Company Dynamics - The company has recently launched several new products, such as the PUCKY "Knock Knock" series, which has gained significant popularity. Other successful series include the "Full Family Power" and "Star People" plush keychains. This performance highlights the company's strong product development and innovation capabilities, supported by a mature R&D mechanism and direct customer engagement system [1][2]. Product Innovation - The PUCKY "Knock Knock" series features electronic sound components that produce a wooden fish sound effect when tapped, aligning with consumer preferences for tangible experiences and emotional value. This innovation caters to younger audiences and is well-suited for short video platforms. PUCKY, an early IP signed by the company in 2017, has undergone significant design innovations, demonstrating the company's ability to revitalize established IPs [1][2]. Material and Gameplay Innovation - The company has focused on material upgrades and gameplay innovations, enhancing product uniqueness and playability. This strategy has allowed for the expansion of target demographics and usage scenarios, effectively attracting new customers and promoting repeat purchases. The recent success of popular products indicates that product innovation is driving growth, providing a replicable and certain path for the company's performance [2]. Innovation Capability and Platform Development - The company has established a comprehensive product R&D innovation system, with deep upstream involvement in process and material development and direct engagement with end-user demands. The matrix organizational structure enhances product innovation capabilities. The current market's focus on single IP sales fluctuations may overlook the company's platform attributes and matrix layout, which contribute to growth certainty. The company's sustained innovation capabilities reinforce its platform advantages and leading market position [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 13.7 billion and 17.7 billion respectively, with a new forecast of 21 billion for 2027. The current stock price corresponds to adjusted P/E ratios of 19, 15, and 12 for 2025, 2026, and 2027. Recent share buybacks and a valuation shift to 2026 support a "outperform" rating and a target price of 370 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 68% from current levels [2].

Group 1 - After four consecutive months of decline, Pop Mart experienced a strong rebound, with its stock price rising nearly 23% from January 19 to 23, bringing its total market value back to HKD 294.6 billion [1] - The stock price of Pop Mart reached a historical high of HKD 339.8 per share at the end of August 2025, with a total market value exceeding HKD 400 billion, but subsequently fell nearly 30% in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to concerns over the decline in IP popularity [3] - Institutional funds significantly reduced their holdings in Pop Mart in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the number of shares held by public funds decreasing from 43.82 million at the end of the third quarter to 34.25 million at the end of the fourth quarter, a reduction of 9.57 million shares [4] Group 2 - Despite the reduction in institutional holdings, some funds increased their positions in Pop Mart during the fourth quarter of 2025, such as Ruiyuan Fund and Invesco Great Wall, which added 2.45 million and over 230,000 shares respectively [4] - The founder of Pop Mart, Wang Ning, emphasized that the company is an IP company, and the blind box concept is merely an enhancement, with the core value lying in aesthetics and emotional connection rather than practicality [6] - Investment institutions remain optimistic about the new consumption sector, with expectations that companies like Pop Mart will evolve into IP ecosystem operators, focusing on diversified IP development and expansion into overseas markets by 2026 [8] Group 3 - The Hong Kong stock market is currently at a historically low valuation, providing a safety margin for both non-essential and essential consumer sectors, which are expected to attract investment as economic recovery continues [9] - The sentiment in the market is cautious, with a longer observation period required for transformation companies, which has affected the valuation recovery process [8] - The overall outlook for the new consumption sector is positive, with potential for long-term value release over the next two years as the macroeconomic environment stabilizes [8][9]

Core Insights - The new PUCKY "Knock Knock" series from Pop Mart has gained significant popularity among young consumers, driven by its interactive features and emotional appeal [1][3][6] Product Launch and Consumer Engagement - The "Knock Knock" series features plush keychains priced at 99 yuan each, equipped with electronic components that produce sounds when tapped, promoting emotional relief [3][6] - The product has gone viral on social media, with discussions on platforms like Xiaohongshu exceeding one million views, and consumers affectionately referring to it as "electronic wooden fish" [3][6] - The interactive nature of the product has attracted a diverse consumer base, including older generations, indicating its broad appeal [6][7] Market Performance and Pricing Trends - The initial market price for the hidden variant "Success +1" surged from 99 yuan to 396 yuan, reflecting high demand, although prices have slightly adjusted since then [6][8] - Pop Mart is actively replenishing stock in response to high consumer interest, with reports of increased foot traffic in stores [6][8] Brand and IP Strategy - Pop Mart's ability to create successful products is evident in its diverse IP portfolio, including the established PUCKY and the rapidly rising "Star People" [7][8] - The company has demonstrated resilience in maintaining the popularity of its IPs, with ongoing product innovation and consumer engagement strategies [7][8] Financial Implications - Despite a recent stock price drop of nearly 50% amid strong revenue growth, Pop Mart has initiated share buybacks totaling approximately 3.5 billion HKD to counteract market volatility [8] - The company's strong IP management and ability to resonate with consumer emotions are seen as key competitive advantages in the market [8]

