2025 年 7 月 24 日 行业研究/行业周报 非银行金融行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 李明阳 执业登记编码：S0760525050002 邮箱：limingyang@sxzq.com 孙田田 执业登记编码：S0760518030001 电话：0351-8686900 邮箱：suntiantian@sxzq.com 刘丽 执业登记编码：S0760511050001 电话：0351--8686985 邮箱：liuli2@sxzq.com 风险提示 【山证非银行金融】科创板改革配套规 则发布，券商上半年业绩预喜-行业周报 （20250707-20250713）： 2025.7.16 【山证非银行金融】程序化交易细则实 施 ， 行 业 多 项 排 名 出 台 - 行 业 周 报 （20250630-20250706） 2025.7.9 非银行金融 行业周报（20250714-20250720） 领先大市-A(维持) 券商上半年业绩预喜，北交所执业质量评价公布 投资要点 券商估值及业绩支撑性较强。截至 7 月 20 日，26 家上市券商 公布业绩预告，归母净利润增速均超过 40%，其中，24 家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "B" for the new materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The new materials sector has shown an upward trend, with the new materials index increasing by 1.37%, although it underperformed compared to the ChiNext index, which rose by 1.81% [2]. - The report highlights the implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the new energy vehicle industry, which are expected to enhance the profitability of companies within the supply chain [4]. - The forecast for new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is projected to reach 16 million units, representing a year-on-year growth of 24.26%, indicating sustained growth in the industry [4]. Market Performance - The new materials sector experienced a weekly increase, with notable performances in various sub-sectors: synthetic biology index up by 4.18%, semiconductor materials up by 0.81%, electronic chemicals up by 1.10%, biodegradable plastics up by 1.74%, industrial gases up by 3.16%, and battery chemicals up by 1.45% [2][16]. - The overall market performance for the week (July 14-18, 2025) showed the CSI 300 index rising by 1.09%, the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.69%, and the ChiNext index by 3.17% [12]. Price Tracking - The report provides a weekly price tracking of various chemical products, including amino acids, biodegradable plastics, industrial gases, and vitamins, indicating stable prices for many products with slight fluctuations [3][11]. - For instance, the price of valine is reported at 14,400 RMB/ton with a weekly increase of 0.35%, while arginine is at 24,500 RMB/ton with a decrease of 2.00% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Jun Ding Da, Times New Materials, Prit, and Nanjing Julong, which are expected to benefit from the favorable policies and market conditions [5].

Group 1: Industry Overview - The report highlights that a new round of "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" is about to be released, which will accelerate capacity structure optimization in the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on cyclical recovery and supply-side optimization [6] - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost investment opportunities in various segments of the chemical industry, particularly in civil explosives, all-steel tires, cement, and specialty chemicals [6] - The TDI market is experiencing upward price pressure due to Covestro's forced production halt following an electrical fire, with TDI prices rising to 14,913 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30.82% increase compared to the previous month [6] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the chemical sector such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Juhua Co., Haohua Technology, Longbai Group, Yangnong Chemical, Hubei Yihua, and Tongyi Zhong [6] - In the civil explosives and all-steel tire sectors, companies like Sailun Tire, Linglong Tire, and Wind God Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [6] - The report emphasizes the growth potential of the unmanned mining truck market, with a projected sales penetration rate increasing from approximately 6% in 2024 to over 50% by 2030, indicating explosive growth [10][12] Group 3: Market Trends - The report notes that the domestic market for unmanned mining trucks is entering a rapid scaling phase, with a compound annual growth rate of 305.8% expected from 2022 to 2024 [10] - The global market for unmanned mining solutions is projected to grow from 700 million USD in 2024 to 8.1 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 51.0% [12] - The report indicates that traditional mining trucks are in a highly competitive field, with major international players holding over 90% of the market share, presenting a significant opportunity for domestic companies to replace traditional models with unmanned solutions [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the basic chemical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming "Ten Key Industries Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" will accelerate the optimization of production capacity structure in the chemical industry, suggesting a focus on the cyclical recovery and supply-side optimization of the chemical sector [2][12]. - The opening of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to significantly boost investment opportunities in various sub-sectors of the chemical industry, particularly in civil explosives, all-steel tires, cement, and specialty chemicals [3][13]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on leading companies with "absolute cost advantages" or "absolute technical scarcity" in the supply-side optimization process [12]. Summary by Relevant Sections Chemical Market - The report emphasizes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will promote structural adjustments and the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials [12]. - It suggests that the supply-side optimization should focus on leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Juhua Co., which have strong competitive advantages [12]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - Wanhua Chemical (600309.SH) - Buy-B - Hualu Hengsheng (600426.SH) - Buy-B - Juhua Co. (600160.SH) - Buy-B - Haohua Technology (600378.SH) - Buy-B - Longbai Group (002601.SZ) - Buy-B - Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH) - Buy-B - Hubei Yihua (000422.SZ) - Increase-B - Tongyi Zhong (688722.SH) - Buy-A [2][3][25]. Price Movements - As of July 18, TDI prices reached 14,913 yuan/ton, reflecting a significant increase of 30.82% compared to the previous month [4][14]. - The report notes that the basic chemical sector has shown varied performance, with synthetic resins and membrane materials leading in gains [20][21]. Key Company Performances - The report highlights that Hubei Yihua, Jujiao