Core Viewpoint - Intel's new CEO, Pat Gelsinger, is considering a significant shift in its wafer foundry strategy to attract major clients, potentially prioritizing the development of the next-generation 14A process over the previously planned Intel 18A process [1][2]. Group 1: Strategy and Development - Intel may halt marketing the 18A process to new clients as early as July, with a final decision possibly delayed until fall due to the complexity and financial implications involved [1]. - The company is currently in the risk production phase for the Intel 18A process, which is expected to reach mass production this year, but there are indications that resources may be redirected towards the 14A process [1][2]. - The 14A process is viewed as having the potential to surpass TSMC's technology in certain aspects, aiming to attract major clients like Apple and Nvidia, who currently rely on TSMC for their chip production [1]. Group 2: Financial Implications - If Intel decides to abandon the 18A and 18A-P processes, it may incur significant write-downs, potentially amounting to hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars [2]. - Intel's primary customers for the 18A process have been internal, with plans to produce the Panther Lake laptop chips, which are touted as the most advanced processors designed and manufactured in the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Client Commitments and Market Position - Intel has made commitments to Amazon and Microsoft to produce a limited quantity of chips using the 18A process, with set delivery timelines [2][3]. - TSMC has highlighted its advancements in 2nm and A16 process technologies, indicating a competitive edge in energy-efficient computing, with most innovators collaborating with TSMC [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rise in technology stocks, which has positively influenced major U.S. stock indices, particularly the Nasdaq Composite Index, leading to an overall market uptrend [2][6]. Market Performance - On July 2, major U.S. indices saw gains, with the Nasdaq rising approximately 0.8% and the S&P 500 increasing about 0.3% [2]. - The Nasdaq Composite Index reached a high of 20,382.19 during trading, closing at 20,361.53, reflecting a gain of 158.65 points or 0.79% [4]. Key Stock Movements - Notable technology stocks experienced significant increases: - Tesla rose over 4% due to better-than-expected sales performance [6][7]. - Apple saw an increase of nearly 2% following an analyst upgrade [6][7]. - TSMC and Nvidia also reported gains of over 3% and 2%, respectively [6][7]. Employment Data Impact - The market was initially pressured by a report indicating a decrease of 33,000 jobs in the private sector, marking the first decline since March 2023 [8]. - Analysts suggest that if upcoming official employment data reflects similar weakness, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [8][9]. Federal Reserve Outlook - There is an increasing market expectation for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability rising to about 25% for a cut in July [8][10]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the Fed might act sooner than expected if employment data continues to show weakness [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" (OW) rating for TSMC based on strong demand in the AI supply chain [2][3][4]. Core Insights - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is projected to grow over 30% year-over-year, reaching approximately 90-95k by 2026, which is positive for both Nvidia and AI ASIC supply chains [2][3][4]. - There is strong demand for AI applications in China, but hardware supply constraints are a significant bottleneck [3][4]. - The report highlights a bullish sentiment among investors regarding AI, with key concerns focused on potential demand issues and alternative investments beyond Nvidia [2][3]. Summary by Sections TSMC Capacity and Demand - TSMC's CoWoS total capacity is expected to be around 90-95k in 2026, indicating a 33% growth from 70k at the end of 2025 [2][3][8]. - The CoWoS-L capacity may expand to 68k, reflecting strong demand for Blackwell and Rubin chips [2][3][8]. AI Supply Chain Insights - Chinese AI developers are aware of Nvidia's B30 chips, with foundry wafer orders totaling 2 million units in the second half of 2025, but no confirmed purchase orders have been made [3][4]. - If B30 shipments to China are not realized, developers may shift to Huawei chips, although availability remains uncertain [3][4]. ASIC Design Services - Alchip is expected to be the sole source for Trainium3 XPU, with revenue anticipated to ramp up significantly in 2026 [4][5]. - Marvell's focus will be on "XPU-attach" chips, and the longevity of Trainium2 will impact its growth in 2026 [4][5]. AI Capex and Market Sentiment - The top four US hyperscalers are projected to generate $550 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, supporting ongoing investments in AI-related data centers [31][32]. - The report anticipates a 43% year-over-year growth in cloud capex for 2025, up from a previous forecast of 39% [41][42].