Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the banking industry [6] Core Views - Government bonds and corporate bond financing significantly supported the year-on-year increase in social financing (社融) in December 2024, with a growth rate of 8.0% YoY and a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [8][9] - Loan growth slightly declined, with a 7.6% YoY increase in December 2024, but residential medium and long-term loans continued to improve, showing a YoY increase of 1,538 billion yuan [13] - M1 growth continued to rebound, with a YoY increase of -1.4% in December 2024, while M2 grew by 7.3% YoY, narrowing the M2-M1 growth gap by 2.1 percentage points to 8.7% [17] Investment Recommendations and Targets - High-dividend stocks are recommended, including Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) [23] - Cyclical stocks and high-quality city commercial banks are suggested, such as China Merchants Bank (600036), Bank of Ningbo (002142), Bank of Nanjing (601009), Bank of Hangzhou (600926), and Bank of Chengdu (601838) [23] - Stocks with improving risk expectations are highlighted, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) and Ping An Bank (000001) [25] Key Data and Trends - Social financing in December 2024 increased by 28,575 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 9,249 billion yuan, driven by government bonds and corporate bond financing [9] - Residential medium and long-term loans improved for three consecutive months, with a YoY increase of 1,538 billion yuan in December 2024 [13] - Corporate deposits increased significantly by 14,892 billion yuan YoY in December 2024, mainly due to accelerated fiscal spending [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 7, based on a 12x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - The company's main brand, Xtep, showed steady growth in Q4 2024, with retail sales increasing by high single digits year-over-year and retail discount levels improving to 70-75% off, compared to 75% off in Q3 2024 [5] - The Saucony brand continued its strong growth trajectory, with retail sales increasing by approximately 50% year-over-year in Q4 2024 and over 60% for the full year [5] - Xtep achieved the highest wear rate among global running shoes at the 2024 Shanghai Marathon, solidifying its leadership in the running market [5] - The company expects steady growth for its main brand and high growth for Saucony, which is anticipated to form a second growth curve [5] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 14,035 million, a slight decline of 2.2% year-over-year, but growth is expected to resume in 2025E and 2026E with increases of 9.8% and 10.0%, respectively [5] - Operating profit for 2024E is forecasted at RMB 1,879 million, an 18.9% increase year-over-year, with further growth expected in 2025E and 2026E [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow by 21.8% in 2024E, reaching RMB 1,255 million, with continued growth in subsequent years [5] - Gross margin is expected to improve from 42.2% in 2023A to 45.6% in 2026E, reflecting better profitability [5] Valuation and Market Performance - The company's HKD market capitalization is HKD 15,216 million as of January 14, 2025, with a total of 268,365 million shares outstanding [3] - The stock's 52-week high and low prices are HKD 7.13 and HKD 3.19, respectively, with a current price of HKD 5.67 as of January 14, 2025 [3] - The stock has shown strong relative performance, with a 12-month absolute return of 50.16%, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 31.84% [3] Industry Comparison - The company's 2025E PE ratio of 8.4x is lower than industry peers such as Anta (15x) and Li Ning (10x), indicating potential undervaluation [7] - The adjusted average PE ratio for the industry is 12x for 2025E, suggesting that the company's valuation is relatively attractive [7] Strategic Developments - The company has successfully divested its KP business, which is expected to improve overall profitability [5] - Saucony expanded its retail presence with new concept stores in Beijing and Shanghai, further enhancing its brand image and market reach [5]

Group 1: Political Dynamics in Canada - Trudeau announced his resignation on January 6, 2025, amid declining support and pressure from U.S. tariffs[1] - The Liberal Party's support rate is at 20.1%, significantly trailing the Conservative Party at 44.2%[17] - Nine ministers have resigned or announced they will not run in the next federal election since July 2024, indicating internal dissent[1] Group 2: Economic Implications - The U.S. has threatened a 25% tariff on all products from Canada and Mexico, impacting Canada's economy heavily reliant on oil and automotive exports[1] - Key Liberal Party members oppose Trudeau's tariff response, advocating for reduced fiscal spending to combat inflation and deficits[1] Group 3: Leadership Transition - Potential candidates for the Liberal Party leadership include Chrystia Freeland, Mark Carney, and Anita Anand, each with distinct policy positions[24] - The Liberal Party is expected to select a new leader before the parliamentary session resumes on March 24, 2025[24] Group 4: Future Challenges - The Liberal Party's coalition with the New Democratic Party is strained, complicating their ability to maintain power[25] - A no-confidence motion from the Conservative Party could trigger a new federal election if the Liberal Party fails to secure support[25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry in China [4]. Core Insights - New home sales in the first two weeks of 2025 have shown a continuous month-on-month decline, returning to levels seen before recent policy changes, while the second-hand housing market continues to benefit from policy effects [7][43]. - The report highlights that the effectiveness of policies implemented since September 24 has been strong, with both new and second-hand home sales remaining at high levels for three consecutive months [43]. - It is anticipated that the policy effects may extend into early 2025, but a decline in sales is expected during January and February due to the Spring Festival [43]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the second week of 2025, the real estate sector index underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with a relative return of -1.6% [10]. - The real estate index closed at 1999.59, reflecting a weekly decline of 2.7% [11]. Sales Data - New home sales in 44 major cities dropped to 19,500 units, a decrease of 35.5% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 cities increased by 14.8% to 21,400 units [14]. - The inventory in 18 major cities decreased to 865,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 15.1 months, down by 0.2 months