◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 微信小店：微信小店发布 2025 私域激励计划，产业链有望受益。微 信小店官网发布 2025 年私域激励计划，通过分享、公众号、小程序 场景产生的交易订单，技术服务费减免至 1%，再以电商成长卡形式 最高激励 0.4%；通过预约通知场景产生的交易订单，技术服务费将 激励等额的电商成长卡。单个账号单月最高可获 15 万点电商成长卡 奖励。活动时间为 1 月 1 日至 3 月 31 日。 传媒 行业研究/行业周报 微信小店发布私域激励计划，2025 年元旦票房破 3 亿 ——传媒行业周报（2024.12.30-2025.1.3） 影视院线：2024 年全年电影票房 425.02 亿元 2025 电影元旦档票房 破 3 亿元，相关板块有望受益。据国家电影局统计，2024 年全年电 影票房 425.02 亿元。其中，国产影片票房为 334.39 亿元，占比为 78.68%。全年票房过亿元影片共 79 部，其中国产影片 55 部。据网络 平台数据显示，截至 1 月 1 日 21 时 21 分，2025 元旦档票房破 3 亿 元。今年元旦期间，不少人选择走进电影院，和家人朋友一起 ...

——12 月社零数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 2024 年 12 月社零同比增长 3.7%，增速环比增长 0.7pct。据国家统计局， 12 月份，社会消费品零售总额 45172 亿元，同比增长 3.7%，高于 wind 一 致预期的 3.49%，增速环比增长 0.7pct。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售 额 437581 亿元，增长 3.8%，增速环比增长 1.7pct。我们认为，随着一系 列扩内需促消费政策发力显效，以及双十二大促和部分平台年货节的提前 开卖，12 月消费数据增势较好。考虑到 25 年促消费政策持续推进，冰雪 消费等消费新场景、新业态稳步拓展，叠加寒假、春节带动的消费需求提 升，市场总体将延续稳定恢复态势。 纺织服饰 行业研究/行业点评 12 月社零同比+3.7%，政策支持品类表现亮眼，化妆品、服饰 类零售数据回升 从渠道看，线上消费呈现韧性，实体店铺稳步改善。据推算，12 月实物 商品网上零售额 12757 亿元，占社零总额的 28.2%，线下零售总额 32415 亿元，占比 71.8%。2024 年全国网上零售额 155225 亿元，比上年增长 7.2%。其中，实物商品网上零售额 130816 ...

电力设备 行业研究/行业点评 UFLPA 名单更新，新增 5 家光伏企业 ◼ 核心观点 根据盖锡新能源，1 月 14 日，美国国土安全部宣布将 39 家中国企业 列入 UFLPA 实体清单，自 1 月 15 日起生效。被列入清单的企业主要 分布在新能源、棉纺织和有色金属等行业。大部分企业位于特定地区， 少数企业位于浙江、福建、内蒙古等其他省、自治区。其中有 3 家企 业因所谓用工问题被列入清单，有 35 家企业因所谓原料采购问题被 列入清单，有 1 家企业同时因用工问题和所谓原料采购问题被列入清 单。 更新的 UFLPA 的名单里包含 5 家光伏企业，分别为东海晶澳、弘元 绿能、江苏美科、包头美科、双良硅材。上述光伏企业被美国禁止进 口的理由是其硅料均来自于新疆。 根据 SMM 数据，2022 年 6 月 21 日，美国 UFLPA 正式实施。该法案 指向所有新疆产品以及与新疆有关的政府扶贫项目或帮扶项目下的所 有产品都是通过所谓强迫劳动制造的。因此供应链每个环节包含新疆 成分的产品都无法出口至美国 多轮贸易政策限制中国企业光伏产品出口。根据 PV Infolink，除了 UFLPA 政策对中国企业出口进行限 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 3.5 to 3.7 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.39% to 54.76% [1] - The company is projected to turn a profit in 2024, with a net profit forecast of 0.55 to 0.75 billion yuan, compared to a loss of approximately 0.93 billion yuan in 2023 [2] - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 17.48% in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 3.41 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The demand for advanced packaging driven by AI is expected to benefit the company significantly, as it has developed various advanced packaging technologies [3] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mild recovery, which is expected to enhance the company's production capacity and market share [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company achieved revenue of approximately 2.39 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected revenue of 3.63 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth rate of 51.7% [6] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 0.66 billion yuan, with further growth projected to 2.52 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.29 billion yuan in 2026 [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.16 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.62 yuan in 2025 and 1.29 yuan in 2026 [4][6] Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a primary supplier for many SoC clients in the domestic market, which is expected to enhance its market share as demand for AI-related chips increases [3] - The company is actively expanding its product lines in wafer-level packaging and automotive electronics, which is anticipated to contribute to rapid revenue growth in 2024 [3]

