Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector [6] Core Insights - Corn prices continue to rise, with a current spot price of 2,375 CNY/ton as of January 23, 2026, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.46%. The report is optimistic about the recovery of planting sentiment in the agricultural sector [4][10] - The report highlights a trend of increasing investment in the agricultural sector, with institutional investors increasing their holdings in companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Zhongxing Junye, while reducing positions in others like Noposion and New Hope [3] - The pet industry is also highlighted, with significant trends noted in pet fashion and pet-human cohabitation, indicating a growing investment in this sector. Major pet exhibitions are scheduled for March 2026, which are expected to catalyze new product launches [5] Summary by Sections Agricultural Sector - The agricultural sector's fund holdings are valued at 46.896 billion CNY, which is 0.14 percentage points below the standard industry allocation ratio, marking five consecutive quarters of underperformance [3] - The report anticipates stable to rising prices for corn and other grains, which is expected to benefit seed companies that adhere to a "quality for price" strategy [4] Livestock and Poultry - The report notes fluctuations in pig prices, with a current price of 13.1 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.92% weekly increase. However, the annual comparison shows a decrease of 15.19% [10] - The average self-breeding and self-raising profit in the industry is reported at 43.4 CNY per head, showing a significant increase of 486.6% week-on-week [10] Pet Industry - The report emphasizes the increasing consumer investment in pets, with major exhibitions in South and North China expected to draw significant attention and new product launches from leading brands [5] - Recommended stocks in the pet sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Ruipubio, all of which are expected to benefit from the growing market [6] Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, with several companies rated as "Overweight," including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [39]

[Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴杰(分析师) | 021-23183818 | wujie3@gtht.com | S0880525040109 | | 胡鸿程(分析师) | 021-23185962 | huhongcheng@gtht.com | S0880525070011 | 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.26 本报告导读： 12 月低基数用电仍偏低，待 26 年政策发力 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 我们预计 1 月的最后一周或将是行业估值的分水岭。 证 券 研 究 报 告 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 公用事业《国泰海通公用事业月度电力数据库 _20260123》2026.01.23 公用事业《公用事业数据周报_20260119》 2026.01.19 公用事业《跨境碳定价，绿电价值或提升》 2026.01.18 公用事业《中石化与中航油实 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions in influencing metal prices [2] - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend due to geopolitical events in North America, concerns over the US dollar and treasury bonds, and increased central bank gold purchases [6] - Copper prices are anticipated to remain strong due to supply disruptions in Chile and expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [6] - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong performance supported by macroeconomic factors and increased production capacity [6] - Energy metals show strong demand with continuous inventory depletion, particularly lithium, despite seasonal production declines [6] Summary by Sections Supply Disruptions and Opportunities - Gold prices have risen significantly, with SHFE gold increasing by 8.00% to 1,115.64 CNY per gram and COMEX gold by 8.44% to 4,983.10 USD per ounce [9] - Silver prices have also surged, with SHFE silver up 10.62% to 24,965 CNY per kilogram and COMEX silver up 16.63% to 103.26 USD per ounce [10] Industry and Stock Performance - The SW non-ferrous metals index increased by 6.03% last week, outperforming major indices [16] - The report highlights that industrial metal prices have shown mixed performance, with copper and aluminum prices increasing while lead and zinc prices have decreased [25] Metal Prices and Inventory - Copper prices rose to 101,340 CNY per ton on SHFE, reflecting a 0.57% increase, while LME copper increased by 2.44% to 13,115 USD per ton [12] - Aluminum prices on SHFE increased by 1.53% to 24,290 CNY per ton, supported by improved production and demand [11] Macro Data Tracking - The report tracks macroeconomic indicators, including CPI and PPI, which are crucial for understanding the broader economic environment affecting metal prices [29][44] Precious Metals - The report notes that low inventory levels and expectations of liquidity easing are driving precious metal prices higher [50] - Central bank gold purchases and ETF holdings are expected to support gold prices in 2026 [6] Copper Market - Supply disruptions in Chile, including strikes at major copper mines, are expected to support copper prices [12] - The report anticipates that copper prices may experience fluctuations based on macroeconomic developments, particularly related to interest rates [65] Energy Metals - Lithium inventory continues to decline, indicating strong demand, while the market is cautious about production disruptions from key mines [13] - The cobalt sector is facing high prices due to tight raw material supply, with companies extending their operations into downstream sectors [13]

