谈沂鑫 东吴证券机械分析师: 各位领导晚上好，我是东吴机械的谭艺馨。今天和各位领导更新一下太空光伏深度，然后 再深度梳理一下各环节的一个推荐标的。最近整个太空光伏板块，它的催化还是非常多的 马斯克在这个达沃斯论坛上，明确了 SpaceX 和特斯拉会在 3 年内分别建设 100 吉瓦的 太空，还有地面的这个光伏产能。然后最近特斯拉和 SpaceX 的团队，也在国内的各大设 设备商进行了技术交流。然后订单，近期是有望加速落地的。然后在今，就在今天，马斯 克这边也是公布了 SpaceX 他会将收购这个 XAI 的这个 AI 公司。 形成它这个太空和 AI 算力的一个联动。所以我们认为，在 6 月 SpaceX 上市前，其实市 场的这个催化会一直不断。然后我们也是持续看好太空光伏设备这个板块的标的这样一个 可持续性。下面我们就汇报下报告，然后最后在报告的后面，我们再跟各位领导深深度的 梳理一下。每一个环节的这个标的。对于光伏设备来说，其实你真正要放量，还是要看太 空算力。因为你平时的这些通信或者传感的卫星，你的用量对于光伏的用量是没有那么大 的。所以我们这个报告也是围绕着太空算率去展开。 太空数据中心其实也很好理解， ...

Core Insights - Tesla's journey has been characterized by extreme challenges and remarkable comebacks, illustrating a narrative of ambition, crisis, and innovation [4][32] - The company has transitioned from a struggling startup to the world's most valuable automaker, showcasing a unique approach to manufacturing and technology [4][28] Group 1: Historical Context and Challenges - In 2017, Tesla faced significant production issues at its Fremont factory, struggling to meet production targets for the Model 3, which led to fears of bankruptcy [9][10] - The company's early days were marked by skepticism from traditional automakers, with Tesla's ambitious goals seen as unrealistic [5][7] - During the 2008 financial crisis, Tesla made pivotal decisions to reject traditional dealership models and integrate advanced technology into its vehicles [8][12] Group 2: Innovations and Manufacturing - Tesla's innovative approach included the use of software to define hardware, allowing for rapid adjustments in vehicle performance [5][7] - The introduction of the Shanghai Gigafactory demonstrated Tesla's ability to achieve high production efficiency through innovative manufacturing processes [14][15] - The company has significantly reduced battery costs and improved vehicle performance through continuous technological advancements [15][17] Group 3: Data and Software Integration - Tesla's extensive data collection from its vehicles has enabled it to enhance its Autopilot system, achieving a lower accident rate compared to human drivers [17][22] - The company has developed a dual business model that combines hardware sales with software subscriptions, generating substantial recurring revenue [20][23] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategic Shifts - Tesla is shifting its focus from traditional automotive manufacturing to becoming a technology platform, with ambitions to dominate the automotive ecosystem [26][30] - The company plans to invest heavily in AI and robotics, indicating a strategic pivot towards integrating advanced technologies into its operations [28][30] - By 2025, Tesla aims to significantly increase its production capacity and expand its product offerings, including autonomous vehicles and AI-driven solutions [28][30]

2月3日晚间，追觅科技创始人兼CEO俞浩在社交平台发文，抛出了一则极具冲击力的预测：20年后，特 斯拉会成为电动汽车领域的iRobot，遭遇接连亏损，最终退出电动汽车市场。 俞浩还幽默地调侃道："当然，小马哥不会承认，他会说是自己主动退出的。"这里的"小马哥"无疑指的 是特斯拉CEO马斯克。 | . | | --- | 不过，俞浩随后在评论区补充说明，他并非看衰马斯克，直言"马斯克还是很强的，也不会倒那么快， 20年还是比较理性的"，试图让这一预测听起来更具合理性和客观性。 值得一提的是，此前俞浩就曾发文表达过对马斯克个人风格的看法。他认为马斯克比较独，带有强烈的 个人英雄主义色彩；而自己则喜欢带着一群人一起攀登高峰，秉持"一个人可以走得更快，一群人可以 走得更远"的理念。此次对特斯拉未来走向的大胆预测，或许也与他这种管理理念和对企业发展模式的 思考有所关联。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 ...

鞭牛士 对此，有网友戏称，"我开深蓝，经常有人问你这个特斯拉看起来怎么不太一样"。 责任编辑：凌辰 鞭牛士 昨日，马斯克的母亲梅耶·马斯克在社交平台发文，分享自己结束上海旅程的心情。 昨日，马斯克的母亲梅耶·马斯克在社交平台发文，分享自己结束上海旅程的心情。 她表示，"再见上海，这趟行程太愉快了。三天里完成了三个模特工作，还庆祝了我的书销量破百万 册，路上看到好多特斯拉。" 同时，她晒出九宫格照片，其中包括四张汽车图。 不过眼尖的网友很快发现，左上方的黑色汽车并非特斯拉车型，而是长安汽车旗下的深蓝品牌。 她表示，"再见上海，这趟行程太愉快了。三天里完成了三个模特工作，还庆祝了我的书销量破百万 册，路上看到好多特斯拉。" 同时，她晒出九宫格照片，其中包括四张汽车图。 不过眼尖的网友很快发现，左上方的黑色汽车并非特斯拉车型，而是长安汽车旗下的深蓝品牌。 对此，有网友戏称，"我开深蓝，经常有人问你这个特斯拉看起来怎么不太一样"。 责任编辑：凌辰 ...

