丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash， 关注大模型降本与商业化落地进展 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 18 日，谷歌正式发布 Gemini 3.0 Flash，旨在用更低的成本提供前沿的智能水平，面向 所有用户推出。我们认为基模是模型家族的根基，Flash 版本强的核心还是建立在强基模的基 础上进行蒸馏。当前时点 AI 行业进入商业化落地阶段，成本仍是限制用户使用的核心因素，因 此降本是产业的系统性工作与大趋势。从变现角度来说，AI 的变现还是依赖现有互联网商业模 式，过往生态依然重要、头部玩家马太效应更加显著，也是这一轮 AI 商业化落地的关键。 分析师及联系人 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title AI 产业跟踪：谷歌正式发布 2] Gemini 3.0 Fl ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原 生 AI 垂类应用突破点 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式宣布旗下 AI 健康应用"AQ"完成品牌升级，全新命名为"蚂蚁阿 福"，目前月活跃用户已经达到 1500 万，稳居健康管理类 AI 应用首位。当前时点，医疗信息 化正从 B 端建设迈向 C 端价值再造的新阶段，放眼全球，AI+Healthcare 也是巨头重点投资方 向， AI 医疗有望成为 AI 垂类应用破局点，建议重点关注具备场景卡位优势与技术落地能力的 医疗信息化龙头。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 宗建树 刘思缘 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 蚂蚁阿福验证赛道高景气，医疗或将成为原生 2] AI 垂类应用突破点 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 12 月 15 日，蚂蚁集团正式 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨四川路桥（600039.SH） [Table_Title] 大股东蜀道新董事长到位，关注公司红利价值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 17 日下午，蜀道投资集团有限责任公司召开干部大会，任命张胜同志任蜀道投资集团有 限责任公司党委书记、董事长。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_scodeMsg2] 四川路桥（600039.SH） cjzqdt11111 research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 [Table_Title2] 大股东蜀道新董事长到位，关注公司红利价值 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 公司拟以支付现金 6.28 亿元的方式收购关联方新筑股份持有的新筑交科 100%股权、新筑股 份其它与桥梁功能部件业务有关的资产和 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨建筑与工程 [Table_Title] 基建投资增速连续下滑，水利投资降幅扩大 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 统计局发布经济数据，11 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 9.7%，降幅环比扩大 1.1pct，广义基建 投资单月下滑 8.3%，降幅环比扩大 0.2pct。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 SAC：S0490520080022 SAC：S0490522060005 SAC：S0490525070008 SAC：S0490525080003 SFC：BUT917 张弛 张智杰 袁志芃 龚子逸 建筑与工程 cjzqdt11111 1、项目转化不及预期； 2、实物工作量推进不及预期。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-12-21 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Title2] 基建投资增速连续下滑，水利投资降幅扩大 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 统计局发布经济数据，11 月，狭义基建投资单月下滑 9.7%，降幅环比 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8]. Core Insights - The report analyzes how Wuliangye navigated through a pricing crisis from 2013 to 2015, facing challenges such as declining demand, high inventory, severe price inversion, and low willingness of distributors to make payments. Various strategies were employed to stabilize market prices, but in 2014, the pricing issue persisted. A reasonable adjustment of payment prices was identified as the first step to resolving the price inversion, but comprehensive supply-demand adjustments, including inventory control and marketing reforms, were necessary for long-term solutions [2][4][13]. Summary by Sections 2013: Price Increase Amidst Challenges - In 2013, Wuliangye attempted to maintain brand strength by raising the factory price to 729 yuan, but due to weak demand, they provided a rebate of 70 yuan to distributors, effectively lowering the price to 659 yuan. However, the average market price remained around 580 yuan, leading to reduced payment willingness from distributors [5][15]. 2014: Diverse Subsidy Policies but Continued Price Inversion - In 2014, Wuliangye implemented various measures to address the price inversion, including a dynamic price protection mechanism and a focus on core distributors. Despite these efforts, reliance on core distributors limited the ability to fully develop channel resources. The factory price was directly lowered to 609 yuan in May, but further increases in quotas led to additional price declines, indicating that merely increasing subsidies was insufficient to resolve the issue [6][19]. 2015: Clear Inventory Control and System Reform - In 2015, Wuliangye emphasized inventory control as a key strategy, stating that the total supply would not increase compared to 2014. Internal reforms were initiated to localize marketing personnel and marketize sales staff compensation, transforming them into market-oriented roles. A comprehensive market management system was established, leading to successful price stabilization during peak sales periods in 2015 [7][21].

世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 通胀压力下，降息预期上 丨证券研究报告丨 ——美国 11 月 CPI 数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 11 月，美国整体通胀大幅低于预期。具体来看：1）食品与能源价格走势分化；2）服 装、二手车通胀降温，核心商品通胀压力可控；3）住房通胀降温，核心服务通胀压力可控。往 前看，1）就业疲软暂无加速迹象，关税的低预期为美联储决策留下充足空间，我们维持此前对 于美联储 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的判断；2）明年 5 月美联储主席换届，特朗普大概率提名鸽 派候选人就任，后续视经济情况择机再度开启降息可能性较大，年内预计累计降息至少 50BP。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 通胀压力下，降息预期上 2] ——美国 11 月 CPI 数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美 ...