Group 1 - The core product launched by Pop Mart in January is the "PUCKY Knock Knock Series" plush blind box, which features an electronic sound device that triggers sound effects when the head is tapped, aimed at emotional stress relief [6] - The blind box includes 6 regular characters and 1 hidden character, priced at 99 yuan per box and 594 yuan for a full set of 6. The product quickly sold out on the official website, with resale prices skyrocketing [6] - The hidden character "Success" saw its market price rise from 99 yuan to 396 yuan, a 300% increase, while the most popular regular character "Wisdom" increased from 99 yuan to 209 yuan, a 100% increase [6] Group 2 - Following the product's success, Pop Mart's stock price surged over 6% on January 22, closing at 206 HKD per share, with a market capitalization of 276.4 billion HKD [9] - On January 21, Pop Mart announced a share buyback of 500,000 shares for a total of 96.49 million HKD, marking the second buyback within the week, with a cumulative buyback amount nearing 350 million HKD [9] - Morgan Stanley projects that Pop Mart's net profit will reach 12.6 billion RMB by 2025, supported by a net cash flow of 20 billion RMB at the end of last year, indicating strong performance potential for 2025 and Q1 2026 [9]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's recent stock buyback action has not swayed short sellers' confidence, despite a significant rebound in stock price, indicating a growing risk for these positions [1] Group 1: Short Positions - As of January 22, short positions in Pop Mart accounted for approximately 8% of free-floating shares, up from 6% the previous week, marking the highest level since July 2023 [1] - The number of short positions reached about 60 million shares, an increase from 44 million shares a week prior [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - While Pop Mart attempts to restore investor confidence through strong stock buyback measures, many traders remain skeptical about its long-term growth prospects [1] - The market landscape shows a divide, with bulls emphasizing new product launches and attractive valuation levels, while bears focus on signs of cooling demand in key overseas markets [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Bernstein's analyst Melinda Hu noted that the U.S. market continues to generate significant short positions, with local sales trends slowing down in January [1] - The recent stock price rebound is suspected to not be driven by fundamental factors, leading to speculation that short sellers may take the opportunity to increase their positions [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, indicating potential for higher customer traffic [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up member spending, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to collect all items increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established relationships with mature toy artists, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company's direct sales channels enhance its ability to control user data and market feedback, improving operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising influence of China's cultural output on its growth trajectory [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 369.57 billion RMB, 551.72 billion RMB, and 678.11 billion RMB for the years 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 123.76 billion RMB, 173.73 billion RMB, and 226.85 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 295.98%, 40.37%, and 30.58% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The demand for trendy toys is not a false need; entertainment is a necessity. The "Kidult" trend, driven by demographic changes, media evolution, and consumer psychology, is a long-term trend in the toy industry, exemplified by the increasing market share of companies targeting adult consumers [1][14] - The global entertainment and media industry is projected to reach approximately $3 trillion by 2024, indicating a growing market for diversified entertainment offerings [1][35] Supply-Side Growth Potential - Store Expansion: The company has significant room for growth in retail locations, with a projected increase in global retail stores from 571 in 2025, with a substantial portion located in China [2][58] - Increased Store Traffic: Domestic single-store membership is expected to rise from 145,000 to nearly 200,000, with the opening of the first U.S. store in September 2023 [2] - Higher Member Spending: The maturity of IPs is expected to drive up the average spending per member, as seen with the SKULLPANDA IP, where the cost to purchase all products increased significantly from 5,922 RMB in 2021 to 47,430 RMB in 2025 [2] Demand-Side Competitive Barriers - Artist Talent Barrier: The company has established partnerships with mature toy artists in Hong Kong, creating a long-term competitive advantage [3] - Marketing Resource Barrier: The company's business model relies on top-tier brand collaborations and celebrity endorsements, which are core competitive barriers [3] - User Data Asset Barrier: The company has strong control over user data and market feedback due to its direct sales channels, enhancing operational efficiency [3] Valuation Safety Margin - The company's valuation is expected to be significantly above 10X PE, given its growth stage and the rising cultural influence of China on the global stage [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 36.96 billion, 55.10 billion, and 67.74 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 12.38 billion, 17.35 billion, and 22.66 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 295.98%, 40.21%, and 30.59% respectively [4][7] - The target price is set at 359.72 HKD, based on a 25X PE for 2026 [4]

