜价暴涨。伦敦铜期货价格周五（12月5日）再涨2%，报收11665美元/吨。国内沪铜主力合约周五盘中直奔93000元关口。 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：中信证券研究，作者：敖翀、拜俊飞、涂耀廷 11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价有望加速迈向12000美元/ 吨。展望明年，"美铜囤货"与"国内减产"的双重叙事有望加速共振，供给缺口有望拉阔60%，预计 12000美元将成为铜价的崭新起点。全面推荐铜板块配置。 库存拐点将助力年内铜价加速迈向12000美元。 针对近期市场关于"高铜价和高库存"背离的讨论，我们认为目前库存读数偏高更多受COMEX囤货影 响，LME和国内库存难言高企。考虑到持续溢价状态下的COMEX库存回流难度较高、LME库存主要为 中俄货源，当前市场上有限的有效库存愈显脆弱，特别是在全球经济预期向上、经贸风险增加的大环境 下。我们预计Q4国内供需均环比走弱，但供给的下滑幅度更大，并将推动年底国内库存消费天数下滑 至近五年均值以下（<10天）。每年年底去库至来年春节假期后的1-2个月，期间的铜价上涨具备充分的 历史数据验证。随着11月中旬以来库存拐点已现，叠加降息预期升温和国内减产发酵，年内LME铜价 有望加速迈向12000美元/吨。 美铜囤货延续叠加国内减产落地，明年供给缺口料将大幅拉阔。 1 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，12月6日，中信证券研报指出，近期债市窄幅波动，银行二永债舆情事件频发。市场担忧 机构投资者调整流动性管理工具，赎回短债产品，引发债市交易性品种卖盘增加，估值大幅调整。研报 认为不必过度担忧公募基金新规对于二永债的影响：2024年以来理财净值化整改之下，低波动与高收益 存在冲突， 2026年理财机构或增加二永债、证金债等交易性品种的配置需求以增厚收益；另一方面， 银行净息差日益收窄背景下，农商行或增大信用债的配置规模，对于二永债实际配置需求或相应增加。 央行重启买债后，年末抢跑行情有望助推中长久期信用债走牛，3-5Y国股行二永债具备交易性价比， 可双线并行，建议关注银行二永债配置性价比。 ...

Group 1 - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the opportunity for the transformation of drug sales channels in China, shifting from hospital-based to external sales and from offline to online platforms [1] - The online sales rate of healthcare products is expected to significantly increase due to factors such as medical insurance cost control, the migration of original drug channels, and the rise of AI search and recommendation technologies [1] - Leading pharmaceutical e-commerce companies are expected to leverage their main site advantages, including traffic and fulfillment cost benefits, to capitalize on new opportunities in AI research and productization, as well as health management [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the opportunity for the transformation of drug sales channels in China, shifting from hospital-based to external and from offline to online sales, driven by factors such as medical insurance cost control, the migration of original drug channels, and the rise of AI search and recommendation technologies [1] Group 1 - The online sales rate of healthcare products is expected to see significant improvement due to the aforementioned trends [1] - Leading pharmaceutical e-commerce companies are likely to leverage their main site advantages, including traffic and fulfillment cost benefits, to capitalize on new opportunities in AI search and health management [1] - The integration of AI in research and product development is anticipated to enhance the capabilities of these companies in the evolving market landscape [1]