传媒 行业研究/行业点评 多部热门电影上映，春节档票房有望超过去年 ——传媒行业点评报告 ◼ 事件 据浙江在线报道，春节档已定档七部，其中有四部真人电影《唐探 1900》《封神第二部：战火西岐》《射雕英雄传：侠之大者》《蛟龙行 动》，两部动画电影《熊出没·重启未来》《哪吒之魔童闹海》，还有 最新定档的恐怖片《祭屋》。 核心观点 2024 年电影票房下滑。据中国消费者报报道，国家电影局发布的数 据显示，我国 2024 年电影总票房为 425.02 亿元，同比减少 22.7%； 观影总人数为 10.1亿人次，同比减少 23.1%。数据显示，2024年电影 上座率从 2023 年的 8.3%降至 5.8%，年度日均票房降至 1.16 亿元。 精品电影数量减少是电影票房下降的主要原因之一。据中国消费者 报报道，2023 年 10亿元票房以上电影有 12部，2024年只有 7部。电 影市场的走弱还与短剧、短视频兴起等市场挑战有关。 2025年春节档多部重磅 IP电影上映。据重庆商报报道，《蛟龙行动》 前作在 2018 年春节档《红海行动》上映，最终累计票房 36.52亿元。 "唐探"系列片前三部累计票房达到 87.44 ...

湖南裕能(301358) 公司研究/公司点评 磷酸铁锂龙头，产品高端盈利显著 ——湖南裕能首次覆盖报告 ◼ 核心观点 公司主营磷酸铁锂，份额位居行业第一。湖南裕能成立于 2016 年，总 部位于湖南省湘潭市，公司产品以磷酸铁锂为主，于 2023 年 2 月 9 日 A 股上市。2023 年公司收入约 413.6 亿元，同比-3.35%，归母净利润 约 15.8 亿元，同比-47.44%，磷酸铁锂销量约 50.7 万吨，同比+56.49%。 据 SMM，2023 年湖南裕能市场份额 27%，位居行业第一。 下游需求提升，公司绑定龙头受益。磷酸铁锂正极的直接客户为锂电 池企业，下游需求主要包括动力和储能两大类。据 EV Tank，预计 2030 年全球新能源汽车销量约 4700 万辆，2024-2030 复合增速 CAGR 约 17%，预计 2030 年全球储能电池出货量约 1398GWh，2023-2030 复合 增速 CAGR 约 30%。公司绑定核心客户宁德时代、比亚迪等，将受益 于行业需求提升。 公司产品谱系全，高端产品受到客户认可。公司产品谱系包括 CN-3、 CN-5B、YN-5、YN-7、YN-9， ...

Investment Rating - Tencent Holdings maintains a "Buy" rating [4] Core Views - The inclusion of Tencent in the 1260H list by the US Department of Defense has limited direct impact on the company's operations [2] - The 1260H list does not authorize any direct restrictions on the listed companies, but indirect effects in financing and supply chain areas should be monitored [2] - There is a possibility that Tencent could be added to the NS-CMIC list, which would restrict US entities from trading its securities [3] - Tencent may face supply chain challenges due to potential classification as a "military end-user" under US export control regulations [3] - Historical precedents suggest that Tencent could potentially be removed from the 1260H list through appeals, as seen with Xiaomi in 2021 [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from CNY 609,015 million in 2023 to CNY 795,437 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.24% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 115,216 million in 2023 to CNY 216,284 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.45% [6] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from CNY 12.19 in 2023 to CNY 23.45 in 2026 [6] - The P/E ratio is expected to decline from 22.65x in 2023 to 16.41x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [6] Financial Ratios and Performance - Gross margin is projected to improve from 48.13% in 2023 to 55.18% in 2026 [12] - Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 14.25% in 2023 to 17.78% in 2024, before slightly declining to 16.33% in 2026 [12] - The debt-to-asset ratio is forecasted to decrease from 44.61% in 2023 to 38.12% in 2026, reflecting a stronger balance sheet [12] - The current ratio is expected to improve from 1.47 in 2023 to 2.43 in 2026, indicating better liquidity [12] Market and Industry Context - Tencent's stock price closed at HKD 409.40, with a 12-month price range of HKD 257.97 to HKD 482.40 [7] - The company's market capitalization stands at HKD 3,724.8 billion [7] - Tencent's performance is compared to the Hang Seng Tech Index, with a recent underperformance of -17.00% [9]

