2025 年 03 月 14 日 胜宏科技(300476.SZ) 长 事件： 3 月 11 日公司发布 2025 年一季度业绩预告，预计归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 78,000 万元–98,000 万元，比上年同期增长 272.12% - 367.54%。 精准把握 AI 历史新机遇，高价值产品订单规模快速上升： 公司坚定深耕 AI 大客户不动摇，精准把握 AI 算力技术革新与数据 中心升级浪潮带来的历史新机遇，占据全球 PCB 制造技术制高点， 凭借研发技术优势、制造技术优势和品质技术优势，驱动公司高价值 量产品的订单规模急速上升，盈利能力进一步增强。2024 年公司高 多层、HDI 实现了量产，并突破超高多层板、高阶 HDI 相结合的新 技术，实现了 PTFE 等新材料的应用。报告期内，公司经营业绩突破 历史新高，净利润同比成倍增长。 产品良率不断提升，高端新品持续突破： 公告披露，公司 2024Q4 开始真正实现大客户量产交付，经过不断的 技术攻关梳理，至 2025Q1 产品良率有明显提高，净利润环比大幅增 长。新产品方面，随着芯片密度提升，公司不断加大 AI 相关的产品 研发，包括高密度高精度的混合 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 15.0 CNY for the next six months [3][8]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a global leader in fiberglass production, with a strong competitive moat and resilience in operations, indicating a recovery in profitability starting in 2024 [1][8]. - The report highlights the expected improvement in demand from the wind power and automotive sectors, which will drive the recovery of fiberglass prices and profitability in 2025 [2][3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, China Jushi Co., Ltd., is a leading fiberglass manufacturer with six production bases globally and an annual production capacity of nearly 3 million tons, ranking first in the world [1][17]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.79% in revenue and 33.52% in net profit from 2010 to 2022 [1][26]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly over the years, establishing a global presence and becoming the largest fiberglass supplier in the U.S. and Egypt [23][24]. - The company has initiated a transition towards smart manufacturing and zero-carbon production, enhancing its competitive edge [17][25]. Operational Performance - In 2023, the company faced challenges with a decline in revenue and net profit due to weakened industry demand and price drops, with revenues of 14.88 billion CNY and a net profit of 3.04 billion CNY [1][26]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2024, with quarterly improvements in revenue and net profit as the market stabilizes [28]. Product Segments - The demand for roving and electronic fabrics is expected to grow, driven by the wind power and automotive sectors, with a projected increase in fiberglass production to 7.56 million tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The electronic fabric segment is poised for recovery in 2025, supported by advancements in AI and increased demand for electronic components [3][6]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 15.93 billion CNY, 19.22 billion CNY, and 20.77 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.04 billion CNY, 3.00 billion CNY, and 3.56 billion CNY [9][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading gross margin of 29.77% in 2023, outperforming its peers [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, suggesting a potential upward trend after a period of adjustment [1][10]. Core Insights - The current market conditions are compared to early April 2024, where a similar pattern of adjustment followed by a rebound is observed. The market is expected to experience a style shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks [1][10]. - The report's style rotation model has signaled a shift towards large-cap stocks, indicating that they may outperform in the near future. The copper-gold ratio is nearing a 10-year low, suggesting that small-cap stocks may face pressure if this ratio begins to rise [2][10]. - The four-wheel drive model highlights sectors such as non-ferrous metals, military industry, and food and beverage as areas of potential investment interest [11]. Summary by Sections Market Highlights - The market has shown signs of stabilization with a three-day upward trend following a minor adjustment. The all-weather timing model has issued a bullish signal, indicating a potential recovery [1][10]. - The report draws parallels between the current market and the situation in early April 2024, suggesting limited downside risk and a higher probability of a gradual upward movement [1][10]. Market Judgment Logic - The style rotation model has confirmed a shift towards large-cap stocks, which are expected to dominate in the upcoming period. The copper-gold ratio's proximity to historical lows may indicate a challenging environment for small-cap stocks [2][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - AstraZeneca's oral selective estrogen receptor degrader (SERD) camizestrant has shown significant clinical improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) for HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients in the SERENA-6 trial, indicating potential market expansion for oral SERDs [4][17]. - Currently, only Menarini's elacestrant is approved for HR+/HER2- breast cancer treatment, while several other oral SERDs, including camizestrant, are in phase 3 trials, suggesting a promising future for this drug class in the domestic market [18]. Summary by Sections New Drug Market Review - From March 3 to March 9, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock performance were: Maibo Pharmaceutical (78.79%), Hengrui Medicine (30.19%), CloudTop New Drug (29.49%), Heyu Biotech (26.04%), and Deqi Medicine (24.90%). The bottom five were: Youzhiyou (-23.28%), Beihai Kangcheng (-13.33%), Junshengtai (-12.17%), Baili Tianheng (-9.44%), and Maiwei Biotech (-7.96%) [3][14]. Key Industry Analysis - AstraZeneca's camizestrant, in combination with CDK4/6 inhibitors, has demonstrated statistically significant improvements in PFS for HR+/HER2- breast cancer patients, marking a breakthrough in first-line treatment options [4][17]. - The report highlights that the oral SERD market is currently underdeveloped in China, with no approved products, but several candidates are in advanced clinical stages, indicating a potential for market growth [18]. New Drug Approval & Acceptance - This week, 64 new drugs received IND approval in China, 39 new drug IND applications were accepted, and 3 new drug NDA applications were accepted [5][21]. Domestic New Drug Industry Highlights - On March 4, BeiGene's anti-PD-1 monoclonal antibody, Tislelizumab, received FDA approval for a new indication in combination with platinum-based chemotherapy for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma expressing PD-L1 [6][30]. - On March 4, the new PD-1, VEGF, and CTLA-4 tri-specific antibody CS2009 from CStone Pharmaceuticals completed its first patient dosing in a global phase 1 clinical trial [6][30]. - On March 7, the siRNA drug SGB-9768 targeting complement C3 from Saintin Biopharma initiated a phase 2 clinical trial in China [10][30].

