Group 1: Economic Policy and Trends - The central government is reinforcing "anti-involution" policies to address low nominal economic growth and persistent negative PPI, focusing on eliminating low-price competition and overcapacity[1] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate was 74.10% at the end of Q1 2025, significantly below the historical average of 7.1% since 2018[16] - The PPI growth rate for coal mining and washing, general equipment, specialized equipment, automotive, and pharmaceuticals is at historically low levels, indicating potential "involution" issues in these sectors[17] Group 2: Industry Impact and Investment Opportunities - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" measures include coal mining, chemical raw materials, non-metallic minerals, and automotive manufacturing, which are expected to undergo significant policy scrutiny[17] - Recent price recovery in coal, rebar, and polysilicon suggests that the market has priced in expectations of "anti-involution" policies, presenting potential investment opportunities if policies align with market expectations[28] - If "anti-involution" policies fall short, there is a risk of price corrections in these industries, necessitating caution for investors[28] Group 3: Risks and Economic Challenges - The report highlights external uncertainties, including global trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, which could exacerbate economic challenges[4] - The need for coordinated demand expansion policies alongside supply-side reforms is emphasized to mitigate potential structural pain in industrial production and employment[27] - The real estate sector is undergoing significant adjustments, impacting overall investment momentum and economic growth prospects[27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Insights - The Central Financial Commission's sixth meeting emphasized promoting high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the need for top-level design, increased policy support, and encouraging social capital participation [12][15] - The military industry is expected to see an inflection point in orders as the "Centenary Goal of Building the Army" enters its second half, with new technologies and products representing new market directions that may contain greater elasticity [15] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the defense industry is 1618.51, with a 52-week high of 1712.48 and a low of 1113.62 [1] Market Performance - The military sector indices showed a weekly increase, with the China Securities Military Index rising by 1.47% and the Shenwan Military Index by 1.36% [16] - The top ten performing stocks in the military sector this week included Chengxi Aviation (+24.21%) and China Ship Emergency (+20.23%) [19] Investment Recommendations - Two main investment themes are suggested: 1) Aerospace and "gap-filling" new focuses, including companies like Feilihua, Fenghuo Electronics, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft [15] 2) New technologies, products, and markets with greater elasticity, including Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing and Guangdong Hongda [15] Valuation Levels - As of July 4, 2025, the China Securities Military Index stands at 11391.90, with a PE-TTM valuation of 112.79 and a PB valuation of 3.52 [21][22] Data Tracking - The report includes tracking of private placements and stock incentive data for various military companies, indicating significant fundraising and stock performance [25][27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company covers the entire Android tablet market with its platform chips, launching three new smart processors: A733, A537, and A333, targeting high-end, mid-range, and entry-level segments respectively. This positions the company well to meet diverse demands in the tablet market [4] - The company's AI technology is being widely adopted, with features such as facial recognition and gesture photography gaining recognition from numerous domestic and international tablet brands, establishing a solid foundation for commercial applications of AI [4] - The V821 AI glasses solution has been launched, meeting the demands for low power consumption and miniaturization, with impressive performance metrics [5] Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 29.0 billion, 35.1 billion, and 42.1 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 3.5 billion, 4.9 billion, and 6.7 billion yuan [6] - The company expects significant growth in revenue, with a growth rate of 36.76% for 2024, followed by 26.81%, 20.89%, and 20.14% in subsequent years [8] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.43 yuan, 0.60 yuan, and 0.81 yuan respectively, indicating a strong upward trend [10]

- Model Name: Diffusion Index Model; Model Construction Idea: The model is based on the principle of price momentum; Model Construction Process: The model tracks the weekly changes in the diffusion index of various industries, ranking them based on their diffusion index values. The formula used is $ \text{Diffusion Index} = \frac{\text{Number of Stocks with Positive Momentum}}{\text{Total Number of Stocks}} $; Model Evaluation: The model captures industry trends effectively but may face challenges during market reversals[5][27][28] - Model Name: GRU Factor Model; Model Construction Idea: The model utilizes GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit) deep learning networks to analyze minute-level price and volume data; Model Construction Process: The model ranks industries based on their GRU factor values, which are derived from the GRU network's analysis of trading information. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Model Evaluation: The model performs well in short cycles but may struggle in long cycles or extreme market conditions[6][13][33] - Diffusion Index Model, IR value 2.05%, weekly average return 0.24%, monthly excess return -1.00%, annual excess return 2.05%[25][30] - GRU Factor Model, IR value -4.52%, weekly average return 1.32%, monthly excess return 0.77%, annual excess return -4.52%[32][37] - Factor Name: GRU Industry Factor; Factor Construction Idea: The factor is derived from GRU deep learning networks analyzing minute-level trading data; Factor Construction Process: The factor values are calculated based on the GRU network's output, ranking industries accordingly. The formula used is $ \text{GRU Factor} = \text{GRU Network Output} $; Factor Evaluation: The factor captures short-term trading information effectively but may face challenges in long-term or extreme market conditions[6][13][33] - GRU Industry Factor, IR value -4.52%, weekly average return 1.32%, monthly excess return 0.77%, annual excess return -4.52%[32][37]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Diffusion Index Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model monitors the breadth of market movements and identifies turning points in stock price diffusion[5][38]. - **Model Construction Process**: The diffusion index is calculated based on the relative price movements of constituent stocks over a specific time window. For example, the current diffusion index value of 0.72 is derived from the relative price changes of stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index. The model uses thresholds to signal trading actions: - Left-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, at a value of 0.9850[43]. - Right-side threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 15, 2025, at a value of 0.8975[47]. - Dual moving average method triggered a buy signal on July 3, 2025[48]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies market turning points and provides actionable signals for trading strategies[39]. 2. Model Name: Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects stocks with small market capitalization and low volatility to construct a portfolio[16][35]. - **Model Construction Process**: - Select 50 stocks from the Wind Micro-Cap Index based on small market capitalization and low volatility. - Rebalance the portfolio bi-weekly. - Transaction costs are set at 0.3% for both sides. - Benchmark: Wind Micro-Cap Index (8841431.WI)[16][35]. - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance in 2025, with a year-to-date return of 56.90% and a weekly excess return of 0.04%[16][35]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Diffusion Index Model - Left-side threshold method: Sell signal at 0.9850 on May 8, 2025[43]. - Right-side threshold method: Sell signal at 0.8975 on May 15, 2025[47]. - Dual moving average method: Buy signal on July 3, 2025[48]. 2. Small-Cap Low-Volatility 50 Strategy - 2024 return: 7.07%, excess return: -2.93%[16][35]. - 2025 YTD return: 56.90%, weekly excess return: 0.04%[16][35]. --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: PB Inverse Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the inverse of the price-to-book ratio to identify undervalued stocks[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the inverse of the PB ratio for each stock in the Wind Micro-Cap Index. - Rank the stocks based on this value. - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor shows strong performance with a weekly rank IC of 0.152, significantly above its historical average of 0.034[4][33]. 2. Factor Name: Illiquidity Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the illiquidity of stocks to identify those with higher potential returns[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Measure the average daily turnover over a specific period. - Rank stocks inversely based on their turnover values. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.107, outperforming its historical average of 0.039[4][33]. 3. Factor Name: Profitability Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies stocks with strong profitability metrics[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Use metrics such as ROE or net profit margin to rank stocks. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.085, well above its historical average of 0.022[4][33]. 4. Factor Name: Momentum Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Tracks the momentum of stock prices to identify trends[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the cumulative return over a specific period. - Rank stocks based on their momentum scores. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.069, improving from its historical average of -0.005[4][33]. 5. Factor Name: Leverage Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the financial leverage of companies to identify risk-adjusted opportunities[4][33]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the debt-to-equity ratio for each stock. - Rank stocks based on their leverage levels. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has a weekly rank IC of 0.064, outperforming its historical average of -0.005[4][33]. --- Factor Backtesting Results Top 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. PB Inverse Factor: 0.152 (Historical Average: 0.034)[4][33]. 2. Illiquidity Factor: 0.107 (Historical Average: 0.039)[4][33]. 3. Profitability Factor: 0.085 (Historical Average: 0.022)[4][33]. 4. Momentum Factor: 0.069 (Historical Average: -0.005)[4][33]. 5. Leverage Factor: 0.064 (Historical Average: -0.005)[4][33]. Bottom 5 Factors (Weekly Rank IC) 1. Turnover Factor: -0.186 (Historical Average: -0.081)[4][33]. 2. Residual Volatility Factor: -0.154 (Historical Average: -0.040)[4][33]. 3. 10-Day Return Factor: -0.153 (Historical Average: -0.062)[4][33]. 4. 1-Year Volatility Factor: -0.153 (Historical Average: -0.033)[4][33]. 5. 10-Day Free Float Turnover Factor: -0.132 (Historical Average: -0.061)[4][33].

