Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment outlook for the public utilities and environmental sectors, particularly in the context of recent regulatory changes and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the regulatory measures in various provinces aimed at standardizing the retail price differences in electricity sales, which is expected to stabilize market expectations and improve the profitability of electricity sales companies [3][7]. - It notes the fluctuating natural gas prices globally, with U.S. prices rising while European prices are declining, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape influenced by geopolitical factors and seasonal demand [12][22]. - The report provides specific investment recommendations across various segments, including hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power, green energy, and gas-related companies, reflecting a diversified approach to capitalize on emerging opportunities [10][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Regulation of Retail Price Differences - Guangdong has issued guidelines to regulate the retail price differences, proposing a sharing mechanism for excess profits above a set threshold starting in 2026 [7]. - Several provinces have introduced detailed policies to manage retail price differences, aiming to prevent excessive profits by electricity sales companies and ensure fair pricing for consumers [8][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for a shift from aggressive pricing strategies to a service-oriented business model for electricity sales companies, which could stabilize market expectations [9]. 2. Natural Gas: Global Price Fluctuations - As of November 28, U.S. Henry Hub spot prices reached $4.59/mmBtu, reflecting an 11.13% weekly increase, while European prices, such as TTF, fell by 5.37% to €28.75/MWh [12][13]. - The report notes that U.S. natural gas demand has surged due to cold weather, despite record production levels, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance [16]. - In Northeast Asia, LNG prices have decreased to $10.90/mmBtu, down 6.52% week-on-week, driven by weak demand and high inventory levels [31][34]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Hydropower: Favorable autumn floods are expected to enhance hydropower generation capacity for the winter and spring, with recommendations for major hydropower companies [10]. - Thermal Power: The diversification of revenue sources in thermal power companies is highlighted, with recommendations for integrated coal and power companies [11]. - Nuclear Power: The report suggests focusing on nuclear power companies due to stable cost structures and expected growth from new approvals [11]. - Green Energy: The introduction of new market rules for renewable energy is expected to stabilize returns for green energy operators [11]. - Gas and Environmental Companies: Recommendations include integrated gas trading companies and environmentally focused firms benefiting from regulatory changes [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the defense and military industry, indicating an expectation of strong performance relative to the overall market [3][23]. Core Insights - The report anticipates accelerated task deliveries in Q4, leading to improved performance compared to previous quarters. The upcoming orders during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period are expected to be a catalyst for investment [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving increased demand for consumable military equipment and military trade, presenting significant investment opportunities. The global military trade market has shown a notable expansion in potential demand for Chinese military equipment, particularly in the Middle East and Asia [3]. - The report suggests a focus on new main battle equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [3]. - The military industry is entering a new cycle of quality improvement and growth, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in performance expected in Q4, with military orders experiencing a pulse-like growth since Q1 of this year [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Industry Index rose by 2.85%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 1.52%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.64%. The Shenwan Defense and Military Industry Index underperformed the ChiNext Index but outperformed the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite Index [4][10]. - The average increase in the CSI Civil-Military Integration Index was 4.97%, indicating strong performance in this segment [4]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector last week were: - Saiwei Electronics (44.85%) - TeFa Information (34.07%) - Leike Defense (32.3%) - Aerospace Power (32.22%) - Zhongtian Rocket (21.6%) [10]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - Beihua Co. (-11.59%) - Guorui Technology (-4.84%) - Yaxing Anchor Chain (-3.56%) - Chenxi Aviation (-3.2%) - Aileda (-2.71%) [11]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 77.60, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.76% since January 2014 and 92.45% since January 2019. The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to be at relatively high valuation levels since 2020 [12][16].

