2025 年 4 季度公募基金银行持仓点评 主动基金配置比例仍处低位 glmszqdatemark 分析师：王先爽 分析师：乔丹 执业证书：S0590525120014 执业证书：S0590526010003 邮箱：wangxianshuang@glms.com.cn 邮箱：qiaodan@glms.com.cn 推荐 维持评级 相对走势 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/1 2025/7 2026/1 银行 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 2026 年 01 月 25 日 [Table_Author] 25Q4 公募基金持仓银行情况。为了追踪市场偏股公募基金对银行的持仓情况， 我们把其分为三类：1、主动基金：主动股票、偏股混合和灵活配置型基金；2、 ETF 基金：追踪沪深 300、中证 A500 等与银行相关的主要指数的 ETF 基金；3、 非 ETF 指数基金：追踪以上主要指数的非 ETF 类被动指数、指数增强型基金。25 年四季度主动、ETF 和非 ETF 指数基金分别持有银行板块 305.8、2607.2、574.1 亿元，分 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The demand for Tokens is driving inflation across the AI industry chain, with price increases being observed from storage to CPUs and now extending to cloud services, marking a significant shift in the pricing dynamics of the cloud computing sector [14][30] - AWS has initiated a price increase for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks by approximately 15%, breaking a long-standing trend of declining prices in the cloud services industry, which may lead to a revaluation of cloud computing and related service providers [14] - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in cloud computing, CPUs, and databases, suggesting companies such as Alibaba, Kingsoft Cloud, and Inspur for cloud computing; Haiguang Information and Longxin for CPUs; and companies like StarRing Technology and DM Database for databases [30] Summary by Sections 1. Cloud Computing Price Trends - The report indicates that the AI industry chain is experiencing a price transmission trend, with cloud computing being the next area to see price increases following storage and CPU price hikes [14] - AWS's price adjustment reflects anticipated supply-demand dynamics, suggesting that successful price increases could lead to further adjustments in the future [14] 2. CPU Market Dynamics - The report notes a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the CPU market, particularly with Intel facing production limitations that may lead to continued shortages into 2026 [16] - The importance of CPUs is expected to rise significantly due to the increasing demand from AI applications, with the report emphasizing the need for optimization across both CPU and GPU resources [24][25] 3. Database Sector Growth - The report anticipates a rapid increase in the number of database PCU nodes driven by the demand for AI agents, which could lead to significant revenue growth for database providers [26] - The emergence of AI-native databases is highlighted as a key trend, with companies like Alibaba's PolarDB gaining traction in the market [29] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the cloud computing sector such as Alibaba, Kingsoft Cloud, and UCloud, as well as CPU manufacturers like Haiguang Information and Longxin, and database firms like StarRing Technology and DM Database [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.01% year-on-year for 2025, indicating a recovery in revenue growth compared to the previous quarters [6][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.21% year-on-year, showing stable growth [6]. - The company's total assets grew by 7.56% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 5.37% [6]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 391.79% [6]. - The report suggests that the company is expected to leverage its solid retail customer base and asset under management (AUM) advantages to enhance performance in 2026 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at 337.51 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 0.0% - 2026 revenue is expected to reach 349.78 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% - 2027 revenue is forecasted at 365.54 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [6][37] - Net profit for 2025 is estimated at 149.17 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.5% - Net profit for 2026 is projected at 151.57 billion yuan, growing by 1.6% - Net profit for 2027 is expected to be 156.86 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.5% [6][37] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS for 2025 is expected to be 5.69 yuan - EPS for 2026 is projected at 5.79 yuan - EPS for 2027 is forecasted at 6.00 yuan [6][37] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is 7 times, for 2026 is 6 times, and for 2027 is also 6 times - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio for 2025 is 0.8 times, for 2026 is 0.8 times, and for 2027 is 0.7 times [6][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a slight revenue growth of 0.01% year-on-year for 2025, indicating a recovery in growth compared to the previous quarters [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.21% year-on-year, showing stable growth [6] - The asset quality remains robust, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94% and a provision coverage ratio of 391.79% [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2025 revenue is projected at 337,512 million, with growth rates of 0.0% for 2025, 3.6% for 2026, and 4.5% for 2027 [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 149,169 million for 2025, with growth rates of 0.5% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026, and 3.5% for 2027 [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 5.69 for 2025, 5.79 for 2026, and 6.00 for 2027 [6] - **Asset and Liability Growth**: - Total assets grew by 7.56% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 5.37% [6][7] - Total liabilities increased by 7.98%, and deposits grew by 8.13% [6][7] - **Asset Quality Metrics**: - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.94% [6][7] - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 14.14 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][7] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the company is expected to leverage its solid retail customer base and asset under management (AUM) advantages to enhance performance in 2026 as margin pressures ease and capital markets recover [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The demand for Tokens