Market Review - Convertible bonds have continued to rise alongside equities, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.74% in July, while the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 2.87%, underperforming equities by 0.87 percentage points [8][15] - The average closing price of convertible bonds reached 140.73 yuan as of July 31, marking a 4.44% increase from the end of June and a new high for 2023 [15][17] - The average conversion premium for convertible bonds was 39.20%, with a weighted average of 40.08%, both at the lowest levels since January 2023 [17][19] Strategy Layout - The recommended strategy involves a non-typical barbell approach, focusing on sectors such as military industry, AI computing power, and low-altitude economy, while also including low-volatility dividends and high-cost performance varieties to navigate potential market fluctuations [3][37] - The previous convertible bond selection yielded a return of 19.46% from May to July, significantly outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index's 8.17% increase, with all holdings generating positive returns [36][37] - The report suggests maintaining the barbell strategy, emphasizing high-quality stocks in popular themes and low-priced convertible bonds to enhance defensive positions [3][37] Changes in Holder Structure - As of July 2025, the total market for convertible bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 399.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.297 billion yuan from the previous month [2][24] - The top five holders of convertible bonds included public funds (1,419.79 billion yuan, 36%), corporate annuities (734.97 billion yuan, 18%), and insurance institutions (353.05 billion yuan, 9%) [2][24] - On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the total market for convertible bonds was 318.65 billion yuan, with public funds increasing their holdings by 8.115 billion yuan [2][24] Primary Market Dynamics - In July, nine new convertible bonds were listed, with four exceeding 1 billion yuan in issuance, indicating a positive market sentiment towards new issues [31][32] - The report notes that all new bonds had initial prices above 127 yuan, reflecting strong demand [31][32] - Several companies have received approval for convertible bond issuance, with ongoing applications and proposals in various stages of the approval process [31][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated robust performance with revenue and profit exceeding expectations, achieving a revenue of 17.087 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of 1.287 billion RMB, up 33.2% year-on-year [1][3]. - The food segment showed strong growth, with revenue of 5.382 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a profit of 190 million RMB, up 32.1% year-on-year [1]. - The beverage segment also performed well, generating revenue of 10.788 billion RMB in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, with notable growth in tea beverages [2]. Summary by Sections Food Business - The food division's revenue reached 5.382 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting an 8.8% increase year-on-year, contributing 31.5% to total revenue [1]. - Key products like "Soup Master" and "Unified Old Pickled Cabbage Beef Noodles" showed steady growth, with "Eggplant King" achieving double-digit growth and "Full Han Feast" seeing high double-digit growth [1]. Beverage Business - The beverage segment generated 10.788 billion RMB in H1 2025, a 7.6% year-on-year increase, accounting for 63.1% of total revenue [2]. - Revenue from tea beverages, juice, and milk tea reached 5.068 billion, 1.821 billion, and 3.398 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 1.7%, and 3.5% [2]. - The beverage division's profit was 1.544 billion RMB, up 25.4% year-on-year [2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 34.3% in H1 2025, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by sales growth and a decrease in raw material prices [2]. - The net profit margin improved significantly to 7.5%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, due to revenue growth, improved gross margin, and reduced expense ratios [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady performance with a projected net profit growth of 24.3%, 13.4%, and 11.7% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, reaching 2.299 billion, 2.608 billion, and 2.914 billion RMB respectively [3]. - The strong demand for instant noodles and beverages, along with effective market expansion strategies, positions the company well for future growth [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report emphasizes the importance of grasping economic trends and capitalizing on low-level rebounds in the market for August 2025 [2][4] - In July, despite facing multiple variables such as tariff negotiations and Federal Reserve meetings, market sentiment remained strong, with major indices reaching new highs for the year [3] - The core contradiction in the market is expected to focus on internal factors, with a stable demand-side growth policy and supply-side adjustments anticipated to drive profitability improvements [3][4] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual approach to investment: focusing on high-probability sectors supported by economic trends, such as military, pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment, while also seeking potential rebound opportunities in sectors like semiconductors and robotics [4] - For the banking sector, specifically Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, the report forecasts net profits of 47.71 billion, 50.88 billion, and 54.566 billion CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 5.42%, 6.64%, and 7.24% respectively [4][5] - In the tungsten industry, the report indicates that strong demand for replenishment and export recovery are expected to support tungsten prices, with recommendations for companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry [8] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Haiguang Information reported a 45.21% year-on-year increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 5.464 billion CNY, and a 40.78% increase in net profit, amounting to 1.201 billion CNY, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] - Xinyi Solar's performance in H1 2025 was under pressure due to a significant drop in photovoltaic glass prices, with projected revenues of 20.5 billion, 24.3 billion, and 28.2 billion CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting a year-on-year growth of -6.6%, 18.8%, and 15.9% respectively [9] - Times Angel is expected to achieve a net profit of 13.4 to 14.8 million USD in H1 2025, marking a substantial year-on-year growth of 538.1% to 604.8%, driven by overseas market expansion and lower operational costs [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Views - The company is focusing on five strategic tracks driven by digital transformation, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage and improve financial performance [19][20]. - The bank's asset quality is improving, with a significant reduction in non-performing loans, which enhances its risk resilience [21]. - The bank's financial metrics indicate a stable growth trajectory, with projected net profit growth from 2025 to 2027 [14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The top ten shareholders of the company hold a combined 53.1% stake, with a new management team expected to be fully established by 2024 [1]. - The bank's business development is centered around five strategic tracks, leveraging digital transformation to create a differentiated competitive edge [1][19]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, the bank achieved a revenue growth of 1.31% and a net profit growth of 1.02% compared to the previous year [19]. - The bank's total loans reached 5.58 trillion yuan in Q1 2025, with a significant focus on corporate loans, which accounted for 58.97% of the total [20]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.33% in Q1 2025, down from 1.36% at the end of 2024, indicating a positive trend in asset quality [21]. - The bank's provisioning coverage ratio reached 186.99%, reflecting a robust risk management strategy [21]. Strategic Focus - The bank is leveraging its location in Shanghai and the Yangtze River Delta to enhance its business operations, with the region contributing significantly to its profits [20]. - The bank's digital transformation strategy is expected to drive innovation and customer expansion, supporting its long-term growth [19].

Group 1 - The report highlights that since the 1990s, China has experienced seven notable rounds of price increases, with the current phase expected to follow a supply-side logic leading to a lag in stock market performance compared to PPI [1][16][19] - It emphasizes that demand determines potential returns while supply influences certainty, indicating that the current supply-side "anti-involution" is clear, and further guidance from the demand side is awaited [1][17][19] - The report suggests that if demand-side policies are implemented, sectors with relatively high certainty and elasticity, such as cement, glass, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery, are likely to benefit [1][19] Group 2 - The monthly market review indicates that despite various external factors, market sentiment has improved, with major indices reaching new highs, particularly in the steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials sectors [2][23] - The report notes that the core contradiction in the market remains internal, with expectations for profit improvement driving the market, while external factors are expected to have a muted impact [3][23] - It recommends focusing on sectors with strong growth signals and those in an upward trend, such as military, pharmaceuticals, communication equipment, and insurance, while also considering potential rebound opportunities in semiconductor and robotics sectors [4][19] Group 3 - The report provides insights into the current capacity utilization rates across various industries, indicating that sectors like non-metallic mineral products, pharmaceuticals, and electrical machinery are under significant pressure due to overcapacity [20][22] - It highlights that the capacity utilization rates for key industrial products are at historically low levels, suggesting potential for recovery if demand-side policies are enacted [20][22] - The report also tracks the performance of different sectors, noting that steel, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials have led the market, while banking and public utilities have seen declines [2][23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the companies involved in the tungsten industry, specifically recommending Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The tungsten price is expected to continue rising due to tight supply and demand dynamics, with significant price increases observed in various tungsten products as of early August [1][2]. - The report identifies three main reasons for the strong performance of tungsten prices: the manufacturing sector is at a cyclical bottom, low inventory levels prompting restocking, and a recovery in export demand since June [2][3]. - The long-term outlook for tungsten prices remains positive due to persistent supply constraints and the scarcity of resources, which is likely to elevate the price center [4]. Summary by Sections Market Prices - As of August 5, 