中证网讯①据国投瑞银基金公告称，国投白银LOF将于1月30日开市起停牌至收市。此外，原油LOF易 方达、嘉实原油LOF等将自1月30日开市起停牌一小时。 ②当地时间1月29日，美股三大指数收盘涨跌不一，大型科技股多数上涨。美国科技巨头微软股价重 挫，跌近10%。 ③商品方面，国际金银现货价格一度重挫，随后快速回升，期现货价格走势分化。(张舒琳) ...

Core Insights - Microsoft reported Q2 FY26 revenue of $81.3 billion, a 17% year-over-year increase, with operating income up 21% and adjusted EPS at $4.14, reflecting a 24% increase [1] - Cloud revenue surpassed $50 billion for the first time, reaching $51.5 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year [1] - The company’s commercial order volume grew by 230% year-over-year, driven by significant long-term commitments from clients like OpenAI [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue: $81.3 billion, up 17% YoY (15% at constant currency) [1] - Operating income: up 21% YoY (19% at constant currency) [1] - Adjusted EPS: $4.14, up 24% YoY (21% at constant currency) [1] - Cloud revenue: $51.5 billion, up 26% YoY (24% at constant currency) [1] - Gross margin: 67% [1] Business Outlook - Q3 revenue forecast: $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion, a 15%-17% YoY increase [1] - Expected cost of revenue: $26.65 billion to $26.85 billion, a 22% YoY increase [1] - Anticipated operating expenses: $17.8 billion to $17.9 billion, a 10%-11% YoY increase [1] - Capital expenditures expected to decrease quarter-over-quarter due to normal fluctuations in cloud infrastructure construction [1] Strategic Focus - The company’s strategy emphasizes three layers of technology stack: cloud and token factory, agent platform, and superior agent experience [2] - The impact of AI on GDP and Total Addressable Market (TAM) growth is just beginning [2] - The agent platform is seen as the next generation of application platforms, requiring various services for deployment and management [2] Capital Expenditure and ROI - CapEx growth is driven by long-term demand, with investments aimed at supporting applications like M365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot [3] - Azure's growth guidance is linked to capacity allocation rather than immediate revenue [3] - The average contract duration for RPO has increased from 2 years to 2.5 years, indicating a more stable revenue outlook [3] OpenAI Partnership - Approximately 45% of the unfulfilled orders (RPO) are related to OpenAI, with the remaining 55% reflecting a diverse business portfolio [4][5] - The partnership with OpenAI is viewed positively, contributing to Microsoft's leadership in technology and application innovation [5] Capacity Expansion - The company is focused on increasing capacity globally, with significant projects in Atlanta and Wisconsin [6] - Long-term infrastructure development is prioritized to ensure efficient deployment of GPU and CPU resources [6] Chip Development - The Maia 200 accelerator shows significant performance improvements, enhancing Microsoft's competitive edge in AI workloads [6] - Continuous innovation in chip design and system optimization is crucial for maintaining cost advantages [7] Client Transformation - Clients adopting Microsoft’s AI technology stack are experiencing transformative benefits, with potential for increased spending as they become "frontier firms" [8] - The deployment of agents is changing how companies coordinate work, leading to greater impact [8] Cloud Migration Trends - Ongoing cloud migration is evident, with services like SQL Server on Azure showing growth [9] - The need for a balanced approach between commercial cloud and AI cloud is emphasized as clients migrate workloads [9]

【环球网财经综合报道】日前，全球最大主权财富基金——挪威政府全球养老基金公布数据，2025年投资收益 达到2.36万亿挪威克朗，约合2465亿美元；年投资回报率为15.1%。其中，股票投资表现尤为突出，回报率达 19.3%，大型科技股是该基金业绩的核心驱动力，其前五大持仓包括英伟达、苹果、微软、Alphabet和亚马逊。 半岛电视台对此发文称，该基金投资的一半以上在美国，其中大部分在股票和债券中，最大的10项投资占股票 投资组合的20%。基金CEO尼科莱·延森分析称："特别是在原材料行业，我们看到了强劲的表现。你们看到了 金属，如黄金、白银、铜等价格的上涨，这对业绩有很大帮助。金融行业也表现强劲，而房地产行业则表现最 差。" 报道也提到，到2025年下半年，挪威主权基金已将其在美国最大科技公司的股份降低，包括对芯片巨头英特尔 的投资份额从6月到年底从1.32%降至1.26%，对微软的投资份额从1.35%降至1.26% 该基金还预计，如果全球经济因地缘政治环境恶化，其投资组合可能会总体下降37%，这将超过人工智能场景 35%的预期影响。 ...

