Core Insights - Ctrip Group reported Q2 2025 revenue of 14.83 billion yuan, a 16.2% increase, and a NON-GAAP net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, a 0.5% increase, with overall revenue meeting guidance and performance slightly exceeding expectations [1][3] - The company experienced steady release of domestic travel demand since Q2 2025, with inbound and international business continuing to show high growth trends, supported by optimized domestic marketing expenses and effective personnel cost control [1][2] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from various segments includes accommodation bookings at 6.23 billion yuan (+21.2%), transportation tickets at 5.40 billion yuan (+10.8%), travel vacation at 1.08 billion yuan (+5.3%), business travel management at 690 million yuan (+9.3%), and other businesses at 1.47 billion yuan (+31.0%) [1] Profitability Analysis - The overall gross margin for the period was 81.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, primarily due to the increasing proportion of lower-margin international business [2] - The adjusted operating profit margin (OPM) was 31.5%, down 1.7 percentage points, with the NON-GAAP net profit margin at 33.8%, down 5.3 percentage points [2] Growth Drivers - The outbound, overseas, and inbound businesses showed rapid growth, with outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of pre-pandemic levels from 2019, and international OTA platform bookings increasing over 60% year-on-year, while inbound tourism bookings more than doubled [2] - A new share repurchase plan was approved, with an expected total repurchase scale of up to 5 billion USD, alongside dividends, aiming to provide continuous investment returns to shareholders [2] Investment Outlook - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating, anticipating sustained growth in performance driven by the maturation of international market operations and improved profitability of trip.com [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with hotel business growth surpassing expectations and market share continuing to increase. The competitive environment in mainland China is favorable for the company, and the trend of improving marketing investment efficiency is expected to continue. Although competition in some overseas markets has intensified, the impact on overall company profits is manageable. The target price has been raised based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio, maintaining a buy rating [1]. Group 1 - Q2 revenue reached 14.9 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above market expectations [2]. - The growth breakdown includes accommodation up 21%, transportation up 11%, vacation up 5%, and business travel up 9% [2]. - The number of hotel room nights in mainland China increased by over 15% year-on-year, exceeding the expected growth of over 10% [2]. Group 2 - Adjusted net profit was 5 billion RMB, remaining stable year-on-year and exceeding market expectations by 19% [2]. - The net profit margin was 34%, a decline of approximately 5 percentage points due to ongoing investments in overseas markets [2]. - For Q3, revenue is expected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with hotel revenue increasing by 18%, driven primarily by the growth in room nights [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q2 performance with significant revenue and profit growth, driven by robust demand in accommodation and transportation sectors, alongside effective cost management strategies [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved net revenue of 14.843 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.2% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.846 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-on-year - Non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.011 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year [1]. Business Segment Analysis - Accommodation revenue was 6.225 billion yuan, growing 21.2% year-on-year and 12.3% quarter-on-quarter - Transportation revenue stood at 5.397 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.8% and stable quarter-on-quarter performance - Vacation revenue reached 1.079 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year and 13.9% quarter-on-quarter - Business travel revenue was 0.692 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 9.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [1]. Cost Management - The gross margin was 81.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year - Non-GAAP sales expense ratio was 22.1%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year - R&D expense ratio was 21.8%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year - Management expense ratio was 5.7%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year - Lower-than-expected sales expense investment contributed to better-than-expected profit performance [1]. Market Recovery and Growth - The recovery of outbound tourism is faster than the industry average, with Q2 hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of 2019 levels, compared to the industry’s 84% - The company’s international OTA platform bookings grew over 60% year-on-year in Q2 - Inbound tourism saw over 100% year-on-year growth, with the company expanding its inbound group tour offerings across 22 countries and 23 sites [2]. Share Buyback Initiatives - The company has repurchased 400 million USD since February and has approved a new share buyback plan to repurchase up to 5 billion USD worth of stock [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve adjusted net profits of 18.144 billion yuan, 20.954 billion yuan, and 24.048 billion yuan for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a Non-GAAP PE valuation of 19, 17, and 15 times for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [2].

