Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal industry, recommending several companies based on their performance and market conditions [2][3]. Core Insights - The coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound due to tightening supply and ongoing replenishment demand, despite current weak market conditions [11]. - In 2025, domestic raw coal production is projected to reach 4.83 billion tons, an increase of 7.28 million tons (+1.2%) year-on-year, while total imports are expected to decline by 9.6% to 490 million tons [11]. - The report suggests that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, as supply constraints and regulatory normalization take effect [11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which has completed overproduction governance [11][16]. Company Performance Predictions - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, all rated as "Recommended": - Jinko Coal Industry: EPS of 1.68 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Shanxi Coal International: EPS of 1.14 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - Lu'an Environmental Energy: EPS of 0.82 RMB, PE of 16 for 2024 [2] - Huayang Co.: EPS of 0.62 RMB, PE of 15 for 2024 [2] - Yancoal Energy: EPS of 1.44 RMB, PE of 10 for 2024 [2] - China Shenhua: EPS of 2.95 RMB, PE of 14 for 2024 [2] - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry: EPS of 2.31 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - China Coal Energy: EPS of 1.46 RMB, PE of 9 for 2024 [2] - CGN Mining: EPS of 0.04 HKD, PE of 96 for 2024 [2] - Xinji Energy: EPS of 0.92 RMB, PE of 8 for 2024 [2] - Huaibei Mining: EPS of 1.80 RMB, PE of 7 for 2024 [2] - Lanhua Sci-Tech: EPS of 0.49 RMB, PE of 13 for 2024 [2] Market Dynamics - The coal sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.4%, outperforming the broader market indices [18][21]. - The report notes that the focus on high dividend yields and stable earnings among leading companies enhances their defensive value amid uncertain international conditions [12].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The 2025 economic performance achieved a GDP growth target of 5%, with a quarterly growth rate of 4.5% in Q4[33] - The economic activity index at the beginning of 2026 is at a historical high for the same period, influenced by increased policy efforts[13] - The macroeconomic environment shows a trend of "export growth, stable industry, and slow investment and consumption"[35] Group 2: Policy Measures - Significant policy measures have been introduced at the start of 2026, including interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and support for elderly care services[21] - The number of policies introduced by various ministries has increased significantly in January 2026 compared to previous years[14] - The fiscal spending growth rate for social welfare has become clearer, indicating a focus on consumer and livelihood sectors[19] Group 3: Investment and Infrastructure - The issuance of special bonds for infrastructure projects in Q1 2026 is lower than expected, indicating a need for increased efforts in this area[25] - The proportion of special bonds directed towards infrastructure has weakened compared to the same period last year[28] - More major projects are expected to be launched in 2026, with an increase in the number of provincial key projects announced[22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - Carbon fiber, referred to as "black gold," is categorized into T series (focused on tensile strength) and M series (focused on tensile modulus), with M series being more suitable for space environments due to its high carbon content and modulus [5][19]. - Carbon fiber is utilized in rockets for critical components such as fairings and landing legs, achieving weight reductions of 20%-50%. The Falcon 9 rocket by SpaceX employs carbon fiber in its structures, while the domestic "Weiguang-1" rocket is expected to achieve over 30% weight reduction with full carbon fiber construction by 2028 [5][34][37]. - In satellites, carbon fiber accounts for approximately 15.1% of materials used, primarily in heat sinks and precision structures. Although aluminum alloys dominate at 36.7%, the penetration of carbon fiber is expected to increase due to its low thermal expansion and weight reduction benefits [5][46]. - The M series carbon fiber has high technical barriers, with key bottlenecks in carbonization and graphitization equipment. Companies like Guangwei Composites have a competitive edge in technology and capacity, while others like Zhongfu Shenying and Heshun Technology are also making strides in the M series carbon fiber sector [5][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Carbon Fiber: "Black Gold" Performance - Carbon fiber can be classified based on precursor type, fiber morphology, bundle specifications, production processes, and mechanical properties. The main categories include PAN-based, pitch-based, and viscose-based fibers [13][15]. - Military applications primarily use small bundles of high-modulus carbon fiber, which are essential in aerospace [15][24]. 2. Rocket Applications of Carbon Fiber - Future applications of carbon fiber in rockets are expected to expand to fairings, interstage sections, and landing legs [7][28]. - The D4 rocket uses carbon fiber composites in various critical components, showcasing the material's advantages over traditional metals [33]. 3. Satellite Applications of Carbon Fiber - The increase in satellite weight is expected to drive higher penetration rates of carbon fiber in satellite structures [41][56]. - Carbon fiber is used in satellite components such as heat sinks, precision structures, solar panel supports, and antenna reflectors, benefiting from its excellent thermal and mechanical properties [45][46]. 4. Related Companies - Guangwei Composites leads in M series carbon fiber production with significant capacity and technological advantages, while Zhongfu Shenying and Heshun Technology are also advancing in this field [61][63].