Economic Framework - The government work report maintains a "steady progress" tone, emphasizing proactive and effective policies for 2025[1] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, with an increase in fiscal funds to CNY 2.9 trillion, reflecting significant policy commitment[1][10] - The GDP growth target is set at around 5%, consistent with previous years, indicating a focus on medium to long-term economic stability[9] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal deficit scale reaches CNY 5.66 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, with a broad deficit rate of 9.3%[10] - Special bonds amount to CNY 4.4 trillion, aimed at infrastructure and local government support[11] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated in Q2 2025[12] - The report emphasizes aligning social financing and money supply growth with economic growth and inflation expectations[12] Technology and Innovation - The focus on technology policy includes support for AI, 6G, and quantum technology, with an emphasis on large-scale application demonstrations[14] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims to enhance the application of AI across various sectors, driving demand in hardware and software[14] Consumption and Demand - Policies to boost consumption include a doubling of the "trade-in" program to CNY 300 billion, targeting the automotive and home appliance sectors[15] - Income mechanisms are being improved to enhance consumer spending capacity, with a focus on service consumption as a new growth point[15] Risk Management - The report highlights a strategy to gradually resolve risks while promoting development, particularly in the real estate sector[16] - Local government debt management will prioritize development over debt reduction, facilitating economic activity recovery[16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy-A" with a target price of 416.07 CNY per share, maintaining the rating [6]. Core Views - BYD's February sales reached 318,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 161% and a month-on-month increase of 7%. The sales of pure electric vehicles were 125,000 units, up 127% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid vehicles sold 193,000 units, up 189% year-on-year [1]. - The launch of intelligent driving models is expected to enhance BYD's competitiveness in the market below 200,000 CNY, driving sales growth and providing significant data and cost advantages [2]. - High-end brands performed as expected, with sales of the Fangchengbao brand reaching 4,942 units, a year-on-year increase of 114%. The Tengshi brand sold 8,513 units, up 85% year-on-year [3]. - Overseas sales reached a record high of 67,000 units in February, a year-on-year increase of 188%, driven by new model launches and increased shipping capacity [3]. - BYD raised approximately 56 billion USD through the placement of H-shares, which will be used for R&D, overseas business development, and working capital [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - February sales of BYD's Dynasty and Ocean series were 150,000 and 152,000 units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 184% and 149% [2]. - The company’s overseas sales in January and February consistently exceeded 60,000 units per month, indicating strong international demand [4]. Financial Outlook - The projected net profits for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are 41.03 billion, 55.02 billion, and 62.12 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24.4, 18.9, and 16.1 [8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue, with expected revenues of 72.25 billion, 84.01 billion, and 94.93 billion CNY for the years 2024 to 2026 [10]. Strategic Initiatives - The funds raised from the H-share placement will support capacity expansion, channel development, and new product launches, enhancing BYD's long-term growth prospects [4]. - The introduction of new models such as the Han L, Tang L, and Tengshi N9 is expected to upgrade the sales structure and improve profitability [8].