is rapidly increasing, leading to a price increase trend that is expected to extend from upstream components to CPUs and cloud services. AWS has initiated price hikes, breaking the long-standing trend of decreasing cloud service prices, which may lead to a revaluation of cloud computing and related service providers [11][14][30] - The AI industry chain is experiencing inflation transmission, with cloud computing potentially being the next area to see price increases following storage and CPU [14] - The CPU sector is expected to have long-term growth prospects due to the increasing demand for AI computing power, with Intel indicating that supply constraints will persist into 2026 [16][23] - The database segment is also poised to benefit from the rising demand for cloud computing, with the potential for significant revenue growth as the number of database PCU nodes increases [26][29] Summary by Sections 1. AWS Price Increase Initiates Global Cloud Computing Price Trend - The AI industry chain is experiencing a price increase trend, with AWS leading the charge by raising prices for its EC2 machine learning capacity blocks by approximately 15% [14] - This price adjustment reflects a shift in supply-demand dynamics and may facilitate further price increases in the future [14] 1.1 Cloud Computing as the Next Inflation Direction - The demand for AI is driving price increases across various segments, with cloud computing expected to follow suit [14] 1.2 CPU: Long-term Development Prospects Under AI Agent Trend - Intel is facing supply constraints that may continue into 2026, with demand for CPUs expected to exceed supply [16] - The importance of CPUs is increasing as AI applications evolve, necessitating more robust processing capabilities [20][23] 1.3 Database: Another Key Beneficiary of Cloud Computing Industry Chain - The growth in demand for AI-driven applications is expected to increase the number of database PCU nodes, leading to significant revenue potential [26][29] 1.4 Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the following sectors: 1) Cloud Computing: Alibaba, Kingsoft Cloud, UCloud, Deepin Technology, and others 2) CPU: Haiguang Information, China Great Wall, Loongson Technology, and others 3) Database: StarRing Technology, Dameng Database, and others [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the petrochemical sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2][4]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is influencing oil prices, with expectations of supply surplus in 2026. The report suggests that geopolitical developments will continue to dominate oil price movements, with potential for narrow fluctuations before any escalation [8][10]. - Major oil institutions predict a surplus in global oil supply for 2026, with the EIA forecasting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day, OPEC indicating a surplus of 70,000 barrels per day, and IEA adjusting its surplus forecast to 3.84 million barrels per day [11][12]. - The report highlights a decrease in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, with crude oil production at 13.73 million barrels per day, down by 20,000 barrels week-on-week [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The petrochemical sector saw a 7.8% increase as of January 23, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.6% [16][19]. - Among sub-sectors, other petrochemical segments had the highest weekly increase of 11.9%, while oil extraction had the lowest at 4.5% [19]. 2. Company Performance - Notable stock performances include Runbei Hangkai with a 33.40% increase, followed by Intercontinental Oil and Gas at 30.95% [21]. - The largest decline was seen in Baomo Co., which fell by 6.33% [21]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Natural gas production in China showed steady growth, with December output at 23 billion cubic meters, a 5.1% year-on-year increase [24]. - The report notes a decrease in oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, dropping from 5.09 million tons in November to 3.98 million tons in December [24]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with stable performance and high dividends, such as China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation [15]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which has low production costs and is expected to see valuation increases due to stable oil prices [15].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent stock market has shown an upward trend, leading to an increased preference for convertible bonds among incremental funds. The median price changes across various parity ranges of convertible bonds have risen, particularly for equity-sensitive convertible bonds, reflecting market pricing based on future expectations of underlying stock price increases [3][12]. - The report constructs a convertible bond valuation index based on individual bonds and their corresponding parity ranges, which helps track funding allocation and identify investment opportunities. Notable increases in valuations were observed in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, building materials, power equipment, machinery, and basic chemicals, attributed to price increases in these sectors and a potential reversal in the real estate chain's economic conditions [3][12]. - The report suggests that the current funding environment is relatively ample, supporting the notion that equity-sensitive convertible bonds may experience a "rise easy, fall hard" trend in the short term, indicating strong trading value, especially for popular equity-sensitive convertible bonds [3][12]. Group 2 - The weekly convertible bond strategy highlights that the inflow of incremental funds into the market is expected to continue, with a likely "spring excitement" market trend at the beginning of the year. The focus is on investment opportunities in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors [4][17]. - As institutional investors' share in the convertible bond market increases, their expectations for the stock market are expected to have a deeper