Core Insights - Yum China Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:YUMC) is a significant player in the fast-food industry in China, operating brands such as KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, and competes with McDonald's and Starbucks [1] Financial Performance - YUMC's stock is currently priced at $53.14, reflecting an increase of 4.73% or $2.40, with a trading range today between $50.40 and $53.41 [4] - Over the past year, the stock has reached a high of $53.99 and a low of $41, with a market capitalization of approximately $18.78 billion and a daily trading volume of 1,968,030 shares on the NYSE [4][5] Analyst Outlook - Jefferies analyst Anne Ling has set a price target of $63.64 for YUMC, indicating a potential upside of approximately 19.76%, reflecting confidence in the company's growth prospects and strategic initiatives [2][5] Earnings Call Insights - YUMC recently held its Q4 2025 earnings call, which provided insights into the company's financial performance, highlighting significant achievements and challenges faced during the quarter [3][5]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.14% to 26,885.24 points and a total turnover of HKD 315.11 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that despite recent market volatility, effective measures to cool A-shares, a stronger USD against RMB, and long-term regulatory support for Hong Kong are expected to provide positive liquidity support for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Blue-Chip Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) saw a 2.7% increase, closing at HKD 140.9, contributing 7.38 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company announced a new stock buyback plan of up to USD 5 billion, effective until December 31, 2028, and plans to adopt a dividend policy by 2026 [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Haidilao (06862) up 4.03%, Lenovo Group (00992) up 3.67%, while Zijin Mining (601899) fell 4.76% and New Oriental-S (09901) dropped 3.13% [2] Sector Performance - Large tech stocks rebounded, with Xiaomi and Baidu both rising nearly 3%. Consumer stocks performed well, with Yum China surging over 11% post-earnings [3] - The precious metals sector saw a sharp decline, with gold and silver prices dropping significantly. The market for precious metals is expected to remain volatile due to various economic pressures [4] - The space photovoltaic concept saw a decline, with companies like Junda Co. (02865) dropping 12.35% [4][5] Chip Sector - Chip stocks faced pressure, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) down 4.47% and Shanghai Fudan (01385) down 3.34%. The decline was influenced by AMD's significant drop of 17.31% following its earnings report [6] Company Earnings - Yum China reported total revenue of USD 11.797 billion for 2025, a 4% increase, with a net profit of USD 929 million, up 2%. The company plans to pay a dividend of 29 cents per share [7] - MGM China (02282) reported a net revenue of approximately USD 4.462 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, a 10.92% increase [8] - Tianqi Lithium (002466) saw a significant drop of 13.33% after announcing a placement of 65.05 million new H-shares at a discount [9] - New World Development (01030) fell 13.17% after announcing a placement of 198 million shares at a discount to raise funds for future development and debt repayment [10]

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but closed higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.14% to 26,885.24 points and a total turnover of HKD 315.12 billion [1] - Morgan Stanley noted that despite recent market volatility, effective measures to cool A-shares, a stronger USD against RMB, and long-term regulatory support for Hong Kong are expected to provide positive liquidity support for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [1] Blue-Chip Performance - Baidu Group-SW (09888) saw a 2.7% increase, closing at HKD 140.9 with a turnover of HKD 3.238 billion, contributing 7.38 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Baidu announced a new stock buyback plan with a maximum amount of USD 5 billion, effective until December 31, 2028, and approved a dividend policy expected to be announced in 2026 [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Haidilao (06862) up 4.03%, Lenovo Group (00992) up 3.67%, while Zijin Mining (02899) fell 4.76% and New Oriental-S (09901) dropped 3.13% [2] Sector Performance Consumer Sector - Large consumer stocks performed well, with Yum China rising over 11% post-earnings, and other consumer stocks like Mao Ge Ping (01318) up 5.29% and Haidilao (06862) up 4.03% [3] - Citigroup highlighted that the 2026 consumer recovery will rely on sustainable profit growth rather than short-term policy stimulus, naming several companies as industry favorites [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw a significant decline, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply, and major companies like China Aluminum (02600) and Jiangxi Copper (00358) also experiencing losses [4] - Guojin Securities indicated that the gold and silver markets are becoming increasingly volatile, influenced by various macroeconomic factors [4] Space Photovoltaics - The space photovoltaic concept saw a decline, with companies like Junda Co. (02865) dropping 12.35% as the technology is still in the early exploration phase [5] - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that the technology is not yet ready for large-scale commercialization [5] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks faced pressure, with companies like Zhaoyi Innovation (03986) down 4.47% following a significant drop in AMD shares, which fell 17.31% after disappointing guidance despite strong revenue growth [6] - The decline in AMD affected other major storage companies, leading to collective losses in the sector [6] Notable Company Updates - Yum China reported total revenue of USD 11.797 billion for 2025, a 4% increase, with a net profit of USD 929 million, reflecting a 2% growth [7] - MGM China (02282) reported a net revenue of approximately USD 4.462 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, a 10.92% increase [8] - Tianqi Lithium (09696) saw a significant drop of 13.33% after announcing a placement of new H-shares and convertible bonds, raising a total of HKD 58.61 billion [9] - New City Development (01030) fell 13.17% after announcing a share placement at a discount to raise funds for future development and debt repayment [10]

