Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025E: 114,810 million RMB - 2026E: 131,702 million RMB - 2027E: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, which is 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed model to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive moat in the market [31][42] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 4,349 million RMB, 5,149 million RMB, and 5,888 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1,148 million RMB, 1,317 million RMB, and 1,561 million RMB [41][42] - The report employs a Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) valuation method, estimating a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD [44][50]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the controlled nuclear fusion industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the controlled nuclear fusion sector, including South Korea's increased budget for fusion research and General Fusion's plans for a SPAC merger to raise $1 billion [3][24]. - South Korea's 2026 fusion research budget has been raised to 112.4 billion KRW (approximately $76.57 million), a 99% increase from 2025 [15]. - General Fusion aims to commercialize its magnetized target fusion technology by the mid-2030s, with a valuation of approximately $1 billion post-merger [24][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - During the week of January 19-23, the nuclear fusion index rose by 3.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.92 percentage points [8][11]. Tender and Bid Information - The report notes a significant increase in procurement demand, particularly for components like TF coils, with total procurement amounts nearing 100 million RMB [10][4]. - Key projects include the procurement of stability measurement systems and TF coil insulation manufacturing, with various contracts signed [10][13]. Domestic and International News - South Korea's Ministry of Science and Technology has initiated the 2026 fusion research development plan, focusing on upgrading the fusion energy ecosystem and introducing AI technology [14][15]. - The "Huanghuang 70" superconducting tokamak has achieved a significant milestone by maintaining a stable plasma state for 335 seconds [16][17]. Investment Dynamics - General Fusion's SPAC merger is expected to accelerate its commercialization efforts, while MuWave has secured £450,000 in seed funding to develop high-power microwave technology for fusion energy [21][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic suppliers in key areas such as magnets, power supplies, and structural components, which are expected to benefit from the accelerating tender processes [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market benchmark [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the consumer price index (CPI) in December, suggesting a turning point in supply and demand dynamics. It highlights the importance of focusing on growth opportunities and the valuation flexibility of consumer goods [3][9]. - The report identifies key investment targets in the liquor sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as other brands expected to clear inventory [9]. - The beverage sector is expected to benefit from improved travel conditions, with recommendations for companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [9]. - The report notes the ongoing recovery in the restaurant supply chain and the high growth potential of companies like Bailong Chuangyuan [15]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with price elasticity, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as those expected to clear inventory like Yingjia Gongjiu and Guxi Gongjiu [9]. - It recommends beverage companies such as Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring, while also highlighting low-valuation, high-dividend stocks like China Foods and Master Kong [9]. - For snacks and food raw materials, it suggests Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, and Three Squirrels as growth targets [9]. Liquor Sector Insights - As the Spring Festival approaches, the report highlights the importance of monitoring sales volume and pricing. It notes that the peak sales period is expected in February, with varying performance among brands [10]. - The report mentions that the liquor industry faced a significant production decline in 2025, with a total output of 3.549 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, marking the largest drop since 2019 [11][13]. - It anticipates that the recovery in market conditions and inventory reduction will take time, with companies likely to maintain relationships through pricing strategies [11]. Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The report indicates that the restaurant supply chain is recovering, with the pre-prepared food sector expected to benefit from new national standards [15]. - Bailong Chuangyuan is highlighted for its strong growth, reporting a revenue of 1.38 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, and a net profit of 366 million yuan, up 48.9% [15][16]. - The report notes that the company’s growth is driven by product optimization and increased production capacity utilization [16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the automotive industry [22]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 30.21 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be approximately 16.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [20][21]. - In December 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and a decrease of 7% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales reached 29.908 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Total Passenger Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, down 9% year-on-year and down 7% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 156.3 thousand units, up 3% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles were 29.908 million units, up 9% year-on-year, while new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 1.5319 million units, up 25% year-on-year [7][8]. 2. Key Automotive Companies' December Sales - **BYD**: In December, BYD delivered 420 thousand vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and down 12% month-on-month. The overseas sales reached 132 thousand units, up 130% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Geely**: In December, Geely delivered 237 thousand vehicles, up 13% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase from 2025 [10]. - **Changan**: In December, Changan delivered 257 thousand vehicles, down 19% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is 3.3 million units, a 13% increase from 2025 [12]. - **Great Wall Motors**: In December, Great Wall Motors delivered 124 thousand vehicles, down 8% year-on-year. The company launched the "Guiyuan Platform" globally [13][14]. - **Li Auto**: In December, Li Auto delivered 44 thousand vehicles, down 24% year-on-year. The OTA 8.2 version was fully pushed [15]. - **Leap Motor**: In December, Leap Motor delivered 60 thousand vehicles, up 42% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [16][17]. - **Xpeng Motors**: In December, Xpeng Motors delivered 38 thousand vehicles, achieving double growth year-on-year and month-on-month. The 2025 total deliveries reached 429 thousand units, up 126% year-on-year [18][19]. 3. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The report notes that the effectiveness of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to diminish, with a projected total of over 11.5 million vehicles replaced in 2025, of which nearly 60% are new energy vehicles. The new policy for 2026 will shift from fixed subsidies to a "proportional subsidy + cap" model [20]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will lead to a more competitive market, pushing the industry towards higher performance and efficiency standards [21].

