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“抢出口”动能或趋弱——5月PMI数据点评
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-01 07:15
Group 1: PMI Data Overview - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, up from 49.0% in the previous month[2] - The production index increased to 50.7%, a rise of 0.9 percentage points from 49.8%[2] - The new orders index is at 49.8%, up from 49.2%[2] - The new export orders index improved to 47.5%, compared to 44.7% previously[2] - The employment index stands at 48.1%, slightly up from 47.9%[2] Group 2: Export Dynamics - The new export orders index of 47.5% is lower than the average of 48% in Q1 2025 and 47.9% in Q4 2024[3] - The procurement index is at 47.6%, up from 46.3%, but below the average of 50.8% from October 2024 to March 2025[3] - The production index of 50.7% is below the average of 51.9% for the same period[3] - The factory price index remains low at 44.7%, slightly down from 44.8%[3] Group 3: U.S. Import Trends - U.S. import growth averaged 25.7% from January to March 2025, but dropped to 2.6% in April[4] - The U.S. import orders index averaged 51.3% in Q1 2025, falling to 47.1% in April[4] - U.S. import container volumes in May showed a year-on-year decline compared to April[4]
5月PMI数据点评:关注“抢出口”之下的预期差
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 15:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the temporary easing of China-US trade negotiations led to the release of previously postponed production demand, driving the PMI to rise. However, there is still uncertainty about the tariff outlook, and the recovery of new orders is relatively slow. The domestic off - season effect is becoming more prominent, and the contribution of domestic demand to new order growth has decreased compared to April [3][9]. - For the bond market, the fundamental conditions still provide support. Considering the historical experience of trade frictions from 2018 - 2019, there may be fluctuations in subsequent tariff policy negotiations. The uncertainty of external conditions may affect expectations, production, and inventory - stocking intentions and rhythms. The "rush - to - export" elasticity in May is not significantly higher than that in April, and the year - on - year increase in May's exports may be lower than expected. In the traditional off - season, the potential for unexpected growth in domestic demand in May is limited, so the bond market is still supported. Attention should be paid to the data verification in June and potential "expectation gaps" [3][41]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manufacturing PMI: External Disturbances Ease, PMI Moderately Recovers 3.1.1 Supply and Demand: Tariff Disturbances Ease, Production Accelerates Recovery - In May, production increased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 50.7%, returning to the expansion range. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in mid - May slowed the decline in exports, and the demand for existing foreign trade orders was released in an orderly manner, accelerating the production and procurement rhythms compared to April. The procurement volume index increased by 1.3 pct month - on - month to 47.6%, and imports increased by 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.1%, with the decline significantly narrowing [16]. - Demand stabilized in May, and new orders improved moderately. New orders increased by 0.6 pct month - on - month to 49.8% but remained in the contraction range. After the easing of trade negotiations, export orders recovered marginally, reducing the contraction of new orders. However, the difference between "new orders - new export orders" narrowed, and domestic demand orders decreased due to the off - season, which may limit the recovery of new orders [19]. 3.1.2 Foreign Trade: Negotiations Ease, New Export Orders are Concentratedly Released - In May, the easing of tariff negotiations led to the release of overseas order increments. New export orders and imports increased by 2.8 pct and 3.7 pct month - on - month to 47.5% and 47.1% respectively, with their elasticity restored. Combining the month - on - month changes in April and May, both were better than the same period in previous years, indicating a wider improvement in the foreign trade prosperity of manufacturing enterprises in May [26]. 3.1.3 Price: External Disturbances Narrow, Price Decline Slows - In May, the impact of the traditional off - season became more evident, and the prices of upstream bulk commodities remained weak, causing prices to decline slightly. The purchase price of raw materials and the ex - factory price both decreased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 46.9% and 44.7% respectively. Although the price continued to weaken marginally, the narrowing of external disturbances slowed the price decline [31]. 3.1.4 Inventory: Increased Procurement Boosts Raw Material Replenishment, and Products are Rapidly De - stocked - In May, with the acceleration of procurement, raw material inventories increased, and downstream de - stocking accelerated. The easing of the negotiation situation accelerated the shipment of downstream exports, and finished product inventories decreased by 0.8 pct month - on - month to 46.5%. As the production rhythm recovered, the material procurement volume increased month - on - month, and raw material inventories increased by 0.4 pct month - on - month to 47.4% [35]. 3.2 Non - manufacturing PMI: The Drag of Real Estate Construction May Continue to Expand, and the Service Industry during the Holiday Season Shows Many Highlights - In May, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 pct. Among them, the service industry PMI increased by 0.1 pct month - on - month to 50.2%, and the construction industry PMI decreased by 0.9 pct month - on - month to 51.0%, with the expansion continuing to slow due to the drag of real estate construction demand [36]. 3.2.1 Construction Industry - In May, the construction industry PMI continued to decline, while infrastructure demand further strengthened. The new export orders of civil engineering construction rose above 60%, significantly driving the industry PMI to climb for two consecutive months and reach above 62%. The easing of trade negotiations boosted the acceleration of overseas infrastructure investment to some extent. However, the overall construction industry PMI continued to decline, indicating that the activity rhythm of the housing construction industry may have further contracted in May [2][36]. 3.2.2 Service Industry - Holiday consumption boosted the improvement of the service industry PMI. In May, the expansion of the service industry PMI accelerated slightly. The production and new order indices of the information service industry maintained strong expansion. The release of consumption demand during the May Day holiday significantly increased the month - on - month PMI of railway, air, and water transportation industries. The accommodation and catering industries rose above the boom - bust line, ending three consecutive months of contraction [2][36].
