Economic Indicators - The Huachuang WEI index rose to 7.14% as of August 17, 2025, up from 6.52% the previous week, marking an increase of 0.62 percentage points[1] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 8% year-on-year as of August 17, 2025, compared to a previous decline of 4%[1] - The land premium rate rebounded to 10.3% as of August 17, 2025, with a two-week average of 6%[1] Trade and Consumption - Container throughput at Chinese ports maintained a high level, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 5% as of August 17, 2025[1] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 22.7% year-on-year as of August 23, 2025, compared to an average decline of 5.8% in July[2] - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August 2025[1] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose to $3,373.6 per ounce, an increase of 1.1%, while U.S. oil prices reached $63.7 per barrel, up 1.4%[2] - Lithium carbonate futures fell by 8.9%, marking the largest decline among "anti-involution" commodities[2] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance reached 3.26 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 74.2% as of August 25, 2025[3] - The yield on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds was reported at 1.3665%, 1.5948%, and 1.7465%, respectively, with increases of 1.59bps, 4.94bps, and 5.74bps compared to August 8, 2025[3]

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that global oil and gas capital expenditures are on a downward trend, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Since the signing of the Paris Agreement in 2015, capital expenditures in the oil and gas upstream sector have significantly decreased, with a notable drop of nearly 22% from the 2014 peak [9][29]. - The report indicates that major energy companies are facing increasing pressure from policies aimed at carbon reduction, prompting them to shift focus towards energy transition and renewable projects. This trend is expected to continue, resulting in a sustained reduction in capital expenditures for oil and gas [9][29]. - The report notes that the active drilling rig count in the U.S. remains low, which may lead to a slowdown in U.S. oil production growth. The OPEC+ group is also expected to maintain limited supply increases in the coming year [9][29]. Oil Market - The Brent crude oil price is reported at $67.93 per barrel, reflecting a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week, while WTI crude oil is at $63.13 per barrel, down 0.28% [31][30]. - The report mentions that geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with expectations of resilient demand amid limited supply growth [10][29]. Coal Market - The report states that the average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 703 RMB per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.59%. The market is characterized by stable prices, with downstream demand primarily driven by essential purchases [11][12]. - Inventory levels at major ports are reported to be 23.336 million tons, down 1.27% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [11][12]. - The report highlights that domestic coal production is being affected by weather conditions, but overall supply remains sufficient to meet demand from power plants and the chemical industry [11][12]. Coking Coal Market - The report indicates that the coking coal market is currently in a stalemate, with prices for coking coal remaining stable at 1,610 RMB per ton. The market is influenced by fluctuating raw material prices and the profitability of downstream steel enterprises [14][15]. - The report notes that the average daily pig iron production from 247 steel mills is 2.4082 million tons, reflecting a slight increase of 0.04% week-on-week, which supports the demand for coking coal [14][15]. Natural Gas Market - The report highlights a breakthrough in natural gas helium extraction technology in China, with a new device achieving a helium purity level of 6N9. This development is expected to enhance the domestic helium supply [16][17]. - Natural gas prices in the U.S. have decreased, with the NYMEX natural gas average at $2.81 per million British thermal units, down 2.2% week-on-week [16][17]. Oilfield Services - The report emphasizes that the oilfield services sector is expected to maintain its growth due to government policies aimed at increasing oil and gas reserves. The capital expenditure for major oil companies is projected to remain high, supporting the oilfield services industry's outlook [18][19]. - The global active rig count is reported at 1,621, with a slight increase of 21 rigs week-on-week, indicating ongoing activity in the oilfield services sector [18][19].

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创交运|红利资产月报（2025 年 8 月） 8 月延续相对跑输，持续看好红利长期配置 推荐（维持） 价值 ❑ 风险提示：经济出现下滑、改革不及预期、并购整合等资本运作不及预期。 行业研究 交通运输 2025 年 08 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 证券分析师：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525080004 联系人：刘邢雨 邮箱：liuxingyu@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 122 | 0.02 | | 总市值(亿元) | 33,240.61 | 3.34 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 28,359.48 | 3.58 | 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析 ...