impact on convertible bond valuations. The report notes that the current investor sentiment towards the medium to long-term stock market remains optimistic, which may sustain demand for equity assets and provide support for convertible bond valuations [4][17]. - The report recommends focusing on convertible bonds in sectors such as technology, driven by rising overseas computing power demand and domestic AI industrialization, as well as high-end manufacturing, which is expected to maintain high levels. Specific convertible bonds to watch include those from companies like Ruike, Qizhong, Yake, Daimai, Xingrui, Huachen, and Yubang [4][17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for major companies in the petrochemical sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is influencing oil prices, with expectations of supply surplus leading to narrow fluctuations in oil prices [8][10]. - Major oil institutions predict a surplus in global oil supply for 2026, with the EIA forecasting a surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day, OPEC indicating a surplus of 70,000 barrels per day, and IEA adjusting its surplus forecast to 3.84 million barrels per day [11][12]. - The report suggests three main investment themes: focusing on stable, high-dividend companies like China National Petroleum and China Petroleum & Chemical; investing in China National Offshore Oil Corporation due to its low production costs; and considering growth-stage companies like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum [15]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector [2]. Market Performance - As of January 23, the petrochemical sector increased by 7.8%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which decreased by 0.6% [19]. Oil and Gas Prices - Brent crude oil prices rose by 2.73% to $65.88 per barrel, while WTI prices increased by 2.74% to $61.07 per barrel [12]. - The NYMEX natural gas price surged by 72.18% to $5.35 per million British thermal units [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.73 million barrels per day, while refinery throughput fell to 16.60 million barrels per day [12]. - U.S. crude oil inventories rose, with strategic reserves increasing by 810,000 barrels [13]. Company Performance - The report highlights significant stock price movements, with companies like Runbei Hangke and Zhongjie Oil experiencing substantial gains [21][22]. - Conversely, Baomo Co. saw the largest decline in stock price [22]. Industry Developments - The report notes stable growth in natural gas production, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [24]. - It also mentions fluctuations in oil exports from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium [24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry leaders with stable earnings and high dividends, as well as companies with growth potential in the domestic market [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending several companies based on their performance and market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound due to tightening supply and ongoing replenishment demand, despite current weak market conditions [11]. - In 2025, domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, an increase of 7.28 million tons (+1.2%) year-on-year, while total imports are expected to decline by 9.6% to 490 million tons [11]. - The report suggests that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, as supply constraints and regulatory normalization take effect [11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [11][16]. Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Recommended": - Jinko Coal Industry: EPS of 1.68 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Shanxi Coal International: EPS of 1.14 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: EPS of 0.82 RMB, PE of 16 for 2024 [2] - Huayang Co.: EPS of 0.62 RMB, PE of 15 for 2024 [2] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.44 RMB, PE of 10 for 2024 [2] - China Shenhua: EPS of 2.95 RMB, PE of 14 for 2024 [2] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: EPS of 2.31 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - China Coal Energy: EPS of 1.46 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - CGN Mining: EPS of 0.04 HKD, PE of 96 for 2024 [2] - Xinji Energy: EPS of 0.92 RMB, PE of 8 for 2024 [2] - Huaibei Mining: EPS of 1.80 RMB, PE of 7 for 2024 [2] - Lanhua Sci-Tech: EPS of 0.49 RMB, PE of 13 for 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.4%, outperforming the broader market indices [18][21]. - The report notes that the focus on high dividend yields and stable earnings among leading companies enhances their defensive value amid uncertain international conditions [12].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The 2025 economic performance achieved a GDP growth target of 5%, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.5% in Q4[33] - The economic activity index at the beginning of 2026 is at a historical high for the same period, influenced by increased policy efforts[13] - The macroeconomic environment shows a trend of "export growth, stable industry, and slow investment and consumption"[35] Group 2: Policy Measures - Significant policy measures have been introduced at the start of 2026, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for elderly care services[21] - The number of policies introduced by various ministries has increased significantly in January 2026 compared to previous years[14] - The fiscal spending growth rate for social welfare has become clearer, indicating a focus on consumer and livelihood sectors[19] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The issuance of special bonds for infrastructure projects in Q1 2026 is lower than expected, indicating a need for increased efforts in this area[25] - The proportion of special bonds directed towards infrastructure has weakened compared to the same period last year[28] - More major projects are expected to be launched in 2026, with an increase in the number of provincial key projects announced[22]