2023, black tungsten concentrate prices reached 194,500 CNY/ton, up 12% from early July; APT prices were 285,000 CNY/ton, up 13%; and tungsten carbide powder prices were 422,500 CNY/ton, up 14% [1]. Long-term Quotes - Major companies have set long-term quotes close to market prices, indicating ongoing raw material shortages. For instance, Xiamen Tungsten's APT quote was 279,500 CNY/ton, while Zhangyuan Tungsten's black tungsten concentrate was quoted at 192,500 CNY/ton [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic tungsten price remains strong despite the normal output from the Bakuta tungsten mine in Kazakhstan, which has a capacity of nearly 10,000 tons of tungsten concentrate per year. The market has absorbed this supply increase without significant price drops [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that short-term price elasticity will be driven by restocking and export recovery, while long-term supply issues will support higher tungsten prices. Recommended stocks include Zhongtung High-tech and Anyuan Coal Industry, with related stocks being Xiamen Tungsten, Zhangyuan Tungsten, and Xianglu Tungsten [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of $13.4 to $14.8 million in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 538.1% to 604.8% [1] - The growth in net profit is primarily driven by a low base in H1 2024, continued growth in overseas markets, and lower investment and operating expenses [2] - The company has made a strategic investment in the orthodontic brand Shuyaki, acquiring a 35% stake to deepen its presence in emerging markets and enhance the penetration of invisible orthodontics [3] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from $208 million in 2023 to $318 million in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.3% in 2023, 29.0% in 2024, and 18.1% in 2025 [5] - The net profit is expected to increase from $8 million in 2023 to $13 million in 2025, with growth rates of -75.4% in 2023, 60.4% in 2024, and 4.4% in 2025 [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be $0.07 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 98.3 [5] Market Expansion - The company has established a localized development strategy, with significant growth in international cases, increasing from 33,000 in 2023 to 140,700 in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 326.4% [2] - The company is expanding its production capabilities in Brazil and is set to build a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin, USA, which will be one of the most advanced centers for invisible orthodontics globally [2] Marketing Strategies - The company is actively enhancing its brand influence through diverse marketing strategies tailored to different city tiers, including collaborations with popular brands like My Little Pony and initiatives like the Angel KiD Star Plan [4]

Group 1: Industrial Products - The report indicates a decline in industrial product prices, with the fundamental high-frequency index at 126.9 points, a slight increase from the previous value of 126.8 points, and a year-on-year increase of 5.3 points [3] Group 2: Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - As of the end of Q2 2025, the heavy allocation of agricultural stocks was 1.36%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous quarter, but still below the industry average allocation by 0.14 percentage points [4] - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.43 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, with a net profit of 203 million yuan, up 42.6% [5] - Domestic revenue for Zhongchong Co., Ltd. reached 860 million yuan in H1 2025, a 39% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in pet food and supplies [6] Group 3: Education - New Oriental's Q4 FY2025 results exceeded guidance, with a stable educational business foundation, although Q1 FY2026 guidance is conservative [10] - The forecast for Non-GAAP net profit for FY2026-2028 is 550 million, 608 million, and 647 million USD, reflecting growth rates of 6.2%, 10.8%, and 6.4% respectively [10] Group 4: Electric Equipment - CATL reported H1 2025 revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit of 30.5 billion yuan, up 33.3% [11] - The forecast for net profit for CATL from 2025 to 2027 is 66.42 billion, 80.15 billion, and 94.87 billion yuan, with growth rates of 30.9%, 20.7%, and 18.4% respectively [11] Group 5: Building Materials - Zaiseng Technology plans to acquire a 49% stake in Sichuan Maikelong, with a transaction value of 231 million yuan, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the vacuum insulation panel (VIP) sector [12][13] - The acquisition is expected to streamline operations and improve efficiency, with Maikelong committing to annual revenues of at least 465 million, 560 million, and 648 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12][14] - The new national standards for refrigerators are anticipated to significantly boost the VIP market, with potential demand reaching up to 7,543 million square meters under optimal conditions [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The acquisition of a 49% stake in Sichuan Maikelong is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the vacuum insulation panel (VIP) sector, creating a complete industrial chain from material production to market sales [1][3] - The new national standards for refrigerators are anticipated to significantly increase the demand for VIPs, with potential demand elasticity reaching up to 7,543 thousand square meters as penetration rates rise [2] - The acquisition is projected to optimize Maikelong's operational efficiency and expand its cost and scale advantages, contributing positively to the company's performance [2][3] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company