Employment Data - The unemployment rate in the U.S. unexpectedly decreased to 4.1% in June 2025, with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added, surpassing market expectations[9] - Nearly half of the new jobs were contributed by local governments, with 60,000 potentially affected by seasonal adjustments in the education sector[1] - The average wage growth in June was lower than expected, indicating a loosening labor market[1] Economic Outlook - The overall employment market appears weaker than suggested by the unemployment rate and job additions, with declining wage growth and PMI survey data[1] - Due to prior inventory replenishment effects and weakened demand, the impact of tariffs on inflation may be less significant than anticipated[1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in September, October, and December 2025[1] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected increases in goods prices due to tariffs, higher-than-expected tariff rates, significant energy price hikes from international conflicts, stricter immigration policies, and unexpected labor supply shortages in the U.S.[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7] Core Insights - The acquisition of a 53.74% stake in Hebei Chuguang Automotive Parts Co., Ltd. marks a new chapter in the development of automotive perception technology, with the transaction valued at RMB 288 million [2][3] - The acquisition will enhance the company's core competitiveness in acoustic system solutions, integrating technology and resources to drive the upgrade of automotive intelligence [3][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 31.15 billion, RMB 34.95 billion, and RMB 39.20 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 2.44 billion, RMB 2.94 billion, and RMB 3.49 billion [7][9] Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 34% for 2024, followed by 14% for 2025, and 12% for 2026 and 2027 [9][12] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.53, RMB 2.04, RMB 2.46, and RMB 2.91 for the years 2024 to 2027 respectively [9][12] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 18x, 15x, and 12x respectively [7][12]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company, Wuchan Zhongda Energy, is a state-owned enterprise in Zhejiang Province, transitioning from coal circulation to an integrated environmental energy service provider. It has a history dating back to 1950 and has expanded into the renewable energy sector since 2022 [4][14]. - The coal circulation business is stable, with the company leveraging its procurement advantages and technological capabilities to provide integrated services to suppliers and customers [36]. - The company operates six thermal power plants with a total installed capacity of 407 MW, focusing on stable demand in the Zhejiang region. It is also exploring waste disposal technologies [5][43]. - In the renewable energy sector, the company is advancing molten salt energy storage technology, which is expected to see significant growth in the coming years [49]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 12.77 CNY - Total shares: 5.58 billion - Total market capitalization: 71 billion CNY - Debt-to-asset ratio: 44.0% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 9.67 [3]. Business Segments - **Coal Circulation**: The primary revenue driver, accounting for 92.8% of revenue in 2024. The business is characterized by low margins but high turnover [26][36]. - **Thermal Power Generation**: The company has a stable demand in the Zhejiang region, with significant sales growth in steam and electricity [43][45]. - **Renewable Energy**: Focused on molten salt storage technology, with expected growth in installed capacity and investment [49]. Financial Forecasts - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 452.7 billion, 458.2 billion, and 463.6 billion CNY, respectively. Net profits are expected to be 7.9 billion, 8.5 billion, and 9.1 billion CNY, with a CAGR of 7.5% [6][57]. - The diluted EPS for the same period is forecasted at 1.42, 1.52, and 1.64 CNY [6][57]. Valuation and Rating - The company’s stock is expected to trade at PE multiples of 9, 8, and 8 times for the years 2025-2027, respectively. The report suggests a "Buy" rating based on the potential for further value expansion in thermal power assets [59].

Market Performance Review - A-shares continued to rise, with major indices except for the Sci-Tech 50 showing gains, particularly the CSI 300 which increased by 1.54%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 rose by 0.81% and 0.56% respectively, indicating relatively weaker performance [3][12] - All style indices experienced gains, with the financial style leading at 1.86%, while the growth style saw a significant decline compared to the previous week [3][12] - Both large and mid-cap indices outperformed small-cap indices, with the core asset indices, namely the "Mao" index and "Ning" combination, also showing increases of 1.15% and 2.23% respectively [3][12] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index remained stable, reporting a 7-day moving average of 9.49% as of July 5, down from 9.57% on June 28, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more regular trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume as a percentage of total A-share trading has decreased, reflecting a decline in investor enthusiasm, although there was a net inflow trend in financing this week [20][22] Industry Rotation and Dividend Value Tracking - The current market is characterized by "high speed and low intensity" in industry rotation, suggesting a sideways market trend with an average duration of about two months [23][24] - The dividend yield model indicates that pure dividend assets, particularly bank stocks, remain attractive in the context of potential further declines in domestic credit spreads following interest rate cuts [25][28] Future Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report anticipates that A-shares may experience a period of consolidation as key external factors stabilize, with a focus on internal fundamentals [30][32] - The recommended investment strategy includes a "barbell strategy" that emphasizes both high-dividend stocks in sectors like banking, railways, and utilities, as well as growth opportunities in TMT sectors such as AI applications and computing power chains [5][32]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody business development (BD) expectations are driving a sustained surge in the innovative drug market. AstraZeneca is in talks for a potential deal worth up to $15 billion with Summit Therapeutics for the PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody AK112, indicating strong recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs) for this class of drugs [5][14] - The successful launch of Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody marks a harvest period for innovative drugs in the gout field, with the market for anti-gout drugs in China expected to grow from 2.2 billion yuan in 2024 to over 10 billion yuan by 2030 [6][32] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector has seen a 3.64% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.1 percentage points, ranking 4th among 31 sub-industries [7][41] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report discusses the ongoing excitement in the innovative drug market driven by the PD-(L)1/VEGF bispecific antibody BD expectations and the successful market entry of Vuxin Qibai monoclonal antibody [5][6][14] Subsector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector rose by 3.64%, with other biopharmaceuticals showing the highest increase of 8.28%. The medical device sector experienced the largest decline at 0.21% [7][41][44] Recommended and Benefiting Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Innovative drugs: Xinda Biopharma, Kangfang Biopharma, and others - Medical devices: Yingke Medical, Maipu Medical, and others - Benefiting stocks: Innovative drugs in H-shares and A-shares, including Zai Lab, Yifang Biopharma, and others [8][40][51]