证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 06 月 02 日 推荐（维持） 5 月行业销量复苏，全年销量展望乐观 华创证券研究所 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 5 月行业销量有所恢复，6 月车企加大年中冲刺营销力度，预计终端销售维持较好水平， 我们对全年销量依然乐观，预计全年零售增速 5.2%、批发增速 8.4%，后续随经济预期稳 定、政策发力、新车上市，销量水平有望维持在较好水平，尤其 20 万元以上高 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 有色金属行业周报（20250526-20250530） 推荐（维持） 国内铝库存持续去化，铝价受支撑 2、股票观点：看好铜、铝板块的表现 基本面上，本周五，上期所阴极铜库存 10.58 万吨，环比上周增加 7120 吨， COMEX 库存 180629 吨，环比上周增加 6022 吨；LME 铜库存 14.99 万吨， 环 比上周减少 16650 吨；本周四，全球社会显性库存 47.2 万吨，环比上周四 减少 12656 吨。重点推荐铜板块紫金矿业、金诚信、西部矿业，铝板块建议关 注中国宏桥、宏创控股、天山铝业、南山铝业、南山铝业国际。 二、新能源金属及小金属 行业研究 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120002 证券分析师：李梦娇 邮箱：limengjiao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525040002 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券周报】 港口拥堵再现，内外分化扩大 ——每周高频跟踪 20250602 工业高频：南方降水、关税预期反复，工业价格多回调 （1）动力煤：价格企稳、跌幅收窄。南方强降雨天气延续，水力发力挤压火 电，终端电厂日耗整体平稳运行，下游库存维持较高。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格跌幅走扩。本周螺纹钢现货价格环比-1.9%，表观需 求环比+0.7%、前周为-4.9%。建筑钢材价格震荡下行，房建需求偏弱，加之需 求季节性拐点已经出现，供给端产量维持高位，库存去化放缓，价格下跌。 （3）铜：铜价由跌转涨。长江有色铜、LME 铜均价环比分别+0.3%、+0.9%， 铜价转升。美方宣布将欧盟关税最后期限延长、关税政策可能叫停等宏观 利多因素提振风险偏好与宏观预期，铜价止跌回涨。 投资相关：南方梅雨季来临，水泥跌幅扩大 1、水泥：水泥价格跌幅继续扩大。水泥价格环比-2.0%、跌幅扩大。近期华南、 华东地区以多雨天气为主，市场需求疲弱。 2、地产：（1）30 城新房销售环比上行，对应月末冲刺效应。5 月 23 日-5 月 29 日，环比+14.5%，同比-3.0%，跌幅收窄。（2）二手房成交下探。二手房成 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 机械行业周报（20250526-20250601） 5 月制造业 PMI 回升，工程机械资金面加速 推荐（维持） 好转 重点公司盈利预测、估值及投资评级 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 行业研究 机械 2025 年 06 月 02 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：范益民 电话：021-20572562 邮箱：fanyimin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523020001 证券分析师：丁祎 邮箱：dingyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523030001 证券分析师：胡明柱 | | | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | PB（倍） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 简称 | 股价（元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 评级 | | 汇川技术 | 65.78 | 2.12 | 2.55 | 3.01 | 31.06 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the company Westair, highlighting its undervaluation in the global general aviation manufacturing sector [1][12]. Core Insights - Westair's aircraft deliveries in Q1 have doubled year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with a total of 150 aircraft delivered, capturing a 23.9% market share globally [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the industrial drone sector, particularly in emergency response, logistics, and inspection applications, driven by recent government policies [2][16]. - The report identifies key players in the industrial drone supply chain, including manufacturers, suppliers, and operational service providers, and highlights their strategic importance in the low-altitude economy [3][21]. Summary by Sections Westair Performance - In Q1, Westair delivered 150 aircraft, a 100% increase from the previous year, and is projected to maintain a significant market share in the upcoming quarters [1][11]. - The average selling price of Westair's SR2X series has increased by 26% compared to 2021, indicating a shift towards higher-end consumer attributes [1][12]. Industrial Drone Market - The industrial drone sector has seen increased market attention, particularly after recent government initiatives aimed at promoting low-altitude economic applications [2][16]. - The report outlines various applications for industrial drones, including emergency firefighting, logistics, and inspection, which are expected to yield significant economic benefits [18][21]. Supply Chain Analysis - Key manufacturers identified include Green Energy Huichong and Zongheng Co., focusing on heavy-lift drones and a comprehensive range of industrial drones [3][22]. - The supply chain also includes critical components such as propulsion systems and flight control systems, with companies like Zongshen Power and Zongheng Communication highlighted for their strategic roles [4][40][46]. Application and Market Opportunities - The report discusses the integration of drones in various sectors, including emergency response, logistics, and agriculture, emphasizing the potential for operational efficiencies and cost reductions [50][58]. - Companies like Zhongxin Haizhi and Sichuan Jiuzhou are noted for their collaborative efforts in establishing low-altitude logistics networks and emergency response systems [50][58]. Market Performance Indicators - The Huachuang Transportation Low Altitude 60 Index has shown a weekly increase of 3.8%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the low-altitude economy [10][64]. - Individual stock performances reveal significant gains for companies like Zongheng Co. and Westair, with increases of 26% and 25% respectively in the recent week [10][68].