1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The interest rate cut space is limited, and around 1.55% may be the "resistance level" for the pricing of 1-year state-owned and joint-stock bank certificates of deposit. The supply of certificates of deposit may be relatively active in March due to a high maturity scale and strong credit performance. There is still a strong allocation preference from small and medium-sized banks and product accounts. Policy rate cuts may be relatively cautious, and if the policy rate does not cut, the probability of further compression of MLF pricing is limited, so the downward breakthrough space for 1-year state-owned and joint-stock bank certificates of deposit is narrow [2][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply: Net financing turns positive, and the term structure continues to widen - This week (March 2 - March 8), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 71.72 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 12.921 billion yuan (last week was -21.271 billion yuan). The issuance proportion of state-owned banks increased from 15% to 19%, and that of joint-stock banks decreased from 46% to 35%. The weighted issuance term of certificates of deposit lengthened to 8.66 months (previous value was 6.96 months) [2][5]. - Next week (March 9 - March 15), the maturity scale will increase significantly to 100.64 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 41.888 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state-owned and joint-stock banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 3M and 6M certificates of deposit are relatively high, at 25.7 billion yuan and 23.026 billion yuan respectively [2][5]. Demand: Small and medium-sized banks are the main secondary allocation players, and the primary market subscription rate declines slightly - In terms of secondary allocation institutions, the weekly net purchases of small and medium-sized banks increased slightly from 7.4479 billion yuan to 18.2892 billion yuan; the weekly net purchases of large banks increased from -4.9069 billion yuan to 197.43 yuan; the weekly net sales of money market funds increased from 4.5129 billion yuan to 16.3888 billion yuan; other types of institutions had weekly net purchases of 4.6689 billion yuan, an increase of 1.8155 billion yuan compared with last week (2.8534 billion yuan) [2][19]. - In terms of primary issuance, the overall primary market subscription rate (15DMA) declined to 93%. By institution, the subscription rate of joint-stock banks remained unchanged at 96%, that of city commercial banks decreased from 89% to 87%, that of state-owned banks decreased from 99% to 98%, and that of rural commercial banks increased from 84% to 85% [2][19]. Valuation: The primary and secondary pricing of certificates of deposit declines slightly - In terms of primary pricing, the weighted issuance rate of 1-year joint-stock bank certificates of deposit declined to 1.56%. Specifically, the 3M certificates of deposit of joint-stock banks declined by 5bp compared with last week, the 9M certificates of deposit declined by 4bp, and the 1-year variety continued to fluctuate at a low level, declining by 4bp compared with last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint-stock banks is 4.15bp, at the 12% historical quantile. In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1-year city commercial banks and joint-stock banks is 9.7BP, with the spread quantile around 12%; the spread between rural commercial banks and joint-stock banks is 12.05BP, with the spread quantile around 37% [2][21]. - In terms of secondary yields, the yields of AAA-rated certificates of deposit declined slightly. Specifically, the 1M variety remained unchanged compared with last week, the 3M and 9M varieties declined by 5bp compared with last week, the 6M variety declined by 4bp, and the 1Y variety declined by 3bp, around 1.55%. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA-rated certificates of deposit is 4.5bp, at the 17% historical quantile level [2][31]. Comparison: The spreads between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds and policy bank bonds have narrowed - In terms of asset comparison, the spreads between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds and policy bank bonds have narrowed. Specifically, the spread between the yield of 1-year AAA-rated certificates of deposit and the DR007:15DMA funding spread widened from -7.58BP to 8.56BP; the spread with the R007:15DMA funding spread narrowed from -1.75BP to -0.65BP; the spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds slightly narrowed from 3.27BP to 1.98BP, and the quantile declined to 17%; the spread between certificates of deposit and policy bank bonds narrowed from 2.41BP to -2.20BP, and the quantile declined to around 33%. In addition, the spread between AAA medium and short-term notes and certificates of deposit widened from 0BP to 1.68BP, and the quantile increased to around 8% [2][37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions, especially the escalation of the US - Iran conflict, have led to increased inflation concerns. Rising oil prices mainly affect PPI, with a relatively limited impact on CPI, and the long - term impact on the bond market is controllable, but short - term inflation expectations may cause fluctuations [1][25][33]. - The Two Sessions set a clear macroeconomic tone, including promoting high - quality development in the 14th Five - Year Plan, implementing proactive fiscal policies, maintaining moderately loose monetary policies, and strengthening financial supervision [34][38][39][42]. - In the bond market strategy, the short - end has limited downward space, while the long - end suggests holding existing assets and preferring elastic varieties for new funds [2][3][50][61]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Geopolitical Driven Inflation Concerns 3.1.1 US - Iran Tensions and Market Volatility - The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has increased risk - aversion sentiment, causing significant fluctuations in the equity and commodity markets. Oil prices have soared, with Brent and WTI crude futures exceeding $90 per barrel. The CSI 300 has fallen 1.1%, and energy and defensive sectors have performed relatively well [11][13]. 