爱博医疗(688050):深度研究报告:眼科器械领域创新先驱,“医疗+消费”双驱动
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 08:38
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 98 CNY based on a 40x valuation for 2025 [3][11]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the ophthalmic device sector, focusing on intraocular lenses, orthokeratology lenses, and contact lenses, and is strategically expanding its product matrix to cover the entire eye health lifecycle [7][15]. - The company has demonstrated strong R&D capabilities, achieving key technological breakthroughs in various fields, particularly in multi-focal intraocular lenses, which have disrupted the import monopoly [7][15]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth trajectory, with projected revenue growth from 1.41 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.79 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.2% [3][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - The company was established in 2010 and has a strong R&D foundation, with a focus on innovative ophthalmic devices [15]. - It has successfully commercialized products in surgical treatment, myopia prevention, and vision care, making it one of the few companies in China to achieve this across multiple categories [15]. Section 2: Intraocular Lenses - The company is a leading domestic player in the intraocular lens market, focusing on the mid-to-high-end segments [9][36]. - It has introduced innovative products such as the first domestic toric intraocular lens and the first multi-focal intraocular lens, which have performed well in national procurement [9][36]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in demand for cataract surgeries due to an aging population, projecting the number of surgeries to rise to 7 million by 2030 [38]. Section 3: Orthokeratology Lenses - The company’s orthokeratology lenses are positioned in the first tier of product performance, with a focus on myopia prevention [10]. - The market for these lenses is expected to grow rapidly, supported by increasing recognition in myopia prevention guidelines [10]. Section 4: Contact Lenses - The company is leveraging its strong foundational technology from intraocular lenses to expand into the high-end and consumer segments of the contact lens market [10]. - Recent acquisitions have enhanced its capabilities in colored contact lenses and expanded its retail channels [10]. Section 5: Financial Projections and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion CNY, 5.9 billion CNY, and 7.1 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 2.45 CNY, 3.03 CNY, and 3.69 CNY [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in profit margins as the impact of national procurement pricing on intraocular lenses diminishes and as the contact lens business matures [21][22].
非银金融行业重大事项点评:港股金融:哪些标的在战胜基准?
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 08:35
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" indicating an expectation that the industry index will rise more than 5% compared to the benchmark index in the next 3-6 months [39]. Core Insights - The report focuses on the high-quality development of the public fund industry in China and emphasizes the importance of "beating the benchmark" as a core mission for active management. It specifically explores investment strategies for Hong Kong non-A+H financial stocks to help investors achieve excess returns [2][27]. - The report identifies several non-A+H financial stocks in Hong Kong that have historically generated strong alpha, providing insights into potential investment opportunities [2][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Hong Kong Non-A+H Financial Stocks - The report provides an overview of the holdings of active equity funds in Hong Kong non-A+H financial stocks, with a weighted average benchmark comprising 53% CSI 300, 24% CSI 800, and others, indicating a significant allocation to Hong Kong stocks [3][4]. 2. Historical Performance of Non-A+H Financial Stocks - The Hong Kong non-A+H financial index shows a higher dividend yield of 4.53% compared to 2.06% for the A-share non-financial index, suggesting a more attractive income profile for investors [7][8]. - The report highlights that 44 stocks exhibited excess returns in 2025, with notable performers including 易鑫集团 (Easy Finance) with a 112.7% return and 香港交易所 (Hong Kong Stock Exchange) with a 20.3% return [9][11]. 3. Performance Analysis by Year - In 2024, 61 stocks achieved excess returns, with 国泰君安国际 (Guotai Junan International) leading at 78.6% [14][15]. - In 2023, 81 stocks showed excess returns, with OSL Group achieving a remarkable 304.2% return, benefiting from the rise in cryptocurrency asset prices [19][25]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on non-A+H financial stocks that have stable earnings or improving fundamentals, specifically highlighting 中国财险 (China Pacific Insurance) and 香港交易所 (Hong Kong Stock Exchange) as long-term outperformers [27].
