- The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index is constructed using the Paasche weighted method and is calculated daily on a chained basis[3][11][39] - The index selects stocks from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that meet specific criteria, such as being involved in consumer-related industries (e.g., apparel, jewelry, home appliances, food and beverages) and having mutual market access qualifications[43] - The index excludes stocks with abnormal price fluctuations, significant financial issues, or major operational problems in the past year[43] - The index selects the top 50 stocks based on the highest average daily market capitalization over the past year, after removing the bottom 10% in terms of average daily trading volume[43] - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index has a cumulative return of 24.22% since its base date (December 31, 2014) as of September 16, 2025, outperforming the Hang Seng Equal Weight Index (-7.82%) and the Hang Seng Index (12.00%)[71] - The index's PE (TTM) ratio is 19.30 as of September 16, 2025, which is lower than 80.88% of the time since its launch on April 11, 2022, indicating a relatively undervalued state[75][77]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a volatile rise, with all three major indices increasing, particularly the Sci-Tech 50 which rose over 3% [2][4] - The semiconductor industry chain has replaced AI hardware as the core focus of the market today, benefiting from advancements in chip self-sufficiency [4][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.80%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.28%. The Sci-Tech 50 saw a significant increase of 3.49%, with a total market turnover of 2.35 trillion yuan and 4,457 stocks rising [2][7] - In terms of sector performance, the power and new energy equipment sector increased by 2.77%, electronics by 2.65%, and computers by 2.53%. Conversely, banking and coal sectors saw declines of 0.32% and 0.29% respectively [7] Industry Highlights - The semiconductor sector led the gains, with semiconductor silicon wafers up by 7.57%, semiconductor equipment by 6.26%, and wafer industry by 6.02% [7] - The market is driven by continuous catalysts in the technology sector, including the public unveiling of extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine parameters by Shanghai Micro Electronics [7] Future Outlook - The report maintains a bullish outlook on the Chinese stock market, expecting a bull market driven by ample liquidity and gradual recovery in fundamentals, drawing parallels to previous bull markets in 1999, 2014, and 2019 [7] - Short-term focus should be on sectors with improving revenue growth and gross margins, such as fiberglass, cement, and fine chemicals, while also considering technology growth areas like lithium batteries and military technology [7]

从林清轩看 化妆品品牌何以差异化突围 长江证券研究所商贸零售研究小组 2025-09-24 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 李锦 分析师 罗祎 联系人 曾维朵 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514080004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080019 SFC执业证书编号：BUV258 %% %% %% %% %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 行业：行业增速平稳，精选细分赛道机会 02 林清轩：差异化品类&成分&客群突围 03 投资建议：精选细分赛道机遇 目 录 04 风险提示 %% research.95579.com 3 01 行业：行业增速平稳，精选细分赛道机会 research.95579.com 4 行业：行业增速平稳，精选细分赛道机会 01 ◼ 化妆品行业增速当前回落至平稳增长区间。社零数据来看，限额以上化妆品增速由2020年的双位数增长回落至个位数平稳区间， 2025年1-6月同比小幅增长3%；线上数据来看，淘系及抖音美妆大盘增速同样趋于稳健 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term demand expectations as a key driver for valuation and performance in the lithium battery and photovoltaic sectors [24][28] - It highlights the significant impact of short-term marginal conditions, particularly pricing and production/output data, on market sentiment and stock performance [41][48] Summary by Sections 1. Stock Price Review - The lithium battery market began its upward trend in late 2019, driven by European carbon emission assessments and the rise of new energy vehicle consumption in China [11] - The photovoltaic market saw significant growth from 2020 to 2021 due to global carbon reduction targets and supply constraints, leading to a surge in prices and stock performance [15] - The inverter segment experienced explosive growth driven by demand from energy storage solutions, but faced a sharp decline in 2023 due to inventory issues [19] 2. Key Drivers - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Lithium Batteries** - The report notes that the adjustment of long-term demand expectations directly influences performance and valuation, with significant growth observed in 2020 due to rising demand for new energy vehicles [24] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Photovoltaics** - The report indicates that from 2020 to 2021, demand expectations for photovoltaics were revised upwards, leading to a bullish market sentiment, but concerns about peak demand in 2023 led to a decline in valuations [29] - **Long-term Demand Expectations - Inverters** - The inverter market's performance was closely tied to demand expectations, with significant growth in 2022 driven by European energy needs, but a subsequent drop in orders in 2023 [33] 3. Short-term Marginal Conditions - **Pricing** - The report highlights that price changes in lithium and silicon materials significantly affect stock prices, with stock prices often leading material price increases [41] - **Production/Output** - Monthly production and shipment data are critical indicators for stock performance, particularly in the energy storage sector, where visibility is limited [48] - **Quarterly Profit Growth Expectations** - Market participants often use quarterly profit growth expectations to gauge industry health, with stock prices typically peaking ahead of profit expectations [49] 4. Other Insights - The report notes that valuation levels are not the primary indicators of market peaks, as fundamental expectations play a more crucial role in determining market trends [59] 5. Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the energy storage market, projecting significant growth in global installations driven by improved demand expectations and favorable market conditions [62][65]

