21世纪经济报道记者 张伟泽 实习生 王艺之 香港报道 瑞银集团最新发布的报告指出，人形机器人正从科幻走向现实，预计到2050年，全球人形机器人市场规 模有望达到1.4万亿至1.7万亿美元。 7月7日，瑞银中国机械行业分析师王斐丽在媒体分享会上表示，鉴于技术与监管方面的影响，五年内人 形机器人市场或不会出现"电动汽车时刻"，即技术瓶颈得以解决并实现销量大幅增长。但人形机器人长 期发展前景广阔，未来25年复合增长率将超过40%。 报告强调，在行业发展初期，上游关键零部件供应商将率先受益，而整机厂商由于研发上的大量投入， 面临短期压力。 人形机器人将率先在工业场景落地 王斐丽介绍，在基准假设下，到2050年，全球人形机器人年度需求将提升至8600万台，全球保有量将突 破3亿台。全球人形机器人领域的投资活动呈现强劲势头。数据显示，2022年至2024年，相关投资项目 数量从33个增至75个，投资金额也从4.77亿美元跃升至18.99亿美元。其中，中国和美国是该领域投资总 额最大的两个国家。 对于人形机器人的商业化落地，报告认为工业场景和服务业场景将率先实现落地，最后才会进入家庭场 景。王斐丽解释说，工业场景对机器人 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS Global Research anticipates that the European Central Bank will lower its policy interest rate by 25 basis points in July [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rate Forecast** - The expected reduction in the policy interest rate is projected to be 25 basis points [1]

Group 1: OPEC+ Production and Oil Price Forecasts - Goldman Sachs expects OPEC+ member countries to increase oil production by 550,000 barrels per day in September, fully canceling the voluntary reduction of 2.2 million barrels per day [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent crude oil price forecast at $59 per barrel for Q4 2025, citing supply shortfalls and reduced idle capacity as key factors [2] - UBS analysts indicate that OPEC+'s unexpected production increase reinforces expectations for further declines in oil prices, predicting Brent crude could drop to $60 per barrel by year-end [8] Group 2: Currency and Trade Policy Implications - UBS analysts warn that if the U.S. reinstates higher tariffs without a trade agreement, the dollar may weaken against major currencies [3] - Targeted tariffs by the U.S. could support the dollar in the short term, as they may strengthen the dollar against specific countries while weakening it against broader tariffs [4] - The impact of further tariff delays on the dollar remains uncertain, with potential for initial support if high tariffs are avoided [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Deutsche Bank analysts note that gold prices are primarily supported by the instability of U.S. policies, which erodes investor confidence in U.S. assets [6] - Citic Securities reports that the current market environment resembles late 2014, with signs of recovery in investor sentiment and potential catalysts for market movement [11] - Citic Securities highlights that the "Big and Beautiful" Act may negatively impact U.S. healthcare and renewable energy sectors while benefiting technology and manufacturing industries [12]

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is shifting towards macroeconomic data, particularly the actual evolution of economic growth and inflation, despite recent policy uncertainties [1] - UBS expects a slowdown in US economic growth but does not foresee a recession, with consumer spending likely to moderate due to inflationary pressures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation data is anticipated to become evident in the coming months, with economic growth expected to weaken further by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates in September, with a forecast of four consecutive 25 basis point cuts [1] - The assumption is that the effective tariff rate will stabilize at the current level of 15%, which is not expected to trigger an economic recession [1] Group 3 - As policy outlook becomes clearer, UBS suggests that market volatility will gradually return to normal, advising investors to prepare for opportunities in 2026 [2] - Investment strategies include continuing to allocate to gold for political risk hedging, investing in quality fixed-income products, and positioning for long-term equity investments [3] Group 4 - UBS has upgraded the financial sector to an "attractive" rating due to benefits from regulatory easing and capital returns post-stress tests [3] - The firm maintains an "attractive" rating for communication services, healthcare, utilities, and information technology, citing strong growth drivers and defensive attributes [3]