from the previous week [22]. Policy Developments - Local policies have been implemented to stimulate the market, such as reducing the minimum down payment for housing provident funds in Jinan from 30% to 20% [12]. - Various regions are taking measures to promote real estate sales, including encouraging ongoing construction during the Spring Festival and addressing housing certification issues [12][17]. Company Announcements - Several companies have made significant announcements, including financial support extensions and guarantees for subsidiaries, indicating ongoing corporate activity in the sector [40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Poly Developments (600048), China Merchants Shekou (001979), and increasing holdings in Gemdale Corporation (600383) [43]. - It also suggests monitoring companies like China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123) for potential investment opportunities [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Hengli Petrochemical with a target price of **19.81 CNY** based on a 2025 average PE of 18x for comparable companies [3][5] Core Views - **Short-term profit improvement** is expected due to the recent rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude rising from **71 USD/barrel** in early December 2024 to around **80 USD/barrel**, leading to significant price increases in domestic refined oil products [9] - **Long-term dividend capability** is highlighted as the company's high-intensity capital expenditure cycle nears completion, with major projects like the **1.6 million-ton high-performance resin and new materials project** and the **5 million-ton PTA project** entering production stages [9] Financial Forecasts - **EPS adjustments**: 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are revised to **0.92 CNY**, **1.10 CNY**, and **1.14 CNY**, down from previous estimates of **1.67 CNY** and **1.92 CNY** for 2024 and 2025 [3] - **Revenue growth**: 2024E revenue is expected to decline by **1.1%** to **232,200 million CNY**, followed by a **3.7%** increase in 2025E to **240,681 million CNY** [7] - **Net profit growth**: 2024E net profit is projected to decrease by **6.5%** to **6,459 million CNY**, with a **20%** increase in 2025E to **7,748 million CNY** [7] Key Financial Metrics - **Gross margin**: Expected to remain stable at **10.5%** in 2024E and **11.1%** in 2025E and 2026E [7] - **ROE**: Forecasted at **10.5%** in 2024E, rising to **11.9%** in 2025E [7] - **PE ratio**: 2025E PE is estimated at **13.5x**, declining to **13.1x** in 2026E [7] Industry and Market Performance - **Absolute performance**: Hengli Petrochemical's stock showed a **24.47%** increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index by **11.12%** [5] - **Comparable company valuation**: The average PE ratio for comparable companies in 2025E is **18x**, with Hengli's target price derived from this benchmark [10] Capital Expenditure and Dividend Potential - **Capital expenditure reduction**: 2025E capital expenditure is expected to decrease significantly, freeing up more funds for **dividends and share buybacks** [9] - **Dividend capability**: The company is positioned to become one of the early manufacturing firms in the chemical industry with strong dividend capabilities [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 109.62, based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025 [2][3] Core Views - FILA showed significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in Q4 2024, while other brands maintained high growth [1] - Anta Sports is expected to achieve industry-leading growth due to its strong multi-brand operational capabilities, despite macroeconomic uncertainties [5] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Russia, and the US, with the appointment of a new international business head [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 53,651 million in 2022 to RMB 85,439 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 7,590 million in 2022 to RMB 15,925 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 14.6% [5] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 2.69 in 2022 to RMB 5.64 in 2026 [5] Brand Performance - Anta brand: Q4 2024 sales grew by high single digits year-on-year, with faster growth in children's categories and e-commerce channels [5] - FILA: Q4 2024 sales grew by high single digits year-on-year, showing resilience in the fashion sports segment [5] - Other brands: Q4 2024 sales grew by 50-55% year-on-year, driven by strong performance from Descente and Kolon [5] Valuation and Market Comparison - Anta Sports' 2025E PE ratio is 15.1x, lower than peers like Lululemon (26x) and Nike (27x) [7] - The company's 2025E PB ratio is 2.7x, compared to Lululemon's 26x and Nike's 27x [7] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Sports is advancing channel reforms, including the construction of "Super Anta" channels and optimizing store models [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation to align with current consumer trends [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 130.68 CNY based on a 36x PE valuation for 2026 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the AI trend in televisions, with major manufacturers showcasing AI televisions at CES 2025, indicating a growing market for AI-enabled devices [2][10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.94 CNY, 2.71 CNY, and 3.63 CNY respectively, reflecting adjustments in expense ratios and asset impairment losses [3][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 6,519 million CNY in 2024, 8,250 million CNY in 2025, and 10,210 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 21%, 27%, and 24% respectively [5][17]. - Operating profit is expected to recover significantly, with forecasts of 859 million CNY in 2024, 1,200 million CNY in 2025, and 1,606 million CNY in 2026, showing growth rates of 71%, 40%, and 34% respectively [5][17]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 811 million CNY in 2024, 1,136 million CNY in 2025, and 1,522 million CNY in 2026, with growth rates of 63%, 40%, and 34% respectively [5][17]. - The company's gross margin is expected to stabilize around 37% from 2024 to 2026, while the net margin is projected to improve from 12.4% in 2024 to 14.9% in 2026 [5][17]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company has established deep collaborations with major global television ecosystems, including Google TV and Amazon Fire TV, positioning itself well within the growing AI television market [10][11]. - The introduction of advanced features in AI televisions, such as real-time translation and personalized content, is expected to drive demand for the company's SoC (System on Chip) products [10][12].

Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - Syria has been divided into three main regions since the civil war began in 2011, each supported by a major power: the Assad government in the west backed by Iran and Russia, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north and northeast supported by the U.S., and the northwest controlled by Turkish-backed opposition groups[1] - The complex situation in Syria is influenced by three main factors: its strategic location as a conduit for Iranian support to regional proxies, its role as a base for ISIS, and Turkey's concerns over Kurdish autonomy linked to the PKK[1] - The recent escalation of conflict in December 2024 was attributed to Hezbollah and Iran's overextension due to their conflict with Israel, allowing opposition forces to counterattack[2] Group 2: New Government Challenges - The new government formed by the opposition aims to unify various armed factions and gain international recognition, with a focus on combating ISIS to secure Western support[3] - The new government faces significant challenges in managing relations with Kurdish forces, U.S. military presence, and Russian military bases, which could complicate its authority and governance[3] - Economic reconstruction is critical for the new government, which relies on U.S. and Turkish support to revive key industries like oil and agriculture, which accounted for 35% and 22% of total exports respectively before the war[3]

Inflation Data Summary - In December 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth was 0.1%, down from 0.2% in the previous month, with a month-on-month change of 0% compared to -0.6% previously[2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year change was -2.3%, slightly improved from -2.5% in the previous month, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% compared to 0.1% previously[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI has increased year-on-year for three consecutive months, with December's non-food CPI at -0.5% and core CPI at 0.4%[3] - Energy prices saw a year-on-year decline of 1.7%, but the decrease was less severe than the previous month by 2.1 percentage points[3] Food and Service Price Trends - Food CPI year-on-year growth was -0.5%, with fresh vegetables and fruits showing significant price drops of 0.5% and -3% respectively[3] - Service CPI increased slightly to 0.5% year-on-year, marking the first rise since October 2023[3] PPI Sector Analysis - The PPI for upstream mining and raw materials showed a reduced decline, with mining PPI at -4.6% and raw materials at -2.2%[3] - The PPI for midstream equipment manufacturing showed signs of recovery, with general equipment manufacturing PPI at -1%[3] Policy Implications - The "Two New" policy is expected to continue influencing inflation data, with significant funding increases for 2025 aimed at supporting consumption and equipment upgrades[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current period is characterized as a policy observation phase, with expectations of continued monetary easing in China. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold and metal new materials due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and anticipated global central bank gold purchases in 2025 [2][13]. - Steel consumption for construction has entered a seasonal decline, with significant decreases in rebar consumption and prices. The report notes a 10.16% week-on-week decline in rebar consumption, totaling 1.97 million tons, and a 12.96% year-on-year decrease [14][19]. - Industrial metals are facing price suppression due to a strong dollar and high interest rates, with LME copper and aluminum prices showing slight declines of 1.61% and 1.51% respectively [16][37]. - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with gold prices slightly increasing by 0.61% to $2652.7 per ounce, amid expectations of continued central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [17][54]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report emphasizes the domestic policy window and the potential for continued monetary easing, suggesting a focus on gold and metal new materials investments [6][13]. Steel Industry - **Supply and Demand**: Rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 1.97 million tons, reflecting a 10.16% decline week-on-week and a 12.96% decline year-on-year [14][19]. - **Inventory**: Total steel inventory has seen a slight week-on-week increase but a significant year-on-year decrease, with social inventory at 767,000 tons [26]. - **Profitability**: There is a notable differentiation in profitability between long and short process rebar production, with long process margins slightly improving while short process margins are declining [29][34]. - **Price Trends**: The overall steel price index has decreased by 0.53%, with specific declines in hot-rolled and medium-thick plate prices [37][38]. New Energy Metals - **Supply**: Lithium carbonate production in November 2024 reached 54,180 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.02%, while nickel pig iron production saw a significant year-on-year decline of 20.05% [15][45]. - **Demand**: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, with November 2024 figures showing a 47.35% year-on-year increase in production [49]. - **Price Trends**: Lithium prices are showing differentiation, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 75,000 yuan per ton, while nickel and cobalt prices are relatively stable [54][55]. Industrial Metals - **Supply and Demand**: The report notes a decrease in global refined copper production and a recovery in scrap copper imports, indicating a mixed supply scenario [16][18]. - **Price Trends**: Industrial metal prices are under pressure, with LME copper and aluminum prices showing slight declines [16][37]. Precious Metals - **Market Dynamics**: Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchasing trends, despite a slight decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17][54].