Core Insights - Trip.com Group (携程) reported strong financial results for the first half of 2025, with total revenue of 28.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21%, and a net profit of 9.194 billion yuan, up 17% [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's daily net earnings have surged to 50.54 million yuan, which is 2.8 times higher than the pre-pandemic average of 17.8 million yuan in 2019 [1][7] - Operating profit for the first half of 2025 reached 7.665 billion yuan, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth [1] - The second quarter net income was 14.8 billion yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year and a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter [5] Group 2: International Business Growth - International business has been a significant growth driver, with inbound travel bookings more than doubling year-on-year, particularly from South Korea and Southeast Asia [3][4] - The international brand Trip.com saw total bookings increase by over 60%, with inbound travel bookings growing over 100% [3] - Trip.com has established a global hotel coverage of 1.2 million properties across more than 200 countries and regions [3] Group 3: Domestic Market Performance - Domestic travel saw 3.285 billion trips in the first half of 2025, a 20.6% increase year-on-year, with total spending reaching 3.15 trillion yuan, up 15.2% [5] - The average price of travel services has decreased, but the overall resilience of domestic travel remains strong [5][6] - The company is focusing on enhancing service capabilities and expanding inbound tourism [6] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Compared to global OTA giants like Booking Holdings and Expedia, Trip.com has outpaced them in revenue and profit growth [4] - Booking's revenue for the first half of 2025 was approximately 82.45 billion yuan, while Expedia's was about 48.32 billion yuan, both showing negative growth rates [4] - Trip.com’s gross merchandise volume (GMV) market share in the hotel and travel market is estimated at 56%, significantly higher than its competitors [8] Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - The company is transitioning from high growth to high-quality development, focusing on inbound tourism expansion and service enhancement [6] - Trip.com has opened its first inbound tourism service center at Beijing Capital International Airport, providing multilingual assistance and exclusive booking services [6] - The company is leveraging AI technology to improve user experience, including a new AI-driven itinerary planner [6][7] Group 6: Industry Challenges - Despite Trip.com's success, many of its platform partners, including airlines and hotels, are facing significant financial difficulties, with major airlines reporting substantial losses [7] - The hotel industry has seen a decline in average revenue per available room (RevPAR) and a significant number of hotel closures [7] - Airlines are attempting to counteract OTA pressures by promoting direct sales through their own platforms [8]

Group 1 - The performance of popular Chinese concept stocks is mixed, with NetEase rising over 2%, while XPeng Motors and Alibaba both falling over 2% [1] - Li Auto's Q2 net profit increased nearly 70% quarter-on-quarter, but its Q3 guidance is weaker than expected, with a projected vehicle delivery drop of 37.8% to 41.1% year-on-year [2][4] - Trip.com Group reported a Q2 net income of RMB 14.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.22%, with a net profit of RMB 4.846 billion, up 26.43% year-on-year [3][4] Group 2 - Li Auto's total revenue decreased by 4.5% year-on-year, with net profit remaining stable year-on-year but showing a significant quarter-on-quarter growth of 69.6% [4] - The company expects Q3 total revenue to decline sharply by 38.8% to 42.1% year-on-year, estimating between RMB 24.8 billion to RMB 26.2 billion [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating to the company, indicating a favorable outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [3]. Core Insights - The company is projected to experience significant revenue growth, with total revenue expected to increase from 53.29 billion to 79.93 billion over the next four years, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.47% [8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 17.07 billion to 23.34 billion, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]. - The report highlights a stable gross margin, expected to remain around 81% to 82.5%, which suggests effective cost management and pricing power [8]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities is anticipated to grow steadily, reaching 25.39 billion by 2027, which supports its financial health and ability to reinvest in growth [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for various segments indicate robust growth, with accommodation bookings expected to grow from 5.59 billion in Q3 2023 to 8.30 billion by Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 22% [6]. - The total operating income is projected to increase from 13.75 billion in 2024 to 18.57 billion by 2027, with a consistent year-over-year growth rate [6]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to rise from 20.08 billion to 28.32 billion over the same period, reflecting operational efficiency [8]. Key Financial Ratios - The report outlines key financial ratios, including a projected return on equity (ROE) of 11.48% by 2027, indicating effective use of equity capital [8]. - The debt-to-equity ratio is expected to improve, with a net debt ratio projected to decrease significantly, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 26.10 to 32.71, reflecting the company's profitability growth [8].

Core Insights - The 2025 summer travel season has shown strong growth in demand for travel services, with significant increases in order volume and traveler numbers, indicating a prosperous market for online travel service providers (OTAs) [2][3] - The travel market is undergoing a transformation driven by factors such as market maturity, changing consumer habits due to declining birth rates, and a shift towards leisure travel [2] Group 1: Market Performance - Alibaba's travel platform, Fliggy, reported a strong demand for travel during the summer, with a 9.9% year-on-year increase in average order value [3] - Ctrip's report highlighted that nearly half of domestic travelers opted for long-distance trips, reflecting a more rational consumption structure [3] - Popular cooling destinations like Guizhou and Yunnan saw order increases of over 80%, while lesser-known spots like Chifeng and Dandong experienced a 200% rise in orders [3] Group 2: Regional Highlights - Xinjiang's tourism orders increased by over 20% during the summer, with a notable 68% rise in interest due to the popularity of the TV series "A Mortal's Journey to Immortality" [4] - Shanxi's tourism saw a 43% increase in ticket sales, with a 40% rise in overall orders, making it one of the top three cities for growth during the summer [5] Group 3: Consumer Trends - The student demographic remains active in travel, with a 15.1% increase in average order value, indicating a preference for higher-quality travel experiences [5] - The trend of "sports + cultural tourism" was exemplified by the 2025 Curry Brand Asia Tour in Chongqing, which saw a sixfold increase in visitors [5] Group 4: Airline Industry Insights - The civil aviation sector is experiencing record passenger volumes, with an estimated 150 million travelers expected during the summer, marking a historical high [6] - Despite the increase in passenger numbers, average ticket prices for domestic flights have decreased, with a 7.5% drop in July compared to the previous year [7][8] Group 5: Hotel Industry Trends - Hotel bookings show a significant increase in demand for mid to high-star hotels, with consumers willing to pay more for better accommodations [9] - The trend indicates a shift towards higher-quality lodging experiences, particularly among families traveling during the summer [9]