2025 年 12 月 01 日 大股票池配置仍偏价值, PPI 关注 升至最高 -量化资产配置月报 202512 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensv@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denqhu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 大股票池配置仍偏价值。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现回升、流动性略偏紧，信用 指标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）继续向上但强度未触发修正，而流动性、信用都 修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向为经济好转、流动性偏弱和信用收缩。本期我们主要 按照对经济敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三的因子，成长的宏观得分偏低，宏观部分 选择以价值、低波为主；沪深 300、中证 500 中价值都为共振因子，中证 500 中不再配 置成长，而中证 1000 成长得分仍靠前。 大类资产配置观点：黄金配置比例再次提高。目前经济上行、流动性偏紧、信用收缩，债 ● 券的观点偏弱，黄金由于动量回升重新配置到上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [23]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to see accelerated task deliveries in Q4, with a potential increase in orders towards the end of the year, serving as a catalyst for investment [3]. - Geopolitical uncertainties are driving demand for consumable military equipment and military trade, presenting significant investment opportunities [3]. - The report highlights a strong correlation between supply and demand in the global military trade market, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, which is expected to continue [3]. - Key investment areas include new main battle equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of specific stocks within the military sector, particularly those related to high-end combat capabilities and new quality combat forces [3]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index rose by 2.85%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index increased by 1.52%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.64% [4][11]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector were: - Saiwei Electronics (44.85%) - TeFa Information (34.07%) - Leike Defense (32.3%) - Aerospace Power (32.22%) - Zhongtian Rocket (21.6%) [11]. - Conversely, the bottom five performing stocks were: - Beihua Co. (-11.59%) - Guorui Technology (-4.84%) - Yaxing Anchor Chain (-3.56%) - Chenxi Aviation (-3.2%) - Aileda (-2.71%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Military Sector is 77.60, indicating it is in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 65.76% since January 2014 and 92.45% since January 2019 [12][13]. - The report notes a slight differentiation in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [12].

2025 年 12 月 01 日 大股票池配置仍偏价值，PPI 关注度 升至最高 ——量化资产配置月报 202512 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 ⚫ 大股票池配置仍偏价值。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现回升、流动性略偏紧，信用 指标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）继续向上但强度未触发修正，而流动性、信用都 修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向为经济好转、流动性偏弱和信用收缩。本期我们主要 按照对经济敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三的因子，成长的宏观得分偏低，宏观部分 选择以价值、低波为主；沪深 300、中证 500 中价值都为共振因子，中证 500 中不再配 置成长，而中证 1000 成长得分仍靠前。 ⚫ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [16]. Core Insights - Natural gas demand is expected to recover in 2026 after a significant slowdown in 2025, with global demand growth projected at 2% [6][10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply-demand balance in the downstream polyester sector, with improved outlooks for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [16]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize, with a neutral outlook for 2026, while companies like China Petroleum and CNOOC are recommended for their high dividend yields [16]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Market - Global natural gas demand growth for 2025 is projected at only 0.5%, primarily driven by Europe, while Asian demand remains flat [6]. - In 2026, demand growth is expected to recover to 2%, with Asia-Pacific leading the increase at around 5% [6][10]. - Current low inventory levels in Europe and Japan are anticipated to support relatively strong gas prices during the heating season [8]. Oil Market - Brent crude oil prices have shown a slight increase, closing at $63.20 per barrel, while WTI prices reached $58.55 per barrel [20]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of active oil rigs in the U.S., indicating a potential slowdown in production growth [29]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 790,000 barrels per day in 2025, with the U.S., China, and Nigeria being the main contributors [42]. Petrochemical Sector - The downstream polyester sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with recommendations for companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [16]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is seeing improved margins, with domestic refining margins increasing by 244 RMB/ton month-on-month [50]. - Ethylene prices in Northeast Asia have stabilized, while the price spread between ethylene and naphtha has increased, indicating favorable conditions for ethylene production [59][62].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [3]. Core Insights - Natural gas demand is expected to recover, with short-term price stability anticipated due to low inventory levels during the heating season of 2025-2026. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a global natural gas demand growth of 2% in 2026, with Asia-Pacific demand potentially reaching 5% [5][6][8]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a mixed trend, with oil prices showing a slight increase while drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms are rising. Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.20 per barrel, reflecting a 1.02% increase week-on-week [5][23]. - The refining sector is seeing a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin spreads are increasing. The Singapore refining margin for major products dropped to $19.61 per barrel, a decrease of $7.03 from the previous week [5][60]. - The polyester sector is witnessing a mixed performance, with PTA profitability rising while polyester filament profitability is declining. The PTA price in East China averaged 4625 RMB per ton, down 0.04% week-on-week [5][57]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil futures closed at $63.20 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 1.02%. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory rose to 427 million barrels, up 2.78 million barrels from the previous week [5][23][25]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased to 544, down 10 rigs week-on-week and 38 rigs year-on-year [34][37]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was reported at $19.61 per barrel, down $7.03 from the previous week. The U.S. gasoline RBOB-WTI spread was $17.96 per barrel, slightly up from the previous week [5][60][65]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price in Asia was reported at $827.37 per ton, down 0.22% week-on-week. The PTA-PX spread increased to 266.40 USD/ton, up 7.05 USD/ton from the previous week [5][57]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as large refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical due to expected improvements in profitability [5][18].

