智通财经4月24日电，瑞银将印度股票评级上调至中性；将印尼股票评级上调至增持。 ...

智通财经4月23日电，瑞银集团全球研究部将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.5%，低于之前预测的 2.9%。 ...

Group 1: Market Outlook - Foreign financial institutions remain optimistic about the prospects of the Chinese market, with a notable increase in confidence among professional investors [1][2] - Goldman Sachs analysts indicate that global active funds and hedge funds have slightly increased their positions in the AI-driven market, suggesting limited selling space and low downside risk [2] - UBS analysts highlight that the static P/E ratios for the CSI 300 index and all A-shares are 11.7 times and 13.8 times, respectively, indicating that A-shares have a higher risk premium compared to historical averages [2] Group 2: Investment Focus - Foreign institutions are focusing on sectors such as AI, consumption, and high-dividend stocks, with a particular interest in companies benefiting from domestic demand [3] - Analysts suggest that the current dividend yields for A-shares and Hong Kong bank stocks range from 4% to 6%, making them attractive for long-term and value investors [3] - The emphasis is on identifying companies with long-term competitive advantages rather than chasing short-term market trends [3] Group 3: Expansion of Foreign Financial Institutions - Several foreign financial institutions are accelerating their business development in China, with AXA's reinsurance company recently approved to operate in Shanghai [4] - UBS has received approval to establish a wholly-owned securities company in China, which is expected to become the fifth foreign-owned securities firm in the country [4] - The People's Bank of China has introduced 20 policy measures to promote financial openness, aiming to enhance the international competitiveness of China's financial sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - UBS expects the S&P 500 index to weaken further in the short term but rebound to 5,300 points by the end of 2025, potentially reaching 5,500 points if tariffs on Chinese imports are halved [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is anticipated to decline further due to significant economic deterioration [1] - The S&P 500 index is projected to rebound to 5,300 points by the end of 2025, with a possibility of reaching 5,500 points if tariffs on Chinese imports are reduced by 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The market has not yet reached its bottom, influenced by potential earnings downgrades, Federal Reserve responses, and valuations above trough levels [1] - It is expected that stock market valuations may hit a bottom in the third quarter, coinciding with peak credit spreads and the beginning of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] Group 3: Comparative Index Performance - By the end of 2025, the Stoxx 600 index is forecasted to outperform the S&P 500 index by approximately 5%, with a projected outperformance of 7% by the end of 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has raised "reciprocal tariffs" on China to 125%, with China retaliating with similar tariff hikes, leading to significant trade tensions [2][3] - Approximately 60% of US imports from China are now subject to tariff hikes of 145%, which includes both the new reciprocal tariffs and previously implemented fentanyl tariffs [3][4] - The report anticipates a substantial decline in China's exports to the US, projecting a decrease of two-thirds in the coming quarters and an overall export decline of 10% in USD terms for 2025 [8][11] - A broad fiscal expansion of 1.5-2 percentage points of GDP is expected from China to support the economy amid these challenges [9][13] - The GDP growth forecast for China has been downgraded to 3.4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026, reflecting the adverse effects of tariff shocks [11][17] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The US has implemented significant tariff hikes on various goods, with the latest exemptions for electronics adding an estimated $64 billion of US imports from China to the exempted list [3][4] - The report suggests that ongoing tariff negotiations may not lead to immediate reductions in the current tariff levels [7] Economic Forecast - The report estimates that the tariff hikes will drag down China's GDP growth by more than 2 percentage points, with a notable impact on domestic investment and consumption [8][11] - The expected inflation in China is projected to be negative in both 2025 and 2026 due to reduced external demand and domestic price pressures [11] Currency Outlook - The report does not foresee significant movements in the USDCNY exchange rate, predicting it to trade around 7.5 by the end of 2025 [12][17]

智通财经4月16日电，香港交易所信息显示，瑞银集团在美的集团的持股比例于04月10日从5.21%降至 4.98%。 ...

