政策研究报告 证券研究报告 2025年03月13日 主要市场走势图 ● 更加积极有为的财政政策提质增效 扩内需兴科创 稳发展惠民生 2025年两会系列报告之一:政策总量篇 报告要点: ● 事件:2025年3月5日,第十四届全国人大三次会议于北京召开,国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告(以下将上述会议与同期召开的全国政协十四届 三次会议合称为"两会")。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 ● 政策思路有稳有进,客观务实稳定预期 今年的两会政府工作报告中关于宏观经济调控的政策取向仍然与去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的精神保持一致,延续了"稳中求进"总基调,但同时在具体 政策安排上,突破了传统范式,展现出创新与探索。一系列增长预期目标更多 基于当下的国内外局势,综合统筹考虑了可实现性和可持续性。在宏观政策取 向上,除了"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政策"以外,工作报 告首次提出要"强化宏观政策民生导向","推动更多资金资源'投资于人'"。 我们认为,这体现了中央今年逐步转向更加注重扩大就业、促进居民增收减 负、加强消费激励,以推动经济发展与民生改善的良性循 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 政策研究报告 扩内需兴科创 稳发展惠民生 ——2025 年两会系列报告之一：政策总量篇 报告要点： 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人大三次会议于北京召开，国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下将上述会议与同期召开的全国政协十四届 三次会议合称为"两会"）。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 政策思路有稳有进，客观务实稳定预期 今年的两会政府工作报告中关于宏观经济调控的政策取向仍然与去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的精神保持一致，延续了"稳中求进"总基调，但同时在具体 政策安排上，突破了传统范式，展现出创新与探索。一系列增长预期目标更多 基于当下的国内外局势，综合统筹考虑了可实现性和可持续性。在宏观政策取 向上，除了"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政策"以外，工作报 告首次提出要"强化宏观政策民生导向"，"推动更多资金资源'投资于人'"。 我们认为，这体现了中央今年逐步转向更加注重扩大就业、促进居民增收减 负、加强消费激励，以推动经济发展与民生改善的良性循环。从 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 政策研究报告 扩内需兴科创 稳发展惠民生 ——2025 年两会系列报告之一：政策总量篇 报告要点： 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人大三次会议于北京召开，国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告（以下将上述会议与同期召开的全国政协十四届 三次会议合称为"两会"）。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 政策思路有稳有进，客观务实稳定预期 今年的两会政府工作报告中关于宏观经济调控的政策取向仍然与去年 12 月 中央经济工作会议的精神保持一致，延续了"稳中求进"总基调，但同时在具体 政策安排上，突破了传统范式，展现出创新与探索。一系列增长预期目标更多 基于当下的国内外局势，综合统筹考虑了可实现性和可持续性。在宏观政策取 向上，除了"更加积极的财政政策"与"适度宽松的货币政策"以外，工作报 告首次提出要"强化宏观政策民生导向"，"推动更多资金资源'投资于人'"。 我们认为，这体现了中央今年逐步转向更加注重扩大就业、促进居民增收减 负、加强消费激励，以推动经济发展与民生改善的良性循环。从 ...