英伟达(NVDA):FY26Q1业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要:Blackwell占比已到7成,推理agent、工业AI、主权AI开启算力新投资时代
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 07:49
证 券 研 究 报 告 2. 细分业务情况:(1)数据中心:FY26Q1 营收创历史新高,达 391 亿美元, 环比增长 10%,同比增长 73%。其中,计算营收 342 亿美元,同比+76%, 环 比+5%;网络营收 49.57 亿美元,同比+56%,环比+64%。Blackwell GPU 产能 爬坡是公司历史上最快的,推动了数据中心营收同比增长 73%。本季度 Blackwell 贡献了近 70%的数据中心计算营收,从 Hopper 的转型接近完成。 (2)游戏:FY26Q1 收入为 37.63 亿美元,环比+48%,同比+42%。游戏玩家、 创意人士和 AI 爱好者的强劲采用使 Blackwell 架构显卡成为公司有史以来最 快的产能爬坡。(3)专业可视化:FY26Q1 收入为 5.09 亿美元,环比几乎持 平,同比增长 19%。关税相关的不确定性暂时影响了第一季度的系统和需求, AI 工作站的需求强劲,公司预计第二季度营收将恢复环比增长。(4)汽车和 机器人:FY26Q1 收入为 5.67 亿美元,环比-1%,同比增长 72%,同比增长是 由众多客户的自动驾驶产能爬坡以及新能源汽车的强劲终端需求推动 ...
英伟达(NVIDIA)FY26Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 07:20
Blackwell 占比已到 7 成,推理 agent、工业 AI、主权 AI 开启算力新投资时代 事项: 1. 业绩情况:(1)营收 441 亿美元(YoY+69%,QoQ+12%),显著高于市场 预期的 433 亿美元及公司指引的 430±2%亿美元,主要受益于数据中心业务的 持续爆发(Q1数据中心收入 391亿美元,YoY+73%,QoQ+10%),其中 Blackwell 贡献数据中心计算收入 7 成。关于 H20,一季度产生了 45 亿美元费用,略好 于预期主要系部分材料库存复用,预计二季度将损失 80 亿美元收入。(2)本 季度,GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率分别为 60.5%和 61.0%。若不计入 45 亿美元 的费用,第一季度非 GAAP 毛利率将达到 71.3%。(3)本季度,GAAP 和非 GAAP 稀释每股收益分别为 0.76 美元和 0.81 美元。若不计入 45 亿美元的费 用及相关税费影响,第一季度非 GAAP 稀释每股收益为 0.96 美元。 证 券 研 究 报 告 英伟达(NVIDIA)FY26Q1 业绩点评及业绩说明会纪要 2025 年 5 月 29 日 NVIDIA 发 ...
星环科技(688031):2025年一季报点评:25Q1亏损同比收窄,大模型业务初现突破
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 07:17
证 券 研 究 报 告 星环科技-U(688031)2025 年一季报点评 推荐(维持) 25Q1 亏损同比收窄,大模型业务初现突破 目标价:52.93 元 事项: 星环科技发布 2025 年一季报,报告期内实现营业收入 6436 万元,同比增长 2.59%;归母净利润-8358 万元;扣非净利润-8785 万元。2024 年,公司实现营 业收入 3.71 亿元,同比下降 24.31%;归母净利润-3.43 亿元;扣非净利润-3.80 亿元。 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 371 | 427 | 508 | 605 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -343 | -238 | -159 | -103 | | 同比增速(%) | -19.2% | 30.7% | 33.3% | 34.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | -2.8 ...
