美国第二大银行——美国银行(BAC.US)——的股价在12月创下历史新高，终于超过了其在2006年、金 融危机前达到的峰值。美国规模最大的摩根大通(JPM.US)以及第四大的富国银行(WFC.US)的股价目前 也都处在历史高位。花旗集团(C.US)的股价则在七年来首次超过其每股账面价值，但仍较其2000年的历 史峰值低约80%。 一项追踪这些银行及美国另外20家最大放贷机构的关键指数——KBW银行指数(BKX)——今年迄今已 上涨29%，跑赢标普500指数13个百分点。富国银行分析师迈克.梅奥(Mike Mayo)表示："这无疑比我们 年初预期的上涨空间更大。"他补充称："大型银行在2026年将再次跑赢大盘。" 美国最大的银行正在以强势姿态结束2025年——股价创下历史新高，资产负债表规模更大，同时享有过 去15年来前所未有的监管自由度。在未来几年里，这个行业及其头部机构计划把这股势头转化为一段持 续的增长故事。 与此同时，自2025年年初以来，摩根大通的市值已增加约2000亿美元，使其更接近成为全球首家市值达 到1万亿美元的银行。自2019年以来，摩根大通一直向投资者承诺，在整个经济周期中实现17%的 RO ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are expected to become favored by Wall Street by early 2026, with asset management firms betting on a prolonged inflow cycle that has already begun [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - Capital inflows into emerging markets this year have reached the best performance since 2009, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards this previously underperforming asset class [1] - Emerging market stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks for the first time since 2017, and the yield spread between emerging market bonds and U.S. Treasuries has narrowed to the lowest level in 11 years [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that emerging market bond funds could see inflows of up to $50 billion next year, with expectations of price appreciation and yield benefits from local currency bonds [4] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - A recent investment conference by Bank of America revealed that nearly all investors are optimistic about emerging markets, with no significant pessimism reported [3] - AllianceBernstein's Sammy Suzuki noted a shift in perception, stating that questions about the investment value of emerging markets have diminished [3] - Gama Asset Management's Rajeev De Mello believes there is still room for significant over-allocation towards emerging markets [5] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - There is a potential fundamental shift in global capital flows, with portfolio managers eager to diversify away from the U.S. and attracted by progress in debt reduction and inflation control in developing countries [3] - Despite recent rebounds, the overall scale of capital inflows remains relatively small compared to previous outflows, indicating that emerging markets still have insufficient representation in global portfolios [4] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - The recent rebound in emerging markets may mask underlying vulnerabilities, particularly concerning the U.S. dollar, which has declined by 8% this year, providing support for emerging market assets [6] - Citigroup suggests that investors should only buy emerging market assets that can withstand a potential strengthening of the dollar [6] - As of mid-December, emerging market bond funds saw a significant inflow of $4 billion, marking the largest weekly inflow since July [7]

December 19, 2025 11:38 PM GMT Global Macro Strategist Top 10 Surprises for 2026 A year without surprises would be a surprise itself. We discuss 10 market surprises that could make investors think differently. Surprise #1: Jobless productivity bull-flattens UST curve: Supply-driven disinflation leads to lower term premia, and lower short rates lead to less deficit concerns, given issuance mix – flattening the yield curve vs. forwards. Surprise #2: Back to negative equity-bond correlations: With inflation ex ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is emerging as a competitive investment bank for SpaceX's potential IPO due to its long-standing relationship with CEO Elon Musk [1][3] Group 1: IPO Competition - The underwriting arrangement for SpaceX's IPO is not yet finalized, with several major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase, competing for key underwriting roles [3] - Although Morgan Stanley is considered a strong candidate for the lead underwriter position due to its historical ties with Musk, no final decisions have been made [3][4] Group 2: Historical Relationship - Morgan Stanley has a deep history of collaboration with Musk, having participated in Tesla's IPO in 2010 and advising Musk on the acquisition of Twitter (now X) in 2022 [4] - Musk appointed Anthony Armstrong from Morgan Stanley as CFO of his AI company xAI, further solidifying their relationship [4] Group 3: IPO Preparation - SpaceX's CFO Bret Johnsen indicated in an internal memo that the company is preparing for a public listing in 2026, although the timing and valuation remain uncertain [4] - The IPO could potentially raise over $25 billion, making it one of the largest public offerings globally [5] Group 4: Business Operations - SpaceX has evolved from a rocket launch company to the world's largest satellite operator with nearly 10,000 satellites, providing broadband services [6] - The IPO may encompass both rocket and satellite internet businesses, with funds raised aimed at increasing the launch frequency of the next-generation Starship rocket and supporting the development of AI data centers in space [6] - Starlink remains SpaceX's primary revenue source, and the company is expanding into wireless communication with initiatives like "Starlink Mobile" [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses a resurgence of traditional diversified investment strategies centered around index ETFs amidst an unprecedented AI investment boom in 2025, highlighting the strong performance of diversified asset allocation compared to concentrated bets on major tech stocks [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - In 2025, there is a noticeable rotation in global stock markets from tech stocks to value and cyclical sectors, indicating a shift towards diversified investment strategies that have generated significant excess alpha returns [1][3]. - Major Wall Street institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, predict a continued rotation in 2026 towards traditional value stocks, small caps, and cyclical sectors, suggesting that non-tech stocks may yield better returns than popular AI tech stocks [2][3]. Group 2: Performance of Investment Strategies - A simple stock-bond portfolio achieved double-digit gains in 2025, marking the best year since 2019, while multi-asset quantitative strategies significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index [4]. - Cambria Investments' ETF, which covers a broad range of global stocks, recorded its best annual performance, benefiting from strong gains in international markets outside the U.S. [4][11]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Despite the strong performance of diversified strategies, there is a continued trend of investors moving away from these strategies, with diversified asset funds experiencing net outflows for 13 consecutive quarters [5][9]. - The article notes that while funds are flowing into pure equity and bond funds, the traditional diversified strategies remain out of favor among retail investors [9][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts expect a broader bull market in 2026, with a focus on cyclical stocks benefiting from a "rolling recovery" phase in the U.S. economy, driven by improved corporate earnings and a favorable macroeconomic environment [15][18]. - The anticipated economic policies under the Trump administration are expected to favor commodity investments, suggesting a shift in investment paradigms towards fiscal expansion and de-globalization [20].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is expected to become the lead underwriter for SpaceX's initial public offering (IPO), leveraging its close relationship with CEO Elon Musk [1] Group 1: IPO Preparation - Elon Musk has not yet selected the lead underwriter, but a decision may be made by the end of the year, with the full underwriting syndicate potentially finalized shortly thereafter [1] - Although preparations are underway, the IPO is contingent on market conditions, and SpaceX may choose to delay or abandon the listing altogether [1] Group 2: Morgan Stanley's Role - Morgan Stanley has provided advisory services to Musk for many years, including participation in Tesla's 2010 IPO, which involved a syndicate that included Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Deutsche Bank [1] - The firm also acted as an advisor and led financing in Musk's acquisition of Twitter (now X) in 2022 [1] Group 3: Future Plans - SpaceX's CFO, Bret Johnsen, indicated in an internal memo that the company is preparing for a public listing in 2026 [1]