Core Insights - The media industry is driven by content, leading to a market evolution from "policy recovery" to "expected fundamental improvement" and then to "performance realization and valuation enhancement" [3][6] - The report is optimistic about two segments: gaming and film, highlighting the potential for long-term operations and competition against major players to reshape gaming valuations, and the recovery of the film sector post-policy changes [3][6] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is expected to see sustained performance growth driven by new game releases in 2025, with a focus on long-term operations and a shift from "chasing hits" to "nurturing evergreen" titles [7][18] - The gaming industry's valuation is recovering, with the current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio around 27x, indicating a return to a reasonable range after a period of low valuations [18][22] - The introduction of AI in gaming is anticipated to enhance user engagement and extend gameplay duration, contributing to long-term growth [7][28] Film Sector - The film industry is poised for recovery following the implementation of the "21 Regulations" by the broadcasting authority, which is expected to revitalize content production and performance realization starting in the second half of 2026 [8][18] - Current film sector performance is compared to the gaming sector in 2022, suggesting a similar trajectory of recovery and growth potential [8][18] AI Applications - The commercialization of AI applications is accelerating, with expectations for a significant turning point in 2026, particularly in AI comic and advertising sectors [9][18] - AI comic production is seen as advantageous due to rapid content iteration and cost control, with companies like Kuaishou positioned to benefit [9][18] - The AI+ advertising model has been successfully implemented globally, with major players like Tencent and Bilibili expected to replicate this success domestically [9][18]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a significant recovery with all major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index which increased by over 3% [2][4] - The telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and insurance sectors led the gains, with the telecommunications sector rising by 5% [7][4] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, with 3,623 stocks rising across the market [2][7] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.19%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.39% [2][7] - Other indices such as the CSI 300 and the STAR 50 also saw increases of 1.83% and 2.47% respectively [2][7] - The market's strong performance was driven by a recovery in market sentiment and a surge in financial stocks [7] Sector Analysis - Key sectors that performed well included telecommunications (+5.0%), metal materials and mining (+2.7%), electronics (+2.7%), and insurance (+2.2%) [7][4] - Concepts such as CPO (+6.59%), lithium mining (+6.39%), and optical communication (+5.03%) also showed strong gains [7] - Conversely, sectors like defense and military, agricultural products, and coal experienced declines [7] Market Drivers - The market's upward movement was attributed to expectations of continued overseas liquidity easing and a reduction in Japan's interest rate hike expectations [7] - The launch of a second domestic GPU stock on the STAR Market also contributed positively to market sentiment [7] - The insurance sector's performance was bolstered by the "opening red" strategy, leading to increased premium income for leading insurance companies [7] Future Outlook - A slow bull market is anticipated, with Chinese assets likely to undergo further revaluation [7] - The transition from traditional real estate-driven economic demand to new productive forces is expected to gradually uplift economic impacts [7] - Investment strategies should focus on sectors creating new demand through technological advancements, such as AI and robotics, and on scarce resources benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [7]

行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] L3 级自动驾驶获批上路，我国智能网联汽车迈 向"量产应用"新阶段 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 12 月 15 日，根据有关规定，工业和信息化部于第 401 批公告附条件许可了两款 L3 级自动驾 驶（有条件自动驾驶）车型产品。此次首批 L3 级车型获得准入许可，意味着我国智能网联汽车 迈入量产应用新阶段。随着试点工作的逐步推进，智能网联汽车产品准入管理和法规标准体系 有望持续完善，进而加速自动驾驶技术的规模化、商业化应用，进而惠及全产业链。建议关注： 1）智能驾驶算法提供商；2）智能驾驶相关硬件提供商；3）Robotaxi 运营平台。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 丨证券研究报告丨 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title L3 级自动驾驶获批上路，我国智能网联汽车迈 2] 向"量产应用"新阶 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In November, the issuance of game licenses reached a new high, with 184 licenses granted, including 178 domestic and 6 imported games, surpassing the previous record since the resumption of license issuance in 2022 [10][11] - Major self-developed games from leading companies continue to perform well overseas, with Point Point Interactive's "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" ranking first and second in the November overseas mobile game revenue chart [10][11] - A new product cycle is approaching as key new games from listed companies are set to launch, with significant titles scheduled for testing and release in December [6][10] Summary by Sections Game License Issuance - In November, a total of 184 game licenses were issued, setting a new monthly record for domestic licenses, with notable approvals for games from Perfect World, Kaixin, and Bilibili [10][11] - Year-to-date, 1,532 domestic game licenses have been issued, exceeding the total of 1,306 for the entire year of 2024 [10] Overseas Performance - The overseas performance of top self-developed games remains strong, with "Whiteout Survival" achieving over $3.8 billion in cumulative revenue and "Kingshot" exceeding $640 million [10][11] - The casual merge game "Tasty Travels: Merge Game" saw a 10% revenue increase in November, ranking fourth in the global merge game revenue chart [10] Upcoming Game Releases - Key new games from listed companies are set to launch, including Giant Network's "Famous General Kill" on December 19 and G-bits' "Nine Muxi" on December 18 [6][10] - Other notable upcoming titles include Tencent's "Counter-Strike: Future" scheduled for January 13, 2026, with over 25 million pre-registrations [6][10]