证 券 研 究 报 告 星环科技-U（688031）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 25Q1 亏损同比收窄，大模型业务初现突破 目标价：52.93 元 事项： 星环科技发布 2025 年一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 6436 万元，同比增长 2.59%；归母净利润-8358 万元；扣非净利润-8785 万元。2024 年，公司实现营 业收入 3.71 亿元，同比下降 24.31%；归母净利润-3.43 亿元；扣非净利润-3.80 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 371 | 427 | 508 | 605 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -343 | -238 | -159 | -103 | | 同比增速(%) | -19.2% | 30.7% | 33.3% | 34.9% | | 每股盈利(元) | -2.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 98 CNY based on a DCF model evaluation [2][10]. Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the ophthalmic device sector, focusing on intraocular lenses, orthokeratology lenses, and contact lenses, and is strategically expanding its product matrix [6][14]. - The company has established itself as a leading domestic player in the intraocular lens market, with a strong product lineup and favorable bidding results in national procurement [8][46]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for cataract surgeries due to an aging population, which is expected to drive growth in the intraocular lens market [36][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2010 and has a strong R&D capability, achieving key technological breakthroughs in various fields, including multifocal intraocular lenses, thus breaking the import monopoly [6][14]. - The company has a diversified product matrix, focusing on intraocular lenses, orthokeratology lenses, and contact lenses, and aims to cover the entire lifecycle of eye health products [14][26]. Intraocular Lenses - The company is a domestic leader in intraocular lenses, with a comprehensive product system and good performance in national procurement [8][35]. - The report notes that cataract surgeries are the most direct and effective treatment for cataracts, which are prevalent among the elderly population [35][36]. - The company has successfully introduced innovative products, including the first domestic toric intraocular lens and a dual-focus intraocular lens, which has been well-received in national procurement [8][46]. Orthokeratology Lenses - The company’s orthokeratology lenses are positioned in the first tier of product performance, with ongoing efforts to expand the myopia prevention industry chain [9][20]. - The increasing prevalence of myopia among children and adolescents is driving demand for orthokeratology lenses, which have been recognized in national guidelines [9][20]. Contact Lenses - The company has a solid technological foundation for contact lenses, aiming to penetrate both high-end and consumer markets [9][20]. - Recent acquisitions have accelerated the development of the contact lens business, with plans to focus on high-end silicone hydrogel contact lenses and soft contact lenses for consumer markets [9][20]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.7 billion CNY, 5.9 billion CNY, and 7.1 billion CNY for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.45 CNY, 3.03 CNY, and 3.69 CNY [2][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profit margins as the impact of national procurement pricing on intraocular lenses diminishes and the contact lens business stabilizes [20][10]. Market Potential - The report projects that the intraocular lens market in China could reach 100 billion CNY by 2030, driven by increasing surgical demand and the ongoing shift towards domestic products [41][42]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing market share of domestic brands in the intraocular lens sector, which is expected to continue rising due to national procurement policies [42][46].

行业研究 非银行金融 2025 年 05 月 31 日 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 未经许可，禁止转载 港股金融：哪些标的在战胜基准？ | 华创证券研究所 | | --- | | 证券分析师：徐康 | | 电话：021-20572556 | | 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com | | 执业编号：S0360518060005 | 事项： 前言：《公募基金高质量发展行动方案》推出以来，对中国公募基金行业发展产生深 远影响，作为资本市场最重要的机构投资者，未来"战胜基准"成为主动管理的重要使 命和考核核心，本篇报告聚焦港股非 A+H 金融股配置，通过历史复盘，探索港股非 A+H 非银金融股获取超额的方法，力图为配置该板块的投资者跑赢基准提供策略支持。 根据我们于 2025 年 5 月 9 日发布的报告《非银金融行业深度研究报告：公募基金业改 革：利益一致性的全面平衡》，按规模加权的行业平均基准为：53%*沪深 300+24%*中证 800+6%*中证 500+7%*中证港股通+8%*恒生指数+2%*中证 700。粗略计算，平均基准中 证港股通+恒生指数权重占比 ...

