随着AI基础设施建设的军备竞赛进入"深水区"，一个令投资者不安的转折点已然浮现：为了支撑AI算力需求，亚马逊、谷歌和Meta正面临自由现 金流被耗尽甚至透支的风险。 根据摩根大通2026年2月5日发布的研究报告，美国四大云巨头——亚马逊、谷歌、Meta和微软，2026年总资本支出预计将达到6450亿美元，同比 激增56%，新增支出将达到惊人的2300亿美元。 对于投资者而言，2026年，或将是紧盯科技巨头资产负债表的一年。 谷歌的97%增速与亚马逊的"现金赤字" 在这场基建狂潮中，谷歌的投入非常激进。 2026年，谷歌的资本支出指引已上调至1750亿至1850亿美元，同比增速高达97%，其资金正疯狂涌向服务器和技术基础设施。 如果说谷歌还只是在"疯狂花钱"，那么亚马逊则堪称"透支未来"。 2026年，亚马逊的资本支出指引约为2000亿美元（同比增长52%）。但问题的核心在于，亚马逊赚回来的现金已经盖不住支出了——据标普全球 市场分析师预测，亚马逊2026年的运营现金流（OCF）约为1780亿美元。 这意味着，亚马逊的资本支出将超过其运营现金流，导致实质性的现金净流出（Burn Cash）。此外，据《The I ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that major tech companies are significantly increasing their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, with a total expected spending of $660 billion (approximately 4.58 trillion RMB) this year, which is a 60% increase compared to 2025 and more than double the spending of 2024 [4][5] - Companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft are leading this investment trend, with Amazon projected to spend $200 billion by 2026, exceeding analyst expectations by 38% [5] - The competition among these tech giants has shifted from business operations to a focus on the underlying computational power needed for AI, indicating a strategic pivot in the industry [5][6] Group 2 - The massive capital expenditures have raised concerns about the financial performance of these companies, leading to a collective decline in their stock prices, with Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta experiencing drops of 4.48%, 6.77%, 12.11%, and 7.68% respectively [8] - Analysts predict that these high capital expenditures may negatively impact free cash flow, with forecasts indicating Amazon's free cash flow could be -$17 billion by 2026 and Alphabet's could plummet nearly 90% this year [10] - The market sentiment has shifted rapidly from fear of missing out (FOMO) to a defensive stance against tail risks, reflecting growing concerns over the sustainability of such high spending [8] Group 3 - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang supports the substantial investment in AI infrastructure, describing it as reasonable and sustainable, driven by high demand for computational power [12][15] - Huang emphasizes that as long as companies continue to profit from AI, they will keep increasing their investments, highlighting the potential for ongoing growth in the sector [15] - He notes that this investment wave represents one of the largest infrastructure builds in human history, driven by the needs of AI companies and large-scale enterprises [15]

继伯克希尔出手押注谷歌后，私募巨头景林和但斌旗下东方港湾都大举加仓谷歌。 东方港湾董事长但斌近日公开表示看好AI应用。他表示，如果说2025年是人工智能的起步蓄力阶段，那么2026年很可能成为AI应用万马奔腾的一年， （各类创新）此起彼伏。 谷歌成为景林在美第一大重仓股 当地时间2月6日，私募巨头景林资产的海外主体景林资产管理香港有限公司，向美国证券交易委员会（SEC）提交了截至2025年末的美股持仓数据。 2025年第四季度，景林香港公司大举增持谷歌-A（GOOGL）近93万股，使其成为新的第一大重仓股，季末持仓市值达到8.42亿美元，仓位占比超20%； 同时大幅减持英伟达154万股，减持Meta约23万股。 景林香港公司2025年第四季度主要持仓变动 图片来源：WhaleWisdom.com 增减持方面，除谷歌之外，景林香港公司还在2025年四季度增持了拼多多、富途控股、英特尔、华住集团等股票，新建仓博通；除减持英伟达、Meta之 外，景林香港公司还在2025年四季度减持了贝壳、联合健康、台积电等股票。 伯克希尔、但斌都重金买入谷歌 | BY CHANGE IN % PORTFOLIO | BY I | ...