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's merger of SpaceX with his AI venture xAI indicates a significant shift in his corporate strategy, reflecting challenges faced by Tesla and the potential for growth in SpaceX and xAI [1][2]. Tesla Overview - Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.58 trillion, which is 26% higher than SpaceX's private valuation of $1.25 trillion [2]. - Tesla's stock has declined by 6% in 2026, with a reported 16% year-over-year drop in vehicle deliveries and a 3% decline in total revenue for 2025, marking its first annual revenue decline [3][4]. - The company is facing increased competition in the electric vehicle market, particularly from manufacturers in China and Europe, and has been impacted by the removal of federal tax incentives for EV purchases in the U.S. [4]. Strategic Shifts - Musk is redirecting Tesla's focus towards Robotaxi services and Optimus humanoid robots, despite facing significant competition in these areas [5]. - Production of Tesla's Model S and X vehicles is being halted as the company reallocates resources to new priorities, with these models contributing less than 3% to annual deliveries in 2025 [5]. SpaceX Overview - SpaceX is a leading provider of orbital launch services, with contracts worth billions from NASA and the Department of Defense, and operates the Starlink satellite internet service with over 9,000 satellites and approximately 9 million customers [7]. - The merger values SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, with SpaceX reportedly pursuing an IPO this year [8]. Financial Performance - SpaceX generated about $15 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit last year, while Tesla reported nearly $95 billion in sales and adjusted earnings of about $5 billion for 2025, indicating a steep decline from the previous year [17]. - Tesla has committed to investing $2 billion in xAI, which is now considered a SpaceX investment following the merger [18]. Regulatory and Legal Challenges - xAI is under investigation in multiple jurisdictions for issues related to its Grok image generator, which has raised concerns about the creation of explicit deepfake images [13]. - The merger may introduce legal and regulatory risks that could affect SpaceX shareholders, as the intertwined nature of Musk's companies could impact their regulatory standing [12][14].

彭博社注意到，根据中方发布的新安全标准，出于司乘安全考虑，在中国销售的汽车必须配备机械释放 车门外把手，"意味着电动汽车使用的隐藏式门把手被禁"。该规定将于2027年1月1日生效，对于已获得 型式批准的车型，可延期至2029年1月前完成设计变更。 报道还称，中国曾出现事故中人员受困的情况，这是出台新规的重要原因。英国《卫报》介绍说，将车 门把手与车门完全融为一体、这一能稍微减少"风阻"的设计，却往往会在交通事故中，因车辆供电故障 等原因，导致事故人员受困车内无法开门逃生，因此在全球引起了不小的安全争议。 【文/观察者网 柳白】中国日前发布强制性国家标准，对以新能源车为主的汽车门把手做出硬性安全要 求，引发全球关注。 彭博社在2月2日刊发的报道中指出，中国规范电动汽车使用隐藏式门把手，成为世界上首个限制这种设 计的国家，这款由美国电动车巨头特斯拉带火的设计，正因一系列致命事件而面临全球监管机构的审 查。有业内人士直言，"中国正从单纯的全球最大电动汽车市场，转型为汽车新技术监管规则的制定 者"。 他说："中国在部分前沿技术的商业化应用上遥遥领先，在电动化领域一马当先，而且我认为在自动驾 驶技术领域也将进一步领跑。 ...

截至2026年2月3日收盘，光伏ETF(159857)全天获资金申购1.09亿份，换手17.77%，成交4.03亿元，市场交投活跃。跟踪的 中证光伏产业指数(931151)强势上涨5.79%，年初至今涨幅累计已达16.59%，成分股罗博特科上涨20.00%，奥特维上涨 20.00%，晶盛机电上涨17.34%，晶科能源，微导纳米等个股跟涨。 截至2月3日，光伏ETF(159857)近2周规模增长2.56亿元，近2周份额增长1.18亿份，实现显著增长。 资金流入方面，光伏ETF(159857)近10个交易日合计"吸金"1.79亿元。 业内指出，这是马斯克体系内迄今最重要的"太空+人工智能"整合交易，从长远来看天基人工智能是可行的规模化路径，相 关卫星可直接利用近乎恒定的太阳能，运营维护成本较低。 马斯克此前1月22日披露太空光伏重磅布局，SpaceX与特斯拉将三年内联合建设200GW光伏产能，其中100GW专用于太空 场景，并争取在2030年前实现首个100GW太空光伏部署里程碑。太空光伏的长期发展空间已清晰显现，有望成为光伏产业 新的增长蓝海。 2026年1月28日，工信部再次召开光伏行业"反内卷"座谈会，明确 ...