棱镜 . 以下文章来源于棱镜 ，作者肖望 腾讯新闻出品栏目，《棱镜》聚焦泛财经深度记录。 "避风港"为何失灵？ 作者 | 肖望 编辑 | 孙春芳 来源 | 棱镜 （ID：lengjing_qqfinance） 9 90元/克！这是4月11日一早金饰品牌周大福公布的首饰金价，创下历史新高。两天时间 内大涨近60元/克，连见多了世面的周大福店员也不由得连连感叹：太疯狂了。 首饰金价破千仅一步之遥，另一边周六福品牌的999 .9足金饰品价已抢先一步，挂牌1 010 元/克。 金饰价格创历史新高，背后是国际金价的深"V"型反转：4月3日至4月7日，国际金价连续 三个交易日暴跌，区间跌幅达到7.08%；但从4月8日至4月11日，金价又快速反弹，并创 下历史新高3263美元/盎司。上海黄金交易所报价也从4月7日开盘的7 03元/克拉涨至762 元/克，5天上涨近60元/克，涨幅约8. 40%。 这样的波动幅度，在黄金市场中并不常见。而高盛、瑞银等国际投行还进一步上调了对黄 金的价格预期。 投资者对黄金的押注热情高涨，甚至有投资者贷款炒金，试图抓住黄金的"历史机遇"，短 短五天里就经历了巨亏到大赚的两极反转。 黄金大跌源于 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has raised reciprocal tariffs on China to 125%, with additional tariffs related to fentanyl control, leading to a total of 145% on certain imports [2][3] - China has retaliated with similar tariff hikes, also reaching 125% on US imports [2][3] - Approximately 60% of US imports from China are affected by the new tariff hikes, while the remaining imports face lower tariff rates [3] - The report anticipates a significant decline in China's exports to the US, estimating a reduction of two-thirds in the coming quarters and an overall export decline of 10% in USD terms for 2025 [8][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines the timeline and magnitude of tariff increases, indicating a complex landscape for US-China trade relations [4][5][7] - It suggests that ongoing negotiations may not lead to immediate tariff rollbacks, maintaining the current baseline scenario of high tariffs [7] Economic Forecasts - The GDP growth forecast for China has been downgraded to 3.4% for 2025 and 3% for 2026, reflecting the adverse effects of tariff shocks [12] - The report predicts a more than 2 percentage points drag on China's GDP growth due to tariffs [8] Policy Measures - The report anticipates that China will implement new policy measures to support its economy, including a fiscal expansion of 1.5-2 percentage points of GDP [9][14] - It expects monetary policy adjustments, including potential cuts to policy rates and reserve requirement ratios [9] Currency Outlook - The report does not foresee significant movements in the USDCNY exchange rate, projecting it to trade around 7.5 by the end of 2025 [13][16]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, expecting prices to reach $3,700 and $3,500 per ounce by the end of the year, respectively, driven by stronger-than-expected central bank demand and gold's role as a hedge against economic recession and geopolitical risks [1][3] - Goldman Sachs analysts predict that central banks may purchase an average of 80 tons of gold per month this year, up from their previous estimate of 70 tons, reinforcing their bullish stance on gold [3] - UBS anticipates strong demand across various segments, including central banks and retail investors, due to changing global trade and geopolitical conditions, which necessitate the allocation of safe-haven assets [3][4] Group 2 - Recent inflows into gold-backed ETFs have unexpectedly surged, reflecting new demand from investors seeking to hedge against recession risks and declines in risk asset prices [3] - Goldman Sachs economists estimate a 45% probability of a U.S. economic recession, which could accelerate ETF inflows and push gold prices to $3,880 per ounce by year-end [3] - The liquidity situation may weaken, potentially amplifying gold price movements, partly due to limited growth in mine supply and significant gold holdings by central banks and ETFs [4]

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...