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's recent technology forum in Shanghai highlighted the company's advancements in semiconductor technology and its market outlook, particularly focusing on the growth of the semiconductor market driven by high-performance computing (HPC) and AI integration, despite limitations in advanced process offerings to Chinese clients [3][4][5]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor market is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2030, with HPC accounting for 45%, smartphones for 25%, automotive for 15%, and IoT for 10% [5][6]. Advanced Process Technology - TSMC's 3nm family continues to evolve, with N3P expected to enter mass production in Q4 2024, enhancing performance by 5% or reducing power consumption by 5-10% compared to N3E [6][9]. - N2P is anticipated to begin production in H2 2026, offering an 18% performance increase at the same power level and a 36% reduction in power at the same performance level [11][13]. - The A16 process, set for mass production in H2 2026, integrates three innovative technologies, promising an 8-10% performance boost or a 15-20% reduction in power consumption compared to N2P [14][19][22]. - The A14 process, based on second-generation GAA technology, is expected to start production in 2028, with significant improvements in speed and energy efficiency [20][22]. Advanced Packaging Technology - TSMC's 3DFabric® technology includes SoIC platforms for 3D silicon stacking, with N3-on-N4 stacking expected to enter mass production in 2025 [23][25]. - The SoW-X platform, set for 2027, aims to enhance computational capabilities significantly, integrating essential components for AI training [30]. Special Process Technologies - TSMC is advancing automotive technology with its latest logic technologies, which enhance performance by approximately 20% per generation while reducing power consumption by 30-40% [32]. - The company is also focusing on IoT applications, with developments in ultra-low leakage SRAM and logic circuits to extend battery life [38]. Manufacturing Excellence - TSMC anticipates a twelvefold increase in wafer shipments for AI-related products by 2025 compared to 2021 [44]. - The company plans to add nine new facilities by 2025 to expand capacity, including six wafer fabs in Taiwan and two overseas [45]. - TSMC is committed to sustainable manufacturing, aiming for net-zero emissions by 2050 and a 98% resource recovery rate by 2030 [46][48].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor sector in the US stock market is experiencing an upward trend, with significant gains in major companies like TSMC, AMD, Micron Technology, and NVIDIA, driven by favorable legislative changes regarding investment tax credits for chip manufacturers [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.4% [1] - TSMC's stock rose over 2.8%, reaching a historical high of $231.68 [1] - AMD's stock increased by over 1.5%, Micron Technology by over 1%, and NVIDIA by over 2.6% [1] Group 2: Legislative Impact - The US Senate passed the final version of the "CHIPS for America" Act, which offers a 35% investment tax credit for chip companies that begin construction on new factories in the US before the 2026 deadline [1] - This new tax credit significantly exceeds the current 25% credit outlined in existing legislation [1]

Group 1 - Intel's stock dropped over 5% as the company considers adjusting its chip foundry business strategy [1] - The company is betting on advanced 14A process technology to attract customers from TSMC [1]

Market Overview - US stock index futures showed mixed results with Dow futures up 0.19% and S&P 500 futures up 0.10%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.01% [1] - European indices also experienced gains, with Germany's DAX up 0.17%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.25%, France's CAC40 up 1.08%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.53% [2][3] Oil Prices - WTI crude oil rose by 0.89% to $66.03 per barrel, while Brent crude oil also increased by 0.89% to $67.71 per barrel [3][4] Employment Data - The ADP employment report is set to be released, with expectations of an increase of 95,000 jobs in June, following a disappointing gain of 37,000 in May [5] - The job market remains strong, leading to rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield climbing to 4.28% [6] Legislative Developments - The Senate passed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which includes significant tax cuts and increased military spending, potentially adding $3.3 trillion to the national debt [6] - The "Big Beautiful Act" also includes a tax credit increase for semiconductor manufacturing from 25% to 35%, aimed at boosting domestic production [7] Stock Market Reactions - Solar stocks surged following the Senate's decision to eliminate consumption taxes on wind and solar projects, with Shoals Technologies rising nearly 24% [11] - Jeff Bezos sold $736.7 million worth of Amazon stock as part of a pre-planned trading strategy [9] Company-Specific News - Ford's electric vehicle sales fell by 31.4% in Q2 due to the suspension of the Mustang Mach-E sales over safety concerns [12] - Intel plans to halt external sales of its 18A process technology, focusing instead on its 14A advanced process to attract major clients [10] - Major banks, including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, increased dividends after passing the Federal Reserve's stress tests [13]

