With a decade at a Big 4 audit firm specializing in the banking, mining, and energy sectors, I bring a strong foundation in finance and strategy. Currently, I serve as the Head of Finance for a leading owner and operator of retail real estate, where I oversee complex financial operations and strategy. I’ve been an active investor in the U.S. stock market for 13 years, starting with my very first paycheck. Over time, my portfolio has evolved to reflect a balanced approach, with a growing focus on value stock ...

Market Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September is set to be released at 8:30 AM Eastern, which is expected to significantly influence monetary policy expectations and could lead to market volatility if it deviates from forecasts [1] - Updated readings on Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs for October will be released at 9:45 AM Eastern, providing insights into economic momentum following the Federal Reserve's policy stance [2] SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) - SPY opens at 673.75, with potential upward movement towards 675.00, 676.20, and possibly 677.40 if bullish momentum continues [4] - If SPY falls below 673.75, it may decline to 672.45, with further downside risks reaching 671.15 and 669.95 [5] Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ) - QQQ starts at 613.75, with upward targets at 614.90, 616.05, and 617.20 if bullish sentiment prevails [6] - A drop below 613.75 could lead to declines towards 612.50 and 611.30, with further weakness potentially reaching 610.10 [7] Apple Inc. (AAPL) - AAPL opens at 260.50, with potential upward movement towards 261.45, 262.40, and 263.35 if the stock holds above its recent higher base [8] - If AAPL slips below 260.50, it may decline to 259.55, with further downside risks reaching 258.60 and 257.65 [9] Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - MSFT begins at 521.75, with upward targets at 522.95, 524.20, and 525.40 if bullish momentum continues [10] - A break below 521.75 could lead to declines towards 520.55 and 519.35, with heavier downside risks reaching 518.10 [11] NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) - NVDA opens at 183.25, with potential upward movement towards 184.30, 185.35, and 186.40 if accumulation continues [12] - If NVDA loses 183.25, it may decline to 182.20, with further downside risks reaching 181.15 and 180.10 [13] Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) - GOOGL starts at 256.25, with upward targets at 257.20, 258.15, and 259.10 if the stock maintains its positive tone [14] - A failure to hold above 256.25 could lead to declines towards 255.25 and 254.20, with deeper selling risks reaching 253.15 [15] Meta Platforms Inc (META) - META opens at 737.50, with potential upward movement towards 739.70, 741.85, and 744.00 if bullish sentiment remains strong [16] - If META falls below 737.50, it may decline to 735.35, with further downside risks reaching 733.20 and 731.10 [17] Tesla Inc. (TSLA) - TSLA begins at 446.25, with upward targets at 447.85, 449.45, and 451.00 if buyers build a firmer base [18] - A drop below 446.25 could lead to declines towards 444.65 and 443.05, with heavier downside risks reaching 441.50 [19]

