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风格Smart beta组合跟踪周报(2026.02.02-2026.02.06)-20260209
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 11:14
- The report discusses the construction of **Smart Beta portfolios** based on three styles: value, growth, and small-cap. These portfolios are designed with the objectives of high beta elasticity and long-term stable excess returns. The portfolios include "50 portfolios" and "balanced 50 portfolios" for each style[5] - The **Value Smart Beta portfolios** include the "Value 50 Portfolio" and the "Value Balanced 50 Portfolio". Their weekly returns were 0.19% and 0.22%, respectively, with annual returns of 0.70% and 8.68% since the beginning of the year[3][6][8] - The **Growth Smart Beta portfolios** include the "Growth 50 Portfolio" and the "Growth Balanced 50 Portfolio". Their weekly returns were -2.53% and -1.95%, respectively, with annual returns of 1.29% and 6.55% since the beginning of the year[3][6][16] - The **Small-Cap Smart Beta portfolios** include the "Small-Cap 50 Portfolio" and the "Small-Cap Balanced 50 Portfolio". Their weekly returns were 1.71% and -0.52%, respectively, with annual returns of 11.72% and 9.49% since the beginning of the year[3][6][20] - The **performance metrics** for these portfolios include absolute returns, excess returns relative to their benchmarks, and maximum relative drawdowns. For example, the "Small-Cap 50 Portfolio" achieved an excess return of 3.45% over the benchmark "CNI 2000" index during the week, with a maximum relative drawdown of 3.08%[6][20]
腾景科技深度报告OCS核心厂商,AI光通信驱动发展
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 10:25
投资要点: OCS 核心厂商,AI 光通信驱动发展 腾景科技(688195) 腾景科技深度报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 余伟民(分析师) | 010-50949926 | yuweimin@gtht.com | S0880525040028 | | 王彦龙(分析师) | 010-83939775 | wangyanlong@gtht.com | S0880519100003 | | 舒迪(分析师) | 021-38676666 | shudi@gtht.com | S0880521070002 | | 吴小沛(研究助理) | 021-23187269 | wuxiaopei@gtht.com | S0880125042240 | 本报告导读: 光通信与新兴业务高速增长,OCS 市场呈现高速增长态势,主要受 AI 集群和高性 能计算需求推动。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- ...
腾景科技(688195):腾景科技深度报告:OCS核心厂商,AI光通信驱动发展
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 09:33
Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 262.35 CNY, compared to the current price of 221.01 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the rapid growth in the optical communication market driven by AI computing demands, with projected revenues of 5.92 billion CNY, 7.68 billion CNY, and 9.81 billion CNY for 2025-2027 [10]. - The net profit forecast for the same period is 870 million CNY, 1.28 billion CNY, and 1.71 billion CNY, with earnings per share (EPS) of 0.68 CNY, 0.99 CNY, and 1.32 CNY respectively [10]. - The company has a strong focus on optical communication and has diversified its product offerings, including precision optical components, fiber optic devices, and optical testing instruments [14][29]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 340 million CNY in 2023 to 981 million CNY in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.8% [4]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 42 million CNY in 2023 to 171 million CNY in 2027, with a significant growth rate of 33.8% in the final year [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to rise from 4.6% in 2023 to 14.5% in 2027 [4]. Market Trends - The optical communication sector is experiencing rapid growth, primarily driven by the demand for AI clusters and high-performance computing [2][10]. - The global optical module market is expected to reach approximately 25 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 15% from 2023 to 2029, largely fueled by strong demand from AI applications [10]. - The OCS market is identified as a key area for growth, with its practical value in AI computing scenarios being highlighted [10]. Company Development - The company has established a solid foundation in the optical field, with a focus on technological innovation and a diverse product range [14][15]. - It has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with a management team that has extensive industry experience [17][20]. - Recent strategic moves include the acquisition of XunT Technology to enhance its optical module product scale and capabilities [26][27].