3.1.2 Impact of Oil Prices on Inflation and the Bond Market - Oil prices mainly affect PPI, with a 10% adjustment in oil prices potentially driving a 0.35 - percentage - point change in PPI, and a relatively small impact on CPI (usually within 0.1 percentage points). If oil prices remain high, PPI may turn positive in April [15][16][22]. - In the long run, the impact of rising oil prices on the bond market is controllable, but short - term inflation expectations may cause fluctuations, especially when PPI breaks through critical points [25][29]. 3.2 Two Sessions Tracking 3.2.1 Macroeconomic Tone - The 14th Five - Year Plan focuses on high - quality development. The expected GDP growth rate of 4.5% - 5% is achievable. In consumption, there are measures for commodity and service consumption, as well as targeted policies for the sinking market. Investment will increase government investment and promote the construction of "six networks" and key areas. A national - level merger fund will be established to develop six new pillar industries and six future industries [34][35][37]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Policy - The proactive fiscal policy is reflected in both the scale of funds and policy synergy. In 2026, fiscal spending, new government bonds, and central - to - local transfer payments have reached new highs. A 100 - billion - yuan package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial cooperation has been introduced [38]. 3.2.3 Monetary Policy - The moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with comprehensive use of short -, medium -, and long - term policy tools. The central bank will strengthen the implementation and supervision of interest rate policies, and the exchange rate is at a medium - level range. It is also studying a liquidity support mechanism for non - bank institutions in specific situations [39][40]. 3.2.4 Financial Supervision - Two measures will be introduced soon: deepening the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market and optimizing the refinancing mechanism. The goal is to guide industry institutions to focus on their main businesses and develop in a standardized way [42]. 3.3 Bond Market Strategy 3.3.1 Short - end Bonds - After the Spring Festival, the capital situation has remained loose, but the central bank's liquidity injection has been relatively restrained. The short - end bond market has limited downward space, with the 1 - year national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit potentially reaching a "resistance level" at 1.55%. The credit spread of bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years has been compressed to a historical low [2][50][52]. 3.3.2 Long - end Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to remain within the range of 30 - 50bp above the OMO rate. The US - Iran situation may affect market risk appetite, and inflation expectations may rise due to rising oil prices. For coupon collection, convex - type bonds can be considered, such as 5 - year China Development Bank bonds for the medium - short term, 8 - year Export - Import Bank of China bonds for the long term, and 15 - 20 - year local government bonds for insurance funds. Existing assets can be held, and new funds can be invested in more liquid and elastic varieties [54][58][61]. 3.4 Interest - rate Bond Market Review 3.4.1 Capital Market - The central bank has significantly net -回笼 funds through OMO, but the capital market has remained balanced and loose [62][64][65]. 3.4.2 Primary Market Issuance - The net financing of Treasury bonds has decreased, while the net financing of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit has increased [75][77][78]. 3.4.3 Benchmark Changes - The term spreads of Treasury bonds and China Development Bank bonds have both widened, with short - end bonds performing better than long - end bonds [68][79][80].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the oil shipping sector, indicating a positive outlook for mid-term market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significantly increased tanker freight rates, with a notable rise in oil prices and shipping costs [2][4]. - The volume of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased due to ongoing threats and insurance cancellations, with a reported average decline of over 90% from March 2 to March 5 [1][17]. - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions are driving up shipping prices, with VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates reaching historical highs [2][4]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Oil Shipping - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil trade, accounting for approximately 38% of maritime crude oil trade [13]. - The average number of vessels passing through the Strait has dropped to about 14, compared to a two-month average of 145 vessels, indicating