在生成式ＡＩ引爆全球科技竞赛之后，算力已成为攸关国家战略、产业主导权与企业生死存亡的核心 军备。从ChatGPT掀起第一波浪潮，到各国政府、科技巨头竞相投入大型语言模型（ＬＬＭ）与加速 运算架构，随着投入金额与能源消耗快速攀升，市场也意识到，真正决定ＡＩ效能上限与成本结构 的，并非单纯堆叠通用型ＧＰＵ，而是能否打造「为特定工作量而生」的专用芯片。ASIC正是在这 场算力决战中，市场正着眼的焦点所在。 ASIC重塑算力版图 ASIC的核心在于以高度客制化的硬体设计，换取远高于通用芯片的效能功耗比与长期成本优势。不 同于ＧＰＵ的广泛适用性，从架构设计阶段即深度绑定目标工作负载，能精准配置运算单元、记忆体 层级与资料通道，最大程度降低无效运算与能源浪费，这使ASIC在大规模、长时间运行的ＡＩ训练 与推论场景中，能显著拉开与ＧＰＵ的成本差距。因而成为云端服务商（ＣＳＰ）与大型科技公司在 追求极致能效比与总拥有成本（ＴＣＯ）优化下的必然选择。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 真正决定AI效能上限与成本结构的，并非单纯堆叠通用型GPU，而是能否打造为特定工作量而生的 专用芯片。 AI模型规模与应用场景不断 ...

聚焦创投圈投融资最新情报。 2月2日，湖北社保科创股权投资基金合伙企业（有限合伙）在东湖高新区完成工商注册登记。 该基金由全国社会保障基金理事会、湖北省、武汉市、中国建设银行共同组建，首期规模200亿元。该基金定位为落实国家战略的市场化基金，是我国中 西部地区首只社保科创基金，将精准聚焦湖北光电子信息、汽车制造、生命健康、高端装备等特色产业、优势企业，服务传统产业改造升级、新兴产业培 育壮大、未来产业前瞻布局"三线并进"，打造兼顾政策目标与投资收益的长期资本、耐心资本，为湖北建设具有全国影响力的科技创新高地、加快建成中 部地区崛起的重要战略支点贡献力量。 2月3日，以"科创聚势，嘉速未来"为主题的嘉定科创产业发展合作联盟2025年度会议举行。会上，嘉定区未来产业基金启航。 作为由政府指导、市场化运作的政府投资基金，嘉定区未来产业基金总规模达8亿元，首期规模2亿元，由区级财政、区属国企及街镇集体企业共同出资。 该基金聚焦未来智能、未来能源、未来材料、未来健康、未来空间五大核心赛道，采用"子基金投资+直接投资"模式，重点支持具有颠覆性、多学科交叉 特点以及前沿平台性技术的早期孵化和项目投资。 近日，基金正式完成市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the communication equipment and services industry, particularly focusing on investment opportunities in CPO and related supply chain companies [3][11]. Core Insights - North American cloud vendors have reported better-than-expected earnings, with significant capital expenditure guidance increases from major players like Google and Amazon, indicating strong growth in the AI computing industry chain [3][11]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of the optical communication industry driven by AI applications, with leading companies achieving record highs in stock performance [6][9]. - The transition from Scale-OUT to Scale-UP in optical applications is emphasized, suggesting a broadening of application scenarios and increased demand for optical modules and components [6][9]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoint - The optical communication sector is experiencing unprecedented growth, with major cloud companies significantly increasing capital expenditures, leading to a strong performance in the optical communication supply chain [9]. - The report notes that while the market is currently experiencing fluctuations, long-term investment opportunities are becoming more apparent, particularly in the context of rising prices for optical fibers and components [9]. Industry News - Major cloud service providers like Google and Amazon have substantially raised their capital expenditure forecasts for 2026, with Google estimating between $175 billion and $185 billion, nearly double that of 2025, and Amazon projecting around $200 billion, a 50% increase from the previous year [11][24][25]. - The report discusses the implications of a recent tax increase on value-added services in China, which may impact the revenue and profit margins of major telecom operators [12]. Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the proportion of holdings in the optical communication sector has increased, reflecting a positive market sentiment driven by AI-related infrastructure investments [11][41]. - The domestic new generation computing infrastructure is set to enter a new cycle, with significant opportunities arising from the ongoing global infrastructure wave [11][41]. - The report suggests that the AI-driven network upgrades will enhance communication capabilities, leading to rapid advancements in network innovation and technology applications [11][41].