Summary of the Conference Call for Pop Mart Company Overview - **Company**: Pop Mart - **Industry**: Toy and Collectibles Key Points and Arguments Stock Buyback and Market Confidence - Pop Mart initiated its first stock buyback since January 2024, indicating confidence in its operations and countering negative impacts from short-selling activities. The first buyback involved 1.4 million shares at a cost of HKD 250 million, and the second involved 500,000 shares at HKD 96.49 million [2][3] Market Sentiment and Short-Selling Reports - Bernstein's short-selling report claims that the U.S. market will weaken and all IPs are deteriorating. However, this argument is based on secondary market prices and search indices, which do not accurately reflect actual sales and consumer loyalty. The report also presents contradictory expectations for the Chinese and U.S. markets [2][4][5] Domestic Market Performance - The domestic channel and IP structure are superior to international counterparts, with healthy foot traffic in offline stores. Q4 store efficiency grew nearly 40% year-over-year. Successful IP operations include "Starry People," while "Labubu" relies more on chance factors [2][6] New Product Launches and Innovation - Recent product launches, such as the "Year of the Horse" plush toys and the "Biqi Knock Knock" series, have performed well. The company is exploring diverse operational strategies, showcasing its ability to innovate and adapt to market demands [2][7] Future Growth Prospects - The outlook for Pop Mart is optimistic, with strong growth in domestic channels and a successful introduction of new products. The company is diversifying its IP value, laying a solid foundation for future growth. The U.S. market, while still developing, shows initial positive results [2][8] IP Management Strategy - Pop Mart focuses on consumer feedback and membership data for product modifications in single IP operations. Examples include the third and fourth generation of "Labubu" products, demonstrating the company's capability in IP and product innovation [2][9] Second-Hand Market Dynamics - The second-hand market's price fluctuations are attributed to supply-demand adjustments. Despite a previous surge in prices, the current supply is sufficient, leading to a natural price decline. The second-hand transaction volume accounts for only 10%-15% of total releases, indicating that most inventory is absorbed by genuine demand [2][10] Importance of the Chinese Market - The Chinese market is expected to contribute 50%-60% of sales in 2026, supported by a healthy IP structure and a robust membership system. This market is crucial for the company's growth [2][11] U.S. Market Potential - Although the U.S. market accounted for less than 20% of sales in 2025, it remains significant. The company is implementing various measures to enhance market health, including introducing new IPs and expanding store numbers [2][12] Expansion in Other Regions - Pop Mart is also focusing on markets like Canada, the Middle East, and South America, with notable performance in Canada and stable results in Southeast Asia, Japan, and South Korea since 2024 [2][13] Future Product Categories - The company plans to expand into new categories such as building blocks, jewelry, and movable dolls (BJD) to further scale its business. These emerging categories are gaining consumer interest and are expected to become future growth drivers [2][14][15] Overall Confidence in Future Development - Considering the solid domestic foundation, ongoing international expansion, and healthy IP structure, Pop Mart is viewed as a long-term growth potential with a favorable investment profile [2][16] North American Market Adjustments - In North America, Pop Mart has made adjustments to its channel and product supply due to supply chain issues. The company is narrowing online supply while increasing offline availability to address consumer demand fluctuations [2][17] Performance of Specific IPs - The "Biqi" IP has not received significant resource allocation but is still being explored. The company responds quickly to successful trends to maximize exposure and effectiveness [2][18][19] Global Business Development - Pop Mart is expanding globally, with new stores in regions like the Philippines and Dubai. The company is also exploring opportunities in other Middle Eastern countries [2][20] Sales Growth Projections - For 2026, domestic market growth is projected at 20%-30%, while overseas growth is expected at 50%-60%. The overall target is a 30% growth rate, with specific IPs like "Labubu" and "Starry People" anticipated to achieve significant sales milestones [2][20]

Core Insights - The product "PUCKY Knock Knock Series Electronic Wooden Fish" has generated significant consumer interest and social media buzz within a week of its launch, becoming a phenomenon similar to the Labubu IP [1] - The product combines traditional cultural elements with modern entertainment, catering to the emotional needs of young consumers in a high-pressure society [7] Market Performance - The hidden variant "Success" has seen its market price surge from the original price of 99 yuan to 396 yuan, representing a 300% premium; the regular variant "Wisdom" increased from 99 yuan to 209 yuan, a 100% premium [7] - The pricing strategy of 99 yuan per box and 594 yuan per set is perceived by fans as an entry ticket to emotional relief and psychological comfort rather than a financial burden [7] Industry Trends - The success of the electronic wooden fish reflects the rapid expansion of the "emotional economy," which is projected to exceed 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and surpass 4.5 trillion yuan by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of over 15% [10] - The emotional economy focuses on fulfilling consumer emotional needs, differing from traditional consumption by emphasizing emotional experiences and psychological comfort rather than functional value [10] - Generation Z consumers prioritize "emotional price-performance ratio" over "cost-performance ratio," showing a willingness to pay a premium for emotional resonance, cultural identity, and self-expression [10]

Core Viewpoint - The 20th anniversary exhibition of the popular toy brand "Molly," created by designer Wang Xinming, is being held in Hong Kong, showcasing its development over the past two decades and celebrating its cultural impact through various city landmarks [2]. Group 1 - The exhibition theme is "A Star That Remains Unchanged," reflecting on the journey of "Molly" since its creation in 2006 [2]. - The exhibition is a collaboration between Pop Mart and the Hong Kong Tourism Board, aiming to enhance the city's cultural tourism through the "Molly" brand [2]. - The Hong Kong exhibition is the first global showcase for "Molly's" 20th anniversary, officially opening on January 24 [2]. Group 2 - The exhibition features a giant "Molly" art installation located in the West Kowloon Cultural District [2]. - Additional installations are set up at iconic locations such as Victoria Peak and the Sky Terrace [5]. - The exhibition includes displays of Wang Xinming's original sketches and recreations of his studio environment [13][15].