plans to acquire 49% of Maikelong for 231 million RMB, with performance guarantees for the next three years, including revenue targets of 4.65 billion RMB, 5.6 billion RMB, and 6.48 billion RMB for 2025-2027 [1] - If Maikelong meets at least 90% of the cumulative revenue and net profit targets, it will not be liable for performance compensation [1] Market Potential - The new national standards for refrigerators are expected to drive rapid growth in the VIP market, with significant increases in demand as the penetration of new energy-efficient refrigerators rises [2] - Maikelong is currently the second-largest VIP manufacturer in China, with a market share of 15.5%, and is expected to benefit from the acquisition through enhanced management and resource allocation [2] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1 billion RMB, 1.4 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 50, 35, and 29 [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from 1.68 billion RMB in 2025 to 2.39 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction 1. Model Name: Odds + Win Rate Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy combines the risk budget of the odds-based strategy and the win-rate-based strategy to create a comprehensive scoring system for asset allocation[3][48][54] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. The odds-based strategy allocates more to high-odds assets and less to low-odds assets under a target volatility constraint[48] 2. The win-rate-based strategy derives macro win-rate scores from five factors: monetary, credit, growth, inflation, and overseas, and allocates accordingly[51] 3. The combined strategy sums the risk budgets of the two strategies to form a unified allocation model[54] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates stable performance with low drawdowns and consistent returns over different time periods[54] 2. Model Name: Industry Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy evaluates industries based on three dimensions: momentum/trend, turnover/volatility/beta (crowding), and IR (information ratio) over the past 12 months[43] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Momentum and trend are measured using the IR of industries over the past 12 months[43] 2. Crowding is assessed using turnover ratio, volatility ratio, and beta ratio[43] 3. The strategy ranks industries based on these metrics and allocates to those with strong trends, low crowding, and high IR[43] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has shown strong excess returns and low tracking errors, making it a robust framework for industry allocation[43] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Odds + Win Rate Strategy - **Annualized Return**: - 2011 onwards: 7.0% - 2014 onwards: 7.6% - 2019 onwards: 7.2%[54] - **Maximum Drawdown**: - 2011 onwards: 2.8% - 2014 onwards: 2.7% - 2019 onwards: 2.8%[54] - **Sharpe Ratio**: - 2011 onwards: 2.86 - 2014 onwards: 3.26 - 2019 onwards: 2.85[56] 2. Industry Rotation Strategy - **Excess Return**: - 2011 onwards: 13.1% - 2014 onwards: 13.0% - 2019 onwards: 10.8%[44] - **Tracking Error**: - 2011 onwards: 11.0% - 2014 onwards: 12.0% - 2019 onwards: 10.7%[44] - **IR**: - 2011 onwards: 1.18 - 2014 onwards: 1.08 - 2019 onwards: 1.02[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction 1. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures stocks with strong trends, low crowding, and moderate odds[27] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Trend is measured at zero standard deviation[27] 2. Odds are at 0.3 standard deviation[27] 3. Crowding is at -1.3 standard deviation[27] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor ranks highest among all style factors, making it a key focus for allocation[27] 2. Factor Name: Quality Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on high odds, weak trends, and low crowding, with potential for future trend confirmation[29] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Odds are at 1.7 standard deviation[29] 2. Trend is at -1.4 standard deviation[29] 3. Crowding is at -0.8 standard deviation[29] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor shows left-side buy signals but requires trend confirmation for stronger allocation[29] 3. Factor Name: Growth Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Represents high odds, moderate trends, and moderate crowding, suitable for standard allocation[32] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Odds are at 0.9 standard deviation[32] 2. Trend is at -0.2 standard deviation[32] 3. Crowding is at 0.1 standard deviation[32] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is recommended for standard allocation due to its balanced characteristics[32] 4. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Characterized by low odds, strong trends, and high crowding, with high uncertainty[35] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Odds are at -0.7 standard deviation[35] 2. Trend is at 1.6 standard deviation[35] 3. Crowding is at 0.6 standard deviation[35] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is not recommended due to its high uncertainty and crowding[35] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Value Factor - **Odds**: 0.3 standard deviation - **Trend**: 0 standard deviation - **Crowding**: -1.3 standard deviation[27] 2. Quality Factor - **Odds**: 1.7 standard deviation - **Trend**: -1.4 standard deviation - **Crowding**: -0.8 standard deviation[29] 3. Growth Factor - **Odds**: 0.9 standard deviation - **Trend**: -0.2 standard deviation - **Crowding**: 0.1 standard deviation[32] 4. Small-Cap Factor - **Odds**: -0.7 standard deviation - **Trend**: 1.6 standard deviation - **Crowding**: 0.6 standard deviation[35]