severe disruptions [17]. - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude reaching $93 per barrel, a 12% increase since the end of February [2][23]. - VLCC-TCE rates have skyrocketed to $380,000 per day, marking a 91.2% week-on-week increase, with Middle East to China routes quoted at $470,000 per day [2][23]. Section 2: Industry Data Tracking - Domestic civil aviation passenger volume increased by 5.9% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period, with average ticket prices rising by 3.3% [42]. - The outbound air cargo price index at Shanghai Pudong Airport rose by 0.3% week-on-week and 8.8% year-on-year [63]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes two investment themes for 2026: "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" [9]. - In shipping, the report suggests focusing on the supply-demand gap, particularly in oil and dry bulk shipping, as geopolitical risks and compliance market conditions improve [66]. - For aviation, the report highlights the potential for high elasticity in ticket prices due to supply constraints and rising passenger demand [70]. - In logistics, the report recommends leading express delivery companies like ZTO and YTO, as well as the high-growth potential of SF Express in the instant delivery sector [72][73].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the insurance sector, indicating that the sector is expected to show a price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][19]. Core Insights - The insurance sector is currently undergoing adjustments, which may reveal value in terms of cost-effectiveness for investors. The report suggests that after recent adjustments, the sector's valuation is relatively low, making it an attractive option for investment [4][9]. - The report highlights that in February 2026, the new insurance policies in the bancassurance market reached 69 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, although it experienced a month-on-month decline of 67.6% [4]. - The report emphasizes the government's recognition of the insurance industry's role in supporting national objectives and enhancing public welfare, as evidenced by multiple mentions in the government work report [4]. Company-Specific Summaries - **China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH)**: The stock price is 39.24 yuan, with projected EPS of 5.68 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.91. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **China Life Insurance (601628.SH)**: The stock price is 42.69 yuan, with projected EPS of 6.34 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.73. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK)**: The stock price is 15.78 yuan, with projected EPS of 2.07 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 6.72. The company is rated as "Recommended" [5]. - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: The stock price is 62.67 yuan, with projected EPS of 8.02 yuan for 2025E, and a PE ratio of 7.82. The company is rated as "Strongly Recommended" [5]. Market Performance - The insurance index decreased by 1.48%, underperforming the broader market by 0.41 percentage points. Individual stock performances varied, with notable declines in several companies, including China Life and China Pacific [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the oil shipping sector, indicating a positive outlook for mid-term market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significantly increased tanker freight rates, with a notable rise in oil prices and shipping costs [2][4]. - The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has drastically decreased due to ongoing threats and insurance cancellations, impacting global oil supply [1][17]. - The report highlights the potential for a supply-demand gap in the shipping market, driven by geopolitical risks and increased compliance requirements [4][66]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on Oil Shipping - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for global oil trade, has seen a more than 90% drop in vessel traffic due to security threats [1][17]. - At least 12 vessels have been confirmed attacked, leading to temporary disruptions in port operations and oil production in Iraq [20][22]. - Brent crude oil prices rose to $93 per barrel, a 12% increase from late February, while VLCC-TCE rates reached $380,000 per day, marking a historical high [2][23]. Section 2: Industry Data Tracking - Domestic civil aviation passenger volume increased by 5.9% year-on-year during the Spring Festival period, with ticket prices also rising [42]. - The outbound air cargo price index at Shanghai Pudong Airport increased by 0.3% week-on-week and 8.8% year-on-year [63]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes two investment themes for 2026: "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" [9]. - In shipping, the report suggests focusing on oil and dry bulk sectors, highlighting the potential for increased market activity due to geopolitical risks and compliance improvements [66]. - For aviation, the report recommends major airlines and low-cost carriers, anticipating a rebound in passenger demand and operational efficiency [68][70]. - In logistics, the report identifies opportunities in leading express delivery companies, particularly in the context of e-commerce growth [71][72]. Section 4: Dividend Assets - The report suggests focusing on highway and port companies with strong dividend potential, highlighting firms like Sichuan Chengyu and Zhanjiang Port as key investment targets [73][74].