金融工程 证 券 研 究 报 告 市场形态周报（20250818-20250822） 本周指数普遍上涨 ❖ 本周市场回顾与最新信号 从本周的指数表现来看，本周指数普遍上涨，其中沪深 300 上涨 4.18%，中证 500 上涨 3.87%，中证 1000 上涨 3.45%。 当前，上证 50 的隐含波动率为 20.3%，相对于上周上涨了 2.93%。上证 500 的 隐含波动率为 22.36%，相对于上周上涨了 2.82%。中证 1000 的隐含波动率为 25.91%，相对于上周上涨了 4.86%。沪深 300 的隐含波动率为 19.21%，相对 于上周上涨了 1.12%。 我们统计了最近信号的次数和胜率。2025 年 8 月 11 日到 2025 年 8 月 15 日正 面信号共出现了 3365 次，未来高点平均胜率为 70.33%，负面信号出现 3167 次，未来低点平均胜率为 27.82%。 从宽基择时策略来看，沪深 300、上证综指、万得微盘股指数、中证 2000、中 证 1000、国证 2000、中证 800、Wind 全 A、中证 500、上证 50、创业板指、 恒生可持续发展企业指数、恒生指数、 ...

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 存单周报（0818-0824）：供需偏不利，定价 修复或有难度 债券周报 2025 年 08 月 24 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：周冠南 邮箱：zhouguannan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360517090002 证券分析师：宋琦 邮箱：songqi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080002 相关研究报告 《【华创固收】政策双周报（0530-0612）：买断 式逆回购前置操作，中美经贸磋商原则上达成框 架 》 2025-06-12 《【华创固收】评级披露仍较缓慢，关注权益轮 动向转债传导——可转债周报 20250609》 2025-06-09 《【华创固收】央行开始买债了吗？——债券周 报 20250608》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】存单周报（0602-0608）：资金预 期有所缓和，关注存单配置价值》 2025-06-08 《【华创固收】关注震荡市场利差被动走阔的加 仓机会——信用周报 20250607》 2025-06-07 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 供给方面 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][25]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational quality and successful expansion of customized storage clients. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 575 million yuan, up 11.31% year-on-year [2][10]. - The demand for NOR Flash in the consumer sector has significantly increased, and the company is making steady progress in expanding its customized storage business in various fields such as AI mobile phones, AI PCs, and automotive applications [10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported: - Revenue: 4.15 billion yuan (YoY +15%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 575 million yuan (YoY +11.31%) - Non-recurring net profit: 544 million yuan (YoY +14.99%) [2][10]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved: - Revenue: 2.24 billion yuan (YoY +13.09%, QoQ +17.4%) - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 341 million yuan (YoY +9.17%, QoQ +45.27%) [2][10]. Future Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve the following financial metrics: - Total revenue (million yuan): 7,356 in 2024, 9,755 in 2025, 12,158 in 2026, and 15,250 in 2027 - Net profit attributable to shareholders (million yuan): 1,103 in 2024, 1,559 in 2025, 2,153 in 2026, and 2,636 in 2027 - Earnings per share (yuan): 1.66 in 2024, 2.35 in 2025, 3.24 in 2026, and 3.97 in 2027 [4][10]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on increasing its market share and has successfully captured opportunities in various sectors, including automotive, consumer electronics, and computing. The strategy emphasizes customized storage solutions and leveraging the growing demand in AI-related applications [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's profitability improvement logic continues to be validated, with multiple business segments showing growth potential. The company is expected to experience rapid revenue growth in the near future [1][7]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 37.549 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 7.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.417 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.65% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 21.245 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 0.83% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 30.3%, with a net profit of 949 million yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 12.12% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 102.2% [1]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 104.317 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.3%. By 2027, the revenue is expected to reach 121 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 9.1% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.535 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant year-over-year growth of 32.6%. By 2027, this figure is expected to rise to 5.283 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 23.8% [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.76 yuan in 2024 to 1.51 yuan by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [3]. Business Segment Analysis - The smart acoustic assembly business experienced a revenue decline of 34.92% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to product iteration cycles. However, the upcoming release of AirPods Pro 3 is expected to boost sales in the second half of the year [7]. - The precision components business reported a revenue of 7.604 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 20.54%, with a gross margin of 23.49% [7]. - The smart hardware segment achieved a revenue of 20.341 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 2.49%, driven by the successful progress of high-margin AI glasses products [7]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer in the XR industry, with expectations to benefit from industry growth and increased demand for AI-enabled products [7]. - The global AI smart glasses market is projected to see significant growth, with sales expected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, a year-over-year increase of 533% [7]. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through its comprehensive product offerings and technological advancements [7].

