Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Views - The company has successfully completed a placement to introduce strategic investors and is increasing its investment in artificial intelligence (AI) and other technology sectors, reinforcing its AI-first strategy and outlook for value recovery [2][10]. - The company plans to use approximately 70% of the net proceeds from the placement for long-term funding in AI, cloud, and industrial software development, while the remaining 30% will be allocated for general working capital [10]. - The board has proposed changing the company's registered location to Hong Kong, which is expected to simplify compliance and enhance investor confidence [10]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 8,294 million RMB in 2023 to 11,001 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [4]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly from 202 million RMB in 2023 to 892 million RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 69.9% in 2023 and 90.8% in 2024 [4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 38.13 in 2023 to 8.71 by 2027, indicating improving profitability [4]. Market Data - The current stock price is 7.32 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 8,935 million HKD [1][7]. - The stock has traded within a range of 3.07 to 10.83 HKD over the past 52 weeks [7]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.34 RMB in 2024 to 0.77 RMB in 2027 [10][13]. - The expected net profit for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 553 million RMB, 703 million RMB, and 892 million RMB, respectively [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][10]. Core Insights - The company's same-store sales continue to improve, driven by pricing jewelry and its first entry into the Vietnamese market [2][3]. - The company plans to increase its overseas store count and expand into at least three new countries over the next three years [10]. Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company reported revenue of HKD 6.843 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%, with a gross profit of HKD 2.373 billion, up 33.2% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 34.7% [10]. - The operating profit reached HKD 780 million, reflecting a 45.4% year-on-year increase, with an operating margin of 11.4% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 619 million, a 42.5% increase year-on-year, with a net margin of 8.8% [10]. Same-Store Sales and Market Expansion - Overall same-store sales increased by 7.7% year-on-year in FY26H1, with gold and platinum same-store sales up 2.7% and pricing jewelry same-store sales up 22.2% [10]. - The company plans to add 20 new stores overseas in FY26 and aims to increase its global store count [10]. Profitability and Cost Management - The gross margin improved to 34.7%, benefiting from rising gold prices and an increased proportion of pricing jewelry sales [10]. - The sales expense ratio decreased to 16.3%, and the administrative expense ratio fell to 2.7%, indicating effective cost management [10]. Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for FY26, FY27, and FY28 is HKD 1.578 billion, HKD 1.800 billion, and HKD 1.977 billion, respectively [10]. - The report assigns a target price of HKD 40.35 based on a 15x PE ratio for FY26 [10].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The BL model is an improvement over the traditional mean-variance optimization (MVO) model. It integrates subjective views with quantitative models using Bayesian theory to optimize asset allocation weights. This approach addresses the sensitivity of MVO to expected returns and provides a more robust asset allocation solution[12][13]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The BL model combines subjective views of investors with market equilibrium returns to derive optimized portfolio weights. - The model uses the following formula to calculate the posterior expected returns: $ \mu = [( \tau \Sigma )^{-1} + P^T \Omega^{-1} P]^{-1} [( \tau \Sigma )^{-1} \Pi + P^T \Omega^{-1} Q] $ - $\mu$: Posterior expected returns - $\tau$: Scalar representing the uncertainty in the prior estimate of returns - $\Sigma$: Covariance matrix of asset returns - $\Pi$: Equilibrium returns derived from market capitalization weights - $P$: Matrix representing the views on assets - $\Omega$: Covariance matrix of the views - $Q$: Vector of expected returns based on the views - The optimized portfolio weights are then derived using the posterior expected returns and the covariance matrix[12][13]. - **Model Evaluation**: The BL model effectively addresses the sensitivity of MVO to expected returns and provides a more robust and efficient asset allocation framework. It also allows for the incorporation of subjective views, making it more flexible and practical for real-world applications[12]. 