Core Insights - The cloud computing business is becoming increasingly significant in discussions about Alphabet's stock valuation, although it remains smaller compared to Amazon's cloud services [1][3] - Google stock has seen a 30% increase in 2025, reaching an all-time high of 256 and surpassing a $3 trillion valuation [1] - Google reported second-quarter earnings with cloud revenue of $13.62 billion, exceeding estimates of $13.14 billion [4] Cloud Computing - Google is leveraging its artificial intelligence capabilities to enhance its cloud computing business, attracting new customers like OpenAI and Meta Platforms [5] - The acquisition of cybersecurity firm Wiz for $32 billion is expected to enhance Google's cloud market share against competitors like Amazon and Microsoft [6] - Despite potential revenue growth, profitability remains a concern as Amazon's cloud business has higher gross margins [6] Stock Performance and Technical Analysis - Google stock has recently pulled back but is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average, with a potential sell signal if it falls below this line [2] - The Relative Strength Rating of GOOGL stock is currently 88 out of 99, indicating strong performance [15] - GOOGL stock holds an IBD Composite Rating of 98, reflecting its strong fundamental and technical metrics [16] Antitrust Issues - A federal judge ruled that no asset divestitures are required in an antitrust case related to Google's internet search business, positively impacting stock performance [7] - However, a separate digital advertising antitrust case may lead to significant changes, with the government suggesting Google sell its Google Ad Manager [8][9] AI and Search Innovations - Google is adapting to competition from AI-driven search engines by overhauling its search results, introducing AI Overviews that now have over 1.5 billion monthly active users [10][11] - The new Agent Payments Protocol (AP2) aims to enhance payment processes in AI-driven transactions [12] Capital Expenditure - Google anticipates capital spending to reach $85 billion in 2025, a 62% increase from previous guidance, reflecting the company's commitment to AI and cloud infrastructure [13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) as a key indicator of future revenue in the AI investment landscape, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties behind this seemingly positive metric [5][6][8]. RPO Overview - RPO represents the portion of legally binding contracts that a company has yet to fulfill and recognize as revenue, excluding optional renewals or contracts with minimal penalties for termination [8]. - A growing RPO balance typically indicates strong new orders and solid customer relationships, while a declining RPO may signal slowing sales momentum or shorter contract durations [8]. RPO Growth Among Key Players - Significant RPO growth has been observed among major companies in the AI ecosystem over the past six quarters: - Microsoft: RPO increased by 55% - Coreweave: RPO surged by 218% - Oracle: RPO skyrocketed by 411%, with a notable increase of approximately $65 billion from just four customers [9]. RPO Quality Analysis - Not all RPOs are equal; the quality and composition of RPO vary significantly among companies. For instance, Oracle and Coreweave's large RPOs stem from long-term contracts, while Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have shorter contract durations [13]. - The ratio of RPO to the last 12 months' revenue reveals that Coreweave and Oracle have ratios of 14.4x and 8.5x, respectively, compared to Microsoft's 1.3x and Amazon's and Google's approximately 0.3x [14][16]. Valuation Implications - Comparing RPO to market capitalization provides insights into valuation impacts. Coreweave and Oracle's RPO accounts for 81% and 60% of their market value, respectively, while Microsoft's ratio is only 9% [18][19]. - This disparity indicates that investors attribute a significant portion of Coreweave and Oracle's value to their contracted future revenues, whereas Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are valued based on broader growth opportunities [20]. Nvidia's Unique Model - In contrast to the RPO surges of other companies, Nvidia's RPO has remained at a lower average of $1.8 billion over the past year, reflecting its unique "optional procurement" business model, which does not involve binding commitments before order submission [24]. - This model provides Nvidia with flexibility but limits revenue visibility through RPO metrics [26]. Conclusion - RPO serves as a powerful tool for assessing future growth certainty in the AI sector, but it is crucial to analyze the underlying contract durations, profit margins, execution risks, and customer concentration [26][29].

Group 1 - Nvidia announced a partnership with Uber to develop autonomous driving technology, utilizing real driving data collected by Uber to train Nvidia's Cosmos World model, leading to a 3.5% increase in Uber's stock price on the announcement day [5] - Samsung and SK Hynix are raising memory prices by up to 30% in Q4 to meet the surge in demand for AI-driven storage chips, indicating a prolonged and intensified "supercycle" in the memory market [6] - Oracle is set to issue a record $38 billion in bonds to fund data centers, marking the largest transaction in AI infrastructure, with $23.25 billion allocated for a Texas data center and $14.75 billion for a Wisconsin project [8] Group 2 - Anthropic confirmed an expanded agreement with Google to utilize more cloud services and TPU processors, with the deal valued in the hundreds of billions and expected to bring over 1 gigawatt of capacity online by 2026 [10] - Microsoft introduced a new character named Mico as part of its efforts to enhance its generative AI Copilot application, positioning itself against competitors like OpenAI's ChatGPT and Google's Gemini [11] - The UK Competition Appeal Tribunal ruled against Apple in a lawsuit regarding unfair App Store commissions, which allegedly cost consumers approximately £1.5 billion, allowing collective representatives to seek damages [12][13]

Core Insights - Dongfang Hongyuan Overseas Fund, led by Dan Bin, revealed its Q3 portfolio adjustments, increasing its holdings from 13 to 17 stocks, with a management scale of $1.292 billion (approximately 9.2 billion RMB) [2] - The fund made significant moves, including a substantial purchase of Alibaba and a focus on the AI industry chain, while reducing positions in Amazon and Netflix [3][6] Portfolio Adjustments - In Q3, the fund initiated five new positions, including Alibaba, Broadcom, Astera Labs, BitMine Immersion Technologies, and a 2x long GOOGL ETF [3] - The largest new position was in Alibaba, acquiring 221,000 shares valued at $39.5 million, representing 3.06% of the portfolio [3] - The fund reduced its holdings in Amazon and Netflix by 50% and 71.5%, respectively, causing both stocks to exit the top ten holdings [3] AI Industry Focus - The fund strengthened its AI industry chain by adding two semiconductor companies, Broadcom and Astera Labs, with purchases of 29,000 and 64,000 shares, respectively [6] - Nvidia and Google remain the top two holdings, with respective values of $236 million and $224 million, together accounting for 35% of the total portfolio [6] - The fund's research director emphasized that the risk of missing out on the AI revolution outweighs the risks associated with potential bubbles, viewing AI as a long-term technological revolution [6][7] Market Dynamics - The recent partnerships formed by OpenAI with Oracle, SoftBank, and Coweave are seen as a significant development in the AI computing landscape, indicating a growing demand for AI computing power [7] - The ongoing debate about AI computing bubbles is expected to persist throughout the development cycle of AI, with the current stage viewed as early and valuations considered reasonable [7]

Graphics processing units, or GPUs, the part of the chip market dominated by Nvidia, were created to speed the rendering of graphics — mainly in video games and other visual-effects applications — but turned out to be well-suited to training AI models because they can handle large amounts of data and computations. TPUs, on the other hand, are a type of specialized product known as application specific integrated circuits, or microchips that were designed for a discrete purpose.Google’s deal with Anthropic i ...