Co., and Wanhua Chemical saw notable increases in their stock prices, while companies like Ruifeng New Materials and Yaji International experienced declines [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an industry investment rating of "Leading the Market-A" for the truck industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [11]. Core Insights - The truck industry has experienced significant growth, particularly in the segment of autonomous mining trucks, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 300% in revenue over the past three years for the company Easy Control Intelligent Driving [5]. - The demand for autonomous mining trucks is expected to surge, with sales penetration projected to rise from approximately 6% in 2024 to over 50% by 2030, reflecting explosive growth in the market [7]. - The global market for autonomous mining solutions is anticipated to grow from $700 million in 2024 to $8.1 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 51% [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that Easy Control Intelligent Driving has deployed over 1,400 autonomous mining trucks across 24 mining sites, with significant partnerships with leading companies in the industry [5]. - The company’s revenue for 2022, 2023, and 2024 is projected to be 59.917 million yuan, 271 million yuan, and 986 million yuan, respectively, showcasing a robust growth trajectory [5]. Competitive Landscape - The traditional mining truck market is characterized by intense competition, dominated by major players such as Caterpillar and Komatsu, which hold over 90% of the global market share [6]. - The shift towards autonomous mining trucks presents a substantial opportunity for domestic companies to replace traditional models, driven by advancements in technology and the push for smart manufacturing [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the large-capacity, efficient, and low-energy consumption of new energy autonomous mining trucks will create numerous growth opportunities as their market penetration increases [7]. - Key companies to watch in this sector include Easy Control Intelligent Driving, Xidi Intelligent Driving, and Northern Shares [7].

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,581.86, up by 0.62% [2] - The agricultural sector underperformed slightly with a decline of 0.14% in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4] Agricultural Sector Insights - The report highlights a favorable investment opportunity in Haida Group, driven by expected recovery in the feed industry as upstream raw material prices stabilize and downstream farming conditions improve [4] - Recent data indicates a decline in pig prices, with average prices in key provinces showing a decrease of 4.88% in Sichuan and Guangdong, while the average pork price increased by 0.29% [4] - The report discusses the cyclical nature of the pig industry, emphasizing that the current market may be overly pessimistic regarding the impact of rising pig production capacity on profitability [4] - Recommendations include companies like Wen's Foodstuffs, Shennong Group, and New Hope, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the pig farming sector [4] Poultry and Pet Food Industry - The poultry sector is projected to see performance driven by new demand recovery in 2025, with Shennong Development positioned well for growth [4] - The pet food market is highlighted as a key area for growth in 2025, with a focus on brands that are leading in profitability and market trends, recommending Guibao Pet Food as a top pick [4] Textile and Apparel Sector - Nine Star Holdings reported a revenue increase of 2.9% in Q2 2025, with footwear manufacturing also showing growth [6][8] - The report notes that the sports apparel segment is experiencing robust demand, with brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning showing varied performance in retail sales [10] - Recommendations for the textile sector include companies with strong mid-year performance certainty, such as Bailong Oriental and Zhejiang Natural [10] Jewelry Sector - The gold and jewelry retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 6.1% in June 2025, indicating stable demand [10] - Companies like Laoputang and Chaohongji are recommended for their potential recovery based on channel scale and franchise resources [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the textile and apparel industry [1]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry has shown a steady performance with a year-on-year revenue growth of 2.9% for Q2 2025, driven by the collaboration between Ciele Athletics and Tabo [2][5]. - The overall retail sales in June 2025 increased by 4.8% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand in the market, although growth rates for major consumer categories have slowed down [2][44]. - The report highlights the resilience of the luxury goods sector, with Richemont's sales growing by 3% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in the jewelry segment [63]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the company reported an unaudited revenue of $444 million, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with the footwear manufacturing segment contributing $433 million, also up by 2.5% [15]. - The total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached $775 million, reflecting a 0.7% year-on-year growth [15]. Market Dynamics - The SW textile and apparel sector saw a slight increase of 0.24% in the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, while the SW light industry manufacturing sector rose by 0.08% [16]. - The textile manufacturing sub-sector increased by 2.43%, while the apparel and home textile sub-sector rose by 0.29% [16]. Industry Data Tracking - In the first half of 2025, China's textile and apparel exports amounted to $705.19 billion and $734.59 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a slight decline of 0.2%, respectively [37]. - The retail sales of gold and silver jewelry grew by 6.1% year-on-year in June 2025, indicating robust demand in the jewelry market [44]. Consumer Behavior - The report notes that online retail channels performed slightly better than the overall retail market, with a 6.0% year-on-year growth in online sales of physical goods in the first half of 2025 [43]. - The demand for sports and entertainment products remains strong, with a year-on-year growth of 22.2% in the first half of 2025 [44].

