Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that all three major indices have experienced five consecutive months of gains, with the ChiNext 50 index rising by 59.45% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 12.73% in Q3 2025 [1][9][10] - In terms of industry performance, only a few sectors reported negative returns, with the telecommunications sector up by 50.20% and the electronics sector up by 44.49% [1][11] - The report highlights that the timing models for Q3 2025 generally achieved absolute positive returns, although it was challenging to outperform the benchmark itself [1][5] Group 2 - The report suggests a positive outlook for Q4 2025, particularly favoring sectors such as electric equipment and new energy, telecommunications, and comprehensive sectors [2] - The report emphasizes the development of various effective strategies based on historical timing, industry rotation, and stock selection models [5][6] - The report outlines the performance of different types of funds, noting that equity mixed funds had the best average return of 25.83% during a period of rising market indices [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Today, convertible bonds followed the decline of underlying stocks, and the valuation compressed on a month - on - month basis [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, while the overall market capitalization decreased [1]. - The large - cap value style was relatively dominant [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - Index performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.45% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.70%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.55%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 1.51%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 1.49% [1]. - Market style: Large - cap growth decreased by 3.45%, large - cap value increased by 0.50%, mid - cap growth decreased by 2.74%, mid - cap value increased by 0.15%, small - cap growth decreased by 2.24%, and small - cap value increased by 0.13% [1]. - Fund performance: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 70.395 billion yuan, a 7.69% month - on - month increase; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 2.534146 trillion yuan, a 5.15% month - on - month decrease; the net outflow of main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 92.96 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond decreased by 0.06bp to 1.85% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.54 yuan, a 0.45% decrease from yesterday. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 183.44 yuan, a 1.22% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 118.86 yuan, a 0.06% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 128.15 yuan, with no change [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 57.97%, a 1.36 - percentage - point decrease from yesterday. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 yuan range increased by 2.44 percentage points to 29.47%. There were no bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 132.31 yuan, a 0.37% decrease from yesterday [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - Valuation compressed. The fitted conversion premium rate of 100 - yuan par value was 30.39%, a 0.17 - percentage - point decrease from yesterday; the overall weighted par value was 101.40 yuan, a 0.76% decrease from yesterday. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 10.70%, a 0.02 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 86.97%, a 4.02 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 25.33%, a 0.52 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, 18 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were building materials (+1.92%), coal (+1.37%), and textile and apparel (+1.30%); the top three industries in terms of decline were electronics (-4.71%), power equipment (-4.46%), and computer (-3.70%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 14 industries rose. The top three industries in terms of increase were beauty care (+2.25%), steel (+1.06%), and banking (+0.69%); the top three industries in terms of decline were environmental protection (-5.77%), communication (-3.12%), and electronics (-2.81%) [3]. - Closing price: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.88%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.67%, the technology sector decreased by 2.27%, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.10%, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.42% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.79 percentage points, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.8 percentage points, the technology sector increased by 0.58 percentage points, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.34 percentage points, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.15 percentage points [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.50%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.97%, the technology sector decreased by 2.61%, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.28%, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.71% [3]. - Pure bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 1.3 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.93 percentage points, the technology sector decreased by 3.6 percentage points, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.19 percentage points, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.49 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Building materials, coal, and textile and apparel led the rise. For example, building materials had a daily increase of 1.92% in the underlying stock market and 0.64% in the convertible bond market; coal had a daily increase of 1.37% in the underlying stock market and 0.37% in the convertible bond market; textile and apparel had a daily increase of 1.30% in the underlying stock market and - 0.10% in the convertible bond market [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic operation in September was stable, but due to the rising year - on - year base, it was difficult to have an unexpectedly high reading. The GDP growth rate in the third quarter was expected to be around 4.7% [2][53]. - For the bond market, the "broad credit" policy was intensified in the fourth quarter, and it was expected that the annual economic growth target could be achieved. Short - term attention should be paid to the effects of new policy - based financial instruments, and October was an important window period. The bond