亚洲经济 | Asia Pacific December 16, 2025 09:52 AM GMT M Idea 观点：印度或将成为2026年令 人意外的逆转主题 投资者目前对印度持观望态度，原因是印度面临多重问题， 最近的焦点是卢比疲软。我们认为这些担忧被夸大了。受益 于更强劲的名义GDP增长，印度或将在2026年为亚洲投资者 提供最大的上行惊喜。 要点 在本报告中，我们将回应投资者对名义GDP增长和外汇前景的担忧，并解释为什 么我们认为增长复苏将有助于缓解这些顾虑。 This translated report is made available for convenience only and is based on the original research report published in English. In the event of any discrepancy between the translation and the original research report, the content in the original research report will preva ...

与此同时，摩根士丹利预计2026年锌价将小幅下跌至每吨2,900美元。该行表示："随着中国锌出口的增 加，伦敦金属交易所（LME）库存回升，且矿产供应将在2026年继续增长，我们认为2026年锌价将小 幅下行。" 摩根士丹利预计，随着需求增长与供应增长速度相近，镍价将朝向每吨15,500美元回落。该银行表示， 印尼的政策变化对供应构成下行风险，而在电动汽车电池的市场份额的持续下滑抑制了需求，导致市场 在2026年之前持续供过于求。 摩根士丹利在一份报告中指出，预计到2026年第二季度，铝价将达到每吨3,250美元，因为需求将超过 供应。同时，铜/铝价格比率处于近期区间的顶部，表明价格仍有上涨空间。 12月16日（周二），摩根士丹利修正了其对2026年铝、锌、镍和铅的价格预测，理由是预期降息、美元 走软以及投资者对实物资产需求的增长推动了金属市场前景强劲。 该银行还预计，2025年铜市将出现26万吨的供应缺口，2026年缺口将达到60万吨。 摩根士丹利表示，美国以外的铜库存较低，如果美国继续进口铜，由于数据中心需求的增长超过供应增 长，铜库存可能会减少。 铅方面，摩根士丹利预测，平均价格将略高于每吨2,000美 ...

In a banner year for share sales in Asia, one bank has pulled far ahead of the rest: Morgan Stanley https://t.co/YKyyLBkyPq ...

As anxiety over an artificial-intelligence bubble reached a fever pitch in recent months, no Wall Street bank helped the industry power past the noise like Morgan Stanley https://t.co/C1JDFhoCJQ ...

Group 1 - Several foreign institutions, including UBS, JPMorgan, and Fidelity International, believe that Chinese assets have a solid foundation for continued rebound due to profit growth, accelerated innovation, and attractive valuations in their 2026 macroeconomic and stock market outlooks [1] - International long-term capital is showing strong interest in Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like healthcare, robotics, and low-altitude economy, with significant investments from Middle Eastern funds [2] - As of November, foreign long-term capital net bought approximately $10 billion in A-shares and H-shares, contrasting sharply with an outflow of about $17 billion in 2024, indicating a positive trend in foreign investment [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank projects that consumption will remain the main driver of China's economic growth, with a recovery in investment contributions and strong export performance [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for effective qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, which is expected to support ongoing structural reforms [5] - UBS highlights that the technology sector in China represents one of the most significant global opportunities, with expected corporate profit growth of up to 37% in 2026, driven by ample liquidity [6]

Core Insights - The sale of an Amazon distribution center near Los Angeles International Airport for $211 million marks a record price, reflecting the increasing value of logistics centers near transportation hubs [2][3] - The distribution center, covering 143,060 square feet, was built to serve Amazon and is located in a highly sought-after industrial corridor, with low vacancy rates and limited land availability around LAX [3][4] - Institutional investors, including Morgan Stanley, are actively acquiring modern logistics assets, driven by the rise of e-commerce and the need for well-located facilities [4][6] Real Estate Market Trends - Industrial sales volume in Los Angeles has increased by 4% year-over-year, with a total sales volume exceeding $5 billion and over 800 transactions year-to-date, surpassing the totals of the previous two years [7] - Lower interest rates have contributed to the rise in industrial sales, making capital costs more favorable for investors [7] - Morgan Stanley has been a significant player in the market, accounting for about one-third of the acquisition volume in Los Angeles this year [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that the rise in gold prices will slow down next year due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but expectations of interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will support upward momentum, with gold prices expected to reach $4,800 per ounce by Q4 next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - The rise in gold prices is expected to slow down as central banks and ETFs reduce their purchases [1] - Factors supporting gold prices include anticipated interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and strong retail demand from China [1] - Gold prices are projected to reach $4,800 per ounce by the fourth quarter of next year [1] Group 2: Silver Market - This year is expected to be a peak period for silver shortages, with silver price trends likely lagging behind gold next year [1] - Investment demand is anticipated to continue driving silver prices upward [1] Group 3: Other Precious Metals - Platinum prices are expected to be $1,775 per ounce next year [1] - Palladium prices are projected to be $1,325 per ounce next year [1]

As anxiety over an artificial-intelligence bubble reached a fever pitch in recent months, no Wall Street bank helped the industry power past the noise like Morgan Stanley https://t.co/OxH9tTkcDO ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has revised its price forecasts for aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead for 2026, indicating significant changes in the metals market [1] Aluminum - The forecast for aluminum prices is set to reach $3,250 per ton by the second quarter of 2026 [1] Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to slightly decline to $2,900 per ton by 2026 [1] Nickel - Nickel prices are projected to fall to around $15,500 per ton, attributed to the balance between demand and supply growth [1] Lead - Morgan Stanley predicts that the average price for lead will be just above $2,000 per ton, influenced by high LME inventories indicating an oversupply in the market [1] Copper - A supply deficit of 260,000 tons is anticipated in the copper market for 2025, which is expected to increase to 600,000 tons in 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold price growth will slow down by 2026 due to reduced purchases by central banks and exchange-traded funds, but expected interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar will maintain upward momentum for gold [1] Group 1: Gold Market - By Q4 2026, gold prices are expected to reach $4,800 per ounce, driven by increased retail demand in China, stronger central bank purchasing power, and global growth concerns [1] - The anticipated decline in purchases by central banks and ETFs will contribute to a moderation in gold price growth [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver's performance is expected to lag behind gold due to a projected decrease in solar equipment installations by 2026, leading to a peak in silver shortages by 2025 [1] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium - Platinum prices are forecasted to be $1,775 per ounce by 2026, while palladium prices are expected to reach $1,325 per ounce, reflecting structural imbalances and changes in demand drivers [1]