预定利率研究值下调趋缓，利率企稳利好利差损改善 [Table_Industry] 保险 ——保险行业协会公布 26 年 1 月人身险预定利率研究值点评 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘欣琦(分析师) | 021-38676647 | liuxinqi@gtht.com | S0880515050001 | | | 李嘉木(分析师) | 021-38038619 | lijiamu@gtht.com | S0880524030003 | [Table_subIndustry] | 本报告导读： 新一期人身险预定利率研究值维持相对稳定，预计长端利率稳定利好保险公司利差 空间改善，维持行业"增持"。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 事件： 1 月 20 日，保险行业协会组织召开人身保险业责任准备金 评估利率专家咨询委员会 2025 年四季度例会，研究认为当前普通 型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为 1.89%。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 保险《11 月保费增速边际 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the automotive industry [22]. Core Insights - The report forecasts that the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China will reach 30.21 million units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to be approximately 16.85 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 10% [20][21]. - The report highlights that the overall passenger vehicle market in December 2025 saw a wholesale sales volume of 2.814 million units, a decrease of 9% year-on-year and a decrease of 7% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales volume was 29.908 million units, an increase of 9% year-on-year [7][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Total Passenger Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total wholesale sales of passenger vehicles in China were 2.814 million units, down 9.4% year-on-year and down 7.0% month-on-month. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 156.3 thousand units, up 3% year-on-year and down 8% month-on-month. For the entire year of 2025, the wholesale sales of passenger vehicles reached 29.908 million units, up 9% year-on-year, while new energy passenger vehicle sales were 1.5319 million units, up 25% year-on-year [7][8]. 2. Key Automotive Companies' December Sales - **BYD**: In December, BYD delivered 420 thousand new vehicles, down 18% year-on-year and down 12% month-on-month. The overseas sales reached 132 thousand units, up 130% year-on-year [8][9]. - **Geely**: In December, Geely delivered 237 thousand new vehicles, up 13% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 3.45 million units, a 14% increase from 2025 [10]. - **Changan**: In December, Changan delivered 257 thousand new vehicles, down 19% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is 3.3 million units, a 13% increase from 2025 [12]. - **Great Wall Motors**: In December, Great Wall Motors delivered 124 thousand new vehicles, down 8% year-on-year. The company launched the "Guiyuan Platform" globally [13][14]. - **Li Auto**: In December, Li Auto delivered 44 thousand new vehicles, down 24% year-on-year. The OTA 8.2 version was fully pushed [15]. - **Leap Motor**: In December, Leap Motor delivered 60 thousand new vehicles, up 42% year-on-year. The 2026 sales target is set at 1 million units [16][17]. - **Xpeng Motors**: In December, Xpeng Motors delivered 38 thousand new vehicles, achieving growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons. The 2025 cumulative delivery was 429 thousand units, up 126% year-on-year [18][19]. 3. Policy Impact and Market Outlook - The report notes that the effectiveness of the old-for-new vehicle policy is expected to diminish, with the total number of vehicles replaced exceeding 11.5 million in 2025, of which nearly 60% were new energy vehicles. The new policy for 2026 will shift from fixed subsidies to a "proportional subsidy + cap" model [20]. - The report anticipates that the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives will lead to a more competitive market, pushing the industry towards higher performance and efficiency standards [21].