联合研究丨行业深度 [Table_Title] 工业硅深度：消费久进击，蓄力乘风起 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 工业硅是硅产业链的起点，是典型的高耗能行业，其下游主要为多晶硅、有机硅和硅铝合金， 上一轮景气高点后，新产能投放过多导致行业供给过剩，行业景气已触底。展望未来，需求端， 光伏装机平稳，多晶硅增速平缓，有机硅需求韧性十足，在新领域持续提高渗透率，硅铝合金 需求整体持稳；供给端，海外产能增长停滞，国内中小产能有望出清，行业供给侧压力或将减 轻，库存虽仍在高位但增速放缓，"反内卷"背景下，工业硅作为硅产业链的上游，或将复刻多 晶硅反内卷的成功经验，建议关注工业硅相关标的合盛硅业、新安股份和兴发集团。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 邬博华 曹海花 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BQK482 李禹默 徐静 SAC：S0490525060002 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the optical module sector, indicating that the actual performance PE of leading companies is significantly lower than the consensus expected PE, suggesting room for upward valuation adjustments [3][6]. Core Insights - The current AI-driven market for optical modules shows a rapid amplification effect similar to the "Davis Double Play" seen in the consumer electronics sector, alongside attributes of "profit exceeding expectations and valuation mismatch" observed in the renewable energy sector, indicating both explosive growth potential and sustainability [3][6]. - The report highlights that the leading companies in the optical module market, such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication, have experienced substantial rebounds in their stock prices, with respective increases of 481%, 607%, and 305% from their year-to-date lows [6]. - The anticipated performance PE for these companies from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 52/36/30x for Zhongji Xuchuang, 44/29/24x for Xinyi Technology, and 69/50/39x for Tianfu Communication, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [6]. Summary by Sections Vertical Analysis - The report discusses the varying performance of leading companies in different market cycles, noting that the AI model training has led to a surge in computing power demand, significantly elevating the valuations of these companies [8]. - The actual performance PE of leading companies is currently underestimated compared to their expected performance PE, with Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Technology, and Tianfu Communication showing potential increases of 167%, 129%, and 103% respectively [8]. Horizontal Analysis - The report compares the optical module sector with consumer electronics and renewable energy sectors, emphasizing that the current market dynamics are driven by AI computing demand, which is distinct from the product-driven cycles seen in consumer electronics and policy-driven cycles in renewable energy [8]. - The optical module sector is characterized by a robust technological advantage and manufacturing capability, positioning it for sustained growth compared to its peers [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a reevaluation of leading optical module companies, highlighting the need for market participants to recognize the significant upside potential in their valuations as the demand for optical modules continues to rise due to increased ASIC usage and ongoing technological advancements [3][6].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a collective decline on September 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Index down by 0.70% to 26,159.12, the Hang Seng Tech Index down by 1.45% to 6,167.06, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.86% to 9,290.34 [3][6][10] - The market's total trading volume reached HKD 294.56 billion, with southbound funds recording a net sell of HKD 4.069 billion [3][10] - The industrial sector saw a notable shift, with the Hong Kong banking sector (+0.77%) and public utilities (+0.25%) gaining favor, while hardware equipment (-1.84%) and food and beverage (-1.94%) sectors faced declines [6][10] Industry Analysis - The Minister of Industry and Information Technology highlighted new industrial opportunities at the 25th China International Industry Fair, which positively impacted the Hong Kong machinery sector, leading to a strong performance [10] - A significant rotation in market preferences was observed, with defensive sectors like banking and public utilities attracting investment, while previously high-performing sectors like hardware equipment faced profit-taking [10] - Future growth in the Hong Kong market may be driven by AI technology and new consumption trends, with expectations of continued inflows from southbound funds and improved liquidity from potential U.S. interest rate cuts [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that despite market fluctuations, the bullish trend in the A-share market remains intact, with expectations of a "slow bull" market in the future [6][14][15] - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a slight decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.29%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.21% [6][9][14] - Key