收官5%后： 2026年"开门红"成色初探 ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年01月24日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境超预期恶化；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 2026年"开门红"成色初探：今年开年政策发力程度明显加大，为经济"开门红"注入动能，促使开年高频经 济活动指数处于近年来历史同期高位。政策往消费、民生领域发力显著，延续2025年以来"投资于人"的政策 逻辑。不过通过专项债发力来看，基建项目可能仍需"加把劲"。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年全年经济成绩单出炉，全年增长目标顺利完成，呈现"出口进、工 业稳、投资与消费缓"的态势；宏观政策方面，财政发力明显，先有财政贴息"大礼包"，后又陆续出台了口 岸进境免税店、失能老年人服务消费补贴等政策。 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：（1）1月27日发布2025年12月工业企业利润数据；（2）1月31日发布2026年1月PMI数 据；（3）地方两会陆续召开中；（4）1月底或2月初发布2025 ...

策略专题研究 需要担心本轮港股 IPO 的"虹吸效应"吗？ glmszqdatemark 港股新一轮上市潮，流动性担忧升温。去年以来，随着政策放宽和市场情绪回 暖，港股 IPO 热度走高，2025 年全年 IPO 数量达 117 家，募资金额达 2863.3 亿港元，同比+224.8%；同时，再融资的规模也同步上升至 3263.7 亿港元，同 比+272.9%。目前看 2026 年的上市潮将延续，投资者担忧对市场流动性的潜在 "虹吸"。本文我们从市场供需入手，结合历史经验，定量讨论这一焦点问题。 IPO 影响显现多在季度层面，且对市场扰动小于再融资。供给端来看，综合考虑 IPO 和再融资，历史上融资潮对市场的影响多在中期（3 个月），其中，当单轮 融资规模超 100 亿港元时，市场中期确实易转跌；不过单次融资超过 150 亿港 元的大型 IPO（优质 or 核心资产）也会提振短期情绪。进一步，对比 IPO 和再 融资不难看出，市场对再融资更敏感，情绪的短期拖累显现更快。不过值得注意 的是，由于企业更倾向于在上涨时再融资，超 250 亿港元的再融资反而易被市 场消化，中期表现反倒更强。需求端而言，其一在认购倍数 ...

人民币升值下的行业机会 ——策略专题研究 分析师：邓宇林、包承超 研究助理：龚嫣然 报告日期：2026年1月23日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 02 摘要 ➢ 风险提示：1）全球地缘政治出现重大变化，导致全球市场风险偏好急剧变化。2）市场流动性超预期变化。3）历史数据不代表未来。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ➢ 1、人民币升值对于A股有何影响？——在人民币升值周期内，无论人民币是否为被动升值，全A指数普遍呈现上行趋势。行业上，人 民币升值对于多数行业股价均有正向影响，其中钢铁、房地产、轻工和交运等行业靠前。风格上，多数区间成长风格强于价值风格， 大盘和小盘之间无明显占优风格。 ➢ 2、如何寻找人民币升值下的行业机会？——基本面视角。直接来看，人民币升值会降低原材料成本和债务成本，间接来看，人民币升 值会提升人民币购买力。1）进口依赖度高且海外营收占比相对较低的行业，人民币升值或能降低原材料成本，如有色、钢铁、煤炭和 农林牧渔。2）美元借款体量大的行业，人民币升值或能降低债务成本，如电子、交运、建筑装饰和家电。3）对于可选消费行业，人 民币升值或能带动业绩增长。 ➢ 3、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The scale of public - offering active equity funds decreased, and the position in Hong Kong stocks declined. The scale of fixed - income funds increased, and the duration remained at a high level. FOF funds maintained a high issuance rhythm, and the scale recovered [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Public Funds 2025Q4 Quarterly Report Highlights - Active equity funds: The scale decreased, and the position in Hong Kong stocks dropped. The number increased steadily, the scale decreased, and the position was at 86% [11][12]. - Active bond funds: The scale of fixed - income funds grew, and the duration remained high. The number increased continuously, and the scale increased by 1.1% compared with the previous period [13]. - FOF products: FOF funds maintained a high issuance rhythm, and the scale recovered. In Q4, 43 new FOF products were issued, and the total scale increased by about 16.9% compared with Q3 [14][15]. 3.2 Active Equity - Type Funds 3.2.1 Scale and Position Changes - The scale of public - offering active equity funds decreased, and the position decreased slightly. The number reached 4,679, with an increase of 59 compared with Q3. The current scale was 3.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.13% compared with Q3. The position was at 86%, a decrease of about 1% compared with Q3 [19][21][24]. 3.2.2 Industry Allocation Changes - The most heavily held industries were electronics, communication, medicine, power equipment and new energy, and non - ferrous metals. The industries with the most increased allocation were non - ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non - banking finance, and machinery. The industries with the most reduced allocation were medicine, media, computer, electronics, and commercial retail [25][26]. 3.2.3 Sector Allocation Changes - The concepts with the most increased allocation were resource stocks, optical modules, base stations, East - West Computing, pro - cyclical, IDC, optical communication, and communication equipment. The concepts with the most reduced allocation were dual - cycle, self - controllability, advanced manufacturing, 5G applications, and digital economy [29]. 3.2.4 Style Allocation Changes - In Q4, public funds increased their preference for high - elasticity and high - momentum stocks, and further increased their holdings of growth stocks. The volatility of holding stocks decreased significantly, and the number of holding concentrated stocks increased [30][32][33]. 