证 券 研 究 报 告 浙数文化（600633）2025 年半年报点评 推荐（维持） 游戏主业稳健，AI 布局多点开花，看好 IP 谷 子潮玩探索及数据要素业务进展 事项： 公司发布 2025 年半年报。2025 年上半年公司营业收入实现 14.14 亿元， YOY+0.09%；归母净利润实现 3.77 亿元，YOY+156.26%；扣非归母净利润实 现 2.03 亿元，YOY+0.14%；经营活动现金流净额实现 2.51 亿元，去年为-0.96 亿元，同比实现扭亏。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,097 | 3,329 | 3,835 | 4,286 | | 同比增速(%) | 0.6% | 7.5% | 15.2% | 11.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 512 | 683 | 734 | 854 | | 同比增速(%) | -22.8% | 33.6% | 7.4% | 16.4% | | 每 ...

金融工程 金工周报 2025 年 08 月 24 日 【金工周报】（20250818-20250822） 大部分指数依旧看多，后市或乐观向上 本周回顾 本周市场普遍上涨，上证指数单周上涨 3.49%，创业板指单周上涨 5.85%。 A 股模型： 短期：成交量模型大部分宽基看多。低波动率模型中性。特征龙虎榜机构模型 看空。特征成交量模型看多。智能算法沪深 300 模型看多，智能算法中证 500 模型看多。 证 券 研 究 报 告 中期：涨跌停模型看多。月历效应模型中性。 长期：长期动量模型看多。 综合：A 股综合兵器 V3 模型看多。A 股综合国证 2000 模型看多。 港股模型： 中期：成交额倒波幅模型看多。 本周行业指数普遍上涨，涨幅前五的行业为：通信、电子、计算机、传媒、综 合。从资金流向角度来说，除通信、消费者服务、综合外所有行业主力资金净 流出，其中机械、医药、计算机、电力设备及新能源、基础化工主力资金净流 出居前。 本周股票型基金总仓位为 98.71%，相较于上周减少了 40 个 bps，混合型基金 总仓位 95.36%，相较于上周增加了 264 个 bps。 本周电力设备及新能源与通信获得最大机构 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][7]. Core Views - The company's profit decline has narrowed in Q2 2025, indicating a stabilization and recovery in profitability. The revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 320 million yuan, down 10.5% year-on-year [7]. - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, which has led to an increase in net profit margin to 11.7% in Q2 2025, marking a recent high [7]. - The company is actively expanding its market boundaries by targeting large clients and projects, and has signed or renewed framework cooperation agreements with over 20 key clients [7]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, particularly in regions such as the Middle East, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, in line with the Belt and Road Initiative [7]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 7.67 billion, 8.80 billion, and 10.15 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 795 million, 929 million, and 1.09 billion yuan [3][7]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.55 yuan in 2025, 1.81 yuan in 2026, and 2.13 yuan in 2027 [3][7]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 14 in 2025 to 10 by 2027, indicating an attractive valuation [3][7].