sectors leading the market today include banking (+1.53%), coal (+1.15%), and public utilities (+0.41%), while sectors such as social services (-3.53%) and computing (-2.54%) faced declines [9][14][15] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that the market's short-term performance is influenced by micro liquidity and market sentiment, with stable sectors like banking and coal showing strength [14][15] - It suggests that the market is likely to maintain relative strength due to ample liquidity, with long-term capital entering the market, potentially leading to a "slow bull" trend [14][15] - The report outlines a focus on sectors with improving revenue growth and gross margins, such as fiberglass, cement, and fine chemicals, as well as technology growth areas like AI computing and robotics [14][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper packaging industry, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the relevant market index over the next 12 months [10]. Core Insights - The paper packaging market in China is characterized by low concentration, intense competition, and low profit margins. Leading companies possess better customer resources and capabilities for international expansion, with overseas revenue growth outpacing domestic growth. The report anticipates a 2-3 year period of overseas investment dividends, driven by the first-mover advantage of leading companies, strong customer bases, and funding advantages [2][6][25]. Summary by Sections Background: Supply Chain Transition and Advantages of Leading Companies - The trend of paper packaging companies expanding overseas is evident, with leading firms showing higher overseas revenue growth compared to domestic figures. For instance, in the first half of 2025, Yutong's overseas revenue grew by 27% while domestic revenue declined by 2%. Similarly, Meiyingsen's overseas revenue increased by 39% while domestic revenue fell by 6% [6][16]. - The competitive landscape in China's paper packaging market is fragmented, with a CR5 of approximately 15%. Leading companies like Yutong hold about 6% market share, facing pressure from smaller firms employing aggressive pricing strategies [7][25]. Outlook: Increased Overseas Revenue Share and Optimized Profit Structure - The profitability of domestic leading paper packaging companies is higher than that of local competitors in markets like India. For example, Yutong's net profit margin of 21.7% in the first half of 2024 surpassed that of TCPL, India's largest folding carton producer, which had a net profit margin of about 8% [8][33]. - The report highlights that overseas markets present opportunities for premium pricing due to supply-demand mismatches, particularly in emerging manufacturing bases where local companies struggle to meet the quality and compliance standards required by multinational brands [9][46]. Competitive Advantages of Leading Companies - Leading companies have established multiple overseas bases, enhancing their ability to meet customer needs and reduce delivery times. For instance, Yutong has set up 10 overseas bases in countries like Vietnam and India [28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advantages, funding capabilities, and compliance with international standards, which smaller firms often lack. Leading companies can leverage their established relationships with major clients to mitigate risks associated with international expansion [32][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.149 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.75%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 14 million yuan, a decrease of 30.01% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was -26 million yuan [2][4]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 757 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 59.83%, with a net profit of 52 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 228.07% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit for Q2 was 30 million yuan, a remarkable growth of 1209.65% [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company's energy storage and power sales reached 1.328 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 132.57%. The revenue from energy storage business was 1.008 billion yuan, up 18.77% year-on-year, driven by inventory depletion and recovery in European household storage. The gross margin was 21.28%, significantly down due to product price declines and increased costs from changes in export tax rebate policies [10]. - Other product revenue for H1 was 134 million yuan, a staggering increase of 1751.38%, primarily due to rapid growth in domestic two-wheeled vehicle battery swapping and sodium battery power sources. The gross margin for these products was -4.87% [10]. - In Q2 2025, energy storage and power sales were 0.927 GWh, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 131.17%. The gross margin improved to 20.61%, up 6.32 percentage points from the previous quarter, as operating expenses and fixed costs were diluted [10]. Future Outlook - The company's fundamental turning point has been established, with expectations for growth in overseas industrial storage and emerging markets such as Japan. Domestic lightweight power is also expected to maintain high growth, keeping the shipment side optimistic. The company anticipates net profits of 230 million yuan and 430 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 62 and 33 [10].