- The report discusses multiple quantitative timing models for A-shares, including the "Volume Model" (neutral), "Feature Institutional Model" (bearish), "Feature Volume Model" (bearish), "Smart Algorithm Model for CSI 300" (neutral), and "Smart Algorithm Model for CSI 500" (neutral) [1][10][67] - For mid-term A-share models, the "Limit Up and Down Model" is neutral, while the "Up and Down Return Difference Model" is bullish for most broad-based indices. The "Calendar Effect Model" remains neutral [1][11][68] - The long-term A-share model, "Momentum Model," is neutral [1][12][69] - Comprehensive A-share models, such as "Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model" and "Comprehensive Guozheng 2000 Model," are bearish [1][13][70] - For Hong Kong stocks, the mid-term "Turnover to Volatility Model" is bearish, while the "Up and Down Return Difference Model" and its similar variant are neutral [1][14][71] - The report emphasizes that timing strategies are built on multi-cycle and multi-strategy systems, including short-term, mid-term, and long-term models. These models incorporate factors like price-volume, acceleration, trend, momentum, and limit up/down to achieve a balance between defensive and aggressive strategies [8] - The backtesting results for the "Double Bottom Pattern" show a weekly decline of -2.25%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.32%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 24.42%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.67% [41][50] - The "Cup and Handle Pattern" experienced a weekly decline of -2.18%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by -1.25%. Since December 31, 2020, the cumulative return of this pattern is 21.94%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.19% [41][45]

Group 1: Credit Strategy - The report emphasizes the opportunity for profit-taking in long-duration credit bonds due to the entry of insurance funds in March, which is expected to compress credit spreads further [1][10][25] - Since February, the report has highlighted the value of long-duration credit bonds, suggesting that they are relatively cost-effective and should be actively traded, with a recommendation to take profits when credit spreads are approximately 10 basis points above the lowest point expected in 2025 [1][25][26] - The report notes that the insurance sector's behavior significantly influences the bond market, particularly during the seasonal peak of premium income in March, which typically accounts for about 40% of annual premium income [29][30] Group 2: Market Overview - The credit bond market has seen a general decline in yields, with a mixed performance in credit spreads, particularly in the mid to long-end segments [5][10][13] - The report indicates that the performance of credit bonds varies, with high-grade long-duration bonds showing significant improvement, while lower-grade bonds have less favorable outcomes [5][13][25] - The report anticipates that the market will continue to be influenced by institutional behavior, particularly as insurance funds enter the market post the National People's Congress, which is expected to enhance demand for credit bonds [6][10][26] Group 3: Investment Insights - The report suggests that funds should focus on high-convexity and liquid individual bonds, such as AA+ rated medium-term notes with durations of 5.5-6 years and 8.5-9 years [3][5][10] - It highlights that the net buying of credit bonds by various institutions has increased compared to the previous week, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment [5][10][25] - The report also notes that the insurance sector has shown a preference for dividend insurance products, which are expected to drive strong performance in the upcoming "opening month" of 2026 [2][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the low-altitude economy, which has been included in government work reports for three consecutive years and is recognized as a key emerging industry [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy has been elevated to a strategic emerging industry, with significant government backing as seen in the 2024 and 2025 government work reports, emphasizing the need for robust development and application of new technologies [5][6]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of accelerated construction in the low-altitude economy, focusing on four application scenarios, two new infrastructure projects, and five industry chain segments to identify investment opportunities [7][21]. - The report highlights key companies with clear competitive advantages, including market leaders such as WanFeng AoWei, ZongShen Power, and YiHang Intelligent, as well as smaller market caps like FuLin YunYe and ZongHeng Co [7][22]. Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy is part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with 109 major projects, including low-altitude equipment and infrastructure development [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating new technologies in the low-altitude sector, which is expected to drive growth and innovation [5][6]. Market Performance - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index experienced a 0.9% decline this week but has risen 4.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 0.7% [13][15]. - Notable stock performances include ZongShen Power with a 20% increase and YiHang Intelligent with a 14% increase this week [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the low-altitude economy, including manufacturing, supply chain, digitalization, and operational aspects, to explore commercial opportunities [21][22]. - Key recommended companies include WanFeng AoWei for its dual focus on general aviation and eVTOL, and ZongShen Power for its strong growth in traditional and emerging sectors [22][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the low-altitude economy, which has been included in government work reports for three consecutive years and is recognized as a key emerging industry [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy has been elevated to a strategic emerging industry, with significant government backing as seen in the 2024 and 2025 government work reports, emphasizing the need for robust development and application of new technologies [5][6]. - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year of accelerated construction in the low-altitude economy, focusing on four application scenarios, two new infrastructure projects, and five industry chain segments to identify investment opportunities [7][21]. - The report highlights key companies with clear competitive advantages, including market leaders such as WanFeng AoWei, ZongShen Power, and YiHang Intelligent, as well as smaller market cap stocks like FuLin YunYe and ZongHeng Co [7][22]. Industry Overview - The low-altitude economy is part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" with 109 major projects, including low-altitude equipment and infrastructure development [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of integrating new production capabilities and military applications, particularly in the context of drone technology and counter-drone systems, which are increasingly relevant due to global security concerns [9][10][11]. Market Performance - The Huachuang Transportation Low-altitude 60 Index experienced a weekly decline of 0.9% but has risen 4.8% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 0.7% over the same period [13][15]. - Notable stock performances include ZongShen Power with a weekly increase of 20% and a year-to-date increase of 52% for FuLin YunYe, indicating strong market interest in these companies [16][17]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on various segments of the low-altitude economy, including manufacturing, supply chain, digitalization, and operational aspects, to explore commercial opportunities [21][22]. - Key recommended companies include WanFeng AoWei for general aviation and eVTOL, ZongShen Power for aviation engines, and YiHang Intelligent for eVTOL solutions, among others [22][23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 37.8 yuan, indicating an expectation of over 20% outperformance against the benchmark index in the next six months [2][16]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2025 reached 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.972 billion yuan, up 36.75% year-on-year [2]. - The increase in gold prices significantly contributed to the company's performance, with gold and silver prices rising by 43% and 35% respectively in 2025 [8]. - The company plans to produce 7-8 tons of gold in 2026, maintaining production levels for other metals [8]. - The company has made significant investments in resource exploration, with a total of 112 million yuan spent, resulting in a substantial increase in resource reserves [8]. - The company is also advancing its overseas projects, including the construction of the Twin Hills gold mine in Namibia, expected to commence production in the first half of 2027 [8]. Financial Summary - In 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.83%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - The projected net profits for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 4.776 billion yuan, 7.161 billion yuan, and 7.655 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.7%, 49.9%, and 6.9% [9]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 1.07 yuan, with estimates of 1.72 yuan, 2.58 yuan, and 2.76 yuan for the following years [9].