| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有望修复 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 股 票 研 究 业 跟 煤炭《2025 年用电量超 10 万亿 kwh，需求开启 上行周期》2026.01.19 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260118》2026.01.18 煤炭《反内卷再起，需求端预计 26 年开启上行周 期》2026.01.11 煤炭《国 ...

第 4 周成交涨跌互现，供给下降有利市场重获均衡 [Table_Industry] 房地产 票 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《通胀好转，资产价格预期受益》2026.01.20 房地产《风雨之后，等待彩虹》2026.01.19 房地产《第 3 周成交回升，商业地产首付比下调有 利稳定市场》2026.01.18 房地产《第 2 周成交回落，期待未来政策对冲外部 不利影响》2026.01.11 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | | ...

管中窥豹：本轮回暖中隐含着债市哪些新规律 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 我们认为上半年超长端供需矛盾或是主要扰动，中长端资金宽松或是主要利好。 投资要点： 债 券 研 究 市 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 再谈动量因子 U 型特征 2026.01.24 久期热度回升，配置强于交易 2026.01.22 稳中待变：美联储降息延后下中久期配置正当时 2026.01.21 二永债：利差修复扩散至中长端可期 2026.01.20 关注 30Y 国债借入量大超季节性 2026.01.20 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 场 策 略 周 报 [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the innovative pharmaceutical and medical device industry chain [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - Continuous support policies are being implemented, which are expected to benefit innovative surgical projects and retail pharmacy chains [2][5]. - The report highlights the high growth potential in innovative pharmaceuticals, recommending companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical for overweight ratings [5][7]. - The report also emphasizes the recovery of the CXO and upstream pharmaceutical sectors, recommending companies like WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and others for overweight ratings [5][7]. Summary by Sections Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - The report continues to recommend the innovative pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential revaluation of companies like Heng Rui Medicine and others [5][7]. - It highlights the gradual realization of innovative pipelines and the performance growth of Biopharma/Biotech companies, maintaining overweight ratings for several key players [5][7]. Market Performance - In the fourth week of January 2026, the A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW pharmaceutical and biological index declining by 0.4% compared to a 0.8% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][14]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to the entire A-share market is currently at a normal level, with a relative premium rate of 65.4% as of January 23, 2026 [14][18]. Stock Recommendations - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for various companies, maintaining overweight ratings for multiple firms across different segments, including innovative pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer healthcare [8][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil shipping sectors [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see record passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase of approximately 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 9.5 billion trips in 2026. The report anticipates strong demand during the Spring Festival, with limited additional flights due to strict management by airlines [4]. - In the oil shipping sector, high oil freight rates are expected to persist, with a significant year-on-year increase in tanker profits anticipated for Q1 2026. The report highlights a bullish long-term outlook for oil shipping driven by global oil production growth and an aging fleet [4]. - The express delivery sector is projected to experience a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by effective measures against excessive competition [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a record high in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in civil aviation passenger transport [4][5]. - The pre-sale trends for airline tickets are positive, and the overall flight capacity increase during the Spring Festival is expected to be limited, benefiting airline revenue management [4]. - The report suggests a strategic investment in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines as potential beneficiaries [4]. Oil Shipping - Oil freight rates are expected to remain high, with a significant increase in tanker profits projected for Q1 2026 due to rising oil production from the Middle East and South America [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish logic for oil shipping, driven by increased demand and a tightening supply due to an aging fleet [4]. - Recommended companies in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a decline in growth rate towards the end of the year [4]. - The report notes that measures against excessive competition have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the sector [4]. - Companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the textile and apparel fund holdings remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% in clothing retail sales in December, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The report highlights structural opportunities in exports and notes that the retail data from the U.S. shows resilience, with a continuous decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio for clothing [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing increased by 1.2%, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 7.4% [18]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with clothing and accessories retail sales growing by 1.2% [20]. - The textile and apparel export value for December 2025 was approximately $25.992 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages through diversified production capacity and highlights the importance of order cycle management [4]. - Recommended stocks include: - Bailing Oriental (百隆东方) [16] - Chaoying International Holdings (超盈国际控股) [16] - Anta Sports (安踏体育) [16] - Li Ning (李宁) [16] - Xtep International (特步国际) [16] - Prada (普拉达) [16] - Samsonite (新秀丽) [16] - Jiangnan Buyi (江南布衣) [16] - Taobo (滔搏) [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for mid-to-high-end product orders to show resilience and the positive outlook for cotton prices benefiting related cotton spinning enterprises [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volume during the Spring Festival, with an anticipated 95 million passengers, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [2][5]. - The retail sector showed a slight increase in consumer spending, with a total retail sales of 45,136 billion yuan in December 2025, marking a 0.9% year-on-year growth [5]. - The report highlights the continuous rise in gold prices, with spot gold surpassing 4,800 USD per ounce, leading to increased prices for domestic gold jewelry [5]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of travel policies on tourism and hotel sectors, suggesting a focus on companies like Atour, Huazhu Group, and Jinjiang Hotels [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Civil Aviation - The report indicates that the domestic flight