Core Insights - Yum China reported a 9% year-over-year increase in total revenue for Q4 2025, reaching $2.8 billion, with system sales up 7% and same-store sales up 3% for the third consecutive quarter [1] - The company achieved a 25% increase in operating profit to $187 million, with a core operating profit growth of 23% [1] - The net addition of stores reached a record high in Q4, totaling 587, with 36% being franchise stores [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the full year 2025 increased by 4% to $11.8 billion, with system sales also up 4% excluding foreign currency effects [1] - Same-store sales for the year grew by 1%, with a total of 1,706 net new stores added, 31% of which were franchise stores [1] - As of the end of the year, the total number of stores reached 18,101 [1] Operational Highlights - Delivery sales grew by 34% year-over-year, accounting for 53% of restaurant revenue, up from 42% in the previous year [1] - KFC and Pizza Hut's combined membership exceeded 590 million, a 13% increase year-over-year, with active members reaching 265 million [2] - KFC's new coffee concept, KPRO, and the WOW store model have successfully expanded into previously uncovered areas, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][7] Strategic Outlook - The company aims to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026, with plans to reach over 30,000 by 2030, utilizing a combination of self-operated and franchised models [2][10] - The RGM 3.0 strategy will continue to drive innovation and efficiency [2] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in lower-tier cities and strategic locations, with a significant increase in franchise store contributions [9][10]

本报告导读： 同店维持正增，肯德基 TA 企稳。 投资要点： | 财务摘要(百万美元) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 11,303 | 11,797 | 12,666 | 13,412 | 14,137 | | (+/-)% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.4% | | 毛利润 | 2,331 | 2,561 | 3,085 | 3,424 | 3,786 | | 净利润（归母） | 911 | 929 | 1,005 | 1,062 | 1,143 | | (+/-)% | 10.2% | 2.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 7.6% | | PE | | 19.02 | 17.51 | 15.89 | 14.32 | | PB | | 3.16 | 3.29 | 2.94 | 2.64 | | 资料来源：Wind，国泰海通证券研究 | | | | | | 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.05 同店销 ...

Core Viewpoint - Yum China Holdings, Inc. reported strong financial performance for Q4 and the full year of FY2025, driven by a dual strategy of innovation and efficiency, leading to steady revenue and profit growth [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY2025 reached $11.8 billion, a 4% year-over-year increase - Operating profit margin improved by 60 basis points to 10.9%, marking the highest level since the company went public in the U.S. - Same-store sales grew for the third consecutive quarter, with same-store transaction volume increasing for the twelfth consecutive quarter [1] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2025 and another $1.5 billion in 2026 - Cash dividends per share increased by 21% to $0.29, with a stock buyback plan of approximately $460 million in the first half of 2026 [2] Store Expansion and Operational Efficiency - As of December 31, 2025, the total number of stores reached 18,101, with a net addition of 1,706 stores during the year, 31% of which were franchise stores - The company aims to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026 and over 30,000 by 2030 - KFC and Pizza Hut both exceeded expectations in store expansion and operational efficiency [3] Membership and Digitalization - The total number of members for KFC and Pizza Hut surpassed 590 million, a 13% year-over-year increase, enhancing brand influence and long-term value [4] Innovation and Product Development - The company focuses on product innovation, with KFC's new items contributing approximately one-third of total sales - Pizza Hut sold over 200 million pizzas in 2025, with the newly launched hand-tossed pizza becoming a bestseller [5] New Store Models - The WOW model for Pizza Hut simplifies menu structure and optimizes operations, allowing entry into previously uncovered markets - The "Twin Stars" model, where KFC and Pizza Hut co-locate, was piloted in 2025, with plans for further expansion [6] Future Outlook - Yum China is committed to a dual strategy of innovation and quality improvement, demonstrating resilience through industry cycles - The company will continue to deepen its strategic layout in the Chinese market, focusing on expanding in lower-tier cities and remote areas [7]