market should look for structural opportunities in October, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield above 1.8% gradually had allocation value, with 1.9% as the upper - limit protection for the year [2][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - **CPI**: Affected by high - temperature rainfall and the holiday effect, food prices rose, while non - food items were affected by falling oil prices and might be weaker than the seasonal level. It was expected that the CPI in September would have a month - on - month increase of about 0.3% and a year - on - year increase to around - 0.1%. Specifically, the food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year decrease to around - 4.2%, and the non - food item was expected to have a month - on - month increase of around 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of around 0.8% [7][12]. - **PPI**: Due to the weak terminal demand for domestic bulk commodities, the "Golden September" performance was rather dull. It was expected that the PPI in September would have a month - on - month decrease of around - 0.1%, and the sharp rise in the carry - over effect would push the year - on - year increase to around - 2.4% [16]. 3.2 Foreign Trade - **Export**: It was expected that the export growth rate in September would remain stable at around 4.5%. In terms of price, the decline of the CCFI index year - on - year in September narrowed significantly compared with August, indicating that the price drag might improve. In terms of quantity, the year - on - year growth rates of port container throughput and cargo throughput in September were basically the same as those in August. Also, the growth rate of the feed - processing trade, which led exports by about one month, remained stable in August, so the export reading in September was likely to remain stable compared with August [21]. - **Import**: It was expected that the import growth rate in September would be around 0.8%. The year - on - year increase of the CRB spot index in September narrowed, and the year - on - year decline of the CDFI index monthly average also widened slightly, indicating that the supporting effect of price on imports might continue to weaken [21]. 3.3 Industry The industrial growth rate in September was expected to drop to around 4.9%. Although the production sub - index of the PMI in September increased seasonally, the month - on - month increase was lower than the seasonal level. Considering the short - term impact of "anti - involution" and important events on the production rhythm and the fact that high - frequency data of downstream investment demand did not show super - seasonal performance, the year - on - year industrial added value was expected to decline slightly [23]. 3.4 Investment - **Manufacturing Investment**: The cumulative growth rate of manufacturing investment from January to September was expected to be around 4.3%. The boosting effect of the "Two - New" policies on manufacturing investment had been weakening since the third quarter, and the growth rate of equipment purchases had been falling from July to August. Some enterprises might delay their expansion plans under the promotion of "anti - involution", and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade frictions continued to postpone, which might lead to a temporary slowdown in manufacturing investment [28]. - **Infrastructure Investment (excluding electricity)**: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) from January to September was expected to be around 1.1%. According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the PMI of civil engineering construction, which represented infrastructure investment, was below 50% in September, indicating that the short - term growth of investment - related construction activities was still weak. It was expected that the single - month year - on - year growth of infrastructure investment would remain negative, and the cumulative growth rate would continue to decline to around 1.1% [28]. - **Real Estate Investment**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment from January to September was expected to be around - 13.4%. In terms of sales, high - frequency data showed that the year - on - year growth rate of the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities turned positive, and the growth rate of the sales area bottomed out due to the low - base effect. In terms of investment, the construction PMI showed that the activity index of housing construction was below 50%, indicating that the real estate investment growth rate might continue to decline to - 13.4% [32]. - **Overall Fixed - Asset Investment**: It was comprehensively judged that the fixed - asset investment growth rate in September would be around 0.2% [35]. 3.5 Social Retail The year - on - year growth rate of social retail was expected to drop to around 4.3%. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the base in September last year increased slightly, and the slowdown of subsidy issuance in some regions led to a slowdown in automobile sales. Considering the high base of durable - goods retail caused by the "trade - in" policy in the same period last year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail in September was expected to continue to decline [37]. 3.6 Financial Data - **Credit**: It was expected that the new credit in September would be about 150 billion yuan, slightly lower than the level of the same period last year. The new social financing was about 3.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 66 billion yuan. The residents' credit in September was expected to be around 25 billion yuan, a slight increase compared with the same period last year [45]. - **Components of Social Financing**: In the off - balance - sheet items, trust loans in September might increase slightly by 2 billion yuan, entrusted loans might decrease slightly by about 1.5 billion yuan, undiscounted bills might increase by 10.72 billion yuan, the loan write - off scale might be 17.52 billion yuan, and the net financing scale of credit ABS was around 1.43 billion yuan. In direct financing, the new financing amount of corporate bonds was 8.47 billion yuan, and stock financing might be 4.16 billion yuan. The net financing scale of government bonds in the month might be close to 1.2 trillion yuan, and its year - on - year support for social financing might weaken [45]. - **M2 Growth Rate**: Affected by the high base of last year, it was expected that the year - on - year growth rate of M2 would decline to around 8.4% [48].