: US stocks ended Thursday’s session mixed as investors digested disappointing earnings from Microsoft alongside the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, while weakness across software stocks weighed heavily on tech-heavy indexes.US stock market today: S&P 500 dips, Nasdaq slides while Dow Jones posts modest gainsThe S&P 500 slipped 0.13% to close at 6,969.01, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.72% to 23,685.12, the Dow Jones Industrial Average bucked the trend, rising 55.96 points, or 0.11%, to f ...

【导读】黄金、白银史诗级巨震，黄金单日狂震500美元，盘中大跳水，收盘大逆转；原油价格走高 美东时间1月29日（周四），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，科技股下挫拖累纳指走低，微软财报引得市 场重新审视与人工智能相关的巨额支出。贵金属价格大幅波动，布伦特原油期货自去年7月份以来首次 收于每桶70美元上方。 美股三大股指走势震荡 指数方面，道指跌55.96点，跌幅为0.11%，报49071.56点；纳指跌172.33点，跌幅为0.72%，报23685.12 点；标普500指数跌9.02点，跌幅为0.13%，报6969.01点。 美联储在最新利率决议中宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间3.50%～3.75%不变，中止此前连续三次降 息。声明上调对经济活动评估，称其"稳健"扩张，指出失业率有企稳迹象，但通胀"略显偏高"。 市场随即下调降息预期：投资者将4月再次降息的概率降至26%，并认为6月是下一次可能的窗口。 富国银行投资研究所全球股票及实物资产主管Sameer Samana表示："美联储声明符合预期，市场常因意 外波动。期待盈利和经济数据推动下一波上涨，不过对2026年中期选举相关波动也不会意外。" 特朗普表示，他将在下周 ...

大家早上好！这里是今天的早报，每天早上，我都会在这里跟你聊聊昨夜今晨发生了哪些大事儿。 昨夜今晨 【字节跳动、阿里巴巴将于春节前后推出新的人工智能模型】 中国科技巨头字节跳动与阿里巴巴集团正准备在即将到来的农历新年期间推出新一代人工智能模型，这一举动 标志着双方在争夺中国AI领先地位及未来云市场主导权的战役中进入白热化阶段。 据知情人士向媒体透露，字节跳动计划于下月发布三款新模型，涵盖大语言模型、图像生成及视频生成领域， 旨在利用其快速增长的云服务业务挑战阿里巴巴的市场地位。这一发布时间点选在2月中旬的春节假期，意在 利用假期这一关键的用户流量窗口。 阿里巴巴亦不甘示弱，据知情人士向媒体称，其将在同一时期推出旗舰模型Qwen 3.5，该模型据称具备强大的 数学和编码能力。此外，阿里计划对其面向消费者的Qwen AI应用进行大规模假日营销推广，意图正面挑战目 前用户量最大的豆包聊天机器人。此次交锋正值DeepSeek等竞争对手也计划发布新模型的时刻，凸显了中国 科技企业争夺用户注意力和构建AI超级应用的紧迫性。 这场竞争不仅关乎谁能打造出中国最受欢迎的AI消费级应用，更将决定未来数年的中国AI云市场的格局归 属 ...

Market Overview - Major indexes closed off session lows, with the Dow up +55 points (+0.11%) and the S&P 500 down -0.13%. The Nasdaq fell -172 points (-0.72%) before recovering somewhat [1] Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft experienced a significant sell-off due to higher-than-anticipated AI spending and OpenAI exposure, resulting in a market cap loss of -$430 billion in one day. Despite beating earnings expectations for fiscal Q2, the outlook on AI spending appears riskier [2][8] Meta Platforms (META) - In contrast to Microsoft, Meta Platforms saw a +10.4% increase in stock price, benefiting from its AI investments in advertising and marketing, which are yielding gains in the social media space [3] Apple (AAPL) - Apple outperformed expectations in its fiscal Q3 report, with earnings of $2.84 per share surpassing the $2.65 consensus. Revenues reached $143.76 billion, exceeding expectations and showing a +16% year-over-year increase. iPhone sales rose +23% year-over-year to $85.27 billion, driven by a +38% surge in China sales [4][5] Visa (V) - Visa reported earnings of $3.17 per share, beating estimates by three cents, with revenues of $10.9 billion, a +15% increase from the previous year. However, concerns about future growth arise from proposed caps on credit card rates [6] SanDisk (SNDK) - SanDisk posted a remarkable earnings beat of $6.20 per share compared to the anticipated $3.54, with revenues of $3.03 billion. The company provided optimistic next-quarter earnings guidance of $12-14 per share, significantly higher than the Zacks consensus of $5.36. SanDisk's Data Center business saw a +64% growth quarter over quarter [7]