公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 星环科技-U（688031）2025 年一季报点评 推荐（维持） 25Q1 亏损同比收窄，大模型业务初现突破 目标价：52.93 元 | | | 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 事项： 星环科技发布 2025 年一季报，报告期内实现营业收入 6436 万元，同比增长 2.59%；归母净利润-8358 万元；扣非净利润-8785 万元。2024 年，公司实现营 业收入 3.71 亿元，同比下降 24.31%；归母净利润-3.43 亿元；扣非净利润-3.80 亿元。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 371 | 427 | 508 | 605 | | 同比增速(%) | -24.3% | 15.0% | 19.0% | 19.1% | | 归母净利润(百万) | -343 | -238 | -1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, more than half of the convertible bond sectors declined, and the valuation contracted on a month - on - month basis. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.06% month - on - month, while the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, SSE 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index all declined. The large - cap value style was relatively dominant. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 118.66 yuan, up 0.01% from yesterday. The valuation compressed, with the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate at 22.21%, down 0.15 pct from yesterday [2]. - Today, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices declined, with 25 industries falling in the A - share market and 18 in the convertible bond market. Different industries showed different trends in closing prices, conversion premium rates, conversion values, and pure bond premium rates [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 429.31, up 0.06% daily, down 0.09% weekly, up 1.90% monthly, and up 3.56% since the beginning of 2025. Other convertible bond - related indices and major A - share indices also showed different trends in daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes [6]. - In terms of style indices, large - cap value was relatively strong, with the large - cap growth index down 1.09%, and the large - cap value index up 0.14% [7]. 3.2 Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 5.8988 billion yuan, up 3.21% month - on - month, while the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 116.4246 billion yuan, down 4.05% month - on - month. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 35.262 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1.65 bp to 1.67% [1][8]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 118.66 yuan, up 0.01% from yesterday. The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 22.25%, down 1.27 pct from yesterday. The price median was 120.27 yuan, down 0.26% from yesterday [2]. - The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 22.21%, down 0.15 pct from yesterday. The overall weighted par value was 88.61 yuan, down 0.39% from yesterday [2]. 3.4 Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three declining industries were automobiles (- 1.91%), electronics (- 1.85%), and machinery and equipment (- 1.81%); the top three rising industries were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+ 1.20%), banking (+ 0.64%), and pharmaceutical biology (+ 0.37%). In the convertible bond market, the top three declining industries were communication (- 2.33%), automobiles (- 1.23%), and household appliances (- 1.14%); the top three rising industries were building materials (+ 3.21%), banking (+ 0.80%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+ 0.76%) [3]. - Different industries showed different trends in closing prices, conversion premium rates, conversion values, and pure bond premium rates. For example, the closing price of the large - cycle industry increased by 0.36% month - on - month, while the manufacturing industry decreased by 0.68% [3]. 3.5 Industry Rotation - Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, banking, and pharmaceutical biology led the rise. The report provided detailed data on the daily, weekly, monthly, and year - to - date changes in the underlying stocks and convertible bonds of various industries, as well as the valuation quantiles of the underlying stocks [55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [1][7][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 297 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.04%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 2.59 million yuan, showing a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [1][7]. - The company experienced a decline in revenue for the full year 2024, with a total of 1.736 billion yuan, down 9.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 18.586 million yuan, down 42.18% year-on-year [1][7]. - The report highlights that the company is building momentum for future growth through increased contracts and inventory, with a significant rise in new sales contracts and inventory levels [1][7]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: Total revenue was 1,736 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19 million yuan, down 42.2% [3][8]. - **2025 Projections**: Expected revenue growth of 11.2% to 1,932 million yuan, with net profit projected to increase significantly by 582.2% to 127 million yuan [3][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: Projected EPS for 2025 is 0.16 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 89 [3][8]. Business Segment Analysis - **Digital Finance**: Revenue for 2024 is expected to be 1.043 billion yuan, a decline of 9.2%, accounting for 60.1% of total