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [31]. Core Insights - The communication industry has shown resilience, with a weekly increase of 1.53%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.61 percentage points [9][10]. - Nvidia's FY26Q1 financial results indicate strong revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 69.18%, reaching $44.062 billion, driven by data center and gaming segments [16][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing development of the computing power industry chain, with a long-term positive outlook for both domestic and overseas markets [8][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry consists of 124 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 48,140.08 billion yuan [1]. - The industry has experienced a year-to-date decline of 4.12%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which has decreased by 2.41% [9]. Performance Metrics - The communication sector's PE-TTM is reported at 29.16, compared to 12.46 for the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index and 30.20 for the ChiNext index [5]. - The report notes that the communication sector's performance ranks 8th among all primary industries for the week and 21st for the year [10]. Nvidia's Financial Performance - Nvidia's data center revenue reached $39 billion in Q1, a 73% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by the Blackwell architecture [18]. - The gaming and AIPC segments generated $3.8 billion in revenue, reflecting a 42% increase, supported by the widespread adoption of Blackwell technology [19]. - The automotive segment saw a revenue increase of 72% year-on-year, totaling $567 million, driven by strong demand for autonomous driving solutions [21]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in various segments, including: - Telecom operators: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom [25]. - Optical modules and components: NewEase, Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Xuchuang [25]. - Military and satellite communication: Haige Communication, Shanghai Hanyun, 712 [25]. - Equipment manufacturers: Gongjin Co., Ltd., with additional attention to Ziguang Group, ZTE, and Ruijie Networks [25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the magnetic sensor industry, highlighting its potential growth driven by robotics and automotive applications [1]. Core Insights - The magnetic sensor market is expected to grow from USD 2.9 billion in 2023 to USD 3.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 4% [4][29]. - Key applications driving growth include automotive electronics, industrial automation, and consumer electronics, with significant increases in sensor usage in electric and intelligent vehicles [6][29]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, noting that leading international firms dominate the high-end market, while domestic manufacturers are accelerating their technological advancements and market share [7][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Magnetic Sensors: Core Perception Devices in the Smart Era - Magnetic sensors are essential for non-contact measurement of physical quantities like displacement and current, offering advantages in reliability and cost-effectiveness [11][13]. - The market is primarily dominated by Hall effect sensors, which hold a 64% market share, while TMR sensors are expected to gain traction due to their high sensitivity and low power consumption [16][18]. 2. Emerging Applications Driving Market Growth - Robotics: High-precision magnetic sensors are critical for joint control in humanoid robots, with the global humanoid robot market projected to reach USD 15.1 billion by 2030 [31][39]. - Automotive Electronics: The shift towards electric and intelligent vehicles is expected to double the number of magnetic sensors used per vehicle, increasing from 30-50 in traditional vehicles to 80-100 in hybrids and electric vehicles [46][49]. - New Energy: The recovery of the solar energy sector is anticipated to boost demand for TMR sensors in photovoltaic inverters [29][31]. 3. Competitive Landscape and Domestic Progress - The top five global manufacturers hold over 70% of the market share, with Allegro leading at 23% [7][29]. - Domestic companies like Naxin Microelectronics are making strides in technology and market presence, with new product launches and acquisitions enhancing their competitive edge [7][29]. 4. Related Companies - Naxin Microelectronics (688052) is highlighted for its revenue growth driven by automotive and robotics applications [4][7]. - Canrui Technology (688061) is noted for its dual focus on smart sensing and power management, actively pursuing high-end market opportunities [4][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market continued to fluctuate this week, with the yield of credit bonds showing a divergent trend. The yield of medium - and short - term notes within 1y increased by 3 - 4BP, while the yield of 7y medium - and short - term notes decreased by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of medium - and long - term varieties performed relatively better, with the credit spread of 7y varieties narrowing by 3 - 4BP [1][9]. - Looking forward, the tariff policy may fluctuate, and the money market is unlikely to be significantly looser in the short term. The bond market may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to focus on certain coupon opportunities. For investors with weak liability - side stability, they can focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties with relatively controllable risks and allocate some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For those with strong liability - side stability, they can allocate long - term varieties, but it is advisable to prioritize the coupon strategy [2][18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the central bank's OMO continued net injection. Due to factors such as the reduction of bank deposit rates, the maturity of certificates of deposit, and cross - month disturbances, the money market tightened briefly. There were signs of bond - selling by banks to realize floating profits, leading to an increase in bond - fund redemption sentiment, with insurance being the main net redeemer. The US tariff policy also changed, affecting the bond market sentiment. Overall, the bond market fluctuated, and the yield of credit bonds diverged [1][9]. - It was previously suggested that the spreads of short - term varieties within 2y were compressed to an extreme level, while there was still room for medium - and long - term varieties, and this view remains unchanged this week. Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry [2][13]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 27, 5 wealth - management companies joined the Insurance Asset Management Association, which may become an industry self - regulatory organization covering the entire bank - insurance asset management industry [3][19]. - On May 28, Cinda Asset visited the Guizhou Regulatory Bureau of the Ministry of Finance, and the two parties will cooperate on aspects such as real - economy development, state - owned enterprise reform, real - estate relief, industrial upgrading, and asset revitalization [3][19]. - On May 28, Changchun Rural Commercial Bank postponed the redemption of its secondary capital bond "20 Changchun Rural Commercial Secondary 01" by three months, which may reflect its pressure on capital adequacy ratio [3][20]. - On May 29, Moody's maintained the issuer ratings of 13 urban investment companies with a negative outlook, mainly considering factors such as the slowdown of China's potential economic growth, foreign - trade tensions, and local - fiscal pressure [3][20]. - On May 30, 9 credit - bond ETFs were officially included in the repurchase collateral pool, and the business may take effect on June 6. This will help improve market liquidity and trading activity, and meet the diversified investment needs of institutional investors [4][21]. 3.3 Secondary Market - The yield and spread of credit bonds showed a divergent trend, with the spreads of medium - and long - term varieties performing relatively better. For medium - and short - term notes, the yield of 1y varieties increased by 3 - 4BP, and the yield of 7y varieties decreased by 3 - 4BP, while the yields of other varieties fluctuated within a narrow range. The spreads of 1 - 2y varieties widened by 0 - 2BP, and the spreads of 3y and above varieties generally narrowed by 0 - 4BP [9][24]. - In the urban investment bond market, the yields of 2 - 5y AA(2) and below implicit - rating varieties decreased by 0 - 6BP, while the yields of other varieties generally increased by 1 - 4BP. The credit spreads showed a divergent trend. With the arrival of replacement bond funds in 2025, the risks in marginal regions may be further mitigated [24]. - In the real - estate bond market, medium - and long - term low - grade varieties performed prominently. The yields of 3 - 5y AA implicit - rating varieties decreased by 14 - 18BP, and the spreads of relevant varieties also narrowed significantly. The current yield of real - estate bonds is still attractive [25]. - In the cyclical bond market, the trends of coal bonds and steel bonds were similar. Except for some varieties with yield decreases, the yields of other varieties generally increased. The spreads of 4 - 5y varieties generally narrowed [25]. - In the financial bond market, the performance of bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds was weak, while the medium - and long - term varieties of insurance sub - bonds performed relatively better [26]. 3.4 Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 253.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was 48 billion yuan, an increase of 28.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 102.7 billion yuan, an increase of 35.3 billion yuan compared with the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 5.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5 billion yuan compared with the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity - The trading activity in the inter - bank market decreased slightly, while the trading activity in the exchange market increased slightly [6][7]. 3.6 Rating Adjustment - This week, the ratings of 1 entity were downgraded, and the ratings of 11 entities were upgraded [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the formulation sector's performance and valuation recovery opportunities due to the optimization of centralized procurement [14][18]. Core Viewpoints - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is at a low point, with public funds (excluding pharmaceutical funds) having low allocation to this sector. Considering the positive recovery of macroeconomic factors such as US Treasury rates, the report remains optimistic about the growth of the pharmaceutical industry by 2025, expecting a variety of investment opportunities to emerge [11][12]. - The report highlights the impact of the tenth batch of national procurement, which is expected to have an average price drop of 75%, causing significant market sentiment disturbances. This is attributed to an increase in the number of bidding companies and changes in procurement rules [16][14]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in the medical device sector, particularly in imaging equipment and home medical devices, and suggests focusing on companies like Mindray and Yuyue [11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 2.21%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.30 percentage points, ranking third among 30 primary industries [8]. - The top ten stocks by increase included Shutaishen, Huasan Pharmaceutical, and Changshan Pharmaceutical, while the top ten stocks by decrease included ST Xiangxue and Hai Sheng Pharmaceutical [8]. Overall View and Investment Themes - The report suggests a shift from quantity logic to quality logic in the domestic innovative drug sector, recommending a focus on