Core Insights - The report highlights the evolving dynamics of the U.S. economy, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation, with June CPI data reflecting these influences. The overall market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path remain stable, with anticipated rate cuts in September and December [6][7]. Market Trends - Domestic market indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,559.79, up 0.72%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 11,007.49, up 0.86% [4]. - In the U.S. market, major indices exhibited mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly down by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.51% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.59% [6]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The report notes a decline in initial jobless claims to 221,000, continuing a five-week downward trend. The June CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 2.67%, up from 2.38%, indicating a rebound influenced by tariffs, particularly in used car prices and imported goods [6][7]. - The analysis suggests limited further increases in tariffs due to insufficient economic fundamentals to absorb negative impacts, with expectations that the inflationary effects of tariffs will diminish by the third quarter [6]. Currency and Credit Dynamics - The report discusses the historical evolution of the U.S. dollar's credit anchor, transitioning from the gold standard to a debt-driven economy, highlighting the challenges faced by the dollar in maintaining its value amidst increasing debt and geopolitical uncertainties [9][10]. - Short-term outlook for the dollar indicates a weak and volatile trend, with potential for structural depreciation in the medium term due to diverging monetary policies and fiscal sustainability concerns [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with expectations of foreign capital inflows boosting stock prices, particularly in domestic demand-driven sectors. Bonds are expected to benefit from a rebalancing of dollar assets [10]. - The report emphasizes the continued importance of gold as an investment, recommending accumulation during price corrections, supported by factors such as a weak dollar and central bank demand for diversification [10].

Group 1: Historical Evolution of the Dollar's Credit Anchor - The dollar's rise was initially supported by gold, with the U.S. holding 62% of global gold reserves by 1945[1] - The Bretton Woods system (1944-1973) faced challenges due to the Triffin dilemma, leading to a collapse of the gold-dollar peg[2] - The transition to the petrodollar system (1973-2008) created a credit loop of "oil-dollar-U.S. debt," but also exposed vulnerabilities during financial crises[3] Group 2: Current Trends and Future Outlook - In the short term (within 1 year), the dollar is expected to experience weak fluctuations, primarily due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[4] - The medium-term (1-3 years) outlook indicates a structural depreciation of the dollar, driven by fiscal sustainability concerns and diversification trends[5] - Long-term (over 3 years), the dollar's share is projected to align more closely with economic strength, with a shift towards a multipolar currency system[6] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Emerging market equities and bonds are becoming increasingly attractive, with foreign capital inflows likely to boost domestic demand-driven stocks[7] - Gold remains a strong asset allocation choice, supported by weak dollar pricing, central bank demand, and geopolitical risk premiums[8] - Risks include potential deterioration in global liquidity and unexpected advancements in AI technology impacting financial markets[9]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the leading position of the company in the linear drive sector, emphasizing its over 20 years of experience and technological expertise in the industry [5] - The company is expanding into the robotics market, establishing a joint venture to focus on core components for robotic applications, which is expected to drive future growth [5] - The report projects significant profit growth for the company, with net profits expected to reach 467 million, 560 million, and 667 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 65.5%, 20.0%, and 19.1% respectively [5] Market Trends - The linear drive products are increasingly being adopted across various sectors, including smart offices, smart homes, healthcare, industrial automation, and automotive intelligence, driven by rising demand and technological advancements [5] - The smart office market is expected to grow due to the increasing penetration of height-adjustable desks and a growing awareness of health among office workers [5] - The global smart home market is expanding rapidly, fueled by advancements in AI technology and increasing consumer demand for convenience and safety [5] Company Developments - The company has initiated a research and development plan for humanoid robots, successfully creating prototypes of linear actuators for joint movements [5] - A joint venture with Lingqiao Intelligent has been established to focus on the development and production of robotic hands and joint modules, indicating a strategic move towards diversification [5] - The company’s global presence includes subsidiaries and production bases in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, serving thousands of customers across over 100 countries [5]