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has initiated a pilot program for commercial real estate REITs, indicating significant development potential for this sector. The market for public REITs in China is estimated to exceed 10 trillion yuan, with the current market size at 219.9 billion yuan, of which commercial real estate accounts for 130.9 billion yuan [12][27]. - The planned commercial real estate REITs will create a multi-tiered market for asset securitization, which will help to broaden financing channels for enterprises, optimize capital structures, and facilitate strategic transformations from developers to asset managers [12][27]. - The commercial real estate REITs are seen as a key practice for constructing a new development model in the real estate sector, focusing on quality and sustainability rather than mere quantity [12][27]. Group 2: Internet and Media Industry - Core consumer brands in the internet and media sector, such as gaming companies and lifestyle brands, are currently trading at a PE ratio below 20x for 2026, indicating a high margin of safety for investors. The structural consumption trend among young users in China remains a significant growth driver [11][12]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a demographic shift, with Generation Z users making up 65% of the market, and there is untapped potential in female-oriented gaming content. Companies like Giant Network are expected to benefit from this trend [11][12]. - The music industry is also highlighted as a growth area, with stable demand for subscription services among young users, and companies are expected to enhance their bargaining power in the face of a fragmented rights market [15]. Group 3: Energy Sector - Guangzhou Development (600098.SH) is positioned as a comprehensive energy service provider, with a diversified business model covering electricity, energy logistics, gas, and renewable energy. The company reported a net profit of 2.159 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.1% [14][19]. - The company has a strong dividend history, with a payout ratio consistently above 50% over the past three years, and plans to increase dividends further in 2025 [14][19]. - The energy sector is expected to benefit from stable pricing in coal and gas power generation, with ongoing projects set to enhance profitability [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [3][13] Core Insights - Meituan reported Q3 2025 revenue of Rmb95.5 billion, a 2.0% year-on-year increase, but below consensus expectations of Rmb97.5 billion. The operating profit was Rmb-19.76 billion, significantly lower than Rmb13.69 billion in the same period last year [8][9] - The report indicates that industry competition has peaked, with core local commerce experiencing significant losses in Q3 but expected sequential improvement in Q4. Core local commerce revenue declined by 2.8% year-on-year to Rmb67.4 billion, with an operating margin of -20.9% [9][10] - Meituan Instashopping achieved strong growth, leading the industry, with a focus on enhancing supply and user engagement. The platform launched "Branded Flagship InstaMart," which saw a 300% sales increase on its first day during the "11.11" shopping event [10][11] - New initiatives showed improved profitability, with revenue from new initiatives rising 15.9% year-on-year to Rmb28.0 billion, although operating losses widened to Rmb1.3 billion. Keeta, a new initiative, achieved profitability in Hong Kong ahead of schedule [11][12] Financial Summary - For 2023, Meituan's revenue is projected at Rmb276.7 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.8%. Adjusted net profit is expected to be Rmb23.3 billion [6][16] - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to Rmb-16.6 billion, reflecting the impact of intensified competition on short-term margins [13][16] - The report anticipates a long-term recovery in profitability, with a projected revenue of Rmb365.98 billion in 2025 and Rmb485.30 billion by 2027 [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a favorable investment rating to the company, with an AHP score of 3.49 and 3.12, placing it in the upper tier of the AHP model within the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in high-performance GPU development, with a fully autonomous R&D and production capability, and a product matrix that integrates both hardware and software [11][15]. - The company has established a comprehensive ecosystem termed "1+6+X," focusing on various vertical industries and rapidly expanding its market presence [19][20]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI computing power, with significant investments aimed at enhancing its GPU offerings and market share [22][23]. Summary by Sections AHP Score and Expected Allocation Ratio - The AHP score indicates a strong position within the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, with scores reflecting a favorable ranking [2][7]. Company Fundamentals and Highlights - The founding team has a strong background from international firms, enabling breakthroughs in high-performance GPU technology [11]. - The product structure is evolving towards high-end offerings, with the training and inference integrated products accounting for 98% of revenue in Q1 2025 [11][12]. - The company has developed a proprietary software stack, MXMACA, which supports a wide range of applications and enhances compatibility with existing ecosystems [17][18]. Financial Comparison with Peers - The company has a smaller revenue scale compared to peers, with continuous losses, but has maintained a higher gross margin than the average of comparable companies [27][31]. - R&D expenditures have been significant, with rates exceeding those of comparable firms, reflecting a commitment to innovation [35][36]. Fundraising Projects and Development Vision - The company plans to use raised funds for the development of new high-performance GPUs and AI inference chips, aiming to strengthen its market position [39][41]. - The anticipated projects include the second and third generation of general-purpose GPUs, which are expected to enhance the company's competitive edge in the AI market [41][42].