Group 1 - The report indicates that at the end of 2025, the bond market was relatively weak, with banks showing overall limited allocation to interest rate bonds across various maturities. However, entering 2026, as banks' annual KPIs were gradually determined, the volatility of deposit replacement on the liability side stabilized, leading to a gradual recovery in interest rate bonds. In the first week of the year, bank buying power significantly increased, covering various maturities, and this buying power further expanded in the middle of the month. Nevertheless, bank participation remained more structural and selective rather than a comprehensive increase [7][8][15] Group 2 - Large banks have shown an expanding allocation to government bonds, with a notable increase in purchases of policy financial bonds starting in the third week of January. The buying focus has been on 1-3Y and 7-10Y maturities, while there has been a significant increase in selling of ultra-long local bonds [8][9][10] - The allocation behavior of large banks has evolved weekly, with a strong buying momentum in the first week primarily focused on various maturities of government bonds. In the second week, the buying continued for medium to long-term government bonds, but the marginal increase in ultra-long-term allocations slowed down. By the third week, large banks began to significantly increase their buying of 1-3Y and 20-30Y government bonds, indicating a simultaneous rise in demand for both short and ultra-long maturities [8][9][10] Group 3 - Small and medium-sized banks exhibited a "front-loading and back-selling" pattern in their trading behavior for secondary interest rate bonds. In the first week of the month, these banks concentrated their buying on medium to long-term bonds, but in the last two weeks, they shifted to net selling, indicating a phase-out of their allocation to medium to long-term bonds. For local bonds, there was strong buying activity in the first week, but the buying intensity has cooled in the past week, with marginal demand weakening and trading pace slowing down [15][16][17] Group 4 - In the funding market, there has been an expansion in borrowing while lending has contracted, leading to an increase in leverage ratios across institutions. The overnight trading proportion has risen, with interbank bond market leverage ratios showing slight declines overall, while banks and insurance companies have seen slight increases in their leverage ratios [7][8] Group 5 - In the primary market, the spread between the primary and secondary prices of policy financial bonds has widened. In the past week, two 10Y National Development Bonds and two 10Y Agricultural Development Bonds were issued, with both types seeing an increase in overall multiples, although the marginal multiples have decreased [7][8] Group 6 - In the secondary market, the borrowing volume of active bonds has continued to rise. The trading activity in the cash bond market has warmed up, with differentiated trading behaviors observed among various types of institutions. Large banks have significantly bought 1-3Y and 7-10Y maturities while showing net selling in other short to medium-term bonds and net buying in ultra-long maturities. Conversely, small and medium-sized banks have shown net selling across various maturities, particularly in the 7-10Y segment [7][8][9]

| [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄涛(分析师) | 021-38674879 | huangtao@gtht.com | S0880515090001 | | 王楠瑀(分析师) | 021-38032030 | wangnanyu@gtht.com | S0880525070029 | | 邓铖琦(分析师) | 010-83939825 | dengchengqi@gtht.com | S0880523050003 | 本报告导读： 我们认为煤炭板块周期底部已经确认在 25Q2，供需格局已经显现了逆转拐点，下行 风险充分释放。 投资要点： 地产政策多部门联动稳预期，非电需求有望修复 [Table_Industry] 煤炭 煤炭行业周报 股 票 研 究 业 跟 煤炭《2025 年用电量超 10 万亿 kwh，需求开启 上行周期》2026.01.19 煤炭《国泰海通煤炭行业基本面数据库大全 20260118》2026.01.18 煤炭《反内卷再起，需求端预计 26 年开启上行周 期》2026.01.11 煤炭《国 ...

第 4 周成交涨跌互现，供给下降有利市场重获均衡 [Table_Industry] 房地产 票 研 究 [Table_Report] 相关报告 房地产《通胀好转，资产价格预期受益》2026.01.20 房地产《风雨之后，等待彩虹》2026.01.19 房地产《第 3 周成交回升，商业地产首付比下调有 利稳定市场》2026.01.18 房地产《第 2 周成交回落，期待未来政策对冲外部 不利影响》2026.01.11 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | | | 谢盐(分析师) | 021-23185696 | xieyan@gtht.com | S0880525040098 | | ...

