洁美科技 002859.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 营收稳健增长，离型膜放量在即 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.69/0.91/1.23 元（原 25 年预测为 1.17 元， 主要下调收入及毛利率预测，上调研发费用率预测），根据可比公司 25 年 30 倍 PE 估值水平，对应目标价为 20.70 元，维持给予买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 下游需求复苏不及预期、客户拓展不及预期、国产化率不及预期。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 1,572 | 1,817 | 2,268 | 2,743 | 3,301 | | 同比增长 (%) | 20.8% | 15.6% | 24.8% | 21.0% | 20.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 286 | 216 | 332 | 435 | 591 | | 同比增长 (%) | 60.9% | -24.5% | 53.5% | 31.2% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.11 CNY based on a projected EPS of 2.01, 2.16, and 2.41 CNY for 2025-2027 respectively [4][7]. Core Views - The company's main products are still experiencing a bottoming out in market conditions, but the profitability is supported by the fertilizer and new materials segments, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [11]. - The company achieved a revenue of 34.226 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 25.6%, and a net profit of 3.903 billion CNY, up 9.1% year-on-year [11]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry is currently at a low point in the economic cycle, but the company is leveraging its advantages in product offerings to improve performance [11]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 27.26 billion CNY in 2023, 34.226 billion CNY in 2024, and expected growth to 35.96 billion CNY in 2025, 40.608 billion CNY in 2026, and 41.734 billion CNY in 2027 [6]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to improve from 18.7% in 2024 to 21.3% in 2025, while the net profit margin is expected to stabilize around 11.9% in 2025 [6]. - The report indicates a significant decrease in operating profit in 2023, down 41.8% year-on-year, but forecasts a recovery with a projected increase of 18.6% in 2025 [6].

华鲁恒升 600426.SH 公司研究 | 年报点评 | 盈利基本盘扎实，新材料项目贡献增长 | | --- | 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 目前公司主要产品景气仍在持续磨底，我们根据产品价格及价差情况对公司营收和 利润进行调整，我们预测公司 2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为 2.01、2.16、2.41 元（原 25 年预测为 2.60 元），根据可比公司 25 年 11 倍市盈率，给以公司目标价 22.11 元 并维持买入评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 产品和原材料价格波动风险；项目建设不及预期风险。 | 公司主要财务信息 | | --- | | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 27,260 | 34,226 | 35,960 | 40,608 | 41,734 | | 同比增长 (%) | -9.9% | 25.6% | 5.1% | 12.9% | 2.8% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 4,428 | 5,008 | 5,942 | 6,35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 117.25 CNY based on a projected average PE of 67 for comparable companies in 2025 [2][5][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in earnings per share (EPS), with projections of 1.75 CNY, 2.52 CNY, and 3.29 CNY for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively, reflecting adjustments in main business revenue [2][11]. - The company has experienced a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in 2024, with revenue reaching 3.64 billion CNY (up 59% year-on-year) and net profit at 1.41 billion CNY (up 213% year-on-year) [10]. - The company is a leader in the DDR5 memory interface chip market, with its DDR5 chip shipments surpassing those of DDR4, indicating a strong competitive position [10]. Financial Information Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.29 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.65 billion CNY by 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -38%, 59%, 50%, 37%, and 30% respectively [4]. - **Profitability**: Operating profit is expected to increase from 472 million CNY in 2023 to 4.24 billion CNY in 2027, with significant growth rates of -67%, 199%, 52%, 47%, and 34% [4]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 451 million CNY in 2023 to 3.77 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of -65%, 213%, 42%, 44%, and 31% [4]. - **Earnings Per Share**: EPS is projected to increase from 0.39 CNY in 2023 to 3.29 CNY in 2027 [4]. - **Margins**: The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61.5% by 2027, while the net margin is projected to be approximately 39.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.078 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.7%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 3.98% to 177 million yuan [9] - New orders continued to grow rapidly, with a total of 1.786 billion yuan in new orders signed in 2024, an increase of 18.74% year-on-year, and a backlog of 3.273 billion yuan, up 27.57% year-on-year, providing a solid foundation for future growth [9] - The company emphasizes innovation in drug research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 39% to 172 million yuan in 2024, accounting for 15.9% of revenue [9] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted downwards to 1.98 yuan for 2025 and 2.36 yuan for 2026, with a new estimate of 2.95 yuan for 2027 [2] - The reasonable valuation level for the company is set at a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 29 times for 2025, corresponding to a target price of 57.42 yuan [2] Financial Information Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 1.078 billion yuan in 2024 to 1.753 billion yuan in 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15.7%, 22.0%, 15.6%, and 15.3% [4] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 50.5% to 50.8% from 2025 to 2027, while the net profit margin is projected to improve from 16.8% in 2025 to 18.9% in 2027 [4] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 18.4% in 2025 to 19.6% in 2027 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance in home products and steady growth overseas, with a revenue forecast adjustment for 2024 and an increase in gross margin expectations [3][11] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.91, 1.06, and 1.18 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price set at 17.29 yuan based on a 19x PE for 2025 [3][7] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1,146 million yuan in 2023, with a slight increase to 1,148 million yuan in 2024, and projected revenues of 1,294 million yuan, 1,465 million yuan, and 1,650 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 12.8%, 13.2%, and 12.6% [5][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 63.0% in 2023 to 67.2% in 2024, with a slight decline projected thereafter [5][11] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from 329 million yuan in 2023 to 507 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 30.7%, 5.1%, 12.9%, 16.9%, and 11.2% for the respective years [5][11] - The company’s operating profit is projected to increase from 345 million yuan in 2023 to 547 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34.6%, 9.5%, 9.3%, 19.3%, and 11.1% [5][11] - The company’s net profit margin is expected to rise from 28.7% in 2023 to 30.7% in 2027 [5][11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [7][51]. Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2]. - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51]. - The report highlights that the sales volume of new homes in 44 major cities is approximately 20,000 units, showing a 23% increase month-on-month (excluding the Spring Festival effect), which is higher than the 13% increase in 2024 but lower than the 24% increase in 2023 [51]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15]. Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16]. - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, indicating a slight increase in inventory pressure [23]. Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition and immediate construction" model, Fuzhou's new housing provident fund regulations, and Hainan's increase in maximum loan limits for new self-occupied housing [13][21]. - Nanjing has introduced a government subsidy program to promote housing consumption through "old-for-new" exchanges [21]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares of Poly Developments (600048) and China Merchants Shekou (001979), while suggesting to pay attention to China Resources Land (01109), Yuexiu Property (00123), and others [3][51]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in real estate intermediary platforms like Beike-W (02423) that will benefit from policy support and increased market activity [3][51].

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 04 月 15 日 | 孙国翔 | sunguoxiang@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080009 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860520010001 | | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 外部环境与内部政策共同影响通胀—— | 2025-04-11 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月通胀数据点评 | | | 首次明确平准基金定位，关注稳定资本市 | 2025-04-11 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 14.04 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 17.17 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 840 million CNY, up 14.2% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 800 million CNY, reflecting a 21.1% increase [5][9]. - The company has shown strong performance in property management, with a revenue of 16.49 billion CNY, an increase of 11.7%. The gross profit margin for basic property management improved by nearly 2 percentage points to 10.7%, contributing to an overall gross margin increase [9]. - The company achieved a new annual contract amount of 4.03 billion CNY, with third-party contracts accounting for 92% of the total, indicating a solid market expansion strategy [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 15.63 billion CNY, with a projected increase to 19.05 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.9% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 736 million CNY in 2023 to 1.15 billion CNY in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 36.3% [7]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 11.6% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2025, while the net margin is expected to rise from 4.7% to 6.0% over the same period [7][11]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.4 for 2024, with an expected P/E of 11.3 for 2025 [10]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decrease from 1.2 in 2024 to 1.1 in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation trend [11]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.79 CNY in 2024 to 1.08 CNY in 2025, reflecting strong earnings growth potential [7][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [7][51] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market in Q2 is experiencing a downturn, with a focus on whether unexpected policies will be introduced to stabilize the market [2] - In 2025, under the goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing," it is expected that the relaxation of purchase restrictions in first-tier cities will increase, and urban village renovations will accelerate [3][51] - The report highlights that high-quality land reserves and strong product capabilities in leading cities will provide alpha attributes for real estate companies [3][51] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 15th week, the real estate sector index outperformed both the CSI 300 index and the ChiNext index, with a relative return of 1.2% compared to the CSI 300 index [11] - The CSI 300 index closed at 3750.52 with a weekly decline of 2.9%, while the real estate index (Shenwan) closed at 2190.21 with a weekly decline of 1.7% [11][15] Sales Data - In the 15th week, new home sales in 44 major cities were 14,000 units, a decrease of 28.8% from the previous week, while second-hand home sales in 21 major cities increased by 15.3% to 21,000 units [16] - Inventory in 18 major cities increased to 842,000 units, with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 23.7 months, up by 0.7 months from the previous week [23] Policy Developments - Local policies include Guangzhou's "land acquisition immediately followed by construction" model and adjustments to housing provident fund regulations in various cities [13][21] - The report notes that the issuance of 9.415 billion yuan in special bonds for land reserves in Hunan is aimed at stimulating the market [21] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Poly Developments (600048, Buy) and China Merchants Shekou (001979, Buy) [3][51] - Companies to watch include China Resources Land (01109, Not Rated) and Yuexiu Property (00123, Not Rated) [3][51] Market Trends - The report indicates that the market recovery momentum in 2025 is stronger than in 2024 but weaker than in 2023, with ongoing downward pressure on new home sales [51] - The report emphasizes that the future trajectory of the real estate market will largely depend on the interplay between export performance and economic policies [51]