revenue [7]. - **Big Data**: Anticipated revenue of 574 million yuan in 2024, down 7.4%, representing 33.1% of total revenue [7]. - **Comprehensive Financial Services**: Expected revenue of 119 million yuan, down 20.3%, making up 6.8% of total revenue [7]. Market Expansion - The company has established a foothold in Southeast Asia, with overseas revenue of 129 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%, and overseas contracts now account for 20% of total contracts [7][8]. - The report notes that the company has secured significant contracts in Thailand and Malaysia, indicating a strategic push for global expansion [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for bank stock allocation, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the historical performance of bank stocks, highlighting their ability to generate excess returns during stable or declining economic periods, while also noting their relative underperformance during economic upturns [11][13]. - Bank stocks are characterized as long-term investment champions, with average annualized returns of 12.58% over the past 20 years, ranking third among all sectors [34]. - The report identifies stable Return on Equity (ROE) and dividends as key sources of bank stock returns, with current industry ROE remaining above 9% despite a decline in net interest margins [38][45]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Review of Bank Stocks - The absolute returns of bank stocks are influenced by macroeconomic conditions and liquidity, with positive returns during economic growth and loose liquidity, and negative returns during economic downturns [11]. - Over the past 20 years, bank stocks have achieved excess returns in 14 out of those years, particularly during periods of market volatility [11][13]. 2. Sources of Bank Stock Returns - Bank stocks are noted for their stable ROE and dividends, with a significant portion of returns derived from economic growth options [34]. - The average annualized return for bank stocks over the past 20 years is 12.58%, with the sector consistently outperforming the broader market in various holding periods [34][18]. 3. Individual Bank Performance - The report highlights the varying performance of different banks, with state-owned banks showing lower volatility and stable returns, while regional banks have exhibited higher short-term returns [44]. - Historical data indicates that smaller banks have often led in absolute returns, particularly in recent years [41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on bank stock allocation, anticipating an increase in overall positions due to the influx of medium to long-term capital and reforms in public funds [7]. - Specific banks recommended for investment include major state-owned banks and strong regional banks with high provisioning coverage [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various policies from multiple aspects including macro - economy, finance, real estate, and tariffs. It details the latest policy trends and their potential impacts on different sectors, such as the support for small and micro - enterprises, the adjustment of deposit interest rates, and the progress of international trade negotiations. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - economic Tone - Eight departments jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, covering 8 aspects and 23 work measures [11]. - Shanghai, Henan, and Fujian introduced special consumption - boosting actions with different focuses and measures [12]. - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to issue the full - year "two - important" construction project list by the end of June and strengthen policy research and reserve [13]. 2. Fiscal Policy - New policy - based financial instruments may be introduced in the second quarter to support stable foreign trade and effective investment, with potential expansion of PSL and central fiscal subsidies [16]. - The 50 - year treasury bond issuance faced challenges, and the supply - demand relationship of long - term bonds may be unfavorable due to factors like pre - issued ultra - long bonds and slow growth of life insurance premiums [17]. - Over 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan replacement bonds have been issued, and the issuance peak has passed. Four regions have slow progress [17]. 3. Monetary Policy - The "moderately loose" monetary policy will continue, and attention should be paid to policies announced during the Lujiazui Forum [20]. - The seventh round of large - bank deposit listing interest rate cuts was implemented on May 20, and the impacts on the asset and liability sides of the bond market should be noted [21]. - In May, the MLF was over - renewed by 375 billion yuan, with net investment for three consecutive months [22]. 4. Financial Supervision - For science - innovation bonds, there are differential arrangements in the issuance and trading system, focusing on supporting equity investment institutions [24]. - The regulatory trial rating of bank wealth - management companies is in progress, and the disclosure of performance benchmarks of asset - management products will be regulated. The performance benchmarks of wealth - management products have been frequently lowered [25]. - Xinhua Insurance was approved to participate in the third - batch long - term investment reform pilot of insurance funds, and the third - batch pilot funds will be approved soon [26]. - The first batch of 26 new floating - rate funds were registered by the CSRC, and applications for multiple credit - bond ETFs to be included in the repurchase collateral pool were approved [27]. 