differentiated and internationalized pipelines that can deliver profits by 2025 [11]. - In the medical device sector, there is a notable recovery in bidding volumes for imaging equipment, and the home medical device market is supported by subsidy policies [11]. - The report identifies a potential growth cycle in the specialty raw materials pharmaceutical industry, which is currently at a near ten-year low in valuation [11]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report anticipates a rebound in the market for essential medicines, with a focus on companies like Kunming Pharmaceutical and Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, as the growth rate of exclusive essential medicines is expected to significantly exceed that of non-essential medicines [13]. Pharmacy Sector - The report expresses confidence in the pharmacy sector's investment opportunities, driven by prescription outflow and market optimization, with a recommendation to focus on companies like YaoBaiYao and YiFeng Pharmacy [13]. Medical Services - The report notes that anti-corruption measures and centralized procurement are expected to enhance the competitive environment in the private medical sector, with recommendations for companies like Huashan Eye Hospital and Aier Eye Hospital [13]. Blood Products - The report indicates a favorable long-term growth path for the blood products industry, with companies like Tiantan Biological and Boya Biological expected to benefit from increased supply and demand elasticity post-pandemic [13].

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: Volume Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates market sentiment and liquidity by analyzing trading volume trends[12][69] **Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[12][69] - **Model Name**: Low Volatility Model **Construction Idea**: This model focuses on identifying periods of low market volatility to predict potential market movements[12][69] **Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[12][69] - **Model Name**: Institutional Feature Model (Top Trader Board) **Construction Idea**: This model leverages institutional trading patterns and top trader board data to assess market sentiment[12][69] **Evaluation**: The model currently signals a neutral stance for the short term[12][69] - **Model Name**: Feature Volume Model **Construction Idea**: This model analyzes specific volume features to predict market trends[12][69] **Evaluation**: The model currently signals a bearish stance for the short term[12][69] - **Model Name**: Smart Index Models (CSI 300 and CSI 500) **Construction Idea**: These models use machine learning algorithms to analyze the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices for predictive insights[12][69] **Evaluation**: The CSI 300 model signals neutrality, while the CSI 500 model signals a bullish stance for the short term[12][69] - **Model Name**: Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the frequency and distribution of limit-up and limit-down events to gauge market momentum[13][70] **Evaluation**: The model signals a bullish stance for the mid-term[13][70] - **Model Name**: Calendar Effect Model **Construction Idea**: This model incorporates seasonal and calendar-based patterns to predict market movements[13][70] **Evaluation**: The model signals a neutral stance for the mid-term[13][70] - **Model Name**: Long-Term Momentum Model **Construction Idea**: This model identifies long-term trends in market momentum across broad-based indices[14][71] **Evaluation**: The model signals neutrality for all broad-based indices in the long term[14][71] - **Model Name**: A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model **Construction Idea**: This composite model integrates multiple short, mid, and long-term signals to provide an overall market outlook[15][72] **Evaluation**: The model signals a bearish stance for the A-share market[15][72] - **Model Name**: A-Share Comprehensive National Index 2000 Model **Construction Idea**: This model focuses on the National Index 2000, combining various signals for a comprehensive analysis[15][72] **Evaluation**: The model signals a neutral stance for the A-share market[15][72] - **Model Name**: Hong Kong Market Turnover-to-Volatility Model **Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the Hong Kong market by analyzing the ratio of turnover to volatility[16][73] **Evaluation**: The model signals a bullish stance for the mid-term[16][73] Model Backtesting Results - **Volume Model**: Neutral signal, no specific backtesting results provided[12][69] - **Low Volatility Model**: Neutral signal, no specific backtesting results provided[12][69] - **Institutional Feature Model**: Neutral signal, no specific backtesting results provided[12][69] - **Feature Volume Model**: Bearish signal, no specific backtesting results provided[12][69] - **Smart Index Models**: CSI 300 (Neutral), CSI 500 (Bullish), no specific backtesting results provided[12][69] - **Limit-Up/Limit-Down Model**: Bullish signal, no specific backtesting results provided[13][70] - **Calendar Effect Model**: Neutral signal, no specific backtesting results provided[13][70] - **Long-Term Momentum Model**: Neutral signal, no specific backtesting results provided[14][71] - **A-Share Comprehensive Weapon V3 Model**: Bearish signal, no specific backtesting results provided[15][72] - **A-Share Comprehensive National Index 2000 Model**: Neutral signal, no specific backtesting results provided[15][72] - **Hong Kong Market Turnover-to-Volatility Model**: Bullish signal, no specific backtesting results provided[16][73]