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a rating of "Buy" for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [1] Core Insights - The domestic main site is entering a phase of high-quality and stable development, while the overseas platform TEMU is creating a second growth pole, initiating a new cycle of value reassessment [2] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: 247,639 million RMB - 2024: 393,836 million RMB - 2025E: 434,930 million RMB - 2026E: 514,929 million RMB - 2027E: 588,823 million RMB - Net profit projections are: - 2023: 67,899 million RMB - 2024: 122,344 million RMB - 2025: 114,810 million RMB - 2026: 131,702 million RMB - 2027: 156,059 million RMB - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 15.5 in 2023 to 6.7 in 2027 [4][41] Overseas Business (TEMU) - TEMU has rapidly grown to become the second-largest comprehensive e-commerce user pool globally, with MAU reaching 540 million by the second half of 2025, achieving 77% of Amazon's MAU [11][30] - The transition from a fully managed to a semi-managed model is expected to enhance profitability and user experience, with a projected breakeven point for the unit economics model by 2026 [20][30] - TEMU's unique advantage lies in leveraging China's supply chain to meet global consumer demand, enhancing operational efficiency and cost competitiveness [28][29] Domestic Business - Pinduoduo is expected to maintain a GMV growth rate of 10%-15% in 2025, outpacing the industry average, despite the reduction in subsidies [31][42] - The company focuses on a "low price + experience" strategy, which solidifies its competitive edge in the market [31] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 434,930 million RMB, 514,929 million RMB, and 588,823 million RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to be 114,810 million RMB, 131,702 million RMB, and 156,059 million RMB [41][43] - The report estimates a reasonable market value of approximately 299.6 billion USD for Pinduoduo, with a target price of 201.39 USD per share, indicating a high margin of safety at the current stock price [44][50]

股 票 研 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 韩国扩大聚变研发预算，General Fusion 拟借壳上市 [Table_Industry] 核电设备 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——可控核聚变行业周报 本报告导读： 上周（2026/1/19-2026/1/23）可控核聚变领域动态：上周招标主要集中在磁体等部件； 韩国发布《2026 年度聚变研究开发执行计划》，洪荒 70 成功实现 335 秒稳态长脉 冲等离子体运行；General Fusion 拟借壳上市募资 10 亿美元，MuWave 宣布获得种 子轮融资。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 核电设备《2026 核聚变能科技与产业大会开幕， 星环聚能完成 10 亿元 A 轮融资》2026.01.18 核电设备《英伟达与西门子联手 CFS 打造聚变数 字孪生体，洪荒 70 完成 120 秒稳态长脉冲等离子 体运行》2026.01.11 核电设备《欧盟聚变战略发布在即，美德联手攻 克聚变激光技术瓶颈》2025.12.29 核电设备《可控核聚变行业中标显著加速，特朗 普媒体科技宣布与 TAE 签署最 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the computer industry [4] Core Insights - Shanghai's "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of AI and outlines a modern industrial system to enhance core competitiveness, focusing on the digitalization and green transformation of traditional industries, and accelerating the growth of three leading industries: integrated circuits, biomedicine, and artificial intelligence [4] - The institutional holding in the computer sector for Q4 2025 is at 2.1%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating significant room for increased allocation [2][4] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing key advancements in mass production and commercialization, with Yuzhu Technology reporting over 5,500 units shipped in 2025 and Tesla's Optimus robot expected to be available for sale by the end of 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the establishment of a multi-layered industrial structure aimed at achieving gradient development through traditional upgrades, leading breakthroughs, cluster development, and future cultivation [4] - The focus is on building systemic advantages in information processing infrastructure, algorithms, and applications [4] Institutional Holdings - Historical analysis shows that institutional holdings in the computer sector have fluctuated, with a peak of 6.2% in Q4 2022, followed by a decline to 2.1% in Q4 2025, which is one of the lowest levels in the past decade [4] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Nichicon Technology - Kingsoft Office - Hehe Information - Hikvision - Newland - Daotong Technology - Haiguang Information - Zhongke Shuguang [4][5]

REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 维持看多趋势不变，但部分项目存在追高风险，可待回调后参与或挖掘潜在涨幅空 间更充裕的项目。 快速上行，行稳致远 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) 投资要点： | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | 021-38031036 | | --- | --- | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 再谈动量因子 U 型特征 2026.01.24 久期热度回升，配置强于交易 2026.01.22 稳中待变：美联储降息延后下中久期配置正当时 2026.01.21 二永债：利差修复扩散至中长端可期 2026.01.20 关注 30Y 国债借入量大超季节性 2026.01.20 证 券 研 究 报 告 券 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 市 场 策 略 周 报 债券 ...