[Table_Main] 行业研究|可选消费|媒体Ⅱ 证券研究报告 媒体Ⅱ行业周报 2025 年 03 月 12 日 [Table_Title] Manus 引发关注，心动公司业绩亮眼 ——传媒行业周报（2025.3.3-2025.3.9） [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 市场表现 周度涨跌情况（2025.3.3-2025.3.9，下同）：传媒行业（申万）上涨 5.16%，排名子行业第 5 名，同期沪深 300 上涨 1.39%，上证指数涨 1.56%，创业板涨 1.61%，恒生科技指数涨 8.47%。 行业重点数据及动态更新 AI： 2 月，Chatgpt 月活用户数破 4 亿，豆包月活维持国内第一， Deepseek 紧随其后，月活环比增长 83%。字节豆包免费榜排名重回 第二，腾讯元宝下载量环比微降。AI 重点事件：国内方面，"中国首个 AI IDE"字节跳动 Trae 国内版发布；星火 X1 升级，星火一体机等系 列新品发布；智谱发布并开源图像生成模型 CogView4；Monica.im 推 出的全球首款通用型 Al Agent Manus；腾讯混元发布并开源图生视 频模型；阿里开源全新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, specifically highlighting several companies within the sector [5][9]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a weekly increase of 5.16% from March 3 to March 9, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 1.56% and 1.39% respectively [12][17]. - The gaming sector showed strong performance, with top games like "Honor of Kings," "Crossfire: King of Guns," and "Peacekeeper Elite" leading the sales charts [31]. - The film industry reported a total box office of 5.94 billion yuan for the week, with "Nezha: The Devil's Child" dominating the box office [45][46]. Market Performance - The media industry ranked fifth among sub-industries, with advertising and gaming sectors leading the gains at 6.73% and 6.66% respectively [12][15]. - Notable individual stock performances included BlueFocus, Hubei Broadcasting, and Shunwang Technology, which saw increases of 27.05%, 25.48%, and 18.55% respectively [17][18]. Industry Key Data AI Applications - In February, ChatGPT reached over 400 million monthly active users, while the domestic AI app "Doubao" maintained the top position with 81.98 million users, reflecting a 4.28% increase [21][22]. - DeepSeek, another AI application, saw a significant growth of 83.4% in monthly active users, reaching 61.81 million [21][22]. Gaming Data - The top three games in the sales rankings for the week were "Honor of Kings," "Crossfire: King of Guns," and "Peacekeeper Elite," with a new game "Heroes Never Die" performing well in the role-playing category [31][33]. - The gaming sector continues to show resilience, with 35 Chinese companies making it to the global top 100 mobile game publishers in February [36]. Film Data - The weekly box office was led by "Nezha: The Devil's Child," which grossed 3.73 billion yuan, accounting for 62.6% of the total box office for the week [45][46]. - Upcoming films include "John Wick 4" and "True Love Business," which have generated significant anticipation among audiences [48][50].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - On March 12, 2025, the market experienced fluctuations, with the computing power concept gaining strength. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.23%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.17%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.58%. The total market turnover was 1,683.51 billion yuan, an increase of 201.88 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2][14]. Market Performance - The market saw 2,666 stocks rise and 2,587 stocks fall. The performance of various indices ranked as follows: Growth > Stability > Cyclical > 0 > Financial > Consumer; Small-cap Value > Small-cap Growth > Mid-cap Value > Large-cap Growth > Large-cap Value > Mid-cap Growth. The CSI All Share Index outperformed the fund-heavy positions [2][19]. Industry Performance - Among the 30 CITIC first-level industries, the top performers were Media (1.84%), Comprehensive Finance (1.33%), and Communication (1.11%). The laggards included Home Appliances (-0.84%), Coal (-0.80%), and Food & Beverage (-0.78%). Most concept sectors declined, with significant increases in Broadcasting, Digital Watermarking, and Blind Box Economy, while PLC, Aquaculture, and Engineering Machinery saw declines [2][19][23]. Fund Flow Analysis - On March 12, 2025, the main funds experienced a net outflow of 11.935 billion yuan. Specifically, large orders saw a net outflow of 12.615 billion yuan, while small orders continued to see a net inflow of 18.238 billion yuan [3][24]. ETF Fund Flow - On March 12, 2025, the trading volume of major ETFs such as the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF decreased compared to the previous trading day. The trading volumes were 1.493 billion yuan, 2.457 billion yuan, and others, with changes of -184 million yuan and -1.571 billion yuan respectively [3][30]. Global Market Performance - On March 12, 2025, major Asia-Pacific indices closed mixed, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.77% and the Nikkei 225 up 0.07%. European indices also saw declines, with the DAX down 1.29% and the FTSE 100 down 1.21%. The US markets also experienced declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.14% [4][5][34].