2. Model Name: Risk Parity Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The risk parity model aims to equalize the risk contribution of each asset in a portfolio. It is an improvement over the traditional mean-variance optimization model and focuses on diversifying risk rather than capital allocation[17][18]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Step 1: Select appropriate underlying assets. - Step 2: Calculate the risk contribution of each asset to the portfolio using the formula: $ RC_i = w_i \cdot \sigma_i \cdot \rho_{i,portfolio} $ - $RC_i$: Risk contribution of asset $i$ - $w_i$: Weight of asset $i$ - $\sigma_i$: Volatility of asset $i$ - $\rho_{i,portfolio}$: Correlation of asset $i$ with the portfolio - Step 3: Solve the optimization problem to minimize the deviation between actual and target risk contributions, subject to the constraint that the sum of weights equals 1[18][19]. - **Model Evaluation**: The risk parity model provides a balanced risk allocation across assets, making it suitable for achieving stable returns across different economic cycles. It is particularly effective in reducing portfolio volatility and drawdowns[18]. 3. Model Name: Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model constructs a macro factor system covering six key risks: growth, inflation, interest rates, credit, exchange rates, and liquidity. It bridges macroeconomic research with asset allocation by translating macroeconomic views into actionable portfolio strategies[21][22]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Step 1: Calculate the factor exposure levels of assets at the end of each month. - Step 2: Use a risk parity portfolio as the benchmark and calculate the benchmark factor exposure. - Step 3: Based on macroeconomic forecasts for the next month, assign subjective factor deviation values. For example, if inflation is expected to rise, assign a positive deviation to the inflation factor. - Step 4: Combine the benchmark factor exposure with the subjective factor deviations to derive the target factor exposure for the portfolio. - Step 5: Solve the optimization problem to determine the asset allocation weights for the next month[22][25]. - **Model Evaluation**: This model effectively incorporates macroeconomic views into asset allocation, providing a systematic framework for translating macroeconomic insights into portfolio decisions. It is particularly useful for capturing macroeconomic trends and their impact on asset performance[21]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Black-Litterman (BL) Model - **Domestic Asset BL Model 1**: Weekly return: -0.32%, November return: 0.05%, 2025 YTD return: 4.0%, annualized volatility: 2.18%, maximum drawdown: 1.31%[14][16][17] - **Domestic Asset BL Model 2**: Weekly return: -0.15%, November return: 0.08%, 2025 YTD return: 3.77%, annualized volatility: 1.95%, maximum drawdown: 1.06%[14][16][17] - **Global Asset BL Model 1**: Weekly return: -0.17%, November return: -0.26%, 2025 YTD return: 0.78%, annualized volatility: 2.0%, maximum drawdown: 1.64%[14][16][17] - **Global Asset BL Model 2**: Weekly return: 0.01%, November return: 0.08%, 2025 YTD return: 2.7%, annualized volatility: 1.59%, maximum drawdown: 1.28%[14][16][17] 2. Risk Parity Model - **Domestic Asset Risk Parity Model**: Weekly return: -0.27%, November return: -0.09%, 2025 YTD return: 3.6%, annualized volatility: 1.32%, maximum drawdown: 0.76%[20][28] - **Global Asset Risk Parity Model**: Weekly return: -0.2%, November return: -0.07%, 2025 YTD return: 3.04%, annualized volatility: 1.42%, maximum drawdown: 1.2%[20][28] 3. Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model - **Macro Factor-Based Asset Allocation Model**: Weekly return: -0.31%, November return: -0.01%, 2025 YTD return: 4.43%, annualized volatility: 1.55%, maximum drawdown: 0.64%[27][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 17.08 CNY [6][13]. Core Insights - The company is continuously optimizing its business structure, leading to improved operational quality and successful expansion into new businesses, particularly in AI, HarmonyOS, and international markets, which are expected to drive new growth [2][13]. - The company has secured a significant amount of new business contracts, totaling approximately 350 million CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, particularly in agriculture, energy, and chemicals [13]. - The company has received certification as an excellent architecture partner from Alibaba Cloud, enhancing its collaboration in cloud solutions and addressing challenges related to data compliance and operational efficiency for enterprises going overseas [13]. - The company is deepening its involvement in the HarmonyOS ecosystem, having launched a joint innovation solution for the financial sector with Huawei and other leading service providers [13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 6,601 million CNY in 2023 to 8,533 million CNY in 2027, with annual growth rates of 1.9%, 4.5%, 5.1%, 7.7%, and 9.3% respectively [4][14]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to fluctuate, with a decrease to 124 million CNY in 2024, followed by a recovery to 216 million CNY in 2025 and further growth to 333 million CNY by 2027 [4][14]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.21 CNY in 2024, recovering to 0.37 CNY in 2025 and reaching 0.57 CNY by 2027 [4][14]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 3.0% in 2024 to 6.6% in 2027 [4][14]. Market Data - The current stock price is 13.79 CNY, with a market capitalization of 8,072 million CNY [7][13]. - The stock has a 52-week price range of 10.65 CNY to 16.94 CNY [7]. - The company has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 37.14 based on the current price and diluted share capital [4][15].