ticket prices have slightly increased compared to the previous year during the Spring Festival [5]. - The Civil Aviation Administration forecasts a daily average of 2.38 million passengers during the Spring Festival period [5]. Retail Sector - The total retail sales for the year 2025 reached 501,202 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year increase [5]. - The report notes that the opening of the child-rearing subsidy program on January 5, 2026, will provide 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old [5]. Company Announcements - China Duty Free Group announced the acquisition of DFS's travel retail business in Greater China for up to 395 million USD [5]. - Jiajiayue expects a net profit of 198 million to 228 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.06% to 72.79% [5]. - Meikailong anticipates a net loss of 22.5 billion to 15 billion yuan for 2025, a significant decline compared to the previous year [5]. - Jinling Hotel expects a net profit of 55 million to 63.5 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 65.37% to 90.93% year-on-year [5].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The "double-click moment" for USD assets is triggered by Trump's comments on Greenland and tariff threats, alongside the early dissolution of Japan's House of Representatives, leading to a sell-off in Japanese bonds[1] - Trump's elevation of the Greenland issue to a matter of "national security and sovereignty" has reignited concerns over USD credit, causing a "death cross" between the USD and US Treasury bonds, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver have strengthened[7] - The sell-off in Japanese bonds saw the 30-year yield rise by 26 basis points to 3.875% and the 40-year yield increase by 27 basis points to 4.215%, raising fears of a reversal in carry trade[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 17 were 260,000, indicating a stable labor market but high continuing claims suggest difficulty for unemployed individuals in finding new jobs[13] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January rose to 56.4 from 54, showing signs of stabilization but remaining at historically low levels[13] - The MBA mortgage application index showed a slight decline, with the purchase index at 78.2 (previously 79.9) and the refinancing index at 319.4 (previously 340.9), indicating a mixed recovery in housing loans[13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [4]. Core Insights - As of January 23, 2026, eight banks have reported stable growth in performance and maintained asset quality. The outlook for 2026 suggests continued improvement in listed banks' performance, supported by narrowing interest margin declines and decreasing credit costs [2][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Indicators - Eight banks reported their performance for 2025, showing stable growth and asset quality. The revenue growth rates for major banks were as follows: - Shanghai Pudong Development Bank: +1.9% - Industrial Bank: +0.2% - China Merchants Bank: +0.01% - CITIC Bank: -0.6% - Regional banks like Nanjing Bank and Ningbo Bank showed stronger growth at +10.5% and +8.0% respectively [4][6]. - Profit growth was stable across listed banks, with notable increases in Hangzhou and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank exceeding 10% [4][6]. Scale and Growth - Quality regional banks continued to experience strong credit growth, with year-end asset growth rates for Nanjing, Ningbo, and Hangzhou at 16.6%, 16.1%, and 12.0% respectively. Loan growth rates were 13.4%, 17.4%, and 14.3% respectively [4][6]. - Overall deposit growth remained stable, with city commercial banks maintaining over 10% growth and joint-stock banks at 7%-8% [4][6]. Asset Quality - Non-performing loan ratios showed a stable or declining trend among the eight banks, with Shanghai Pudong, Suzhou Rural, and CITIC banks reporting decreases to 1.26%, 0.88%, and 1.15% respectively [4][6]. - The provision coverage ratio remained robust, with Hangzhou and China Merchants Bank showing declines of over 10 percentage points but still at high absolute levels [4][6]. Outlook for 2026 - The report anticipates continued improvement in bank performance in 2026, driven by narrowing interest margin declines and decreasing credit costs. Key factors include: - Net interest income growth expected to improve due to the expiration of high-cost long-term deposits and stable LPR [4][6]. - Fee income growth driven by insurance and wealth management channels [4][6]. - Asset quality improvements as risks in key corporate sectors are resolved [4][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines for 2026: 1. Identifying banks with potential for performance growth, recommending Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Nanjing Bank. 2. Considering banks with convertible bond expectations, recommending Chongqing Bank and Changshu Bank. 3. Continuing dividend strategies, recommending Bank of Communications, Jiangsu Bank, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the home appliance industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight decline in fund holdings in the home appliance sector, with a 2.6% allocation in actively managed equity funds for Q4 2025, down 0.2 percentage points from Q3 [2][4]. - December retail sales for home appliances showed a year-on-year decline of 18.7%, indicating ongoing pressure despite a high base in the previous year [2][4]. - The European Union has mandated registration for imports of robotic lawn mowers from China, with potential anti-dumping duties estimated between 21.4% and 57.4% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that national subsidies are expected to transition smoothly, and leading companies in both black and white appliances are recommended for their stable operations and high dividends, including Midea Group (13.1X PE), Haier Smart Home (11.4X), TCL Electronics (12.7X), and Hisense Visual (12.7X) [4]. - It emphasizes the core drivers of smart home appliances' overseas expansion, recommending leading robotic vacuum manufacturers Roborock (20.3X) and Ecovacs (22.5X) [4]. - Companies with stable performance and upward potential include Ninebot (19.9X), Anfu Technology (56.8X), Hailong Cold Chain (15.9X), and Beiding Co. (35.3X) [4]. - The report also notes that home appliance companies are diversifying into new areas, recommending Rongtai Health (21.3X) and Wanlong Magnetic Plastic (21.9X) [4]. Market Data - In December 2025, the production of home air conditioners was 14.782 million units, down 18.7% year-on-year, with domestic sales at 5.397 million units, down 26.7% [2][4]. - The total domestic sales for the year reached 10.521 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while total exports were 9.318 million units, down 3.4% [2][4]. - The overall retail sales for home appliances in December 2025 amounted to 97.1 billion yuan, with a cumulative annual total of 1,169.5 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.0% year-on-year increase [2][4].