Group 1: Market Performance - Global equities outperformed other asset classes with a return of 3.31% in September, followed by global bonds at 0.65% and commodities at 0.05%[1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached historical highs despite the U.S. government shutdown, driven by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - The Bloomberg U.S. high-yield corporate bond credit spread narrowed to 2.67%, indicating strong investor confidence in corporate credit quality[4] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers increased their allocations to equities, particularly in sectors like technology and healthcare, while reducing exposure to utilities and emerging markets[4] - The Indian stock market lagged behind the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence in outlook between domestic and foreign investors[5] - Speculative net positions in the Japanese yen decreased to 79,500 contracts, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards a weaker yen[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ratio of exchange rate volatility between emerging markets and G7 countries fell to 0.76, the lowest level since 2013, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades[7] - The Federal Reserve's reserve balances dropped below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to increased Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening[8] - The correlation between the S&P 500 and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) reached -0.88, indicating that stock market gains are supported by low interest rate volatility[9] Group 4: Regional Developments - Hong Kong's overnight interbank lending rate surged to 5.35%, the highest in nearly a year, due to liquidity tightening measures by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority[10] - Gold prices continued to rise, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [32]. Core Insights - The alpha of real estate stocks depends on the precision of land acquisition, with the current macroeconomic environment not supporting a general rise in housing prices, making it challenging for companies to ensure project profitability [6][7]. - The value of real estate stocks is derived from the discounted future residual earnings, which are based on the profitability of each project, ultimately reflecting on ROE and valuation [6][7]. - The report highlights that the market for new homes is contracting, and the effective market area for new homes is shrinking, complicating the identification of valuable land parcels [7][24]. - The report suggests that future sector opportunities will primarily arise from improved land acquisition comfort for real estate companies, transitioning from a contracting to an expanding market [24]. Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,233.623 billion and a circulating market value of 1,183.334 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 7.6%, 16.6%, and 3.4% respectively, while the relative performance is 4.4%, -1.9%, and -12.1% [3]. Project Profitability and Market Dynamics - The profitability of real estate companies is increasingly dependent on project-level earnings, with past profits driven by rising property prices and a focus on debt leverage [6][7]. - The report notes that the supply of quality land has increased, leading to heightened competition among projects, and some older projects may face challenges in sales due to new building regulations [7][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have demonstrated precise land acquisition over the past three years, such as Greentown China, China Resources Land, and Jianfa International Group, while also monitoring companies like China Overseas Grand Oceans and China Jinmao for improvements in land acquisition in the latter half of 2024 [24].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Scenarios - The impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on emerging market stocks can be categorized into four scenarios: global monetary policy switching period, stable rate increase/decrease period, global economic recession, and liquidity excess period[1] - In the global monetary policy switching period, market expectations regarding the Fed's hawkish/dovish stance are key, while emerging market economic strength has less impact[1] - During stable rate increase/decrease periods, the sensitivity to monetary policy decreases, and the economic expectations of emerging markets compared to the U.S. become crucial[1] Group 2: Historical Performance Analysis - Historical analysis from 2008 to 2025 shows that emerging market stocks have varied performance under different monetary policy conditions[2] - For instance, from January 2008 to February 2009, emerging markets fell by 59.9% during the financial crisis, while from February 2009 to April 2010, they rebounded by 92.6% in a liquidity excess period[2] - In the stable rate increase period from February 2016 to January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 69.0% as global manufacturing PMI improved[2] Group 3: Future Outlook Post-Rate Cut - Following the September rate cut, the macro environment is likely entering a monetary policy switching phase, which may exert downward pressure on emerging market stocks[1] - If the Fed's monetary policy expectations do not shift to rate hikes, emerging markets may still perform well despite potential rate cut reversals[1] - The report suggests that the most favorable time for emerging markets may have passed, similar to the period from September to December 2024[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company with a target price of 10.11 yuan [2][9]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a phase of performance pressure, with a 7.05% year-on-year decline in revenue and a 15.16% drop in net profit for the first half of 2025. The revenue for 25H1 was 1.79 billion yuan, and the net profit was 108 million yuan [2][9]. - The company is undergoing strategic adjustments, particularly in its product lines, with expectations for performance recovery as new products are launched and adjustments take effect [9]. Financial Performance Summary - **2025 Half-Year Performance**: Revenue was 1.79 billion yuan (-7.05% YoY), and net profit was 108 million yuan (-15.16% YoY). The gross margin was 52.3% (+0.5pp YoY), and the net margin was 7.5% (-0.6pp YoY) [2]. - **2025 Q2 Performance**: Revenue was 913 million yuan (-11.7% YoY), and net profit was 57 million yuan (-16.1% YoY). The gross margin was 53.4% (+0.6pp YoY), and the net margin was 7.8% (-0.2pp YoY) [2]. - **Future Financial Projections**: Expected revenues for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 3.983 billion, 3.798 billion, 4.189 billion, and 4.598 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 244 million, 248 million, 294 million, and 350 million yuan [5][10]. Business Segment Performance - **Cosmetics Segment**: Revenue was 1.094 billion yuan (-7.73% YoY). The "Yilian" brand showed strong growth with a 23.78% increase in revenue to 554 million yuan, driven by successful marketing and product upgrades [9]. - **Raw Materials Segment**: Revenue was 179 million yuan (+4.15% YoY), with a notable increase in high-value products, particularly in hyaluronic acid (HA) sales, which grew by 287.3% YoY [9]. R&D and Innovation - The company continues to invest in R&D, with expenses increasing by 20.60% YoY to 79 million yuan in the first half of 2025. New product launches, including the "transdermal collagen" technology, are expected to drive future growth [9].