3.2.5 Individual Stock Allocation Changes (A - shares) - The stocks with the highest holding ratio in Q4 were Zhongji Innolight, Xinyisheng, etc. The stocks with the most increased holdings were Zhongji Innolight, Ping An of China, etc., and the stocks with the most reduced holdings were Industrial Fubon, CATL, etc. [34][35]. 3.2.6 Individual Stock Allocation Changes (Hong Kong Stocks) - In 2025Q4, the position in Hong Kong stocks of public funds decreased. The total holding market value was about 305.2 billion yuan, and the weighted total position in Hong Kong stocks was 12.41%, a decrease of 2.04% compared with Q3. The stocks with the most increased holdings were Ping An of China, CNOOC, etc., and the stocks with the most reduced holdings were Alibaba - W, Tencent Holdings, etc. [36][40][41]. 3.2.7 Value - Type Fund Allocation and Views - Value - type funds preferred food and beverages, banks, home appliances, non - banking finance, and media. The newly added industries were non - banking finance, petroleum and petrochemicals, machinery, basic chemicals, and building materials [46]. 3.2.8 Growth - Type Fund Allocation and Views - Growth - type funds preferred electronics, communication, power equipment and new energy, machinery, and automobiles. In 2025Q4, they added positions in communication, non - ferrous metals, machinery, basic chemicals, and power equipment and new energy [49]. 3.3 Active Bond Funds 3.3.1 Scale and Quantity Changes - The scale of fixed - income funds increased, and the duration remained high. The total number was 4,293, an increase of 1.1% compared with Q3. The total scale was about 9.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6% compared with the previous period [57]. 3.3.2 Bond Type Allocation Changes - The allocation ratio of bond - type funds changed little compared with Q3. They increased their holdings of medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, while the proportion of financial bonds, treasury bonds, and corporate short - term financing bonds decreased [58]. 3.3.3 Duration Allocation Changes - In December 2025, the average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was 4.11. In the market where the maturity yield of treasury bonds was declining but the downward space was relatively limited, the duration of bond - type funds remained at a high level [60]. 3.4 FOF Products 3.4.1 Scale and Quantity Changes - FOF funds maintained a high issuance rhythm, and the scale continued to recover. In Q4, 43 new FOF products were issued, and the total scale was about 218.794 billion yuan, an increase of about 16.9% compared with Q3 [65][68]. 3.4.2 Position Changes - They increased their holdings of active bond - type funds, and the proportion of passive bond - type funds and equity - type funds decreased [69][74]. 3.4.3 Target Preference Changes - FOF preferred equity - type funds with strong industry allocation and dynamic trading capabilities, mainly technology - manufacturing - oriented funds. For fixed - income funds, it preferred funds with strong credit management and term structure allocation capabilities [76][78].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the demand for AI computing power will continue to grow and diversify in 2026, extending from data centers to network edges and even internal terminals [8][13][27] - The report highlights the significant capital expenditure (Capex) growth driven by business revenue, with major cloud service providers like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon showing consistent revenue growth exceeding 20% year-on-year [27][31][35] - The report identifies the increasing importance of silicon photonics technology, particularly the 1.6T optical module, which is expected to maintain accelerated growth and enhance the global market share of domestic optical chips and devices [7][54][70] Group 2 - The report discusses the emergence of new technologies such as Scale-UP supernodes and their impact on optical link demand, indicating that these technologies will drive additional link requirements in 2026 [7][9][66] - It notes that the AI infrastructure is experiencing a high level of prosperity, with significant investments in data centers and AI capabilities expected to continue, particularly in the U.S. [47][49][53] - The report anticipates that the integration of silicon photonics will significantly