[Table_Main] 公司研究|医疗保健|制药、生物科技与生命科学 证券研究报告 爱美客(300896)公司点评报告 2025 年 03 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 拟收购韩国 REGEN，强化再生医美全球化布局 ——爱美客(300896.SZ)公司事件点评 [Table_Summary] 事件： REGEN Biotech 核心产品在海外市场广受认可，并建立了广泛的分销体 系，渠道优势明显，其国际化业务平台将有助于爱美客产品迅速走向国际市 场，提升海外收入；同时标的公司旗下核心产品 AestheFill 市场表现优异， 有望进一步夯实公司在医美注射填充产品市场的优势，助力盈利能力提升。 投资建议与盈利预测 公司是国内医美上游头部企业，我们预计 2024-2026 年公司实现 EPS 为 6.91/8.31/10.00 元，PE29/24/20x，维持"增持"评级。 风险提示 3 月 10 日爱美客发布公告，拟通过爱美客国际以 1.9 亿美元收购韩国 REGEN Biotech，Inc.85%股份。 点评： 爱美客拟以 1.9 亿美元跨境收购韩国 REGEN，开启国际化战略 爱美客全资子公司 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting a price increase of over 15% compared to the benchmark index [5][11]. Core Views - The company plans to acquire 85% of REGEN Biotech, Inc. for $190 million, marking a significant step in its international expansion strategy [2][4]. - REGEN Biotech is recognized for its innovative aesthetic products, particularly AestheFill, which has received approval in 34 countries and regions, enhancing the company's market position [3][4]. - The acquisition is expected to strengthen the company's global presence and improve its profitability through enhanced product offerings and distribution channels [4]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 6.91, 8.31, and 10.00 CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 29, 24, and 20 [5][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 3,247.22 million CNY in 2024 to 4,750.24 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.84% [6][10]. - The net profit is forecasted to increase from 2,091.91 million CNY in 2024 to 3,028.88 million CNY in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting a price increase relative to the benchmark index of over 15% [5][11]. Core Views - The company is set to enhance its international strategy by acquiring 85% of REGEN Biotech, Inc. for $190 million, which is expected to strengthen its global presence in the regenerative aesthetic medicine sector [2][4]. - REGEN Biotech is recognized for its innovative products, including AestheFill, which has received approval in 34 countries and regions, indicating strong market acceptance [3][4]. - The acquisition is anticipated to bolster the company's revenue and profitability, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 6.91, 8.31, and 10.00 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][6]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 1,938.84 million CNY in 2022, with a projected increase to 3,247.22 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.17% [6]. - The net profit for 2022 was 1,263.56 million CNY, expected to rise to 2,091.91 million CNY by 2024, with a net profit margin of approximately 64.42% [6][10]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 25.10% in 2024, indicating strong profitability and efficient use of equity [6][10].

[Table_Main] 行业研究|能源|新能源 证券研究报告 新能源行业周报、月报 2025 年 03 月 11 日 [Table_Title] 3 月排产数据向好，行业涨价信号明确 ——电力设备新能源行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 周度行情回顾 2025 年 03 月 02 日至 03 月 07 日，上证综指上涨 1.56%，深证成指 上涨 2.19%，创业板指上涨 1.61%。其中申万电力设备上涨 1.75%， 较沪深 300 跑赢 0.36pct。细分子行业来看，申万光伏设备/风电设备 /电池/电网设备分别涨 0.05%/3.86%/1.22%/2.44%。 重点板块跟踪 三元锂电池：广汽本田旗下全新纯电车型 P7 核心技术细节曝光，该 车基于本田云驰智能高效纯电架构打造，支持 L2+级辅助驾驶、高精 导航及自动泊车功能，搭载宁德时代定制 90 度三元锂电池，CLTC 续 航最高 650km。 光伏招标：大唐集团招标，标段一采购为 N 型 TOPCon 光伏组件，预 估采购总量 19.5GW，中标候选人 10 位：晶科能源、通威股份、晶澳 太阳能、隆基乐叶、一道新能、正泰新能、阿 ...