Core Viewpoint - Microsoft shares have fallen over 11% due to concerns about capital expenditure (capex) plans, despite exceeding second-quarter earnings estimates [1][36] Group 1: Capital Expenditure and Investor Sentiment - Microsoft’s capex for Q2 reached nearly $38 billion, exceeding street expectations, which has spooked investors [58] - The company is facing capacity constraints and has indicated that Azure revenue could have been significantly higher without these constraints [5][12] - In contrast, Meta's capex plans were initially met with skepticism but have since been positively received following strong quarterly results [2][3] Group 2: Azure Performance and Growth Metrics - Azure's revenue grew by 38% in constant currency, adding approximately $9 billion in annual recurring revenue (ARR) sequentially, which was a broad-based beat across the portfolio [6][58] - Microsoft has 15 million subscriptions for its M365 co-pilot, which is a relatively small number compared to its overall user base [38][60] - Microsoft Fabric has reached $2 billion in ARR, reflecting a 60% increase since its launch less than two years ago, indicating strong growth potential [15] Group 3: AI Demand and Strategic Positioning - There is unprecedented demand for AI, driven by both model providers and enterprise adoption, which Microsoft is strategically positioned to capitalize on [13][20] - OpenAI contributes significantly to Microsoft’s commercial backlog, representing 45% of the remaining performance obligations (RPO), which is seen as a strength rather than a liability [18][19] - Microsoft’s products are designed to be model-agnostic, allowing flexibility in utilizing various AI technologies, which mitigates dependency on any single provider [20] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The market is currently skeptical about the ability of software companies to navigate the evolving landscape of AI and LLMs, leading to pressure on companies like Salesforce and Microsoft [21][25] - Accelerating growth and demonstrating proof points around AI adoption are critical for companies to regain investor confidence [29][30] - The current market pullback is viewed as a potential buying opportunity for quality names like Microsoft, as long-term growth prospects remain strong [27][33]

Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025 [2] - The Fed's statement revealed internal divisions, with some members advocating for continued rate cuts, while the overall economic indicators suggest a steady expansion [2][3] - The current economic situation indicates a slowdown in growth, but the demand for rate cuts is not urgent, allowing the Fed to adopt a wait-and-see approach [2] SoftBank and OpenAI - SoftBank is negotiating to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI, which would significantly increase its stake in the company [4] - This potential investment is part of OpenAI's goal to raise up to $100 billion, potentially valuing the company at $830 billion [4] - SoftBank's aggressive investment strategy in AI, despite risks to its credit rating, reflects a strong commitment to becoming a leader in the AI sector [4][5] Tencent and Alibaba - Tencent Cloud and Alibaba Cloud have launched Clawdbot, a cloud-based AI assistant, which allows users to automate repetitive tasks easily [6] - Clawdbot, now renamed Moltbot due to trademark issues, has gained attention for its user-friendly deployment and ability to handle various tasks [6][7] - The introduction of Moltbot highlights the growing competition in the AI application space, as companies seek to capture user engagement [7] Alibaba's AI Chip - Alibaba has officially announced its self-developed AI chip, "Zhenwu 810E," which features advanced specifications and aims to enhance its AI capabilities [8] - The chip's development is part of Alibaba's broader strategy to integrate AI models, cloud services, and chip technology, enhancing its competitive edge [8][9] - The emergence of domestic chip design companies like Alibaba and Baidu is crucial for reducing reliance on foreign technology and fostering the growth of China's AI industry [9] Samsung's Financial Performance - Samsung Electronics reported a record profit in Q4 2025, with a 209.2% year-on-year increase in operating profit, driven by its semiconductor division [10] - The demand for high-performance memory chips, particularly HBM, has surged due to the AI boom, contributing to Samsung's strong financial results [10][11] - Despite challenges in its consumer electronics division, Samsung's semiconductor business remains a key growth driver [11] Meta's Revenue Growth - Meta's Q4 2025 revenue grew by 24% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations, largely due to AI-driven improvements in its advertising business [12] - The company plans to increase capital expenditures significantly to support its AI initiatives, indicating a strong focus on technology development [12][13] - Meta's advertising revenue is expected to benefit from new AI models and the commercialization of its platforms, although the sustainability of these gains remains to be seen [13] Microsoft's Financial Results - Microsoft reported a 17% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, with significant growth in its cloud services, although the growth rate has started to slow [14] - The company is heavily investing in AI, integrating these capabilities into its products, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [14][15] - However, the effectiveness of these investments in enhancing productivity and sustaining revenue growth is a key concern for the market [15]

Group 1 - OpenAI is working towards an IPO in the fourth quarter and has engaged with Wall Street banks for informal discussions regarding the IPO [2] - Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are in talks to invest up to $60 billion in OpenAI as part of a new funding round, which is part of a total financing round of up to $100 billion [2] - Ant Group has acquired a stake in AI model technology developer Xihu Xincheng, which focuses on AI service innovation and application [2] Group 2 - Mogu IoT's Lingzhi AI model has completed the National Cyberspace Administration's filing, becoming a benchmark AI product in the industrial public utility energy sector [2]