Core Viewpoint - Yum China continues to demonstrate synchronized growth in scale, same-store sales, and profitability, despite increasing pressure from delivery services and competition in the food delivery market [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Yum China's system sales increased by 7% year-on-year, while same-store sales grew by 3%, marking the third consecutive quarter of positive growth [1]. - The company added 1,706 new stores in 2025, bringing the total to 18,101 stores across over 2,500 towns [1]. - The operating profit margin reached 10.9% for the year, an increase of 60 basis points year-on-year, achieving the highest level since the company's listing in the U.S. after excluding special items [1]. Delivery and Market Trends - Delivery sales grew by 25% year-on-year in 2025, accounting for 48% of restaurant revenue, up 9 percentage points from the previous year [2]. - In Q4, delivery sales for KFC and Pizza Hut reached 53% and 54%, respectively, indicating a consistent upward trend throughout the year [2]. Pricing Strategy - KFC raised delivery product prices by approximately 0.8 yuan starting January 26 to offset rising delivery costs associated with increased delivery sales [3]. - The CEO noted that the growth of delivery services is expected to continue into 2026, and larger brands benefit from the competitive landscape of delivery platform subsidies [3]. Operational Efficiency - Yum China is implementing operational efficiency measures, including product innovation and the use of AI tools to optimize staffing and inventory management [4]. - In Q4 2025, KFC and Pizza Hut's restaurant profit margins increased by 70 and 60 basis points, respectively, due to these efficiency initiatives [4]. Expansion Strategy - The "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" model has proven effective in enhancing store efficiency and growth, with KFC's sub-brand K-Coffee expanding from 700 to 2,200 stores in 2025 [5]. - KPRO (KFC's healthy food brand) surpassed 200 stores and contributed double-digit sales growth to parent stores [7]. - Yum China plans to double KPRO's store count to over 400 in 2026, focusing on high-tier cities [8]. Future Goals - Yum China aims to reach a total of 30,000 stores by 2030, expanding its presence from approximately 2,500 cities to 4,500 [11]. - The company is adjusting its expansion strategy by increasing the proportion of franchise stores, which rose from 25% to 36% of new store openings in 2025, with plans to reach 40%-50% in 2026 [13]. - The company is confident in achieving its goal of 20,000 stores by 2026, with total capital expenditures expected to remain between $600 million and $700 million [18].

Core Insights - Yum China reported a 25% year-on-year increase in operating profit for Q4 2025, with same-store sales growth for the third consecutive quarter [1] - For the full year, total revenue grew by 4% to $11.8 billion, and operating profit reached $1.3 billion, an 11% increase year-on-year [1] Expansion Strategy - The company aims to exceed 20,000 stores by 2026 and over 30,000 by 2030, focusing on both self-operated and franchised models [1] - As of December 2025, Yum China had a total of 18,101 stores, covering over 2,500 towns, with a net addition of 1,706 stores in 2025 [1] Brand Performance - KFC added 1,349 new stores in 2025, with system sales increasing by 8% in Q4 and same-store sales showing positive growth for three consecutive quarters [2] - Pizza Hut achieved a record high with 444 new stores in 2025, and same-store sales increased by 6% in Q4, with a 13% rise in same-store transaction volume [2] Membership Growth - By the end of 2025, the combined membership for KFC and Pizza Hut surpassed 590 million, reflecting a 13% year-on-year growth [1] New Market Strategies - The introduction of the WOW model has allowed Pizza Hut to enter over 200 new cities, with about half of these using the new model to penetrate previously uncovered areas, particularly in lower-tier cities [2] - The proportion of franchise stores in new openings increased from 25% in 2024 to 36% in 2025, while self-operated stores remain the core of the business, accounting for over 80% of total stores [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yum China (9987) is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - Same-store sales continue to show positive growth, with KFC's transaction average stabilizing [2] - The report forecasts a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with a target price set at 500.00 HKD based on a 22x PE for 2026 [10] - The company is experiencing an increase in delivery sales, which now account for 53% of total sales, up from 51% in the previous quarter [10] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 11,303 million USD in 2024 to 14,137 million USD in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 911 million USD in 2024 to 1,143 million USD in 2028, with a notable increase of 10.2% in 2024 [4] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 19.02 in 2025 to 14.32 in 2028, indicating improving valuation metrics [4] Operational Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.823 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 9% [10] - Operating profit for Q4 2025 was 187 million USD, up 25% year-on-year, with an operating margin of 6.6% [10] - The total number of stores reached 18,101 by the end of 2025, marking a 10% year-on-year increase [10] Profitability Metrics - The restaurant profit margin improved to 13.0% in Q4 2025, up 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by reduced costs in food, packaging, and rent [10] - KFC's restaurant profit margin was 14.0%, while Pizza Hut's was 9.9%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [10]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has upgraded Yum China Holdings to a "Buy" rating and increased the price target, reflecting strong financial performance and positive growth prospects for the company [1][6]. Financial Performance - Yum China reported earnings of $0.40 per share for the fourth quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.35 per share by 14.29% [2][6]. - The company's revenues for the quarter reached $2.82 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.01% and showing an increase from $2.6 billion in the same quarter the previous year [3][6]. Stock Performance - The stock price of Yum China (YUMC) is currently at $53.14, reflecting a price increase of $2.40 or 4.73% [4]. - Over the past year, YUMC has fluctuated between a low of $41 and a high of $53.99, indicating a positive trend in its stock performance [4]. Market Position - Yum China's market capitalization is approximately $18.79 billion, with a trading volume of 1,968,030 shares, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's growth prospects [5].