管中窥豹：本轮回暖中隐含着债市哪些新规律 [Table_Authors] 唐元懋(分析师) 本报告导读： 我们认为上半年超长端供需矛盾或是主要扰动，中长端资金宽松或是主要利好。 投资要点： 债 券 研 究 市 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.25 | | 0755-23976753 | | --- | --- | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | | | 孙越(分析师) | | | 021-38031033 | | | sunyue6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525080004 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 再谈动量因子 U 型特征 2026.01.24 久期热度回升，配置强于交易 2026.01.22 稳中待变：美联储降息延后下中久期配置正当时 2026.01.21 二永债：利差修复扩散至中长端可期 2026.01.20 关注 30Y 国债借入量大超季节性 2026.01.20 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 场 策 略 周 报 [Table_Sum ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the innovative pharmaceutical and medical device industry chain [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - Continuous support policies are being implemented, which are expected to benefit innovative surgical projects and retail pharmacy chains [2][5]. - The report highlights the high growth potential in innovative pharmaceuticals, recommending companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Sanofi, Kelun Pharmaceutical, and Enhua Pharmaceutical for overweight ratings [5][7]. - The report also emphasizes the recovery of the CXO and upstream pharmaceutical sectors, recommending companies like WuXi AppTec, WuXi Biologics, and others for overweight ratings [5][7]. Summary by Sections Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - The report continues to recommend the innovative pharmaceutical sector, indicating a potential revaluation of companies like Heng Rui Medicine and others [5][7]. - It highlights the gradual realization of innovative pipelines and the performance growth of Biopharma/Biotech companies, maintaining overweight ratings for several key players [5][7]. Market Performance - In the fourth week of January 2026, the A-share pharmaceutical sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW pharmaceutical and biological index declining by 0.4% compared to a 0.8% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [9][14]. - The report notes that the pharmaceutical sector's premium level relative to the entire A-share market is currently at a normal level, with a relative premium rate of 65.4% as of January 23, 2026 [14][18]. Stock Recommendations - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation for various companies, maintaining overweight ratings for multiple firms across different segments, including innovative pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and consumer healthcare [8][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil shipping sectors [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see record passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase of approximately 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 9.5 billion trips in 2026. The report anticipates strong demand during the Spring Festival, with limited additional flights due to strict management by airlines [4]. - In the oil shipping sector, high oil freight rates are expected to persist, with a significant year-on-year increase in tanker profits anticipated for Q1 2026. The report highlights a bullish long-term outlook for oil shipping driven by global oil production growth and an aging fleet [4]. - The express delivery sector is projected to experience a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by effective measures against excessive competition [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a record high in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in civil aviation passenger transport [4][5]. - The pre-sale trends for airline tickets are positive, and the overall flight capacity increase during the Spring Festival is expected to be limited, benefiting airline revenue management [4]. - The report suggests a strategic investment in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines as potential beneficiaries [4]. Oil Shipping - Oil freight rates are expected to remain high, with a significant increase in tanker profits projected for Q1 2026 due to rising oil production from the Middle East and South America [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish logic for oil shipping, driven by increased demand and a tightening supply due to an aging fleet [4]. - Recommended companies in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a decline in growth rate towards the end of the year [4]. - The report notes that measures against excessive competition have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the sector [4]. - Companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the textile and apparel fund holdings remained stable, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2% in clothing retail sales in December, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the previous month [3][4]. - The report highlights structural opportunities in exports and notes that the retail data from the U.S. shows resilience, with a continuous decrease in the inventory-to-sales ratio for clothing [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Data Tracking - In December 2025, the retail sales of clothing increased by 1.2%, while textile and apparel exports decreased by 7.4% [18]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in China increased by 0.9% year-on-year, with clothing and accessories retail sales growing by 1.2% [20]. - The textile and apparel export value for December 2025 was approximately $25.992 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year [20]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages through diversified production capacity and highlights the importance of order cycle management [4]. - Recommended stocks include: - Bailing Oriental (百隆东方) [16] - Chaoying International Holdings (超盈国际控股) [16] - Anta Sports (安踏体育) [16] - Li Ning (李宁) [16] - Xtep International (特步国际) [16] - Prada (普拉达) [16] - Samsonite (新秀丽) [16] - Jiangnan Buyi (江南布衣) [16] - Taobo (滔搏) [16] - The report emphasizes the potential for mid-to-high-end product orders to show resilience and the positive outlook for cotton prices benefiting related cotton spinning enterprises [4].