爱博医疗(688050)深度研究报告:眼科器械领域创新先驱,“医疗+消费”双驱动
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 07:15
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 98 CNY based on a DCF model evaluation [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the ophthalmic device sector, focusing on intraocular lenses, orthokeratology lenses, and contact lenses, and is strategically expanding its product matrix [6][14]. - The company has established itself as a leading domestic player in the intraocular lens market, with a strong product lineup and favorable bidding results in national procurement [8][46]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for cataract surgeries due to an aging population, which is expected to drive growth in the intraocular lens market [36][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2010 and has a strong R&D capability, achieving key technological breakthroughs in various fields, including multifocal intraocular lenses, thus breaking the import monopoly [6][14]. - The company has a diversified product matrix, focusing on intraocular lenses, orthokeratology lenses, and contact lenses, and aims to cover the entire lifecycle of eye health products [14][26]. Intraocular Lenses - The company is a domestic leader in intraocular lenses, with a comprehensive product system and good performance in national procurement [8][35]. - The report notes that cataract surgeries are the most direct and effective treatment for cataracts, which are prevalent among the elderly population [35][36]. - The company has successfully introduced innovative products, including the first domestic toric intraocular lens and a dual-focus intraocular lens, which has been well-received in national procurement [8][46]. Orthokeratology Lenses - The company’s orthokeratology lenses are positioned in the first tier of product performance, with ongoing efforts to expand the myopia prevention industry chain [9][20]. - The increasing prevalence of myopia among children and adolescents is driving demand for orthokeratology lenses, which have been recognized in national guidelines [9][20]. Contact Lenses - The company has a solid technological foundation for contact lenses, aiming to penetrate both high-end and consumer markets [9][20]. - Recent acquisitions have accelerated the development of the contact lens business, with plans to focus on high-end silicone hydrogel contact lenses and soft contact lenses for consumer markets [9][20]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion CNY, 5.9 billion CNY, and 7.1 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.45 CNY, 3.03 CNY, and 3.69 CNY [2][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profit margins as the impact of national procurement pricing on intraocular lenses diminishes and the contact lens business stabilizes [20][10]. Market Potential - The report projects that the intraocular lens market in China could reach 100 billion CNY by 2030, driven by increasing surgical demand and the ongoing shift towards domestic products [41][42]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing market share of domestic brands in the intraocular lens sector, which is expected to continue rising due to national procurement policies [42][46].
港股金融:哪些标的在战胜基准?
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 04:20
行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 05 月 31 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号:证监许可(2009)1210 号 未经许可,禁止转载 港股金融:哪些标的在战胜基准? | 华创证券研究所 | | --- | | 证券分析师:徐康 | | 电话:021-20572556 | | 邮箱:xukang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号:S0360518060005 | 事项: 前言:《公募基金高质量发展行动方案》推出以来,对中国公募基金行业发展产生深 远影响,作为资本市场最重要的机构投资者,未来"战胜基准"成为主动管理的重要使 命和考核核心,本篇报告聚焦港股非 A+H 金融股配置,通过历史复盘,探索港股非 A+H 非银金融股获取超额的方法,力图为配置该板块的投资者跑赢基准提供策略支持。 根据我们于 2025 年 5 月 9 日发布的报告《非银金融行业深度研究报告:公募基金业改 革:利益一致性的全面平衡》,按规模加权的行业平均基准为:53%*沪深 300+24%*中证 800+6%*中证 500+7%*中证港股通+8%*恒生指数+2%*中证 700。粗略计算,平均基准中 证港股通+恒生指数权重占比 ...
星环科技-U(688031)2025 年一季报点评:25Q1 亏损同比收窄,大模型业务初现突破
Huachuang Securities· 2025-05-31 04:15
公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 星环科技-U(688031)2025 年一季报点评 推荐(维持) 25Q1 亏损同比收窄,大模型业务初现突破 目标价:52.93 元 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:吴鸣远 邮箱:wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360523040001 事项: 星环科技发布 2025 年一季报,报告期内实现营业收入 6436 万元,同比增长 2.59%;归母净利润-8358 万元;扣非净利润-8785 万元。2024 年,公司实现营 业收入 3.71 亿元,同比下降 24.31%;归母净利润-3.43 亿元;扣非净利润-3.80 亿元。 评论: [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 371 | 427 | 508 | 605 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -343 | -238 | -1 ...