China now has 3.75 terawatts of power generation capacity, nearly three times more than the U.S., which has 1.30 terawatts, according to the power energy capacity cited by market commentator The Kobeissi Letter on Friday. China currently has 34 nuclear reactors under construction, more than the next nine countries combined, according to The Kobeissi Letter post on X. Nearly 200 additional reactors are planned or proposed. In contrast, the U.S. has no large commercial nuclear reactors under construction.Chin ...

华见早安之声 市场概述 科技股力挺， 美股无惧周五 创纪录"三巫日"动荡继续走高，三大股指 两连阳，纳指两日均涨超1%，和标普全周惊险转涨，但道指一个月来首度周跌； TikTok协议消息后， 甲骨文大涨6.6%，带动AI股和芯片股走高，芯片指数涨3%，AMD涨超6%， 英伟达涨近4%；特斯拉逆市回落，但全周涨近5%。欧央 行上调经济预期后，泛欧股指两日连创历史新高。 日本央行加息后， 全球债市价格齐跌。10年期日债收益率1999年来首次升破2.0%；法国预算案谈判破裂，30年期法债收益率创2009年来新高；美联储"三把 手"称不急于降息， 美债收益率加速反弹。 美元指数三连涨至一周高位、扭转全周跌势； 日央行加息前景"审慎"， 日元盘中跌超1%至四周新低，创逾两月最差表现；离岸人民币暂别14个月高位，连 涨四周；加密货币反弹，比特币一度较日高涨近5%、重新逼近9万美元，以太坊盘中涨超7%。 金银反弹， 银铜齐创历史新高，黄金盘中转涨、靠近纪录高位；白银本周二度创新高，期银盘中涨近4%，连涨四周；伦铜时隔一周又收创新高，一周涨超 3%；原油盘中涨超1%，连续三日反弹、仍连跌两周。 亚洲时段，A股和港股股指数集体 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley is emerging as a key contender for the lead underwriter role in SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO, leveraging its long-standing relationship with Elon Musk [1] - The selection process for SpaceX's IPO underwriters is ongoing, with top investment banks including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase competing for the underwriting position [1] - Although Morgan Stanley is currently favored, it is not yet confirmed that it will secure the lead underwriter status [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley has been a significant advisor to Musk over the years, having participated in Tesla's IPO in 2010 and led the financing arrangements for Musk's acquisition of Twitter in 2022 [1] - Recently, Musk appointed Anthony Armstrong, a banker from Morgan Stanley who was involved in the Twitter acquisition, as the CFO of xAI [1] - A decision regarding the lead underwriter is expected to be made by the end of this year, with the complete underwriting syndicate to be determined afterward [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is positioned as a leading contender for a significant role in SpaceX's upcoming initial public offering (IPO), largely due to its longstanding relationship with CEO Elon Musk [1][3]. Group 1: IPO Process - A selection process, referred to as a "bake-off," is currently ongoing, with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan competing for underwriting roles [2]. - Although Morgan Stanley is viewed as a strong candidate for the "lead left" underwriting position, no final decisions have been made yet [3]. Group 2: Relationship with Elon Musk - Morgan Stanley's relationship with Musk spans over 15 years, enhancing its chances of leading the underwriting syndicate [3]. - The bank has previously advised Musk on significant transactions, including Tesla's IPO in 2010 and the financing for Musk's acquisition of Twitter in 2022 [5]. Group 3: IPO Timing and Market Conditions - SpaceX's potential IPO is expected to be complex, with a decision on lead banks anticipated by the end of the year, although the final syndicate will be confirmed later [4]. - The IPO's execution is contingent on market conditions, and there is a possibility that SpaceX may delay or cancel the offering [4]. Group 4: Future Plans - SpaceX's CFO indicated in a staff memo that the company is preparing for a public offering in 2026, but the timing and valuation remain uncertain [7].