每日报告精选(2026-02-06 09:00——2026-02-09 15:00)-20260209
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 08:23
目 录 | | 每日报告精选(2026-02-06 09:00——2026-02-09 15:00) 3 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 宏观周报:《春节效应延续》2026-02-08 3 | | | | 宏观周报:《美国:制造业景气度超季节回升》2026-02-08 3 | | | | 策略周报:《坚定信心,持股过节》2026-02-08 3 | | | | 策略专题报告:《地方两会聚焦扩内需与强科技》2026-02-08 4 | | | | 策略观察:《成交活跃度下降,万得全 估值微跌》2026-02-08 5 A | | | | 行业跟踪报告:餐饮《千问加码外卖补贴,行业价格战趋缓》2026-02-09 6 | | | | 行业跟踪报告:钢铁《淡季维持累库趋势,但库存处于历史低位》2026-02-09 7 | | | | 行业跟踪报告:有色金属《关注企稳后的布局机会》2026-02-09 7 | | | | 行业跟踪报告:钢铁《钢铁行业周报数据库 20260208》2026-02-09 8 | | | | 行业周报:金融《建议左侧增持非银板 ...
有色金属:关注企稳后的布局机会
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 05:15
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal price trends [2] - The report highlights the need to focus on investment opportunities following stabilization in the market [8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 8.51% last week, underperforming major indices [14][16] 2. Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices decreased by 3.45% to 100,100 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices fell by 5.07% to 23,315 CNY/ton [24] - SHFE gold prices dropped by 8.92% to 1,090.12 CNY/gram, while COMEX gold rose by 5.13% to 4,988.60 USD/ounce [26] - SHFE silver prices decreased by 37.17% to 18,799 CNY/kg, with COMEX silver down by 1.28% to 77.53 USD/ounce [26] 3. Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks key macroeconomic indicators, including the U.S. CPI and PCE, which show a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and 2.79%, respectively [29][30] - China's CPI and PPI for December were reported at 0.8% and -1.9%, respectively [30] 4. Precious Metals: Low Inventory Disturbances - The report notes that low inventory levels continue to disrupt precious metal prices, with significant fluctuations observed in both gold and silver markets [52][53] 5. Copper: Price Fluctuations - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to fluctuate, with supply-side adjustments and demand dynamics playing crucial roles [65][72] 6. Aluminum: Price Adjustments - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to macroeconomic sentiment and seasonal demand fluctuations, with a noted decrease in processing rates [10][80] 7. Energy Metals: Strong Demand - The report highlights robust demand for energy metals, particularly lithium, despite some price pressures due to macroeconomic factors [89][92] 8. Rare Earths: Price Trends - Prices for rare earth elements, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxides, continue to rise, supported by tight supply conditions [11]
现制饮品行业跟踪报告:千问加码外卖补贴,行业价格战趋缓
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 05:11
股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.09 千问加码外卖补贴,行业价格战趋缓 [Table_Industry] 餐饮 [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 现制饮品行业跟踪报告 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读: 现制饮品外卖补贴持续,预计春节高景气度;同时行业价格战趋缓,竞争格局优化。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 餐饮《餐饮引领复苏,产业链协同发展》 2024.03.31 投资要点: 研 究 报 告 证 券 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 股 票 研 究 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 [Table_Summary] 投资建议:现制饮品外卖补贴持续,预计春节高景气度;同时行业 价格战趋缓,竞争格局优化。推荐:古茗、蜜雪集团、瑞幸咖 ...
TCL 中环:推进适度一体化战略,BC技术专利优势逐渐显现-20260209
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 02:45
推进适度一体化战略,BC 技术专利优势逐渐显现 TCL 中环(002129) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 徐强(分析师) | 010-83939805 | xuqiang@gtht.com | S0880517040002 | | 吴志鹏(分析师) | 021-23215736 | wuzhipeng@gtht.com | S0880525070004 | 本报告导读: 25 年业绩仍有所承压,围绕公司 BC 的技术和专利优势,加速一体化战略布局。 投资要点: | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 59,146 | 28,419 | 27,037 | 43,956 | 56,183 | | (+/-)% | -11.7% | -52.0% | -4.9% | 62.6% | 27.8% | | 净利润(归母) ...