Market Indicators - The micro trading temperature index has decreased to 44%, down 5 percentage points from the previous period[12] - The proportion of indicators in the overheated range has dropped to 15%, with only 3 out of 20 indicators classified as overheated[16] - The TL/T long-short ratio has significantly decreased by 55 percentage points to 24%, moving from the overheated to the cold range[20] Institutional Behavior - The fund duration has fallen to 2.87 years, with a 23 percentage point decline in its percentile value, indicating a shift to the cold range[24] - The configuration plate strength has increased by 27 percentage points, moving into the overheated range[23] - The pressure for profit-taking in bond funds has decreased by 18 percentage points to 0%, indicating a cold market[26] Interest Rate Dynamics - The policy interest rate has turned positive for the first time in four months, with the 3-year government bond yield rising from -2 basis points to 2 basis points[26] - The credit spread and the agricultural development bond spread have widened by 8 basis points and 4 basis points, respectively[27] - The average spread among various interest rates has slightly widened from 21 basis points to 22 basis points, with a 2 percentage point increase in its percentile value[27] Price Comparisons - The commodity price ratio has decreased by 9 percentage points to 32%, moving from the neutral to the cold range[28] - The consumer goods price ratio remains in the overheated range at 100%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" with a rating of A [6] Core Insights - The global BTK inhibitor market is projected to reach $12.495 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.25%, primarily driven by the increased market share of BeiGene's Brukinsa [21][22] - BeiGene's Brukinsa has achieved a market share of 21.2% in 2024, ranking third globally, and reached 24.9% in Q4 2024, surpassing AstraZeneca's Acalbrutinib [21][23] - Johnson & Johnson's Imbruvica remains the market leader with a share of 51.1%, while AstraZeneca's Acalbrutinib holds 25.0% [21][22] Weekly New Drug Market Review - From February 24 to March 2, 2025, the top five companies in the new drug sector by stock price increase were: Chuangsheng Group (65.17%), CanSino Biologics (33.64%), Fuhong Hanlin (28.87%), Kexing Pharmaceutical (24.69%), and Yongtai Biological (23.12%) [15][17] - The top five companies by stock price decrease were: WuXi AppTec (-20.33%), Hualing Pharmaceutical (-18.72%), Junsheng Tai (-14.81%), Yiming Oncology (-11.94%), and Ascentage Pharma (-9.41%) [15][17] Weekly New Drug Industry Analysis - The report updates the global BTK inhibitor market size and share based on the latest financial disclosures from companies like Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and Eli Lilly [21] - In Q4 2024, the global BTK inhibitor market size reached $3.329 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.16% [23][26] Weekly New Drug Approval & Acceptance - Three new drugs or new indications were approved for market entry in China this week, with 39 new drugs approved for IND, 33 new drugs accepted for IND, and 10 new drugs accepted for NDA [27][28] Domestic New Drug Industry Highlights - On February 25, 2025, Fosun Pharma's tenapanor, a sodium ion transport protein NHE3 inhibitor, received NMPA approval for controlling hyperphosphatemia in adult patients undergoing dialysis [35] - On February 24, 2025, CanSino Biologics announced a collaboration with Summit Therapeutics for the joint development of the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody injection for various solid tumors [35] - On February 25, 2025, Lino Pharmaceutical's SLN12140 injection for treating primary IgA nephropathy was approved for clinical trials [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 12-month target price of 299.25 CNY [3][4][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 11.93 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 37.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.98 billion CNY, down 3.4% year-over-year [1][3]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 4.92 billion CNY, marking a significant year-over-year growth of 65.9%, although the net profit for the same quarter was 510 million CNY, down 26.3% year-over-year [1][3]. - Domestic sales benefited from government subsidies for replacing old products, while international sales grew rapidly due to optimized sales structures and refined channel layouts [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s Q4 2024 domestic online sales of robotic vacuum cleaners increased by 104% year-over-year, with a similar increase in sales volume [2]. - The estimated growth rate for overseas revenue in Q4 2024 is around 40%, driven by changes in channel structures and proactive market strategies [2]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 10.3%, a decrease of 13.0 percentage points year-over-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from domestic subsidies, with online sales in early 2025 showing a year-over-year increase of 97% [2]. - The company’s strong product capabilities and effective management are anticipated to support future revenue growth [3]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 10.72 CNY, 11.97 CNY, and 13.42 CNY, respectively [3][9]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 25 times [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 21.36 CNY for the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 14.8%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion CNY, up 7.5% year-over-year [1][3]. - In Q4, the company achieved a revenue of 4.13 billion CNY, a year-over-year increase of 6.2%, and a net profit of 270 million CNY, up 9.9% year-over-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from the national subsidy policy for replacing old appliances, which may improve domestic sales in the near future [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q4 external sales continued to grow rapidly, with a year-over-year increase of 14.1%, driven by strong demand for small home appliances and expansion into new product categories [2]. - Domestic sales faced short-term pressure, with a year-over-year decline of 11.2% in Q4, attributed to a lackluster consumer environment in the domestic small appliance market [2]. - The company's Q4 net profit margin improved to 6.4%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to cost reduction measures and favorable exchange rate effects [2]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the company are projected to be 1.29 CNY, 1.42 CNY, and 1.62 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [3][4]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is estimated to be 15 times for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation compared to its earnings growth [3][4].