Core Insights - Anthropic has secured a significant agreement with Google Cloud to expand its use of tensor processing units (TPUs), which will enhance its computing capacity for future Claude models [1][2] - The deal is valued at tens of billions of dollars and represents Anthropic's largest TPU commitment to date, including over 1 Gigawatt (1GW) of capacity coming online in 2026 and access to up to one million TPU chips [1][2] Group 1 - The expanded TPU capacity will support Anthropic's research and development teams in training and deploying subsequent Claude models [2] - Google Cloud's CEO highlighted the strong price-performance and efficiency of TPUs, which have been beneficial for Anthropic's operations [2][3] - The agreement builds on a strategic partnership initiated in 2023, where Anthropic began utilizing Google Cloud's AI infrastructure for model training [3] Group 2 - Numerous businesses, including Figma and Palo Alto Networks, are reported to use Claude models on Google Cloud, indicating a broad adoption of Anthropic's technology [4] - Anthropic's CFO emphasized the importance of this expansion in meeting the growing demand for AI capabilities while maintaining industry-leading model performance [4][5] - Google Cloud has recently launched G4 virtual machines powered by Nvidia RTX PRO 6000 Blackwell Server GPUs, further enhancing its AI offerings [5]

Core Viewpoint - Disney warns that if a new agreement is not reached by October 30 at 11:59 PM ET, major networks like ESPN and ABC may be removed from YouTube TV, affecting nearly 10 million subscribers [1] Group 1: Disney's Position - Disney is seeking to increase subscription fees from YouTube TV, leading to ongoing disputes regarding new economic terms [1] - The company has begun notifying YouTube TV customers about potential service interruptions [1] Group 2: YouTube TV's Response - YouTube TV expresses concern that Disney's proposed terms are costly, which would result in higher fees for users and a reduced selection of available channels [1] - Currently, YouTube TV subscribers pay $72.99 per month, and if channels are removed, prices may significantly increase due to advantageous negotiation positions for the companies involved [1] - In the event of a prolonged outage of Disney's networks, YouTube TV plans to offer a $20 credit to affected subscribers [1]

Core Insights - Recent actions by private equity figure Dan Bin have attracted significant market attention, particularly his resignation as general manager of Dongfang Port Bay and the change of his identity from "China" to "Hong Kong," which may facilitate overseas asset allocation and fundraising [1][4] - Dongfang Port Bay's overseas fund submitted a 13F report to the SEC, revealing a portfolio worth $1.292 billion (approximately 9.2 billion RMB) with 17 holdings, indicating a strategic focus on AI technology and related sectors [1][4][6] Group 1: Investment Strategy - Dan Bin's investment strategy in Q3 heavily focused on AI technology, computing infrastructure, and AI applications, with significant positions in Nvidia and Google, which are key players in the AI sector [4][5] - The largest holding is Nvidia, valued at $236 million, with a year-to-date increase of over 38%, followed by Google at $224 million, which has risen by 27.89% this year [4][5] - New investments include Alibaba, Astera Labs, and Broadcom, reflecting a strong belief in the growth potential of the AI industry [6][7] Group 2: Market Trends - The tech sector has shown robust performance, with the Nasdaq index rising 11.24% in Q3, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks like Nvidia and Google [4] - The global economic environment is experiencing a mild recovery, with increased policy support for technological innovation, particularly in AI, which is becoming a strategic focus for many countries [5][8] - The commercialization of AI technology is transitioning from conceptual to practical applications, enhancing business efficiency and competitiveness across various sectors [5][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - Dan Bin's optimistic view on hard technology investments suggests a belief in the long-term growth of AI applications beyond just large models, indicating a shift towards vertical application companies [5][8] - The investment landscape for AI is evolving, with a focus on companies that demonstrate sustainable growth potential, as the market moves away from previous high-valuation bubbles [8] - The competitive landscape in the semiconductor and hardware sectors remains clear, while the algorithm and cloud service sectors are rapidly evolving, presenting unique investment opportunities [7][8]