Investment Chain - Since November, prices of tin, silver, and gold have increased. In October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to -1.70%, with real estate development investment declining by 14.70%. Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate fell to 2.7%, and infrastructure investment growth rate decreased to 1.51% [7][8] - In November 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while the price of thermal coal slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. The average price of ordinary cement has risen, and steel prices have decreased [7][8] Consumer Chain - The consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. In October 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.90%, with a cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate decline of 4.30%. The sales area of commercial housing in October saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -7.63% [8][9] - In October 2025, automobile sales decreased by 8.82% year-on-year, and home appliance retail sales fell by 10.25% year-on-year. In December 2024, tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year, while in March 2024, tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% [8][9] Export Chain - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States increased, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. Cumulative year-on-year growth rates for refined oil, coke, and shipbuilding increased, while exports of agricultural products, toys, furniture, lighting, coal, steel, plastics, auto parts, and aluminum decreased [9][10] - The export amount year-on-year growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports decreasing by 9.10% and machinery exports declining by 1.10% [9][10] Price Chain - In November, pork prices decreased, and oil prices also saw a decline. As of November 25, 2025, WTI crude oil price fell to 57.95 USD/barrel. The price of PVC dropped to 4400 RMB/ton, while the price of pure MDI rose to 19350 RMB/ton and the price of polymer MDI decreased to 14550 RMB/ton [10][11]

股 营收增幅进一步提升，利润增速由负转正 工商银行(601398) 工商银行 2025 年三季报点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 陈惠琴(分析师) | 021-38676666 | chenhuiqin@gtht.com | S0880525100003 | 本报告导读： 工商银行三季度利润增速由负转正，营收延续良好增长势头，手续费及佣金收入逐 季回暖，其他非息收入表现亮眼，资产质量保持稳健。 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要（百万元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 843,070 | 821,803 | 833,520 | 857,395 | 897,469 | | (+/-)% | -3.7% | - ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [6][13]. Core Views - The company's operational efficiency is steadily improving, with gross margins and operating cash flow showing quarterly enhancements. The innovation and digital transformation are progressing steadily, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [2][13]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 8,540 million, with a decline of 44.8% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 643 million, down 76.6% [4][14]. - For 2025, total revenue is estimated at 6,201 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.8%. The net profit is projected to be -35 million, showing a significant recovery of 90.8% compared to 2024 [4][14]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at -0.08 yuan, with a recovery to 0.91 yuan in 2026 and 1.20 yuan in 2027 [4][14]. Operational Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4,538 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19.23%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -8 million, down 184.84% [13]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 1,541 million, a decrease of 11.32%, but a net profit of 0.05 million, marking a 24.08% increase [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively participating in the construction of medical communities, with 21 projects signed in the first three quarters. The revenue from community benefit projects grew by 53.8% year-on-year [13]. - The digital transformation is advancing, with significant user engagement in the smart medical platform, achieving over 599 million report interpretations and 140,000 monthly active users by the end of Q3 [13]. Valuation and Target Price - The target price is set at 36.40 yuan, based on a 2026 price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 40 times, reflecting the company's leading position in the industry and the potential of its digital transformation [6][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 78.50 CNY based on a 25x PE for 2025 [3][9]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 increased by 39.6%, with a gross margin improvement of 8.8 percentage points [2][4]. - The company signed new projects worth 3.163 billion CNY, focusing on expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Southeast Asia and other international markets [2][6]. - The report projects an increase in EPS for 2025-2027 to 3.14, 4.40, and 5.30 CNY, reflecting growth rates of 5.2%, 40.5%, and 20.2% respectively [3][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 3.11 billion CNY, a decrease of 29.6% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million CNY, an increase of 0.8% [4]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was reported at 21.8%, with a net profit margin of 14.2% [4]. - The company experienced a decrease in operating cash flow, with a net inflow of 1.07 billion CNY for Q1-Q3 2025, down from 1.34 billion CNY in the same period of 2024 [5]. Market Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its overseas market efforts, having established a wholly-owned subsidiary in Singapore to enhance its presence in Southeast Asia [6]. - The domestic semiconductor capital expenditure continues to grow, indicating an increase in customer demand, which is expected to drive sustained order growth for the company [6]. - The report highlights that the new projects won are primarily large-scale projects, with significant installation activities expected to commence in the third quarter [6].