证券研究报告 2025年1月6日 行业：家用电器 增持（维持） 景气延续，拾级而上 ——2025年家用电器行业投资策略 分析师：吴东炬 E-mail: wudongju@yongxingsec.com SAC编号： S1760524060001 主要观点 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 ◼ 内销层面，25年以旧换新政策有望继续实施，有望撬动更新需求持续释放，叠加地产 端有望继续回暖，预计25年内销整体实现稳健增长；去年政策有效推动结构升级均价 提升，预计今年产品升级、均价提升趋势将得到延续，高端品牌有望受益；此外，建 议关注25年国补品类扩容方向。 ◼ 出口层面，25年开年白电尤其是空调出口排产继续向好，虽然存在北美潜在关税以及 整体出口存在一定基数压力等因素，但在北美需求有望提振、新兴市场需求或持续释 放以及汇率承压等因素带动下，预计25年家电出口有望展现韧性。 ◼ 家电板块建议关注：海尔智家、美的集团、格力电器、华帝股份、老板电器、石头科 技、飞科电器。 ◼ 风险提示：国内政策不及预期、海外需求不及预期、关税汇率运费不及预期 目录/Contents 01 02 03 04 05 内外销齐发力，板块显著跑赢 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Views - The company is a leading integrated pharmaceutical group in China, with a dual-driven model of commercial and industrial operations. It has a strong presence in both pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution, producing around 700 drug varieties and serving as the second-largest national pharmaceutical distributor [1][15]. - The company has seen steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 209.63 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.14%, and a net profit of 4.05 billion yuan, up 6.78% year-on-year [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a national leader in pharmaceutical distribution and has a comprehensive product portfolio across various therapeutic areas, including oncology and cardiovascular diseases [1][15]. - It has a robust distribution network covering 31 provinces and regions in China, with over 70,000 medical institutions served [15][20]. 2. Commercial Operations - The commercial segment is the company's core, with significant growth in its CSO (Contract Sales Organization) business, achieving a sales amount of approximately 6.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 176.3% [2][42]. - The company is actively expanding into non-pharmaceutical sectors, including medical devices and health foods, with a reported sales growth of 11.9% in its health device business [2][43]. 3. Industrial Operations - The industrial segment has shown strong capabilities, with a focus on innovation and a pipeline of 60 new drug projects, including 46 innovative drugs [3][60]. - The company has increased its R&D investment significantly, from 1.39 billion yuan in 2018 to 2.6 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a commitment to innovation [3][56]. 4. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 281.57 billion, 308.36 billion, and 338.59 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 5.04 billion, 5.59 billion, and 6.31 billion yuan, indicating a strong growth trajectory [4][13]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing concentration in the pharmaceutical distribution industry and the rapid growth of its innovative business segments [4][39].

◼ 核心观点 国内钙钛矿企业在钙钛矿单结和叠层电池效率上、柔性钙钛矿组件、 GW 线等方面均陆续取得突破。 根据协鑫光电，公司于 2024 年底完成近 5 亿元 C1 轮融资，融资由金 石投资领投，昆高新集团、红杉中国等机构共同参投。2025 年新年伊 始，公司刷新全球大尺寸钙钛矿组件光电转换效率记录——2048cm² 钙钛矿单结组件光电转化效率突破 22.43%。 根据脉络能源，公司 100MW 钙钛矿光伏组件生产线于 2024 年 11 月 实现首片组件下线。脉络能源 1.2x1.6m2 的钙钛矿光伏组件在标准测 试条件下输出功率超过 336W，全面积转换效率达到 17.5%。另外，公 司已经实现全球面积最大的一体化成型柔性钙钛矿光伏组件在 100 MW 级钙钛矿光伏组件生产线成功下线，组件面积为 1.2x1.6 平米， 质量约为 2.04 千克。 根据捷泰科技，2024 年 12 月，公司自主研发的 TOPCon/钙钛矿叠层 电池转换效率成功突破 31.0%。 电力设备 行业研究/行业点评 钙钛矿产业化进展加速 根据纤纳光电，2024 年 11 月 29 日，钙钛矿α叠层组件成功出货三峡 能源 50MW ...