Core Insights - Tesla has achieved large-scale production of dry electrode technology, marking a significant advancement in the commercialization of solid-state batteries [1] - Major players like CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan High-Tech are accelerating their own solid-state and semi-solid battery developments, while European automakers such as Volkswagen and BMW are also actively investing in this technology [1] - The Chinese government has prioritized solid-state battery research in its "14th Five-Year Plan" for energy technology innovation, with local governments providing funds and subsidies to promote industry clustering [1] Industry Developments - Solid-state batteries are expanding beyond the electric vehicle sector into low-altitude economy and robotics, with applications in commercial aerospace growing rapidly [1] - The unique properties of solid-state batteries, such as the absence of liquid electrolytes and resistance to extreme temperatures and radiation, make them highly suitable for aerospace applications [1] - NASA has identified all-solid-state batteries as a key energy direction for future aviation and deep space exploration [1] Market Outlook - 2027 is seen as a critical milestone for the solid-state battery industry, with expectations for a gradual transition from semi-solid to fully solid-state batteries by 2030 [2] - The market for solid-state batteries is projected to reach 614 GWh by 2030, with a forecasted demand exceeding 740 GWh by 2035, representing a thousandfold increase from 2026 [2] - The recent breakthrough in dry electrode technology by Tesla is expected to enhance the valuation of related sectors in the A-share market, particularly in materials, equipment, and integration fields [2]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 财经频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 有投资者在互动平台向鹏翎股份提问："您好，贵公司作为流体总管的龙头企业，市场占有率大概是多 少？与特斯拉有合作吗？" 针对上述提问，鹏翎股份回应称："尊敬的投资者 您好。公司是国内较早从事汽车管路和汽车密封件部 件产品研发和制造的供应商，积累了30多年的行业经验，并与多家整车企业形成了稳固的合作伙伴关 系，积累了庞大的优质客户资源。截至目前，公司尚未进入特斯拉供应链。感谢您的关注！" ...

Core Insights - Elon Musk is reshaping his business landscape by acquiring xAI through SpaceX, aiming to create a highly integrated innovation engine with a valuation soaring to $1.25 trillion [1] - During Tesla's 2025 annual earnings call, Musk indicated that sales volume is no longer the core focus for the company, signaling a significant shift in strategy [1][2] - The automotive industry is facing a challenge to its century-old concept, as companies like Tesla, Xpeng, Li Auto, and BYD are evolving beyond traditional automotive roles [1] Group 1: Tesla's Strategic Shift - Tesla's 2025 revenue declined by 3%, marking the first annual revenue drop in the company's history, with Q4 net profit plummeting by 60% [2] - Musk announced the retirement of Model S and Model X, indicating a departure from Tesla's identity as a car manufacturer [2] - Tesla plans to invest $20 billion in 2026, primarily focusing on AI, autonomous driving, and robotics rather than new vehicle development [2][4] Group 2: Fremont Factory Transformation - The Fremont factory, previously dedicated to Model S and Model X production, is undergoing significant changes, with automotive assembly lines being replaced by Optimus robot production lines [3][7] - Tesla aims to establish a massive production base capable of producing 1 million robots annually, indicating a complete shift in business focus [3][8] - The transition reflects a broader strategy where Tesla leverages its automotive manufacturing experience to enter the robotics market [7][8] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Competition - The automotive market has become a zero-sum game, with consumers now prioritizing cost-effectiveness over novelty in electric vehicles [4] - If Tesla remains focused solely on automotive production, its price-to-earnings ratio could revert to levels comparable to traditional manufacturers like Toyota and GM, around 10 times [5] - The $20 billion investment is seen as a critical move for Tesla to escape the competitive automotive landscape and pivot towards the burgeoning embodied intelligence market [5][6] Group 4: Challenges for Chinese New Energy Vehicle Companies - Chinese new energy vehicle companies like Xpeng and Li Auto are increasingly showcasing their advancements in robotics, reflecting a growing anxiety about competition with Tesla [10][11] - These companies are adopting strategies that allow for independent financing of their robotics initiatives, creating a firewall between their automotive and robotics businesses [13] - The competition is characterized by a struggle between top-down destruction and reconstruction versus bottom-up evolution and defense [12][13] Group 5: The Future of the Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is experiencing a cognitive dissonance, with traditional manufacturers still focused on horsepower and luxury features, while advanced companies view these as basic functionalities [15] - Musk's perspective that cars are essentially robots on wheels suggests that the automotive sector is merely a stepping stone towards achieving general artificial intelligence [15][17] - The end of the Model S signifies not just the retirement of a flagship model but also the decline of the automotive company definition in the face of AI advancements [17][18]