Group 1 - The core narrative is that the story of AI is shifting from "software eating the world" to "hardware being constrained by the world," highlighting a growing risk in the investment landscape due to political and physical limitations on data center expansion [1][15] - A rare bipartisan consensus has emerged between Senator Bernie Sanders and Governor Ron DeSantis regarding the need to halt the rapid increase of data centers, driven by public concerns over the negative impacts of AI [2][3] - The political landscape is changing, with states like New York, Arizona, Georgia, and Texas considering legislation to pause new data center projects or eliminate tax incentives, reflecting a growing backlash against the expansion of AI infrastructure [2][3] Group 2 - The anticipated capital expenditure of approximately $600 billion in 2026 faces skepticism regarding its feasibility, as major tech companies plan to spend $670 billion on AI infrastructure this year alone [4][6] - The energy demand from data centers is projected to double by 2035, raising concerns about whether the current U.S. power grid can meet this demand, which is already causing regulatory issues in Texas [8][9] - The financial markets are reacting to the risk of unspent capital, leading to significant sell-offs in tech stocks and a shift towards defensive sectors, indicating a potential reevaluation of the AI investment landscape [10][12][13]

微信屏蔽元宝、千问红包链接 2月4日上午，记者在微信群中点入好友发出的元宝红包，显示"网页包含诱导分享、关注等诱导行为"， 提醒用户可以通过浏览器访问。随后，元宝红包在微信的分享改为口令的形式。微信安全中心公众号发 文称，微信对以春节为主题集中爆发的过度营销、诱导分享等违规行为进行打击。2月6日，千问在春节 活动的第一天，微信链接也被屏蔽了，部分用户在千问APP点击分享活动至微信好友时，已自动改为复 制口令形式。 【点评】:这场争夺AI入口的春节"撒币"大战，正变得前所未有地复杂与激烈。各厂商抢夺AI入口，但 可能都没有预料到，最激烈的竞争出现在国内最大的社交平台微信上。目前看来，或许微信社交裂变的 方式无法成为任何一家AI应用厂商扩大用户池的杀手锏。或许各大厂商接下来要靠产品实力说话了。 SpaceX收购xAI，马斯克打造AI太空帝国 当地时间2月2日，马斯克旗下的太空探索技术公司SpaceX宣布收购人工智能初创公司xAI。在公告中， 马斯克强调，将xAI并入SpaceX，旨在打造一个"垂直整合的创新引擎"，覆盖从地面到太空的完整技术 链条。该公告发布于xAI官网，并由马斯克本人署名。据外媒援引知情人士消息 ...

Recent data on the U.S. job market has flashed some worrying signs lately, but the construction industry sees greater demand for workers. The Associated Builders and Contractors trade group estimated in a report last month the industry will need to bring in 456,000 new workers in 2027, up 30.7% from the 349,000 needed this year. “Failing to do so will worsen labor shortages, especially in certain occupations and regions, placing further upward pressure on labor costs,” ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu ...

Core Insights - Alphabet is positioned to become the leader in artificial intelligence (AI) over the next few years due to its strategic developments and market share growth [1][3]. Market Position - Google Gemini is rapidly increasing its market share and is projected to surpass ChatGPT soon, having grown from 7% to 21% market share, while ChatGPT has fallen from 50% to 27% [4][5]. - Competitors like Anthropic have also seen significant growth, increasing from 12% to 40% market share, indicating a competitive landscape [5]. Technological Advancements - Alphabet is developing its own proprietary AI hardware, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU), which serves as an alternative to Nvidia's GPU, enhancing its competitive edge [6]. - Anthropic is utilizing Alphabet's TPU, indicating that Alphabet benefits from its competitors' reliance on its hardware [6]. Financial Performance - Alphabet is already profitable, with projected revenue exceeding $400 billion in 2025, marking a 15% increase from 2024, and a net income of $132.1 billion, up 32% from the previous year [7]. - The company plans to significantly increase its capital expenditures in 2026 to between $175 billion and $185 billion, indicating strong investment in future growth [9].