2026 年 2 月 6 日 节前市场情绪谨慎，关注红利及低估值股机会，节后关注优质成长标的 分析师：惠祥凤 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 【A 股大势研判】 周四沪深三大指数缩量调整。盘面上看，贵金属板块领跌，科技板块则跟随 外围走势继续调整。与此形成对比的是，以酿酒、餐饮旅游为代表的大消费板块 表现坚挺，银行股全线飘红，与券商等权重共同构成了市场的维稳力量。市场分 化，表明市场的调整并非系统性风险释放，而是一场结构再平衡。 近期资金涌入白酒、银行等高确定性、防御性板块寻求庇护，这些板块的上 涨在一定程度上对冲了市场的下行压力，维系了指数的稳定。然而，这种维稳力 量本质上是存量资金避险驱动的结果，而非进攻性行情的前奏。市场整体成交呈 现降温态势，资金观望情绪浓厚，并未形成具有号召力的新主线。题材股受压， 市场赚钱效应仅局限于少数防御板块，多数个股下跌，显示市场情绪谨慎。 短期来看，春节临近将进一步加大资金的避险情绪，市场或难以走出趋势性 行情，机会将以快速的个股博弈和结构性轮动为主。春节前后的市场风格大概率 将呈现"节前求稳，节后重弹"的节奏特征。节前，在避险情绪与稳健配置需求 主导下 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 春节前后 A 股或将呈现"节前求稳，节后重弹"风格特征 分析师：惠祥凤 当前风格向红利板块倾斜有其内在逻辑：一方面，市场经历前期整体降温后， 风险偏好下降，资金出于避险需求，自然流向估值低位、盈利稳定且股息率高的 板块，推动其修复补涨；另一方面，春节长假临近，内外围不确定性使得追求稳 健成为短期共识，红利板块的防御属性凸显吸引力。 不过，今年春节时间较晚，节后一周将迎来两会召开，历史经验表明，两会 前后市场风险偏好通常提升，更有利于小盘股表现；另外，节后回流资金，也将 为小盘风格提供增量支撑。 因此，春节前后的市场风格大概率将呈现"节前求稳，节后重弹"的节奏特 征。节前，在避险情绪与稳健配置需求主导下，红利及低估值大盘板块的修复行 情有望延续。节后，随着两会政策窗口开启、市场风险偏好回升以及资金流向变 化，市场焦点可能重新转向小盘成长与具备明确产业催化的题材方向。 对于投资者而言，应对当前震荡轮动市的关键在于踏准节奏。操作上可兼顾 稳健与弹性：节前可关注红利板块的配置价值，把握其估值修复机会；同时为节 后布局做好准备，积极关注有 ...

金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 市场大跌后迎来强劲反弹，量能未能同步放大，后续修复过程或有震荡 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一 A 股市场大跌，周二市场并未延续跌势，尽管早盘一度下探，午后却迎 来强势反弹，三大指数全线探底回升，上演 V 型反转。盘面上，船舶制造、航天 航空等军工股走强，光伏、AI 应用、化工等多个方向同步活跃，有色金属板块也 迎来探底回升。不过，成交量未能同步放大，可能后续市场修复过程还有震荡。 我们认为，即便短期有震荡，也不改中期向好格局。 展望 2026 年：市场中枢抬升（大概率是"牛市第三阶段"），波动可能加大， 风格趋向均衡，紧跟《"十五五"规划建议》及后续增量政策导向。操作上，战略 上看，对于 2024 年以来已经重仓的投资者，慢牛持仓待涨或冲高后维持净卖出 是高概率获胜的策略。对于估值过高、纯粹概念炒作的股票，或涨幅巨大、趋势 开始走弱的龙头，建议逢高适度兑现收益。对于估值合理、业绩确定性强的优质 标的（有实际业绩或未来业绩支撑的标的），可趁回调机会逢低布局。新入场者 系好止损安全带，逢低布局莫追高，重点挖掘结构性机会。 执业 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 3 日 多重利空导致 A 股下跌，需耐心等待市场企稳 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 对于市场的下跌，投资者无需过分悲观，也不能掉以轻心，需理性看待市场 波动，区分短期回调与长期趋势。趋势上，需耐心等待，待市场情绪企稳、资金 流动性改善、基本面出现明确利好后，再逐步加大布局力度。 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周一晨报提醒，短期来看，成交量逐步萎缩，市场资金观望情绪浓厚。随着 春节临近，市场资金面可能出现季节性收紧，结构性博弈或是主基调。市场走势 如我们预期，周一沪深三大指数全线走低，贵金属、有色金属板块领跌，与之形 成对比的是，特高压、酿酒等板块表现活跃，成为少数亮点。 纵观周一市场下跌，其导火索可追溯至上周五外盘贵金属市场的大幅波动， 直接影响了大宗商品市场，进而传导至 A 股相关板块。从触发因素来看，沃什将 被任命为新美联储主席引发市场对全球流动性政策的重新预判，国内外期货交易 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 2 月 2 日 节前结构性机会或是主基调 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 上周五 A 股上演深 V 行情。早盘三大指数集体下挫，但随后买盘力量逐步显 现，指数自低点回升，创业板指率先翻红并一度拉升，沪指与深成指虽未完全收 复失地，但跌幅显著收窄，4100 点关键位置失而复得，说明市场多空力量的激烈 博弈。盘面上看，CPO、光通信模块等概念股大涨，农业板块全天强势，贵金属 及有色金属板块大幅回调。 回顾近期市场表现不难发现，当前市场正经历一轮明显的题材轮动过程，从 前期的科技题材炒作，到后期权重股的补涨，市场热点切换频繁，赚钱效应减弱。 目前 A 股市场整体处于降温周期中，虽然支撑市场中期向好的核心逻辑并未发生 改变——国内政策与资金双利好持续加持等积极因素仍在发挥作用，但短期来 看，成交量逐步萎缩，市场资金观望情绪浓厚。随着春节临近，市场资金面可能 出现季节性收紧，结构性博弈或是主基调。 展望 2026 年：市场中枢抬 ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 地产和白酒等板块上涨，踏准板块轮动节奏 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50、沪深 300 指数的反弹节奏布局优质标的。市场 走势如我们预期，周三沪指、上证 50、沪深 300 指数上涨，周四沪深 300、上涨 50 指数大涨。周四晨报提醒，可逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、地产等 板块，顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待。市场走势如我们预期，周四 A 股三大 指数涨跌不一。盘面上看，板块轮动节奏加快，房地产、稀土等板块同步发力， 白酒、券商板块先后补涨，但近期持续活跃的半导体板块则陷入调整，市场热点 呈现新旧交替特征。 市场轮动至当前阶段，背后或蕴含着双重逻辑：一方面，涨幅落后、估值偏 低的板块具备天然的修复动力，资金从高位热门赛道逐步撤离，转向低估值领域， 推动板块轮动加大；另一方面，前期强势的热门板块经过持续上涨后，需要时间 消化获利盘，进入阶段性休整，这也为低位板块腾出了资金空间。 从市场表现来看，上证 50 等权重指数此前经历调整后逐步企稳，发挥着托 底市场的作用，使得大盘整体保持稳定， ...

英大证券研究所证券研究报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 顺周期板块后续表现或仍值得期待 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 当前大宗商品的轮动行情契合"避险资产、工业需求、能源传导、民生终端" 的路径。2025 年至今，贵金属率先开启牛市，成为周期行情的先行者；随后工业 金属接棒，铜价创下历史新高，碳酸锂上演 V 型反转，背后是新能源、AI 算力等 新兴产业的刚性需求与供给端约束的共振。如今有色板块的上涨，正是这一轮动 逻辑的中期演绎，而按照传导顺序，能源化工与煤炭或将承接行情扩散。 在全球流动性宽松预期下，随着反内卷政策持续推进，国内稳增长政策持续 发力，经济供需格局有望改善，复苏预期强化，直接利好对经济敏感的板块，后 续经济数据（如 PPI）若持续改善，将验证复苏逻辑，驱动顺周期板块上行。可 逢低关注稀土、化工、煤炭、有色金属、基建、地产等板块，周期板块后续表现 或仍值得期待。 