Macro Research - The report highlights a unique economic condition in the US characterized by "weak employment + strong growth," indicating a historical disconnection between employment and economic growth. The average annual growth rate of the labor force is projected to be only 0.3-0.5% over the next decade, significantly lower than the 1.3% observed in the past five years [1][16] - The report identifies high interest rates as the primary reason for the employment slowdown, followed by the adverse effects of labor hoarding during the pandemic. The impact of artificial intelligence on employment is deemed negligible, while the effects of reduced immigration and government layoffs are considered limited [2][16] - The strong economic growth is attributed to the marginal productivity decline of labor, with significant employment growth occurring in low-GDP-contributing sectors like education and healthcare. Capital expansion driven by AI investment and its wealth effect is seen as the main driver of US economic growth [2][17] Military Industry Research - The military sector experienced a decline recently, with the US Navy initiating recovery operations for two aircraft that crashed in the South China Sea. The report notes that the military industry remains on a long-term upward trend due to increasing geopolitical tensions [4][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of advanced military technology and equipment in modern warfare, suggesting a focus on aerospace and satellite internet sectors as key areas for investment [7] Automotive Industry Research - The Guangzhou International Auto Show showcased a strong focus on electrification and intelligence, with 629 out of 1,085 vehicles displayed being new energy vehicles, accounting for 58% of the total [8][9] - Companies like XPeng and Changan presented their latest advancements in embodied intelligence, indicating a shift towards integrating robotics into automotive design and functionality [8][9] - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the automotive sector, with a focus on product definition, technological self-research, and systematic capabilities as key competitive factors moving forward [11][9]

Group 1: Fixed Income + Product Performance Tracking - As of November 21, 2025, the total market size of fixed income + funds reached 21,846.96 billion, with 1,151 products, and 23 products achieved historical net value highs last week [2][20] - The median performance of various fund types for the week of November 17-21, 2025, showed mixed results: mixed bond type I (-0.04%), mixed bond type II (-0.72%), and flexible allocation type (-0.60%) [2][13] - The median returns for conservative, balanced, and aggressive funds were -0.13%, -0.59%, and -0.93%, respectively [2][13] Group 2: Major Asset Allocation and Industry ETF Rotation Strategy Tracking - The macro environment forecast for Q4 2025 indicates inflation, with the Shanghai Composite Index, China Government Bond Total Wealth Index, and AU9999 contract yielding -4.03%, -0.10%, and 0.63% respectively since November [3] - Recommended industry ETFs for November 2025 include semiconductor, securities companies, communication equipment, new energy vehicle batteries, and animation game ETFs, with a weekly return of -5.15% and a cumulative return of -7.92% for the month [3] Group 3: Absolute Return Strategy Performance Tracking - The macro timing-driven stock-bond 20/80 rebalancing strategy yielded -0.38% last week, with a year-to-date return of 4.84% [4] - The small-cap growth style within the stock-bond 20/80 combination showed a notable annual return of 10.57%, while the PB earnings, high dividend, and small-cap value strategies returned 4.35%, 3.81%, and 10.20% respectively [4] - The cumulative return for the small-cap growth combination based on a macro momentum model was 12.70% [4]