Company Overview - Proactive is a financial news publisher that provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The company has a team of experienced news journalists who produce independent content across key finance and investing hubs, including London, New York, Toronto, Vancouver, Sydney, and Perth [2] Market Focus - Proactive specializes in medium and small-cap markets while also covering blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - The content delivered by the team includes insights across various sectors such as biotech and pharma, mining and natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging digital and EV technologies [3] Technology Adoption - Proactive is recognized for its forward-looking approach and enthusiastic adoption of technology to enhance workflows [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring that all content is edited and authored by humans to maintain quality and best practices in content production [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that targeted tariffs may support the US dollar in the short term [1] - UBS analysts suggest that the US may impose tariffs on countries that have not made significant progress in trade agreements while extending tariff suspensions for those that have [1] - The report indicates that targeted tariffs against specific countries tend to strengthen the dollar, whereas broad tariffs generally weaken it [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts indicate that the impact of a potential further suspension of tariffs on the US dollar remains uncertain, with a 90-day tariff suspension ending on July 9 [1] Group 1 - A further suspension of tariffs may be interpreted as a reluctance to implement tariffs, potentially boosting risk-sensitive currencies [1] - If high tariffs are avoided, the US dollar could receive some initial support [1] - However, a reduction in tariffs might lead the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that if tariffs had not boosted inflation expectations, he would have already cut interest rates [1]

ab Global Research 30 June 2025 China Economic Comment China Weekly: Sliding Home Sales, Trade-In to Continue, Trade Talks, Weak May Profits High frequency: sliding home sales, softer port activities in June 30-city property sales declined further to -11% YoY in the first 28 days of June from -3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -7% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 11% YoY and tier 3 cities weakened to -17% YoY (also see latest China housing survey). Port cargo throughput and container thro ...

UBS Group AG (UBS) is looking like an interesting pick from a technical perspective, as the company reached a key level of support. Recently, UBS's 50-day simple moving average crossed above its 200-day simple moving average, known as a "golden cross."There's a reason traders love a golden cross -- it's a technical chart pattern that can indicate a bullish breakout is on the horizon. This kind of crossover is formed when a stock's short-term moving average breaks above a longer-term moving average. Typicall ...

Core Insights - The American dream of owning a large house with a white picket fence is fading for many, yet 379,000 new millionaires emerged in the U.S. last year, indicating a shift in wealth accumulation [1][2]. Group 1: Millionaire Growth - According to UBS, over 1,000 new millionaires are created daily in the U.S., with the ultra-high-net-worth population growing by 1.5% [2]. - The U.S. has the highest number of millionaires globally, four times that of China, and surpasses the combined total of millionaires in France, the UK, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Australia [3]. Group 2: Wealth Composition - The surge in millionaire numbers is primarily driven by real estate appreciation, alongside record performance in the stock market [4]. - The "middle-class millionaire" segment, defined as those with assets between $1 million and $5 million, is becoming the main growth driver, holding a total wealth of approximately $107 trillion, which is over four times that of the early 2000s [5]. - In the U.S., real estate and mortgages account for 30% of wealth, while securities and financial instruments make up 37%, highlighting the effectiveness of investment strategies [5]. Group 3: Future Wealth Transfer - An estimated $83 trillion in wealth will be transferred globally over the next 20 to 25 years, with $74 trillion expected to be passed down through generations, suggesting a continued rise in new millionaires [6]. Group 4: Economic Disparities - Despite the increase in millionaires, many Americans face economic challenges, with the top 20% of households holding an average net worth of $4.3 million, representing 71% of national wealth, while the bottom 50% average only $60,000 [7]. - Ordinary Americans are accumulating wealth through insurance and retirement plans, although younger generations have yet to fully embrace these methods [7]. Group 5: Real Estate Investment Advice - Real estate mogul Barbara Corcoran advises potential investors to act quickly in the current market, suggesting that a decrease in interest rates could lead to a surge in property prices [7].