5. Real Estate Policy - It is expected to issue the 2025 central budget investment plan for urban renewal by the end of June, and a special loan management method for urban renewal projects will be introduced [30]. - Guangdong Province encourages various forms to support rural migrants' housing purchases, and Hefei extended its housing subsidy policy [30]. - Shenzhen plans to prohibit the conversion of allocated affordable housing into commercial housing [31]. 6. Tariff Policy - China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 [32]. - The US - EU tariff negotiation deadline was extended to July 9 [34]. - The US Court of Appeals temporarily restored Trump's tariff policy [34].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating for Xintian Green Energy (00956.HK) with a target price of HKD 6.2, representing a potential upside of approximately 48% from the current price of HKD 4.2 [2][11]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the company's first-mover advantage in the offshore wind sector in Hebei and its potential for growth amid the rising marine economy. It highlights the company's high dividend yield and the attractiveness of its stock in the Hong Kong market [5][6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024A Financials**: Total revenue is projected at HKD 21,372 million, with a year-on-year growth of 5.38%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be HKD 1,661 million, reflecting a decline of 22.90% [1]. - **2025E Financials**: Revenue is forecasted to increase to HKD 25,564 million, a growth of 19.61%, with net profit rising to HKD 2,425 million, a growth of 46.01% [1]. - **2026E Financials**: Expected revenue of HKD 30,621 million, with a growth of 19.78%, and net profit of HKD 3,073 million, a growth of 26.76% [1]. - **2027E Financials**: Revenue projected at HKD 39,931 million, with a significant growth of 30.40%, and net profit of HKD 3,481 million, a growth of 13.26% [1]. Short-term Outlook - The company faced performance pressure in 2024 due to unfavorable weather conditions and asset impairments. However, the stock option incentive plan is expected to drive optimism for 2025, with a net profit target of approximately HKD 2.8 billion [7][47]. Long-term Growth Potential - The company holds a significant first-mover advantage in offshore wind projects in Hebei, having secured 1 million kW of the 1.8 million kW planned for the province. The marine economy's growth is anticipated to benefit the company significantly [8][59]. - The company has a robust project reserve, including approximately 3 GW of gas-fired power and 1 GW of offshore wind projects under construction, which supports long-term growth [9][10]. Dividend Yield - The report projects a dividend payout ratio of approximately 52.81% for 2024, with a potential dividend yield reaching nearly 9% under optimistic scenarios, making it attractive for investors [10][30].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 184.93 CNY, indicating a potential upside of 37% from the closing price on May 29, 2025 [2][11]. Core Viewpoints - The collaboration with Huawei has entered a harvest period, significantly improving the company's profitability. The sales of the "Wenjie" brand have positioned the company among the top new force brands in the market, leading to a substantial turnaround in profitability [8][11]. - The company has established a competitive advantage through the "6+1" capability framework, which includes product definition, R&D, channel management, supply chain, manufacturing, marketing, and management capabilities, supported by Huawei's empowerment [11][12]. Financial Overview - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 145.18 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 305%. The net profit is expected to reach 5.946 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 342.7% [3][11]. - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate continued growth, with revenues of 171.78 billion CNY, 187.10 billion CNY, and 209.04 billion CNY, respectively, and net profits of 10.069 billion CNY, 12.562 billion CNY, and 14.865 billion CNY [3][11]. Current Market Position - The "Wenjie" brand has achieved significant market share, with models like M9 and M7 ranking first and second in their respective segments. The M8 model is expected to achieve monthly sales of 18,000 to 20,000 units, potentially becoming a new sales champion in its segment [8][10][11]. - The company has transitioned from traditional fuel vehicles to new energy vehicles, with the "Wenjie" brand accounting for 78% of total sales in 2024 [25][26]. Competitive Advantages - The partnership with Huawei has enhanced the company's brand and technological capabilities, particularly in smart driving and intelligent cockpit systems, which are critical for high-end market positioning [10][12]. - The company's product matrix includes a range of high-end models, with the "Wenjie" brand focusing on the premium segment, leveraging Huawei's expertise in consumer electronics to meet user demands effectively [52][53].