Core Viewpoint - United Microelectronics Corporation (UMC) is exploring the feasibility of entering advanced chip production, specifically targeting 6nm technology, to enhance its growth potential in a market dominated by TSMC, Samsung, and Intel [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Developments - UMC is assessing future growth drivers, including the potential production of 6nm chips suitable for advanced connectivity applications and AI accelerators [1]. - The company is considering expanding its collaboration with Intel in 12nm chip production, potentially incorporating 6nm technology into this partnership [1][2]. - UMC's CFO indicated that substantial progress in advanced manufacturing technology will depend on partnerships to alleviate financial burdens [2]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - UMC is currently the fourth largest chip foundry globally, with a market share of 4.7%, following TSMC, Samsung, and SMIC [3][4]. - As of Q1 2025, UMC's revenue decreased by 5.8%, reflecting competitive pressures from local Chinese manufacturers and the rise of SMIC, which has overtaken UMC to become the third largest foundry [2][3]. - The global foundry market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies accounting for 90.2% of the market share [3]. Group 3: Financial Considerations and Challenges - Entering the 6nm production space may require significant capital investment, estimated at around $5 billion, which poses a challenge for UMC [7]. - UMC's capital expenditure for the current year is projected to be $1.8 billion, significantly lower than SMIC's ongoing expenditure of over $7 billion [7]. - The company is exploring a "light asset" model to share the financial burden of new technology investments with partners [7]. Group 4: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - By 2030, mainland China is expected to lead global semiconductor foundry capacity, potentially holding 30% of the market, which adds competitive pressure on UMC [5]. - The demand for mature semiconductor products is rebounding slower than expected, prompting UMC to seek new growth opportunities [7]. - The transition to advanced chip production is complicated by the need for cutting-edge equipment, such as EUV lithography machines, which are costly and may impact production quality if older technologies are used [8].

Core Insights - Navitas Semiconductor has announced a strategic partnership with Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) to produce and develop 200mm silicon-based gallium nitride (GaN) technology after TSMC plans to terminate its GaN foundry business by 2027 [1][2] - The collaboration aims to meet the growing demand for GaN products in 48V infrastructure, including large-scale AI data centers and electric vehicles, with initial devices expected to be certified by Q4 2025 [1][2] Group 1 - Navitas will utilize Powerchip's 200mm wafer production capabilities at its 8B fab in Taiwan, which has been operational since 2019, to support various GaN mass production processes [1] - Powerchip's advanced 180nm CMOS technology will enhance performance, power efficiency, integration, and cost-effectiveness of Navitas's GaN product lineup, which will range from 100V to 650V [1][2] - The first 100V series is expected to enter production in H1 2026, while the 650V devices will transition from TSMC to Powerchip within the next 12-24 months [1] Group 2 - Navitas has made several announcements in the AI data center, electric vehicle, and solar markets, including collaborations with NVIDIA and Enphase, showcasing its GaN and SiC technology [2] - The CEO of Navitas expressed excitement about the partnership with Powerchip, emphasizing the commitment to continuous innovation in product performance and cost efficiency [2] - Powerchip's general manager highlighted the long-standing collaboration with Navitas in GaN-on-Si technology and the nearing completion of product certification, paving the way for mass production [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is advancing the localization of the semiconductor industry, with a recent Senate amendment increasing the tax credit for semiconductor companies from 25% to 35%, surpassing the previously proposed 30% [1] - This policy adjustment is an extension of the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which aims to accelerate investment by global semiconductor giants in the U.S. through $39 billion in special appropriations and $75 billion in loans [1] - Companies like Intel, TSMC, and Micron can benefit from the upgraded tax incentives if they complete advanced manufacturing capacity expansion in the U.S. by 2026 [1] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a notable acceleration in investment, with TSMC expanding its U.S. manufacturing footprint and companies like Nvidia and Micron increasing domestic investments [2] - The tariff investigations initiated by the Trump administration on semiconductor technology imports have created a sense of urgency for companies to establish manufacturing in the U.S. [2] - The amendment still requires final approval from the House of Representatives, and if passed, it would signify a new height in U.S. semiconductor industry support and a milestone in the strategy to "de-Asianize" the semiconductor sector [2]