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 请务必阅读最后一页的免责条款 1 金 点 策 略 晨 报 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 周三晨报提醒，依托上证 50 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for the power energy industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [65] - The total electricity consumption in China reached a historic high of 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [10] - The report highlights significant growth in the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind power, with solar power installations increasing by 33.25% year-on-year [26] Industry Events - In January 2026, the national maximum electricity load exceeded 1.4 billion kilowatts for the first time, driven by increased demand due to extreme weather [11] - Tesla's CEO announced plans to expand solar manufacturing capacity significantly, which is expected to boost solar manufacturing expectations [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 19 to January 25, 2026, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.62%, while the power equipment index rose by 3.57%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.19 percentage points [5][13] - Among the sub-sectors of the power energy industry, photovoltaic processing equipment, photovoltaic auxiliary materials, and wind power components had the highest increases, with respective growth rates of 21.77%, 11.17%, and 7.41% [20] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption was 908 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [23] - The cumulative installed capacity of new power generation from January to November 2025 was 44,557 megawatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.71% [25] New Power System Situation Photovoltaics - As of January 21, 2026, the average price of polysilicon was 54 yuan/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [42] Energy Storage - By the end of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54% [47] Lithium Batteries - As of January 23, 2026, the price of lithium carbonate was 168,000 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 15,000 yuan/ton from the previous week [50] Charging Stations - By the end of December 2025, the total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million, a year-on-year increase of 56.75% [57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][65] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the power energy industry is expected to perform well, with the industry index projected to outperform the CSI 300 index in the next six months [65] - The total electricity consumption in China reached a historic high of 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [10] - The report highlights significant growth in the renewable energy sector, particularly in solar and wind power, with substantial increases in installed capacity [11][12] Industry Events - In January 2026, the maximum electricity load in China broke records, reaching 1.417 billion kilowatts, driven by increased demand due to extreme weather [11] - Tesla's CEO announced plans to expand solar manufacturing capacity significantly, which is expected to boost the solar manufacturing outlook [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 19 to January 25, 2026, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.62%, while the power equipment index rose by 3.57%, outperforming the CSI 300 by 4.19 percentage points [5][13] - Among the 31 first-level industries, the power equipment sector ranked 11th in performance [16] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, total electricity consumption was 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77% [23] - From January to November 2025, the newly added power generation capacity was 44.557 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 40.71% [25][26] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased by 289 hours year-on-year to 2858 hours [33] New Power System Situation Photovoltaics - As of January 21, 2026, the average price of polysilicon was 54 yuan/kg, remaining stable [42] Energy Storage - By the end of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54% [47] Lithium Batteries - As of January 23, 2026, the price of lithium carbonate was 168,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase [50] Charging Infrastructure - By the end of December 2025, the total number of charging facilities in China reached 20.092 million, a year-on-year increase of 56.75% [57]