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 【点评报告】 金融工程 10 月主动选股 组合回顾 9 月选股组合个股平均涨跌幅为 5.24%，胜率为 57.9%。组合的月度收益为 4.97%，相对万得全 A 跑赢 2.17%，本年度至今绝对回报 50.35%，相对万得全 A 跑赢 23.93%。 本月回顾 从通胀数据来看，PPI 同比降幅明显收窄，CPI 同比回落幅度较大。从金融数 据来看，M1 同比增长 6%，较上月抬升 0.4%。9 月制造业 PMI 指数为 49.8%， 好于前值 49.4%。汇率方面，近期人民币对美元升值。基于上述的宏观数据， 我们判断，小市值因子表现或走弱，10 月份中盘股和大盘股表现或好于小盘 股。 本月电新、有色和电子表现较好，国防军工、银行和综合金融表现较差。以中 证 500 代表的中盘股表现好于以中证 1000 和中证 2000 为代表的小盘股。从 风险因子的角度来看，beta 因子、市值因子、成长因子和波动率因子表现较为 突出，表明市场对高弹性，偏成长类的龙头股较为青睐。 10 月观点 10 月市值风格层面看好中盘，成长价值层面看好成长风格。 M1 的抬升表明流动性依然处于上行，PPI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for BYD with a target price of 130.6 CNY and 142.7 HKD [1] Core Views - The report highlights a moderate month-on-month sales growth in September 2025, with expectations for an upward trend in Q4 [1] - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 925.5 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.1% [2] - The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive position and potential for global market share expansion, driven by product innovation and overseas market development [6] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for BYD are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 925.5 billion CNY - 2026: 1,082.2 billion CNY - 2027: 1,237.6 billion CNY - Year-on-year revenue growth rates are expected to be 29.0% for 2024, 19.1% for 2025, 16.9% for 2026, and 14.4% for 2027 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 42.6 billion CNY - 2026: 51.4 billion CNY - 2027: 63.2 billion CNY - The net profit growth rates are projected at 34.0% for 2024, 5.8% for 2025, 20.7% for 2026, and 23.0% for 2027 [2] Sales Performance - In September 2025, BYD's total new energy vehicle sales reached 396,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 6% but a month-on-month increase of 6% [6] - The breakdown of sales includes: - BEV (Battery Electric Vehicles): 205,000 units, year-on-year increase of 24% - PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles): 188,000 units, year-on-year decrease of 26% - Exports: 71,000 units, year-on-year increase of 134% [6] Market Dynamics - The report notes that multiple regions have suspended vehicle replacement subsidies, which may lead to a significant rush for purchases before the end of the year [6] - The automotive industry is transitioning from rapid growth to high-quality development, which is expected to enhance profitability for companies like BYD [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [4][17]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated impressive performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue increasing by 31.3% year-on-year to 2.59 billion and net profit rising by 36.1% to 670 million, aligning with market expectations [1][9]. - The company is expanding its product categories, particularly in the fragrance segment, and has successfully launched high-end perfume series, enhancing its brand positioning [9]. - The dual-channel strategy (online and offline) is showing robust growth, with online sales increasing by 39% and offline sales by 27%, indicating a healthy synergy between the two channels [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 3.885 billion, 2025E at 5.142 billion, 2026E at 6.588 billion, and 2027E at 8.273 billion, with respective growth rates of 34.6%, 32.4%, 28.1%, and 25.6% [3][11]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 881 million in 2024A to 1.936 billion in 2027E, with growth rates of 33.0%, 35.3%, 28.2%, and 26.8% [3][11]. - The company maintains a strong gross margin of 84.2% and a net margin of 25.9% in the first half of 2025, reflecting stable profitability [9]. Business Segmentation - Revenue breakdown shows 55% from color cosmetics, 42% from skincare, 3% from makeup artistry training, and 0.4% from fragrances [9]. - The offline sales contribute 47% of total revenue, while online sales account for 50%, showcasing a balanced distribution between channels [9]. Future Growth Potential - The company has significant room for SKU expansion, currently at approximately 400 SKUs, particularly in lip, eye, and foundation products [9]. - The report highlights the potential for improved store efficiency compared to international brands, suggesting ongoing growth opportunities [9].