Core Insights - The 2025 summer travel season has shown strong growth in demand for travel services, with online travel agencies (OTAs) reporting increased order volumes and diverse consumer preferences [1][2] - The travel industry is entering a transformative phase driven by market maturity, changing consumer habits, and demographic trends such as declining birth rates [1][8] Group 1: Market Performance - Alibaba's travel platform, Fliggy, reported a 9.9% year-on-year increase in average order value, indicating a shift towards quality travel experiences [2] - Ctrip's report highlighted that nearly half of domestic travelers opted for long-distance trips during the summer, reflecting a more rational consumption structure [2] - The average temperature in July reached record highs, leading to a surge in demand for cool vacation spots, with orders for popular destinations like Guizhou and Yunnan increasing by over 80% [2] Group 2: Regional Trends - Xinjiang's tourism orders grew over 20% during the summer, with significant interest from southern regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai [3] - The popularity of cultural and entertainment experiences has driven a 380% increase in search volume for scenic spots featured in popular media [3] - Outdoor activities such as camping and hiking have seen over 100% growth in search volume, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards nature-based experiences [3] Group 3: Aviation Industry Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to reach a record 150 million passengers during the summer, with domestic flights seeing a 3% increase in passenger volume [6] - Despite increased passenger numbers, average ticket prices for domestic flights have decreased, with a 7.5% drop in July compared to the previous year [7] - The trend of "price for volume" in the aviation industry is evident, as lower ticket prices have made air travel more accessible, particularly for first-time flyers [7][8] Group 4: Hotel and Accommodation Trends - High-star hotels are experiencing significant growth, with increased demand for quality accommodations during family trips [8] - The hotel industry is witnessing a shift towards higher-value offerings, with mid to high-star hotels seeing a faster growth rate compared to budget options [7][8] - The long-term trend suggests that the traditional peak summer travel season may decline due to demographic changes and evolving consumer preferences [8]

2025年8月12日至22日，由文化和旅游部国际交流与合作局主办，沈阳、长春、宁波等13个城市与携程集团联合承办的"心见中国共绘新程——你好！中国 2025亚洲旅行商中国行"活动成功举办。来自日本、韩国、新加坡、马来西亚等十余个国家的超100位亚洲头部旅行商代表，在11天中深入中国多地，开展 文化旅游考察与业务洽谈，达成多项合作意向。 嘉宾通过自己的海外社媒直播采风 本次活动以"体验+合作"为主线，推动海外旅行商从"体验者"转变为"合作者"。不少旅行商通过IInstagram、Facebook等海外社交平台实时分享见闻：韩国 代表晒出宏村晨雾，配文"每帧都是电影"；马来西亚代表笑谈"为一包香菇干学会了中文讲价"。这些真实互动有效传播了中国文旅魅力。部分旅行社现场 提出产品合作计划，如开发黄山鱼灯非遗体验、桂林科考主题游等专项线路，携程集团也借此展示了全链路产品承接与服务能力，为入境游市场注入新动 能。 嘉宾在携程海外版上获取入境游攻略 行程期间，专业且细致的接待服务广受好评。"从签证协助到全程交通接驳，再到多语种向导的细致讲解，每一个环节都让人感受到了中国旅游服务的专 业水准。"韩国代表的赞叹道出了众人的心声 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a net revenue of 14.843 billion yuan in Q2 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 16.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.846 billion yuan, up 26.4% year-over-year [2]. - The company's performance in accommodation and transportation segments exceeded expectations, with accommodation revenue at 6.225 billion yuan (up 21.2% YoY) and transportation revenue at 5.397 billion yuan (up 10.8% YoY) [3]. - The recovery of outbound tourism is faster than the industry average, with hotel and flight bookings surpassing 120% of 2019 levels, and international OTA platform bookings growing over 60% year-over-year [4]. - The company has repurchased 400 million USD worth of shares and approved a new buyback plan for up to 5 billion USD [4]. Financial Performance - The company expects adjusted net profits for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 to be 18.144 billion yuan, 20.954 billion yuan, and 24.048 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slight upward revision from previous estimates [5]. - The projected Non-GAAP P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are 19, 17, and 15 times respectively [5]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 44.51 billion yuan in 2023 to 79.473 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 14.19% [10].