increase its market penetration, projecting that by 2026, over half of optical module sales will come from silicon photonics solutions [70][75]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Yidelong (603380.SH) [3] Core Views - Yidelong is positioned as a leading flexible EMS company globally, entering a new value cycle driven by R&D. The company has over 20 years of experience in the EMS industry, focusing on high-quality, small-batch, and multi-variety production. Key downstream industries include industrial control, communication equipment, medical devices, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics. The company is expanding its R&D efforts and exploring new products like PCB axial flux motors [8][10]. Financial Forecast and Key Metrics - Revenue projections for Yidelong are as follows: - 2024: 2,161 million CNY, growth rate of 12.7% - 2025: 2,498 million CNY, growth rate of 15.6% - 2026: 3,003 million CNY, growth rate of 20.2% - 2027: 3,546 million CNY, growth rate of 18.1% - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2024: 184 million CNY, growth rate of 38.2% - 2025: 241 million CNY, growth rate of 30.9% - 2026: 291 million CNY, growth rate of 20.6% - 2027: 350 million CNY, growth rate of 20.3% - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be: - 2024: 1.15 CNY - 2025: 1.50 CNY - 2026: 1.81 CNY - 2027: 2.18 CNY - Price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 35x - 2025: 27x - 2026: 22x - 2027: 19x - Price-to-book (PB) ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 4.3x - 2025: 4.1x - 2026: 3.6x - 2027: 3.1x [2] Company Overview - Yidelong has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controllers holding 43.59% of the shares. The management team has extensive experience, with key executives having worked in the company for over ten years [20][22]. - The company has established a global production base, including facilities in Mexico, Vietnam, and Romania, allowing for localized supply and reduced costs [51][54]. Industry Insights - The EMS industry is transitioning to a multi-center regional manufacturing model, with significant growth expected in the coming years. The global EMS market is projected to grow from 638.2 billion USD in 2023 to 799 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 4.6% [41][42]. - There are two major trends in the EMS industry: the restructuring of supply chains by international brands seeking partners with R&D capabilities, and the shift from a primarily Asia-Pacific manufacturing model to a more diversified regional approach [42][43].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has shown a positive turnaround in revenue growth, with a cumulative revenue increase of 0.2% year-on-year for 2025, and a net profit increase of 0.3% year-on-year [8]. - The asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08% and a provision coverage ratio of 228.41%, indicating enhanced risk resilience [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from its "light capital, light asset, high efficiency" development model, leveraging its wealth management and investment banking advantages [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: Revenue of 212,226 million, Net Profit of 77,205 million - 2025E: Revenue of 212,741 million, Net Profit of 77,469 million - 2026E: Revenue of 219,804 million, Net Profit of 80,369 million - 2027E: Revenue of 230,555 million, Net Profit of 84,788 million [2][39]. - **Growth Rates**: - Revenue growth rates are projected at 0.2% for 2025, 3.3% for 2026, and 4.9% for 2027 - Net profit growth rates are projected at 0.3% for 2025, 3.7% for 2026, and 5.5% for 2027 [2][39]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS is expected to be 3.52 in 2024, 3.47 in 2025, 3.61 in 2026, and 3.82 in 2027 [2][39]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is projected at 6 for 2025 and 5 for 2026 and 2027 - Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is expected to be 0.5 for 2025 and decrease to 0.4 by 2027 [2][39]. Asset and Liability Management - Total assets grew by 5.6% year-on-year in 2025, with loans increasing by 3.7% - Total liabilities increased by 5.9%, with deposits growing by 7.2% [8]. - The company’s total assets surpassed 11 trillion, supported by significant growth in the broad financial market [8].