兴瑞科技首次覆盖报告精密嵌塑翘楚,战略拓展新兴行业
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 02:45
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][4][23]. Core Insights - The company is a leading precision manufacturing enterprise in China, focusing on automotive electronics and actively expanding into emerging businesses, indicating significant growth potential [1][10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 16.26 billion, 19.8 billion, and 24.82 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -14.5%, 21.7%, and 25.3% respectively [14][18]. - The target price for 2026 is set at 32.11 yuan, based on a comprehensive valuation using PE and PB methods [14][23]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,006 million yuan, with a net profit of 267 million yuan, translating to an EPS of 0.90 yuan [3][11]. - The company expects a decline in revenue in 2024 to 1,902 million yuan, followed by a decrease to 1,626 million yuan in 2025, before recovering in subsequent years [3][11]. - The net profit is anticipated to drop to 229 million yuan in 2024 and further to 143 million yuan in 2025, with a recovery to 204 million yuan in 2026 and 282 million yuan in 2027 [3][11]. Business Segments - The company has a diverse product matrix, including electronic connectors, structural components, and insert-molded parts, widely used in new energy vehicle electrical systems, smart terminals, and consumer electronics [10][24]. - The automotive electronics segment is expected to generate revenues of 7.29 billion, 10.20 billion, and 14.29 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of -30%, 40%, and 40% respectively [15][18]. - The smart terminal product line is projected to achieve revenues of 4.63 billion, 5.09 billion, and 5.85 billion yuan during the same period, with growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 15% [16][18]. - Consumer electronics revenue is expected to reach 1.33 billion, 1.40 billion, and 1.47 billion yuan, with a consistent growth rate of 5% [17][18]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding into the liquid cooling industry through a partnership with Green Cloud, focusing on advanced technology development and product manufacturing [10][24]. - The company has established a global business layout with factories in multiple locations, including Ningbo, Suzhou, Wuxi, Dongguan, Vietnam, and Indonesia, ensuring a robust supply chain [10][24]. - The company is committed to high R&D investment, focusing on new energy vehicle components and smart home systems, which are expected to drive future growth [35][36].
钢研高纳:首次覆盖报告高温合金龙头,军民共振驱动长期成长-20260209
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 02:45
高温合金龙头,军民共振驱动长期成长 钢研高纳(300034) | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宋博(分析师) | 010-83939829 | songbo3@gtht.com | S0880522120007 | | 杨天昊(分析师) | 010-83939791 | yangtianhao@gtht.com | S0880523080010 | 本报告导读: 公司是国内高温合金领域龙头,实控人为国务院国资委,核心产品覆盖航空航天等 多领域,受益于航空航天领域需求高景气与技术自主可控,业绩有望稳健增长。 钢研高纳首次覆盖报告 投资要点: | | | 金属,采矿,制品 [Table_Industry] /原材料 | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格(元): | 28.05 | | [当前价格: Table_CurPrice] (元) | 20.61 | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 14 ...
人民银行42号文,证监会1号文点评:境内虚拟货币违法,境外RWA监管明晰
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-02-09 02:45
人民银行 42 号文,证监会 1 号文点评 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | 孙坤(分析师) | 021-38038260 | sunkun@gtht.com | S0880523030001 | 境内虚拟货币违法,境外 RWA 监管明晰 [Table_Industry] 综合金融 本报告导读: 虚拟货币再迎新规,境内发行虚拟货币仍是违法行为,境外开展 RWA 监管明确, 相关中介机构及具备优质基础资产公司受益。 投资要点: [Table_Report] 相关报告 综合金融《支付牌照缩减,多家投资咨询公司暂 停新增》2026.02.01 综合金融《消金监管趋严,行业加速出清》 2026.01.25 综合金融《业绩基准新规落地,助推行业长期发 展》2026.01.24 综合金融《保险券商均获增配,看好居民资金入 市下的非银机会》2026.01.23 综合金融《零售及自营业务驱动全年高增 ...